Soppe’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical, which is why I’m breaking down every fantasy-relevant player in every matchup in Week 11. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask. What I can give you every single week in this column are my takes.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Quarterback Start-Sit Advice in Week 11

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (vs. IND)

Aaron Rodgers has one finish better than QB15 since September and is in the midst of a lost season. Trying to guess where his motivation lies is a fool’s errand, but in the short term, I believe he’ll continue to be aggressive in an effort to build up some sort of equity with this franchise for next season.

The Colts are the third most vulnerable on short passes but fifth-best at defending deep passes. Since Davante Adams came to town, he’s been used more in the short passing game with Garrett Wilson handling the field-stretching role. If this Rodgers/Adams thing is ever going to produce the type of upside that we had hoped, this is the spot.

Rodgers isn’t someone you should be counting on until we have proof of concept. He’s my QB20 this week and is going to struggle to crack my top 15 at any point moving forward.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (at NYJ)

Last week started about as poorly as it could for Joe Flacco (two interceptions, including a pick-six, on his first five passes), and yet the Colts didn’t feel the need to insert Anthony Richardson.

But what’s this? Richardson is now the man at the controls of this offense the rest of the way?

Colts have gone back to Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 13, 2024

I was replaced last season as the cooker of our turkey at Thanksgiving and my brother stepped in.

He burned it.

And now, after watching him fail in spectacular fashion, the responsibility is back in my hands. Am I any more qualified after watching him show me exactly what not to do?

Is Richardson in a better spot now after watching Joe Flacco make a mess of Week 10?

The athletic profile hasn’t gone anywhere and that has him challenging my top-15 this week as a bet on his tools and the Jets’ struggles. They’ve played two games against a top-notch athlete at the QB position and while Richardson is not Josh Allen or Kyler Murray, it’s worth noting that those two, when pressured, found success in bunches in this matchup:

• 13 pressured attempts
• 10 completions
• 1 touchdown
• 142.1 passer rating

I’m not shying away from Richardson in DFS tournaments with top-heavy payouts.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (vs. ATL)

What we are seeing from Bo Nix is encouraging on multiple levels. He’s keeping his WR1 feed while also taking what the defense is giving him and adding in plus athleticism when given the opportunity.

I’m loading up on as much Nix stock as I can in long-term leagues, and while I don’t think he’s yet a locked-in starter, he’s in the mix. In the first quarter last week, he distributed his eight passes to seven different teammates, guiding him to his fourth top-15 performance over his past six games.

In terms of this week, the Falcons have the fourth-lowest opponent average depth of throw, something that I believe Nix will leverage to a high-floor, low-ceiling sort of performance that lands him in the QB11-15 range. There’s nothing wrong with that, and if he can continue to showcase growth, a matchup with the Bengals in Week 17 could result in you counting on him with money on the line.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (vs. SEA)

Brock Purdy celebrated the return of Christian McCaffrey by giving fantasy managers their fourth top-10 finish from him this season. He’s averaged over nine yards per pass in each of San Francisco’s past four wins, and with them favored to win this week, it’s plenty reasonable to project another ultra-efficient effort from their QB.

This team may be missing Brandon Aiyuk, but Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall seem capable of picking up that slack. McCaffrey adds a dimension to this offense that few have access to, and with Purdy showcasing an increased willingness to scramble, this is the profile of a top-10 QB the rest of the way.

As for this matchup, we saw Purdy light them up for 255 yards and three touchdowns on just 28 passes in Week 6. The Seahawks defense is one that I trust against below-average offenses and target otherwise.

Per our Offensive+ metric, the 49ers are a top-10 offense thus far despite being bitten by the injury bug. With this team trending near full strength, I’m confident in their projection this week, and that results in Purdy being ranked as a starter, with confidence, for me.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (vs. GB)

Caleb Williams was the QB1 in Week 6 but hasn’t been a top-20 option since and is running out of time to prove himself as a redraft option for 2024.

I still think the future is bright, and that can be true even if the present is murky at best. The Packers are coming off of their bye and own the sixth-lowest opponent passer rating on deep balls. I’m not confident that the rookie will dink-and-dunk his way to glory, and this opportunistic defense is going to make chunk plays difficult to come by.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at DAL)

C.J. Stroud hasn’t finished a week better than QB14 since September, a slump that just so happens to line up with Nico Collins’ last fully healthy game.

