Week 11 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With 10 weeks of data, could Week 11 be our most profitable yet? Sportsbooks have installed plenty of road favorites and big spreads — this is a unique betting board, and I’m here to walk you through the NFL picks for every game.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
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Week 11 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 11 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Eagles -3.5
- Vikings/Titans over 39.5
- Packers -5.5
- Jayden Reed over 4.5 receptions
- Jayden Reed (-5.5) receiving yards over DJ Moore
- Steelers +3
- Jaguars/Lions over 47
- Rams/Patriots under 43.5
- Dolphins -7
- Jets -4
- Browns +1
- Seahawks/49ers over 49
- Falcons +2.5 with Broncos under 23 points
- Chiefs +2
- Bengals/Chargers under 47
- Cowboys under 17.5
David Bearman’s Picks
- Browns/Saints under 44.5
- Ravens/Steelers under 48
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Drake Maye over 27.5 rush yards (up to 30.5)
- George Pickens longest reception over 25.5 yards
- Nick Chubb over 14.5 rush attempts
- Jared Goff under 28.5 pass attempts
- Mark Andrews under 40.5 receiving yards
- Travis Etienne Jr. under 53.5 rushing yards
- Cooper Rush under 20.5 completions
- Josh Allen over 230.5 passing yards (up to 239.5)
- James Cook under 59.5 rushing yards
- Dawson Knox over 25.5 receiving yards
- Patrick Mahomes longest completion under 34.5 yards
Minnesota Vikings (-6, 39.5) at Tennessee Titans
Soppe: When I saw this game on the slate, my initial thought was to go under the number. These are two of the five slowest-moving offenses in the league; outside of Justin Jefferson, there isn’t game-breaking talent that scares me.
But that was before the line was posted — I was a few points short, and now I find myself on the other end, based mainly on the quarterbacks’ propensities to shorten the field for the opposition.
We know the Minnesota Vikings are as aggressive as anyone on the defensive end; at this point, I can’t imagine I have to give you the full sell on Will Levis being more than willing to put the ball in harm’s way. On the other side, Sam Darnold is teetering on extreme regression, and last week was concerning (three interceptions against the Jaguars, two of which came while not pressured).
The Tennessee Titans don’t blitz often, but they’ve cleared 40% twice this season (coincidentally, both coming against NFC North teams) and could opt to try to heat up Darnold in this spot. At the very least, I trust both of these offenses to give their top receiver a chance to make splash plays, and that might be good enough.
Calvin Ridley earned over 38% of the targets when Mason Rudolph was under center, a level of usage mirrored last week with Levis back. No matter what you think of Darnold’s potential regression, Jefferson is going to get his chances, and he usually comes through (28 more receiving yards this season than Minnesota’s next three most featured options).
Through 10 weeks, drives starting on the plus side of midfield carry a scoring expectancy that is 80.5% higher than drives that open in their own territory — not a surprising number but one that could very much come into play in this spot. With a low total, it doesn’t take much in the way of chaos to get us home.
Overs are 8-4 in the last 12 games with a team favored by more than five points in a game with a total no higher than 40 – let’s get the Vikings into the end zone three times and go from there!
Pick: Over 39.5
Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 40.5) at Chicago Bears
Soppe: I tend to tread lightly around road favorites in divisional play, as these games just find a way to be close, and laying points without the benefit of home-field advantage can be a tough ask.
That is unless you’re in the NFC North. In the last eight instances in which this division has had a road favorite, the better team covered seven times. I like that to continue with the Green Bay Packers coming off a bye and facing a Chicago Bears team taking on water with three straight losses (27 total points scored).
Green Bay is the best blitzing team in the league when it comes to pressure rate (54.1% of blitzes; league average: 41.5%), and I expect that strength to be on full display. We got a glimpse of Caleb Williams’ downside when sped up last week (four passing yards on 16 such dropbacks last week in the loss to the Patriots).
Jordan Love had no problem with this defense a season ago (9.5 yards per attempt with five scores and no interceptions across those two games). There is no denying that Love takes more risks than Packer Nation would prefer, but I expect the risks to bear fruit in this spot against a defense that ranks 20th or worse in completion percentage and passer rating against the deep pass.
Pick: Packers -5.5
Soppe: With the Packers coming off their bye, I’m of the belief that they look to pick at Chicago’s scabs, especially when their opponent’s weaknesses align with their strengths.
