The Seattle Seahawks will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Seahawks skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Geno Smith, QB
With Jaxon Smith-Njigba seemingly breaking out and hope that DK Metcalf is back on the field coming out of the bye, I understand why you might consider Geno Smith in desperate situations, but I think you can stream elsewhere (Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, or Drake Maye are all options, depending on your league).
The 49ers have had Smith’s number in the past (two touchdowns on 153 attempts since the start of 2022), and the efficiency that has made him a fantasy streamer in the past is trending in the wrong direction when facing the divisional rival.
- Week 2, 2022: 80% completion rate
- Week 15, 2022: 70.5% completion rate
- Week 12, 2023: 66.7% completion rate
- Week 6, 2024: 57.7% completion rate
The 49ers are on the short list of teams most likely to create pressure without needing to bring the heat — Smith completed 59.2% of passes when pressured without the blitz in Weeks 1-4, a rate that has fallen to 44.2% in his four games since.
With two games coming against the Cardinals, I’m not dismissing Smith’s value moving forward, but I promise you that you can find a better floor/ceiling combination on your waiver wire for Week 11.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
Kenneth Walker III entered this season with the profile of a home run-hitting running back who would struggle for stretches, in part due to a lack of versatility, but was a threat to make your day with a single carry.
While I don’t think the early season injury is lingering, the first 10 weeks have looked nothing like what we expected. Exactly zero of his 129 touches have gained 30 yards this season, and yet he’s been a steady asset. How, you might ask?
Despite two missed games, he already has set a career-high in receptions. Not only does he look comfortable in this role, but it could expand moving forward if Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role extends down the field a bit.
Walker bailed you out in the first meeting with the 49ers by catching all eight of his targets (14 carries for 32 yards). This development has elevated his healthy floor to that of an RB2. In the preseason, I would have feared this matchup, and I still do to a degree (-0.03 yards per carry before contact over his past two games). But with the catch count stabilizing, there’s no reason to pivot off of Seattle’s RB1.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
I spoke of Kenneth Walker’s expanded role, and the simple-minded fantasy manager would hear that and downgrade Zach Charbonnet in their rankings. But that’s not you, right? You approach this game of ours with an open mind and the willingness to look at things a bit differently.
At no point this season has Charbonnet looked like a player destined to hold standalone value while Walker is active, and the RB1 showcasing versatility eliminated all thoughts of playing his backup. That sounds like a bad thing, but it’s not.
It has stopped you from trying to force Charbonnet into your Flex spot while also ramping up the expectations of the lead back in Seattle’s offense, a role that we know is Charbonnet’s should Walker get injured.
That’s a net positive. You’re only going to play Charbonnet should Walker sit, and that RB1 role is more valuable now than it was two months ago (Charbonnet averaged 16 carries and 4.5 targets in his two games as the primary back). There is no weekly value to chase here, but we are talking about a top-five handcuff, which holds value as we progress through a long season.
DK Metcalf, WR
It’s been a rough run of late for DK Metcalf managers (consecutive DNPs leading into the Week 10 bye), but reporting out of Seattle is optimistic for his Week 11 status in this divisional showdown.
Is the upside the same for Metcalf as it has been in the past? I’d argue no. His targets per red zone route run is down to 20.8% after posting three seasons north of 32%, and with Geno Smith playing inconsistent ball (as many games with a sub-5.5-yard aDOT as over 8.5 yards), there is more volatility in this profile than years past.
That said, we are talking about one of the premier athletes who is averaging a career-high 125.1 air yards per game. The matchup isn’t ideal (4.4 yards per target for Metcalf in the Week 6 meeting), but given the state of the receiver position these days, you’re playing him and not thinking twice about it.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off the best game of his young career (Week 9 vs. LAR: seven catches for 180 yards and two scores) and has seen 20 targets over a two-game stretch for the first time as a pro.
We entered the season with optimism around this 2023 first-round pick, and he’s beginning to realize that potential at a high level. Can it stick?