I suspect that Collins will be back for this game, and that has me looking at Stroud slightly differently, but I’m waiting one more week before counting on Stroud as my starting signal caller with this game being played on Monday night and the risk that comes with that in terms of Collins’ status.

Houston is going to be playing meaningful games all regular season, and that means you get a motivated (and hopefully healthy) version of this team hosting the Ravens on Christmas Day (Week 17). Remember Alvin Kamara’s historic game on Christmas Day? I’m not saying we see a stat line of similar impact this season, but if we do, it might come from someone attached to this Texans offense.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (vs. HOU)

Twice this season has a QB completed 10 passes while throwing for under 95 yards in a 25+ point loss:

• Cooper Rush (Week 10 vs. Eagles)
• Andy Dalton (Week 7 at Commanders)

Both of my siblings also have red hair, and they aren’t starting for your fantasy team. Am I ruling out all red-headed players from making a living in the NFL? No. Am I starting a redhead in 2024 as my fantasy QB? Also, no.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (vs. CLE)

Derek Carr posted his third top-10 finish of the season last week thanks to Marquez Valdes-Scantling making a few big plays against the Falcons. The performance was nice but not something that I’m at all labeling as sustainable with his primary options injured.

The Browns are the top pressure-rate team in the league this season (43.2% of dropbacks), and while Carr is averaging a career-high 7.7 yards per pressured attempt, I’m downgrading him in this matchup given the weapons currently at his disposal. MVS is fast, but can he work downfield faster than Cleveland can apply the heat?

I’m saying no, and that’s why Carr is no more than a low-end QB2 for me this weekend.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. LAR)

Lamar Jackson (eight straight) and Drake Maye (five, an active streak) are the only QBs this season with a 15+ yard run in four straight starts this season. The athletic profile is a game-changer in this game of ours and gives Maye access to a ceiling that many don’t have, but the passing numbers need to be stable if he’s going to break into the top 15.

After consecutive weeks where he finishes as a starter, Maye has just two touchdown passes (and three interceptions) on 72 attempts, not posting a 30-yard completion over that stretch. Maye’s future (for both the Patriots and fantasy managers alike) is bright, but I don’t think we are there yet in terms of consistency, and that has me ranking him as an option in only Superflex situations.

Gardner Minshew II, QB | LV (at MIA)

Gardner Minshew II just doesn’t have the support to return anything close to viable numbers. There will be weeks where Jakobi Meyers and/or Brock Bowers elevate his status to that of a reasonable DFS punt play as part of a contrarian stack, but I’d rather not tempt fate against an above-average blitzing defense that could pin its ears back if it plays with a lead.

Minshew has thrown 139 passes on the road this season — he has three touchdowns and seven interceptions to show for them.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at SF)

With Jaxon Smith-Njigba seemingly breaking out and hope that DK Metcalf is back on the field coming out of the bye, I understand why you might consider Geno Smith in desperate situations, but I think you can stream elsewhere (Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert, or Drake Maye are all options, depending on your league).

The 49ers have had Smith’s number in the past (two touchdowns on 153 attempts since the start of 2022), and the efficiency that has made him a fantasy streamer in the past is trending in the wrong direction when facing the divisional rival.

• Week 2, 2022: 80% completion rate
• Week 15, 2022: 70.5% completion rate
• Week 12, 2023: 66.7% completion rate
• Week 6, 2024: 57.7% completion rate

The 49ers are on the short list of teams most likely to create pressure without needing to bring the heat — Smith completed 59.2% of passes when pressured without the blitz in Weeks 1-4, a rate that has fallen to 44.2% in his four games since.

With two games coming against the Cardinals, I’m not dismissing Smith’s value moving forward, but I promise you that you can find a better floor/ceiling combination on your waiver wire for Week 11.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. WAS)

It’s getting difficult to properly describe what Jalen Hurts is doing, but that’s not going to stop me from trying.

On Sunday, for the third time in four games, Hurts ran for multiple scores while completing 70% of his passes. He’s normalized something that is a unique occurrence for all other human beings.

• Consider this: the rest of the NFL has three such games this season.
• Consider this: no player has more such games over the past 21 years (regular season, minimum 10 attempts) than Hurts has over the last 21 days.

Does that help add some context? Video game numbers are being put up weekly — don’t let that distract you from what Hurts is doing. His skill set is special, and fantasy managers are enjoying an all-time run. Do I see that stopping this week against a Commanders defense that allowed a touchdown every quarter last week to the Steelers?