Reed has distanced himself from his teammates as the alpha receiver in Green Bay’s offense (he leads the team in receiving yards by 208 yards and is the only Packer WR with 70+ yards after the catch this season … he has 280) and has spent 72.6% of his snaps in the slot for his career.
Through 10 weeks, the Bears allow the fourth-highest completion percentage on slot targets (75.6%), leading me to believe that Reed should be able to make the most of the looks he gets.
I didn’t mention that YAC stat by accident. Before the Week 7 bye, the Bears were the seventh-best defense at preventing yards after the catch (4.8 yards per reception), but following the off week, they rank 27th (6.1). If Reed gets the volume I believe is likely, he stands to single-handedly swing this outcome.
On the other side, Chicago has consistently told us that they like DJ Moore as a perimeter receiver more than Carolina did, and teams have shown no interest in throwing that direction against the Packers.
Lowest percentage of opponent passes thrown out wide, 2024:
- Chiefs: 30.3%
- Bills: 30.9%
- Packers: 31.9%
- Broncos: 32.5%
I’m not suggesting that the rested Packers are on the level of those three defenses in totality, but in taking away where Moore wins, they are, and that’s all I need for this ticket.
Pick: Jayden Reed over 4.5 receptions
Pick: Jayden Reed (-5.5) receiving yards over DJ Moore
Baltimore Ravens (-3, 48) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Katz: What makes the player prop market so beatable compared to sides and totals is the inability of sportsbooks to truly factor in every variable.
Andrews’ receiving yardage line had been in the 28.5-33.5 range for the better part of the past two months. All of a sudden, it’s 40.5. That seems to be an overreaction to his season-high 68 receiving yards against the Bengals last week.
Aside from that matchup being much more favorable than a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that surrenders just 17.1% of its total receiving yards allowed to tight ends, it was also the ideal circumstance on offense for Andrews. Isaiah Likely did not play and the Baltimore Ravens did not activate a third tight end. That resulted in Andrews seeing a season-high 94% route participation rate.
Likely practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. He is going to play. As a result, I fully expect Andrews to go back to mainly blocking and running fewer routes. Combined with the difficult matchup against a good defense, I expect him to go back to his 3-30 baseline performance.
Pick: Mark Andrews under 40.5 receiving yards
Bearman: Now for the under in the bigger game with a bigger number! Yes, I am fading a team with two MVP candidates on it that scored 76 points in the last two weeks and 24+ in eight consecutive games. Why? Because none of those other teams were coached by Mike Tomlin.
Last year, this Ravens offense, which was also very good, scored 10 points in each contest with the Steelers. The year before? Thirteen and 16. In 2021? Thirteen and 19. In fact, in the last seven meetings between John Harbaugh’s Ravens and Tomlin’s Steelers, none of the matchups have reached 40 points, with all seven hitting the under by at least five points and on average by 8.1 points per game.
Lamar Jackson vs the Steelers:
1-3 record
4 touchdowns
0 rushing TDs
7 interceptions
5 fumbles
59.1 completion %
66.8 passer rating
20 sacksMVP turns into scrub vs Steelers. FACTS. pic.twitter.com/wiGN7oOCNl
— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) November 12, 2024
Yes, this Ravens offense is putting up historic numbers and the Steelers’ defense is not Tomlin’s best, but they have held seven of their nine opponents to 20 or fewer points and have not allowed more than 19 points to the Ravens since 2020. This won’t be your typical two-bad-teams slogfest we love to bet on, but I still think 48 is a tad too high and will hold on for the entire second half.
Pick: Under 48
Katz: If this one doesn’t hit, I’ll be really annoyed. Every data point suggests a monster game from Pickens.
The Steelers WR1 already has a whopping 10 receptions of at least 27 yards on the season. Since Russell Wilson took over as starter, Pickens has a 30+ yard reception in every game.
The Ravens are a massive pass-funnel defense, allowing by far the most passing yards per game.
Opposing passers attempt downfield throws at a 19.6% clip, the seventh-highest in the league, and complete 50% of them, the eighth-best in the league. Pickens is going to beat this dreadful secondary deep this week, likely multiple times.
Pick: George Pickens longest reception over 25.5 yards
Soppe: In the same week we get Mahomes as an underdog we also get Tomlin catching points in a divisional game — what a world!