Production with DK Metcalf on the field, 2024:
- 11.9% under expectation
- 6.6 aDOT
- Four TDs on 131 targets
Production with Metcalf on the field, 2024:
- 27.6% over expectation
- 13.6 aDOT
- Three TDs on 37 targets
That’s not to say he can’t produce alongside Metcalf, I very much think he can, but we’ve yet to see it. My hope is that what he did in Week 9 was enough for Geno Smith and this offense to structure his usage a bit differently moving forward. But my “hope” doesn’t always translate into fantasy points, and that is why I’m hedging my ranking a little bit.
I’ve got JSN ranked as fringe WR2 as I have to bake in the risk of his aDOT regressing and this difficult matchup. For the record, I’m playing him where I have him, but we can’t just assume that what we last saw is sticky.
Tyler Lockett, WR
We’ve now cleared a full 365-day stretch since the last time Tyler Lockett reached 90 receiving yards in a game. With no more than 10 expected PPR points in four of his past five games, there isn’t a reasonable way to feel good about playing the veteran receiver at this moment in time.
And why would we expect that to change moving forward?
Lockett’s slot rate (27.3% of his routes) is at a career low, a trend that has eliminated the once sturdy floor. That’s a crippling blow for a 32-year-old receiver that has lost a step when it comes to stretching the field.
You can chase the fact that Lockett scored in the first meeting with the 49ers if you want — can you do it in a head-to-head DFS matchup with me? I don’t see myself ranking Lockett as a redraft starter for the remainder of the season barring injuries ahead of him, and that means he is on the roster chopping block if push comes to shove.
Noah Fant, TE
Noah Fant sat out Week 9 with a groin injury before the Week 10 bye. With him presumably operating at less than full strength in a best case situation, Fant can safely be left on waiver wires, especially with DK Metcalf expected back.
Touchdown equity drives scoring on the fringes of the TE position — Fant hasn’t found the endzone since Christmas Eve, 2022.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers Trends
Seattle Seahawks
Team: The Seahawks have six more committed than forced turnovers, their worst rate through nine games in the 2000s (it’s only their fifth time over that stretch with a negative turnover differential).
QB: In Weeks 1-5, Geno Smith’s quick pass rate was 83.8% when not pressured, but it has dropped to 61.1% since.
Offense: Seattle has lost consecutive games, and in those contests, they’ve converted just five of 22 third downs (22.7%).
Defense: The Seahawks have allowed opponents to pick up just 37.4% of their third downs this season, their best since 2018 (35%) and much improved from last season (46.3%).
Fantasy: We entered the season with optimism around Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he’s beginning to realize that potential at a high level. Can it stick?
2024: With DK Metcalf on the field
- 11.9% under expectation
- 6.6 aDOT
- 4 TDs on 131 targets
2024: Without DK Metcalf on the field
- 27.6% over expectation
- 13.6 aDOT
- 3 TDs on 37 targets
Betting: Unders are 8-1-2 in Seattle’s past 11 road games played on short rest.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers won six straight games following their bye last season, a run that started with a win in Florida. San Francisco came out of their Week 9 bye and won in Tampa Bay last weekend.
QB: Brock Purdy’s average depth of throw is up 11% from last season and ranks second in the NFL, trailing only Jordan Love.
Offense: On a per-play basis this season, the 49ers are 1.44 yards better than their opponent. That rate leads the league – in fact, the Ravens (+1.38) are the only other team above one yard.
Defense: San Francisco owns the seventh-lowest sack rate this season when blitzing (5.3%).
Fantasy: In his season debut, Christian McCaffrey notched just the sixth game this season with 13 carries and 65 receiving yards – so much for easing him back into action!
Betting: After covering five straight home divisional games, the 49ers have failed to cover each of their past three, a run that includes a 12-point win as a 14.5-point favorite against these Seahawks in Week 14 last season.