I do not.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (at NO)

Having one good (8.1 yards per pass and three scores against the Ravens in Week 8) and one bad game (5.1 yards per pass and three interceptions against the Chargers in Week 9) during two Jameis Winston starts is about as spot-on as it gets. We have a decade-large sample size telling us that this is what we get from Winston, and that can be of use in our game, but it has to be the perfect spot.

And no, I’m not talking about the perfect spot for Winston — the perfect spot for you. If you’re fighting for your life and willing to throw all caution to the wind, Winston should be on your radar. This Saints team is in full 2025 mode, and that could allow for some fireworks, but I’m more interested in this random number generator down the stretch.

I don’t know about you, but in my experience, it seems like there is usually a significant mismatch at some point in the semifinals or championship matchup. Some teams get hot at the right time and find themselves matched up with the powerhouse that has controlled the entire season. Sound familiar?

• Week 16 at Cincinnati Bengals
• Week 17 vs. Miami Dolphins

It’s rare to stash a quarterback, but if you’re honest with yourself and view your team as a long-term underdog, putting a volatile player like this on your roster makes plenty of sense.

As for Week 11, I don’t have Winston ranked as a top-15 QB.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (vs. JAX)

• Quarterbacks greatly impact winning NFL championships.
• Quarterbacks greatly impact winning fantasy championships.

With those two facts, I can understand the desire to back a QB on a Super Bowl threat, but Jared Goff has just two finishes better than QB9 this season. For reference, Geno Smith and Derek Carr have more. Heck, Justin Fields has the same number of such performances this season.

I don’t think the five-interception version of Goff that we saw on Sunday night is here to stay, especially against a bottom-three pass defense in yards per pass, completion percentage, and passer rating. The lack of rushing upside and the run-heavy script have Goff outside of my top 12 this week, though I think you could talk yourself into him putting up big numbers early against a vulnerable defense when it comes to DFS builds.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (at PHI)

A dropped touchdown pass didn’t help Jayden Daniels last week, but that is part of the game. The impressive rookie left Week 7 early, and while he didn’t miss any games, his fantasy managers have been struggling — Daniels is the QB16 in points per game over the past three weeks.

Are NFL defenses adjusting faster than Washington can adapt to what is being thrown at them? It’s possible, but I’m still plenty comfortable in betting on an athletic profile like this. The Eagles own the fourth-best defense against deep passes in terms of yards per attempt, so this might not be a highlight-filled game through the air, but that’s part of the beauty with Daniels — he can pay the fantasy bills in several ways.

The Eagles haven’t played an offense structured like Washington’s, and that has me hesitant to project Philly to quiet them. If this game pushes 50 points the way sportsbooks have it projected, both QBs should return big-time value.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (at LAC)

Joe Burrow took full advantage of a soft spot on Thursday night, ripping apart the Baltimore Ravens to the tune of 428 yards and four scores in the one-point loss. Bengals fans can be disappointed with this team’s 4-6 record, but fantasy managers who looked past the unique injury last season and the season-opening dud (remember that he threw for 164 touchdown-less yards in a home loss to the Patriots?) have been rewarded.

Handsomely.

Burrow is now the first AFC quarterback to throw four touchdown passes in consecutive games since … himself (Weeks 16-17, 2021). As the leader of the top pass-rate-over-expectation team in the NFL, he deserves to be locked in with confidence moving forward.

Of course, no player is untradeable at the right price, and this is a prime example of that. If your team is somewhere in the 4-6 or 5-5 range and you view the next few weeks as critical to either make the playoffs or set yourself up in a favorable spot, I’d test the waters.

• Week 11: at Los Angeles Chargers
• Week 12: Bye
• Week 13: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

But wait, that’s not all. The final three weeks of the season are just as brutal.

• Week 16: vs. Cleveland Browns (Thursday night)
• Week 17: vs. Denver Broncos
• Week 18 (if needed): at Pittsburgh Steelers

It is worth noting that Burrow is pretty close to the matchup-proof tier of fantasy signal callers. That said, his per-game fantasy production is 15.3% lower if you remove the two games against pass-funnel Baltimore.

What could you get with Brock Purdy for Burrow? Purdy’s bye is behind him, has Christian McCaffrey back, will likely be playing meaningful games all season, and wraps the standard fantasy season with four straight good weather spots, the final three in advantageous spots (Rams, Dolphins, and Lions).