I’m as encouraged as anyone by the direction this offense is headed under Wilson, and that’s enough for me to back the trends with his head coach.
During Tomlin’s career, Pittsburgh is 20-15 (57.1%) outright as a divisional ‘dog, posting a 24-9-2 ATS mark (72.7%) in those 35 games. Betting against Lamar Jackson is scary, but betting against Tomlin in a spot like this is a little scarier.
Pick: Steelers +3
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13, 47)
Katz: The gift that keeps on giving: Goff to not attempt passes. This line continues to be set in the 28-30 range. Why?
Goff has reached 30 pass attempts all of two times this season. The first time came in the Detroit Lions’ lone loss to the Bucs in Week 2 when they were playing catch up. The second came last week when Goff just barely got to 30 despite a negative game script for the entire night.
The Lions are 13-point home favorites against the Mac Jones-led Jacksonville Jaguars this week. I know this is the NFL and anything can happen, but are we really expecting anything other than a positive game script?
Goff averages 23.25 pass attempts per game in Lions wins. In games the Lions have won by multiple scores, he averages 20 attempts.
The Jaguars can’t stop anyone on the ground or through the air. The Lions should have success doing whatever they want. Their offensive efficiency should also help contribute to fewer plays overall as they will gain more yards per play. Everything points to another low-volume outing from Goff.
Pick: Jared Goff under 28.5 pass attempts
Katz: After looking like the superior back all season, Tank Bigsby ceded the clear lead-back role back to Etienne in Week 10. Part of that was due to Bigsby’s ankle injury. However, Etienne played 68% of the snaps regardless and looked like the main guy once again.
This week, Bigsby is out due to his ankle sprain. That leaves Etienne in line for a pretty large workload, with D’Ernest Johnson operating as the spell running back.
As a result, Etienne’s rushing yardage line is up at 53.5. That’s a number he has eclipsed just once all season. Could he do it again this week? It’s quite doubtful that the next spot for Etienne to make waves on the ground is as a two-touchdown road underdog with Jones at QB against a Lions defense allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game. I would play this down to 48.5.
Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. under 53.5 rushing yards
Soppe: The Lions were able to extend their win streak to seven straight last week with a comeback effort on Sunday night against the Texans, but there was no denying that their elite efficiency took a big step backward (five interceptions).
This is as good a bounce-back spot as you could possibly ask.
The Jaguars allow 4.2 20-yard pass plays per game (second most), and against an opponent like Detroit that can put up points in bunches, this thing could quickly get out of hand. Of course, the spread suggests as much, but don’t let that scare you — overs are 9-1-1 in the past 11 games with a spread north of a dozen points.
If you’re worried about the game script, should you be? That means more rushing attempts for maybe the best RB duo in the league, one that has this team ranking fifth in runs of 15+ yards per week, no small accomplishment given the lack of athleticism under center.
Pick: Over 47
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, 43.5) at New England Patriots
Katz: I don’t think sportsbooks are truly grasping how effective Maye is as a runner. Two weeks ago, he had 95 yards on the ground. The reason this number is likely a bit low is that Maye has actually alternated heavy rushing games with light rushing games.
Maye has gone over this number in three of his five starts. Last week, he only had four carries for 24 yards. But we need to understand the context.
Maye only attempted 25 passes. He only dropped back to pass 29 times. In his three other starts in which he didn’t get hurt, he averaged 37 attempts per game, never falling below 33.
The Los Angeles Rams are not about to roll over like the Bears did. The New England Patriots are unlikely to have an extremely positive game script throughout. That means more Maye dropbacks and more opportunities for scrambles. I think he gets there in the first half and would play this up to 30.5.
Pick: Drake Maye over 27.5 rushing yards (up to 30.5)
Soppe: I lost the head-to-head with Bearman last week in betting on points in a New England game — I’ve learned my lesson. It’s possible that I lack feel for this offense as a whole, but it really is a unit that asks Maye to do too much at this point in his career.
Unders are 15-8-1 (65.2%) in the last 24 instances in which a losing team was installed as a road favorite. These defenses may not jump off the screen at you, but they should be able to do enough to get off the field in this matchup.
- Patriots: fewest YAC allowed per reception
- Rams: inside the top 10 in interception rate and sack percentage
Both of these defenses rank better than the league average in red-zone touchdown prevention; I’m not worried about field goals in bulk costing me this ticket.
