The Washington Commanders lost by a point to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, marking the end of their three-game winning streak. Yet, at 7-3, I don’t think a single Commanders fan is unhappy with where they’re at.
The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t been as dominant as you would hope this season but are still sitting pretty at 7-2. Since the bye week, the Eagles have won five straight games, and the offense finally looks like it’s starting to get healthy and hit its stride.
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Eagles -3.5 - Moneyline
Eagles (-180); Commanders (+150) - Over/Under
48.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Lincoln Financial Field
Commanders vs. Eagles Preview and Prediction
Per TruMedia, the Commanders’ offense ranks second in EPA (expected points added) per game. Jayden Daniels’ ability to scramble has been an invaluable asset to this offense, giving them a league-leading 3.34 EPA per game on just those scrambles alone.
Washington’s offense also ranks third in the least amount of EPA lost to interceptions and seventh in EPA lost to sacks, something Daniels struggled with heavily in college.
There isn’t a single aspect of the offense that doesn’t rank in the top 10 in EPA this season, showcasing its true all-around ability. For the Eagles’ defense to get a blueprint for slowing down the Commanders, they need to look at what the Steelers and Chicago Bears did. They are the only two teams this season to hold Washington to a negative EPA.
The Bears were able to pressure Daniels on 44.7% of his dropbacks, 1.5% more than the league’s top defense throughout this season. What was impressive is that they did it while mainly rushing four.
The Steelers, on the other hand, didn’t pressure Daniels as much (29.7%) but blitzed so often that it completely changed the way the Commanders’ offense functioned.
Pittsburgh blitzed on 54.1% of Washington’s dropbacks, and the time to throw for this game was 2.51 seconds. While this is clearly the lowest time to throw all season, I wanted to test whether this was statistically significant.
I performed a one-sample t-test and found that it is significant at the highest level (1%). This means the Steelers’ blitz rate significantly impacted the way the Commanders’ offense was able to play.
The only other statistically significant outlier was the Cleveland Browns’ defense, which blitzed 44.4% of the time and forced a time to throw of 2.8 seconds. The one team that didn’t have success with a blitz rate of above 40% against the Commanders was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Unfortunately for the Eagles, they blitz at the third-lowest rate, which could prove to be a problem.
The Bears again approached their game plan differently than the Steelers and Browns in terms of scheme. Chicago got this pressure by getting home with four and ran zone coverage 77.8% of the time. Pittsburgh and Cleveland both blitzed an obscene amount and ran man coverage more than 60% of the time.
The Eagles are a bad mix of these teams. They blitz less and use four to get home (rank 10th in pressure with four pass rushers) like the Bears but play the ninth-most man coverage on the back end. While this doesn’t seem to work schematically against a team like the Commanders, it has worked in general. The Eagles rank fifth in defensive EPA per play, doing well at stopping both the run and the pass.
The most successful skill of Philadelphia’s defense has been preventing explosives. They rank second in passes of 10+ yards given up, third in passes of 20+, eighth in runs of 10+, and fourth in rushes of 20+. This will be very important, considering Washington is 11th in plays of 10 or more yards and fifth in plays of 20+.
Offensively, the Eagles will have a clear objective for the game — pound the rock and feed A.J Brown.
Washington’s defense is ranked 30th and 26th in runs of 10 and 20+ yards given up. They have also allowed 100 rushing yards to every opponent outside of the Carolina Panthers (95 yards). The Commanders are allowing a successful rush on 42.4% of run plays (26th in the NFL).
Saquon Barkley and this Eagles offense have the third-most runs of 10+ yards and second-most runs of 20 or more while also having the second-most rushing yards per carry before contact, showcasing the stout run-blocking offensive line.
The Commanders’ defense also ranks dead last in EPA when in man coverage versus 15th in EPA when running zone.
Among 152 players with over 150 routes run, Brown ranks first in yards per route run against man coverage with an unholy 5.12-yard average!! What is even more absurd is that Dallas Goedert ranks fifth on that list and DeVonta Smith 33rd.
Needless to say, if the Commanders run man coverage, the Eagles will have a huge mismatch to exploit.
AJ Brown in single coverage this season —
• 16 targets
• 16 receptions
• 325 yards
• 3 TDs
• 158.3 rating when targetedpic.twitter.com/2h9Z4SIW6D— Victor Williams (@ThePhillyPod) October 24, 2024
Overall, both offenses look poised to take advantage of the opposing defense due to schematic advantages. Washington and Philadelphia have each had games this season where they have had to win in a shootout.
However, I lean Eagles here because they have the more experienced team and are at home. And while the defense doesn’t match up well, they are still playing at a good level right now.
The implied score based on a 3.5-point spread and a 48.5-point total is Eagles 26, Commanders 22.5. Washington has only scored less than that twice this season (Bucs, Bears). They’ve also given up more than 26 points in five of nine games.
Philadelphia has scored more than 26 in five of nine and has given up more than 22.5 on three occasions. Out of 36 instances, that is 20 successes (55.56%).
-110 odds is an implied probability of 52.38%. I like the over as well.
My pick: Eagles -3.5 (-108); Over 48.5 total points (-110)