Joe Flacco, QB | IND (at NYJ)

I wasn’t sure that Joe Flacco was going to make it through Week 10 as the team’s starting quarterback, not after two of his first five passes were intercepted. But give the veteran credit for hanging in there.

And now give him a spot on the bench.

I think this is the right move for the Colts and with that belief, cutting Flacco is a reasonable move in Superflex leagues if you value the roster spot. If you have a spot to burn, I’d hang on through this week just as a precaution.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (at CHI)

If I asked you how many top-10 finishes Jordan Love has at the position this season for the 6-3 Packers, what answer would you give me?

Even with two missed games, I’m guessing you’d give him a 50% hit rate, three or four of his seven starts, but the answer is just two. He’s thrown an interception in every game this season, the rushing is all but gone, and in the two weeks before the Week 10 bye, none of his 61 passes resulted in a touchdown.

I still think Love is on the starting radar for the remainder of the season, and maybe the off week will allow him to get closer to full strength. However, he’s nothing more than a fringe option in this divisional matchup.

Chicago’s sack rate has been gradually improving this season, and when Love is under duress, his passer rating has regressed by 36% from 2023. Among pocket passes, something that I’m labeling Love as until proven otherwise, Tua Tagovailoa (vs. LV), Jared Goff (vs. JAX), and Brock Purdy (vs. SEA) rank well ahead of him this week; I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to stream Russell Wilson (vs. BAL) as a one-week option.

To be clear — Love is a fantasy starter you can feel fine about for your playoffs: the Packers get the Seahawks, Saints, and Vikings to close the fantasy season

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. KC)

Josh Allen was missing Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper for all of Week 10 and lost Dalton Kincaid during the game. For 95% of signal callers, that would hinder their ability to put up numbers, but you didn’t draft Allen because he was a part of the 95%.

Despite all of the injuries around him, Allen accounted for 330 yards of offense against the Colts. He failed to throw a touchdown pass (snapping a streak of four straight multi-TD pass efforts) but still found a way to average 12.7 yards per completion to complement his 11 fantasy points as a runner.

He might be the most situation-proof QB in our fantasy game (only one finish this season worse than QB13), and that makes him the type of player who puts his teams in a position to be successful at the highest level.

We can have the “when to draft a quarterback” conversation this summer, but it’s hard to count out any team with Allen on it, and that needs to be considered more this upcoming August than it was last.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (vs. CIN)

Don’t look now, but Justin Herbert is getting comfortable in this system, and the fantasy numbers are coming along for the ride. He’s been a top-12 QB in three straight games, a major accomplishment for a player who previously didn’t have a single top-15 finish this season.

Herbert carries his recent momentum (multiple total touchdowns accounted for in all three of those games with 9.4 yards per pass attempt) into a matchup that faces the 10th-most pass attempts per game, in part because they have the third-lowest sack percentage.

More important than Herbert’s direct matchup, though, is his indirect one. He obviously won’t be on the field at the same time as Joe Burrow, but if Cincinnati can do what few have been able to do and score with regularity against this Los Angeles defense, Herbert will be pushed in a way he really hasn’t this season.

I currently have Herbert ranked as QB8 for Week 11 and would be happy to play him in any league where I have him.

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (at DEN)

Kirk Cousins was the highest-scoring fantasy QB in Week 5 but hasn’t given us top-15 numbers in a single game since. The lack of rushing equity certainly plays into that, but so does a limited yardage ceiling through the air.

We remember the 509-yard game against the Bucs, but did you know that Cousins has reached 245 passing yards just two other times this season?

The aggressive Broncos figure to make Cousins uncomfortable on his dropbacks and could result in Atlanta looking to leverage Bijan Robinson and the run game. At the end of the day, I think Cousins has a narrow range of outcomes, and I can’t get him inside of my top 15 this week without a top-five upside.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at PIT)

The front-runner for the NFL MVP was nothing short of special on Thursday night, and his Ravens needed every ounce of it to earn the one-point win over the Bengals. Lamar Jackson is the first QB with three games of four passing scores and 30 rushing yards in a single season since himself in 2019.

Do you still have the weird desire to knock Jackson for the running? Stop it. He’s the first quarterback with multiple passing touchdowns and 280 yards through the air since 2020. He’s bizarro Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is an elite talent whose team doesn’t need him to light up the scoreboard while Jackson is an elite talent whose team requires video game production.