Pick: Under 43.5
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7, 44)
Soppe: We haven’t seen the offensive juggernaut in Miami that we’ve been hoping for since Tua Tagovailoa returned, but the wheels are in motion with him completing 77.7% of his passes in those three starts, and this profiles as a great spot to remind us of exactly what is possible on this offense.
The Las Vegas Raiders are easily a bottom-10 defense in terms of opponent touchdown pass percentage, red-zone efficiency, and pressure rate. Is there a better spot for this unit to find its footing?
Tagovailoa is 10-4 ATS (71.4%) when favored by more than five points, and with little room for error the rest of the way, I fully expect this team to press down the gas for 60 minutes. Over the past three weeks with their QB1 back, the Miami Dolphins are averaging 25.7 points per game; if they get anywhere close to that total, they cover this number, and I like them to clear that average.
Pick: Dolphins -7
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-4, 43.5)
It came out early in the week that the Indianapolis Colts decided to go back to Anthony Richardson under center, and sportsbooks were quick to react.
By changing the spread from Jets -4 to Jets -4.
Richardson has started 10 games in his NFL career, and I think that we can agree that he’s been about as bad as possible, right? He has more interceptions than touchdown passes and has just one more completion than incompletion. It’s been a mess.
After four quarters, Richardson’s team has been down by more than three points just twice, one being in his NFL debut. Now, it’s clear that he hasn’t played the entirety of a few of those games, but my point remains: The valleys of the rollercoaster have been clear, though the peaks have a way of leveling the playing field a bit.
The Colts intercept passes at an above-average rate while the New York Jets are attacked downfield with consistency (9.8-yard opponent average depth of throw, the second highest). In a game where I expect the possession count to be limited, a single turnover from the Jets or a home run from the Colts could be enough to get this ticket to the finish line, and I think it’s possible we check both of those boxes.
Pick: Colts +4
Cleveland Browns (-1, 44.5) at New Orleans Saints
Bearman: I’m usually picking unders in games in the 30s and was quite surprised to see this one as high as 44.5. To me, this is higher than it should be based on false hope and what people think they are going to see out of these two teams instead of what they are actually seeing.
Let’s start with the New Orleans Saints, who welcomed Derek Carr back two weeks ago and have scored a whopping 22 and 20 points in those games. If you take out the record start to the season, where the Saints were an unstoppable force and scored 91 points in two games, New Orleans is averaging 17 PPG, which would be good for 27th out of 32 teams. They’ve broken 20 twice over the last six weeks.
As for the Cleveland Browns, we warned you ahead of Week 9 not to stop taking Browns unders because of one Jameis Winston game, and true to form, they scored 10 against the Chargers.
Cleveland’s offensive problems are deeper than the injury move from Deshaun Watson to Winston or Chubb’s return. They have scored 16.4 PPG, 29th in the NFL. They are 31st in yards, 28th in rushing and passing, and dead last in PFN’s Offensive+ metric. If these two teams score what they have averaged lately, they would still need another 10 points to hit this number.
Pick: Under 44.5
Katz: There are a lot of ways to attack this. I think Chubb probably goes over his 58.5-yard rushing line as well. My only hesitation is that he hasn’t quite looked like himself just yet. So even against a soft run defense, I’m not overly confident in his 2.7 yards per carry improving to the point where 15+ carries guarantees 60+ rushing yards. But I am confident he sees at least 15 carries.
Chubb has seen carry counts of 16 and 15 in his last two games. He saw 16 carries against a stout Ravens run defense in a game the Browns won. Then, last week, he still handled 15 carries against a good Chargers run defense in a game the Browns lost by three scores.
If Chubb is seeing this much work on the ground in a negative game script, I have the utmost confidence he can push 20 rush attempts against a porous Saints run defense. New Orleans allows the sixth-most rushing yards per game, and the Browns should not fall behind so much that they’d have to abandon the run.
Pick: Nick Chubb over 14.5 rush attempts
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5, 48)
Soppe: Not all divisions are created equally. In the NFC North matchup this week, I’m willing to lay a significant number of points, but that isn’t something I’m comfortable doing in the NFC West. Instead, I’m looking at the total.
