Thursday night’s matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles could hardly have more on the line. With both clubs boasting seven wins heading into tonight’s game, the winner of TNF will walk away holding first place in the NFC East.
But TNF is also a showcase for Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, both of whom are in the midst of outstanding campaigns. With Dak Prescott on injured reserve and Daniel Jones struggling in New York, will Daniels or Hurts emerge as the best NFC East quarterback this season?
How PFN’s QB+ Grades Commanders QB Jayden Daniels in 2024
While Daniels is the overwhelming favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in 2024, the No. 2 overall pick is coming off his worst game of the season. Facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10, Daniels posted his lowest completion rate (50%) of the season, didn’t throw a touchdown, and took three sacks in Washington’s 28-27 loss.
Daniels earned his worst grade of the season — by far — in PFN’s QB+ metric, going home with a 67.8 (D+). For reference, that’s essentially the same mark QB+ gave to Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones for his dismal effort against the Minnesota Vikings last week.
The PFN Rookie Report Card is ready after Week 10's action. Here's how the young ones have graded out this season overall based on our QB+ Metric ⬇ pic.twitter.com/xgWmKnIBHH
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 13, 2024
Daniels has primarily resided in the B+ and C+ range this season. He hasn’t garnered an A performance yet this year, but only nine quarterback games in 2024 have received an A- grade or better.
The reigning Heisman winner’s consistency keeps him near the top of PFN’s season-long quarterback rankings. Daniels’ D+ against the Steelers was not only his worst grade of the year but his only mark below a C. He’s avoided the sort of rookie nadir games we’ve seen other first-year quarterbacks post in previous seasons.
As such, Daniels ranks fifth in QB+ for the season. His 89.4 (B+) grade trails only Lamar Jackson (100.0, A+), Joe Burrow (92.3, A-), Brock Purdy (90.4, A-), and Tua Tagovailoa (90.1, A-).
How PFN’s QB+ Grades Eagles QB Jalen Hurts in 2024
While Daniels’ dominant rookie campaign has taken the NFC East by storm, Hurts is quietly in the midst of a potential career year.
Hurts finished second in MVP voting and earned second-team All-Pro honors after his electric 2022 season, when the Eagles nearly beat Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII.
PFN’s QB+ assigned Hurts a B for that brilliant production — he’s at a B+ (87.1) through 10 weeks of the 2024 season.
Jalen Hurts now has the 2nd most rushing TDs in the NFL this season. He scored 2 TDs against Dallas today, bringing his season total to 10. 😤
Derrick Henry is the only player with more (12). 👀 pic.twitter.com/6bA36uz2AS
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 11, 2024
Compared to his 2022 season, Hurts has improved his yards per attempt (8.4 vs. 8.0), EPA per dropback (0.11 vs 0.09), passing success rate (46.6% vs. 47.5%), and off-target rate (8.1% vs. 9.1%).
He’s doing all that while being affected in the pocket at a higher rate than in 2022. Hurts is being pressured on 43.3% of his dropbacks this year, the third-highest rate in the NFL and four points worse than two seasons ago.
Meanwhile, Hurts’ level of difficulty is only increasing. He’s not using many easy buttons this season. Among the 25 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks in 2024, Hurts ranks 16th in play-action rate and 22nd in screen rate. His average depth of target (8.2 yards) is the sixth-highest in the league.
And yet, his worst performance in PFN’s QB+ was the C- he earned in the Eagles’ Week 4 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hurts almost always has trouble with Todd Bowles’ defense, but his only other game below was a C+ this season against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3.
Like Daniels, Hurts has yet to reach that vaunted A-grade territory this year. However, he landed a B+ mark for his four-touchdown effort against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 8. That was the second-best game of Hurts’ career by QB+, trailing only another four-TD performance against the Commanders in 2023.
Commanders vs. Eagles Thursday Night Preview
Daniels leads all quarterbacks with 343 scramble yards this season. Washington’s rookie quarterback had scrambled at least three times in every healthy game until Sunday, and he was good at it. His 73.8% rushing success rate on scrambles ranks fourth in the NFL.
However, the LSU product didn’t scramble a single time in Washington’s Week 10 loss to the Steelers, who did an excellent job keeping Daniels inside the pocket as a passer. Daniels only had two dropbacks during which he moved outside the pocket on Sunday. One was an incompletion; the other was a sack.
In his eight previous full games, Daniels had posted nearly 10 dropbacks per game outside the pocket. He averaged 0.45 EPA per play on those dropbacks, fourth-best in the NFL and well above the NFL average (0.00 EPA). Against Pittsburgh? -1.56 EPA per play on those two dropbacks.
The Eagles will likely try to deploy the same strategy by telling their defensive line to contain Daniels in the pocket while directing their cornerbacks to play tight coverage on the outside.
On the other side of the ball, how will Washington combat Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and Philadelphia’s rushing attack? Dan Quinn’s defense plays nickel on 83.8% of its snaps (the NFL’s second-highest rate) and deploys light boxes — six or fewer defenders — on 57.8% of its plays (fourth-highest).
That approach may not work against an Eagles offense averaging 213 rushing yards over its past four games and is likely to get stud left tackle Jordan Mailata back in the lineup on Thursday.
Washington has rapidly improved at preventing explosive runs over the last four weeks, allowing a run of 10+ yards on just 6.8% of attempts since Week 7 (ninth-best in the NFL). But while they’ve given up just 4.9 yards per pass over the last month (third-best), the Commanders have allowed a 15% explosive pass rate (12th-worst).
Will Washington be able to stop A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith from getting down the field? The Commanders probably won’t have recent cornerback trade acquisition Marshon Lattimore, who still isn’t practicing due to a hamstring injury.