A goofy late-season schedule makes the long-term evaluation a little weird if Baltimore’s seeding isn’t in major question (Weeks 14-17: bye, Sunday game, Saturday game, Wednesday game), but if there is a player that can overcome a less-than-ideal rest schedule, it’s Jackson in a spot like this.

The Steelers are obviously a great defense, but in 2024, great offense beats great defense. In Jackson’s two most difficult matchups this season:

Week 1 at Chiefs: 273 pass yards and 122 rushing yards
Week 9 vs. Broncos: 280 passing yards, 84.2% complete, and three touchdowns

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (at DET)

Mac Jones earned a D+ in our QB+ metric, an identical mark to that of Trevor Lawrence through nine weeks and his fantasy status was even lower. Against the Vikings, his 22 passes yielded just 111 yards with no scores and two interceptions. The Jags had as many first downs as drives on Sunday and without elite volume, Jones will be swimming upstream to return even QB2 value. The only value he can offer for fantasy managers is weighing down his top two pass catchers with targets.

Mason Rudolph, QB | TEN (vs. MIN)

After accounting for multiple touchdowns in two starts for the ailing Will Levis, Mason Rudolph was sent to the bench in Week 10. The impact won’t be felt at the quarterback position in fantasy circles, but Calvin Ridley’s managers were thrilled with his 35.4% target share from Rudolph, a note to remember should the veteran backup see his number called again at some point this season.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (at NE)

The season has been a little rocky for Matthew Stafford. He had a Thursday night gem against the Vikings when he got both of his receivers back (25-of-34 for 279 yards and four scores), but he also has a few games like Monday night against Miami, a game in which he averaged just 6.4 yards per pass and didn’t see any of his 46 attempts result in a score.

Without rushing equity or much splash-play potential (zero 40-yard completions since September), starting a QB with this profile is a tough sell. Add in the fact that the Rams are a five-point road favorite and have a running back in Kyren Williams with whom they are comfortable melting the clock, and Stafford isn’t a top-15 play for me this week.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at BUF)

Daniel Jones and Caleb Williams are a part of the long list of QBs this season with multiple top-10 finishes in 2024.

That list doesn’t include Patrick Mahomes.

I think he has a chance to join it this week if for no other reason than it might be the rare instance where that is what is asked of him. Mahomes has struggled to be a consistent fantasy asset this season, not because the aliens from Space Jam stole his talent, but because the undefeated Chiefs don’t need him to put up big numbers the way Buffalo needs Josh Allen to.

I like his usage potential in this spot against a defense that asks you to take your medicine with short passes, something Mahomes has been doing in volume for the past few seasons. That said, we have to also include the idea that Buffalo dictates the tempo and makes this a low-possession game.

Mahomes is my QB14 this week. If it looks like we are getting a low ownership situation in DFS tournaments, I might get there as a bet on talent.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (vs. BAL)

Russell Wilson has been worthy of your trust in two of his three starts, and he has elevated this offense in such a way that I’m comfortable assuming this team opens things up in an effort to exploit the Baltimore Ravens’ pass-funnel defense.

In every one of his starts this season, the veteran QB has accounted for at least three scores or completed 70% of his passes — why can’t he do both against the worst EPA pass defense in the league?

Three teams have scored at least 26 points in each of their past four games: the Bills, Eagles, and Steelers. I’m not putting this offense on that level yet, but part of being a successful fantasy manager is adjusting expectations with time. This isn’t the Steelers offense from September. Heck, this isn’t the team from early October. This is a team that is embracing its strengths and looking to make splash plays through the air.

Wilson will be a chalky DFS play, and I don’t think that’s wrong.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at TEN)

It felt like the Darnold ship was taking on water before Week 10, and he did nothing to quiet those fears with an ugly showing in Jacksonville (24-of-38 for 241 yards and three interceptions).

Included in those struggles was an end-zone interception on a play in which he had all day to throw. If you simply look at Darnold’s season-long numbers, he looks like a viable starter, but those stats are buoyed by three top-10 finishes that came in September (zero since).

The fact that the Titans rank 29th in pressure rate is why I have Darnold hovering around QB15 this week, but in traditional-sized, one-QB leagues, I’m making excuses to look elsewhere (Bo Nix and Jameis Winston both rank higher for me this week).

Trevor Lawrence, QB | JAX (at DET)

Early reports indicate that this is a day-by-day situation when it comes to the health of Trevor Lawrence’s shoulder, but if you’re playing competitive games at this point in the season, you’re not interested in Jacksonville’s QB situation.