Overs are 9-3 in the last 12 NFC West games with a spread north of five points. The San Francisco 49ers welcomed Christian McCaffrey back last week, and not only was I encouraged by their willingness to give him his standard role without limitations, but their secondary receivers (Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings) looked the part.
I’ve bet San Francisco to win this division and think their best football is very much in front of them. I don’t have that same level of optimism for the Seattle Seahawks as a whole, but with them welcoming DK Metcalf back, I think they can score enough to hold up their end of the bargain.
When these two teams met in Week 6, we saw 60 points put on the board. McCaffrey wasn’t available that day while Kenneth Walker III averaged 2.3 yards per carry and Metcalf caught just 27.3% of his targets. I’m looking for the 49ers to get to (or past) 30 points and for Seattle, coming off of its bye, to clear 20.
Pick: Over 49
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 44)
Soppe: This line has shifted significantly from where it stood a week ago based on Week 10 outcomes; while those games count, I think this is a pretty big overreaction by the betting public.
Yes, the Denver Broncos were impressive in defeat against Kansas City last weekend while the Atlanta Falcons found a way to lose in New Orleans.
Relax.
The Falcons had won five of their previous six games, and while the quality of opponents in those contests wasn’t high, I’m not sure that this Broncos team is anything other than average. Bo Nix has delivered some nice highlights, but his range of outcomes is far greater than a Kirk Cousins-led offense, so the fact that I am getting points to take the more stable team is a gift, even on the road.
Cousins’ quick-pass rate is declining, something that tells me his confidence in his teammates to get open with time is on the rise. I value that against the highest blitz rate team in the NFL, as I trust the veteran to make the most of the opportunities presented to him.
Cousins has covered seven of his past nine games when the total closes under 45 points and unders are 5-2 in the past seven such games. In these spots, he holds the ball, moves the chains, and finishes the deal. The Broncos are a bottom-10 team in terms of yards per pass, third-down conversion rate, and offensive success rate.
Denver is fun, but they aren’t a team I like in a negative game script, and that’s what I expect this game to look like.
Pick: Falcons +2.5 with Broncos under 23 points
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2, 45.5)
Katz: This is a line I jumped on early. I suspect it’s a few yards higher by the time you’re reading this. I would play it up to 239.5.
Admittedly, there is a bit of a narrative I am banking on here. The Kansas City Chiefs are undefeated. They’ve been tested several times. They should’ve lost at least three games. Yet, they always find a way.
Over the years, Mahomes has always found a way to beat Allen. This just feels like the perfect spot for the Buffalo Bills to come out and punch the Chiefs in the mouth. Last year, under Joe Brady, the Bills were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. That hasn’t carried over into this season.
The Bills currently have a 56% neutral game script pass rate, the 11th-highest in the league. But there’s more to that.
Patrick Mahomes overtime rule. 13 seconds will forever haunt the Buffalo Bills. https://t.co/6Ckw1Fjy1X pic.twitter.com/nTnVvkr0I7
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) February 16, 2024
Recently, the Bills have dialed up the pass volume. From Weeks 1-6, Allen did not attempt more than 30 passes in a game. Since Week 7, he’s thrown at least 33 passes in every game. That coincides with the Bills’ neutral game script pass rate shooting up to 61%.
The Chiefs have an elite run defense. It allows 3.7 yards per carry, second-fewest in the league, and 83.2 rushing yards per game, third-fewest in the league. The Bills are not about to run Cook into brick walls. This has all the makings of Allen airing it out. This number is way too low.
Pick: Josh Allen over 230.5 passing yards (up to 239.5)
Katz: For starters, this line jumped out at me because it was three yards higher than the DraftKings line at just $0.05 more. But the reality is, I think the under hits no matter where you bet it.
You cannot run on the Chiefs. They allow 83.2 rushing yards per game, the third-fewest in the league.
So far, they’ve gone up against the likes of Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, J.K. Dobbins, Alvin Kamara, and Jordan Mason. The next running back to reach 60 rushing yards against the Chiefs will be the first.
Expect the Bills to go pass-heavy and for Cook’s rushes to not go very far. I don’t think he comes close to this number. I would play it down to 54.5.
Pick: James Cook under 59.5 rushing yards
Katz: Dalton Kincaid is out this week. Kincaid missed time during last week’s game, too. After running no more than 14 routes in any game this season, Knox ran 23 routes against the Colts.
