We are reaching the point in November where the weather forecast can start to have a major impact on NFL games and fantasy football decisions. Fortunately, it’s not until the very end of the month, or even into December, when we typically start seeing the sweeping impact of the weather, so there is reason for positivity.
Let’s review the NFL weather forecast for the Week 11 slate of games to determine where fantasy managers should be cautious about starting options.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 11 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5:30 a.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-13 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 22 mph
Games in Soldier Field are nearly always intriguing in terms of weather conditions, with wind often prevalent and wet weather and cooler temperatures sometimes coming into play. This week, we have a combination of slightly elevated wind speeds and cooler conditions. They’re not horrible conditions, but from a fantasy perspective, there is some element of concern.
Typically sustained wind speeds in the 10-14 region do not have a major impact on a warmer day, but once the temperature dips below 60, that’s when we start to see some impact on fantasy output.
On average, games that kick off in that combination of conditions see just over 85 fantasy points score, which is down just over 10% on the 95+ fantasy points we see on average in calmer or warmer conditions.
Not too shabby for a mid November game at Soldier Field tomorrow! It'll be breezy and mostly cloudy, but also mostly dry.
A little mist is possible towards the end of the game. #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/gOPkfY9Trg
— Sam Kuffel (@SamKuffelWx) November 17, 2024
The majority of that impact tends to come in the passing game, with running backs seeing very little impact. Therefore, Jordan Love and Caleb Williams, as well as both sets of receivers, should get a small downgrade this week in these conditions. With the Chicago Bears having a good pass defense, it’s risky to trust Love and the Green Bay Packers’ passing game too heavily this week.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10 mph easterly with gusts up to 20 mph
Games in Hard Rock Stadium get a lot of attention earlier in the season because of the impact of the heat, especially on road teams. However, it’s less of an issue this time of the year. This week, it’s the forecasted wind that may raise concern.
While Hard Rock has a roof, it’s still an open stadium, so there is some impact felt from the wind. However, sustained wind speeds this week are not expected to be above 10 miles per hour, and while gusts as high as 20 mph will occur, the impact can be tough to measure.
At wind speeds up to around 15 mph, we can see around a 5% decrease in fantasy output, which is negligible for the most part, especially at this time of the year. If the wind speeds were sustained above 20 mph, there would be more cause for concern, but that is not currently forecasted.
Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-10 mph northerly
Foxborough’s weather forecast looks set to be fairly nice, although it will likely feel pretty chilly and a little windy for a warm-weather dome-based team like the Los Angeles Rams.
At these temperatures, the impact of the wind starts to be felt once we climb above 10 mph, which today’s current forecast doesn’t project. There might be a slight decrease in output, but nothing that should alter decision-making in Week 11.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Jets Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph northwesterly
There should be little for either offense to complain about weather-wise in New Jersey this week. In these conditions, the average fantasy output is above 90 points. At these temperatures, in dry conditions, we don’t really start to see a major weather impact until wind speeds climb above 20 or 25 mph.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph southerly
This is another game in the 1 p.m. window where there shouldn’t be any major weather concerns. The average fantasy points in these conditions are over 90 per game, and the impact of the weather is not felt until the wind speeds climb over 10 mph. Even then, it’s a 10% decrease on average, so there should be no reason to downgrade anyone in this game due to the weather.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennessee Titans Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 7-8 mph southwesterly
There should be little for either offense to complain about weather-wise in Nashville this week. In these conditions, the average fantasy output is above 90 points. At these temperatures, in dry conditions, we don’t really start to see a major impact of the weather until wind speeds climb above 20 or 25 mph.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers Weather
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: 20% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-5 mph southeasterly
The weather for this game could be the worst in appearance since it’s the only game where any rain is predicted to fall. But even then, we are talking about just a 20% chance of rain at kickoff, climbing to somewhere around 40% towards the end of the game.
When you look back through the database, wind speed has historically been the most important condition in fantasy output for these games. If the wind creeps up towards 10 mph, we may start to see an impact on fantasy output in the passing game.
While there are higher wind speeds predicted in Santa Clara at some point today, they’re not forecasted until later in the day. Even then, we would need both the wind and rain to sweep in for any major impact to be seen. While we may see either the wind speed increase or some rain, it’s unlikely we will see both based on the current forecast.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos Weather
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3 mph westerly
The conditions in Denver look perfect for football this week, with temperatures over 50 and wind speeds below 5 mph. The average fantasy points in these conditions are over 90 per game, and the impact of the weather is not felt until the wind speeds climb over 10 mph.
Even then, it’s a 10% decrease on average, so there should be no reason to downgrade anyone in this game due to weather.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-10 mph northerly
The conditions in Buffalo look perfect for this huge matchup, with temperatures over 50 and wind speeds below 5 mph. The average fantasy points in these conditions are over 90 per game, and the impact of the weather is not felt until the wind speeds climb over 10 mph.
Even then, it is a 10% decrease on average, so there should be no reason to downgrade anyone in this game due to weather.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
- Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys | Monday, 8:15 p.m.