I’m tempted to believe that the Jags take a cautious approach given their 2-8 record and their commitment through 2028 to Lawrence. Mac Jones was unable to find success last week, and I fear that is the fate of this offense regardless of who is under center.

Detroit’s D/ST has the potential to post a big number, and if that is your angle, I’d rather see Jones under center.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (vs. LV)

Tua Tagovailoa has completed 77.7% of his passes in three starts back (concussion), but the fantasy points have yet to pile up.

• Week 8: QB20
• Week 9: QB17
• Week 10: QB22

With a banged-up Tyreek Hill and a struggling Jaylen Waddle, the counting numbers have yet to come, but I’m tempted to trust him against a defense that ranks inside the bottom 10 in passing touchdown rate, completion percentage, and passer rating.

This week. My third tier of fantasy QBs extends from QB7-QB13, and Tagovailoa finds himself in the middle of that range. I like this to be his best week back, and that has me ranking him ahead of Jordan Love (at CHI) and Patrick Mahomes (at BUF).

Will Levis, QB | TEN (vs. MIN)

On Sunday, Will Levis posted his first game with multiple touchdown passes, no interceptions, and 20+ attempts since his NFL debut. Good for him but meaningless for fantasy managers.

The impactful part of Levis’ Week 10 display was proof that he was watching what “worked” for this offense during his time on the shelf. Mason Rudolph funneled 38.5% of his targets toward Calvin Ridley in his starts, and Levis essentially mirrored that plan in his return to action (39.1% target share).

Levis facing the aggressive Vikings isn’t even a QB2 for me this week (yes, people, I’d still play him over a fringe WR3 in a Superflex setting), but his willingness to load his WR1 down with elite volume gives him a chance to impact fantasy leagues down the stretch.

Running Back Start-Sit Advice in Week 11

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at TEN)

I’ve used this space to say it a few times, and I’ll continue to say it: Aaron Jones’ managers are skating on thin ice. He’s again banged up, this time with a rib injury that Kevin O’Connell doesn’t believe will cost him time, but the premise remains the same. This is a featured back who turns 30 in less than a month and has had his fair share of troubles staying on the field.

Jones scored on the third carry of his Vikings tenure and has punched in just one of his 139 rushing attempts since. Volume has been the driving force behind him being a viable option in each of the past four weeks, but it’s beginning to feel as if we are on borrowed time with this offense as a whole.

Cam Akers is a must-add if you haven’t made the move already as he is working ahead of Ty Chandler these days in the RB2 role. You’re playing Jones any week he is active because Minnesota has proven to be committed to giving him 17-20 touches, but I’d want to make sure I have plenty of RB depth for the stretch run.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (at MIA)

“Matchup-proof” is typically used in a positive light, but the Raiders’ run game is “matchup-proof” in the sense that there is no matchup that would prove worthy of our attention.

Alexander Mattison is the lead in this backfield, and I think that title is reasonably safe, but considering he hasn’t had a 20-yard gain since September, what exactly is the path to viable production?

If not for a garbage-time score at the very end of Week 9, cutting a 24-point deficit to 17 with 22 seconds left, this Raiders team would be without an outing of 21+ points since Week 3. There is no requirement for every backfield in the NFL to have a running back who deserves to be rostered, let alone considered in the Flex conversation, something of which Las Vegas is proof positive.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (vs. CLE)

Alvin Kamara has three straight games with at least 50 receiving and 50 rushing yards, joining Christian McCaffrey as the only player with such a streak since 2017. The usage has been elite, and that’s not going to change with this team regularly losing skill-position players, though increased usage for Taysom Hill could result in a frustrating goal-line situation.

Don’t let the dropped 56-yard touchdown from last week concern you — he makes that play 99 times out of 100 and you should be encouraged about him being in a position to do so. The Browns allow a touchdown at the second-highest rate to running backs this season — there are a lot of ways for Kamara to pay off your trust and produce top-15 numbers for an eighth time this season.

Antonio Gibson, RB | NE (vs. LAR)

Antonio Gibson has four straight games with no more than five touches and is exactly the type of player I am talking about when I say “trimming the fat.” Gibson works his way onto the field and is the RB2 on this depth chart, but I want players with a reasonable path to a ceiling on my bench; I’m not sold on that being the case here.

Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging a career-low 3.8 yards per carry and has gone a month without a 15-yard touch. I’m not positive that the lead role in this backfield is locked into lineups at this point, making the backup role a risk not worth taking in this below-average offense.