With Kincaid out, we should expect Knox to be the full time tight end. He could see upwards of an 80% snap share and is likely to set a season high in routes run.
No team allows a higher percentage of their total receiving yards against to tight ends than the staggering 35.8% surrendered by the Chiefs. It is the highest in the league by an impossibly wide margin (next most is 28.5%).
Given the Chiefs’ elite run defense, the Bills should air it out this week. Amari Cooper is likely to return, but Keon Coleman remains out. Knox could be the third option in the passing game behind Khalil Shakir and Cooper. He should sail over this number.
Pick: Dawson Knox over 25.5 receiving yards
Katz: Imagine telling someone in 2019 or 2020 you wanted to bet Mahomes’ longest completion under. This is a new Chiefs offense, though, and it’s one that does not prioritize downfield passing.
Mahomes will probably take a shot or two deep to Xavier Worthy. But have you seen Worthy play football? Yeah, me neither. If he actually catches a pass, we tip our caps.
Otherwise, this is a dink-and-dunk offense.
Mahomes has seven completions of 35+ yards in 2024 across six different games. From that standpoint, the odds aren’t overwhelmingly in our favor, but it’s less about what has happened and more about what we think will happen.
All season, the Bills have emphasized not getting beat deep. Their two-high look forces opposing quarterbacks to keep things in front of the safeties, which prevents downfield throws.
In last year’s regular season game against the Bills, Mahomes’ longest completion was 23 yards. In their playoff meeting, it was 32 yards. Averaging a paltry 5.4 air yards per attempt, Mahomes is not the same downfield thrower we remember from his early years. The Chiefs will always take what the defense gives them. This week, I expect that to be a lot of Kareem Hunt and a lot of short passing.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes longest completion under 34.5 yards
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 48)
Soppe: This is an interesting clash of styles, but I think the home team is better positioned to succeed in such a spot. The Los Angeles Chargers are gradually upping their pass rate over expectation, giving them a level of versatility that I think keeps them on the field consistently in this spot.
The Cincinnati Bengals have largely been thriving on offensive efficiency, and while they are great, assuming they continue to produce at their recent rates isn’t wise against arguably the best defense in the league.
Chargers defensive rankings, 2024:
- First in rush EPA
- Second in red-zone touchdown rate
- Fifth on third downs
- Fifth in yards per pass
Los Angeles is favored in this game, and I like it to dictate the tempo. If this is the case, the Chargers are moving the chains and staying on the field. Is Joe Burrow good enough to land those big plays? Of course, but L.A. ranks third in deep ball interception rate; if it can prevent the chunk gains, I think we see Justin Herbert’s trend extended: five straight (and 10 of his past 12) prime-time starts have checked in under the total.
Pick: Under 47
Houston Texans (-7.5, 42) at Dallas Cowboys
Katz: Cooper Rush has been with the Cowboys for seven of his eight years in the NFL. Over that span, he’s made seven starts. Do you know how many times he’s completed more than 21 passes? Once. In his first career start back in 2021.
Rush started five consecutive games in the 2022 season after Dak Prescott injured his hand in Week 1. The Cowboys won four of those games. Rush averaged 16.6 completions per game, with 21 as his max.
With a career completion percentage of 60% against an Texans pass rush that will give him fits all night (they just forced five Jared Goff interceptions), the Cowboys offense will continue to be a disaster. Plus, there remains a chance Rush gets benched for Trey Lance in pretty much every game he starts.
Pick: Cooper Rush under 20.5 completions
Soppe: When a home underdog is playing in prime time, unders are 49-23-2 over the past 74 instances (68.1%), a reasonably large sample size that has my interest.
Cooper Rush graded out as the second-worst quarterback last week per our QB+ metric, and this offense is very much in flux with Trey Lance looming. Do I think he’s better than that? I do, but everything is trending the Houston Texans’ way in this game.
If an already one-dimensional Dallas Cowboys offense becomes even more limited, it is poised to massively struggle against a defense that has posted a double-digit sack rate four times this season.
With Nico Collins expected back and C.J. Stroud’s need for a WR1 to truly thrive, I have no interest in betting on this game’s total. With Houston’s run game clicking and its offense holding a higher vertical upside this week than the past month, the Texans could hang a big number with the Cowboys tapping out.
That said, I’m still buying that trend to a degree, but I’m just isolating the home team to do so.
Pick: Cowboys under 17.5 points