Patriots’ offensive rankings, 2024:

• 27th in red-zone efficiency
• 28th in three-and-out rate
• 29th in average drive distance
• 30th in points per drive

Lineup spots are too valuable to roster Gibson in 2024.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (vs. ATL)

The fifth-round rookie out of Notre Dame seemingly took control of this backfield last week. That made him the cover boy for all waiver wire content this week.

Broncos RB snap shares, Week 10:

• Estimé: 45.5%
• Javonte Williams: 29.1%
• Jaleel McLaughlin: 10.9%

Estimé averaged 6.2 yards per carry during his time in college, and while the versatility was limited, he did score on 7.8% of his carries, a skill set that might transfer nicely to the pros for the 227-pound back.

Diving more into the Week 10 usage, it was Williams who was featured in the first quarter and the Estimé show began after that (Quarters 2-4: 57.5% snap share). For the game, those two essentially split third-down duties, with Estimé holding a significant edge on the first two downs, the money-making downs as far as fantasy managers are concerned.

This is pretty clearly a fluid situation that demands our attention but not our Week 11 commitment. I’m not starting any Broncos RB in any format this week but rather using this matchup against a below-average run defense (both in EPA and success rate) as a data point when it comes to evaluating the final month-plus of this fantasy season.

Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (at PHI)

Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring) has missed consecutive games, and that has allowed Austin Ekeler to see an uptick in usage. But true to his word this preseason, it’s clear that he has no interest in taking over a bellcow role, even when injuries open up the door for that.

In those two games, Ekeler has been on the field for 58% of his snaps and rushed for a total of 86 yards (3.6 yards per carry). None of that stands out, but with three rushing scores, the impact of playing the lead role in a strong offense is clear.

For the season, Ekeler has produced 20.7% over expectations. It’s clear that he has more gas in the tank than we gave him credit for in drafts this summer, but I’m still going to have a hard time giving him a Flex grade any time Robinson is active.

You’re rostering him with the understanding that he’s never going to be highly ranked but that you can play him in a pinch and avoid the zero floor that home run-hitting receivers come with. Should Robinson miss another game, we are looking at an RB2; if not, he ranks in the low 30s at the position this week.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (at DEN)

We are finally getting the usage we wanted from Bijan Robinson. He has at least 19 carries and three receptions in three of his past four games (that’s three more such games than he had all of last season).

It’s a beautiful thing.

The Falcons are in scoring position whenever Robinson touches the ball, and I have him as a part of the “matchup-proof” tier at the position. The Broncos are elite in most defensive metrics, and while I buy that, I buy this version of Robinson more.

Even with the stats in their corner, Denver has allowed over 110 rushing yards to opposing running backs four times this season. Tyler Allgeier failed to convert three goal-line carries last week, leaving the door wide open for Robinson to take over this backfield in a Christian McCaffrey-like way.

The Falcons close the 2024 fantasy season with the Raiders, Giants, and Commanders — get your team to that point, and he should be able to handle the heavy lifting.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (vs. IND)

Braelon Allen has an interesting profile for dynasty managers, but for redraft purposes, he’s nothing more than a luxury stash that can be cut if the need arises. The rookie has seen his snap share decline in consecutive weeks. In the few opportunities that he’s had in those contests, he’s underwhelmed (5.3 points produced with an 8.7-point expectation).

Allen is a Breece Hall handcuff and nothing more. If you need immediate help, this is the type of player you can move on from, though I wouldn’t just cut him for the sake of cutting him. There’s a chance that New York goes into player development mode down the stretch, and that could result in a usage spike this winter.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (vs. IND)

Breece Hall owns the worst boom/bust rate of 26 qualified running backs this season (25% of his carries have failed to gain yardage while only 11.8% have gained at least 10 yards). That’s a problem if this offense isn’t generating the type of scoring opportunities that we thought they would (one rushing score after scoring twice in three games to open the season).

On the bright side, he’s earned at least four targets in nine of 10 games, and his yards per catch are up 17.9% from a season ago. Due to the limitations of this offense, Hall is no longer a top-tier running back, but he does have a stranglehold on the lead role and can be started with confidence against a Colts defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards per game to running backs this season (118.2).

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (at PHI)

Brian Robinson Jr. has now missed consecutive games due to a hamstring injury (stop me if you’ve seen “hamstring injury lingering longer than expected” before), and that has me worried about not only his status but his usage.

I like Robinson at full strength, but it’s because the volume is there and the scoring equity is high. Does he check either of those boxes this week? The Eagles own a top-10 red-zone defense, and if we don’t get a clean bill of health entering the weekend, I’d be tempted to project something closer to 12-14 touches than the 17-20 we’ve come to enjoy.

For the season, 40.5% of Robinson’s receiving yards came on a single catch in Week 1. The versatility has regressed after the encouraging start, and that makes this profile a tougher sell if the health status is TBD. I currently have Robinson out of my Week 11 lineups and will pivot if needed as opposed to vice versa.

Cam Akers, RB | MIN (at TEN)

Cam Akers is the type of addition savvy fantasy managers make entering the holiday season. That’s not to say that he’s a league winner or anything like that, but he provides you with an avenue to production, and that’s the profile I want to load my bench with for the stretch run.

Last week, Akers doubled Ty Chandler’s snap count, providing us with proof that he sits as the RB2 on Minnesota’s depth chart. Aaron Jones has over 1,700 touches on his NFL résumé, has missed time in three of the past four seasons, and is currently battling sore ribs (not expected to threaten his status for Week 11 but worth noting).

The 7-2 Vikings will be playing meaningful games in December and are well past their bye week. Would it surprise you at all for Jones to miss time at some point? After this week …

• Week 12 at Chicago Bears (15th in defensive rush success rate)
• Week 13 vs. Arizona Cardinals (28th)
• Week 14 vs. Atlanta Falcons (27th)
• Week 15 vs. Chicago Bears (15th)
• Week 16 at Seattle Seahawks (24th)

Only a veteran RB with a checkered health history stands between Akers and a strong Flex ranking. Make the addition now and cut loose your WR6 who you’re never going to realistically play.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (at LAC)

The Bengals placed Zack Moss (neck) on IR last week, and that encouraged them to make a deadline deal for Khalil Herbert, a move that inspired some strong reactions:

RIP Chase Brown bellcow role

November 3rd, 2024 – November 5th, 2024 https://t.co/rlxzj4bnHI

— Underdog (@UnderdogFantasy) November 5, 2024

I’m not here to say that’s the wrong angle, but Chase Brown played 88% of the snaps on Thursday night in Baltimore while racking up 13 rush attempts and earning 11 targets (nine catches for 52 yards). They tried to get Herbert’s feet wet, and he put a handoff on the ground. Now, it was a quick turnaround following the trade, and he did recover the fumble to prevent a complete disaster, but it certainly wasn’t an inspiring debut.

Brown has scored in six of his past seven games and has produced 3.6% over fantasy expectations this season. I do think there is some validity to shifting some work Herbert’s way, but what’s the ceiling? Brown held roughly a 65/35% touch edge recently over Moss. If that’s the floor, we are still talking about a fine RB2 for the remainder of the season as the featured back in an offense that is going to be asked to score plenty.

This isn’t a good matchup, and that goes without saying, but Brown’s versatility should be able to overcome that (see Week 10) until we have a tangible reason to doubt his volume.

Christian McCaffrey, RB | SF (vs. SEA)

The long-awaited return of fantasy’s 1.01 wasn’t overwhelming from a box score standpoint (107 yards with no scores on 19 touches), but the usage checked every box. He made a big play on a Brock Purdy fadeaway jumper that reminded us all of just how different he is from the rest of the backs in this league.

If Week 10 was a ramping up of CMC, the rest of the NFL (and opposing fantasy teams) is in trouble. In two games against the Seahawks last season, all McCaffrey did was turn 35 carries into 259 yards and two scores.

No big deal.

He also caught six of seven targets in both of those convincing victories. The version of McCaffrey that you drafted in August is here to carry your team during the home stretch.

Let’s go!

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (vs. GB)

D’Andre Swift has at least 16 carries in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL, allowing him to retain value. I think what we’ve seen from Swift up to this point (3.1% production over expectation) is about what we can expect, and while there are red flags in this profile, the matchup against the 28th-ranked EPA run defense is more than enough to justify starting a running back whose role is safe.

The Bears have gone 22 straight drives without a touchdown. If you remove two outlier carries from Swift this season, we are looking at a plodding back averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Still, a voluminous role in November holds value, especially in an offense that would prefer to shorten the game.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (vs. JAX)

I don’t love the fact that David Montgomery has failed to clear 12 carries in five of his past six games, but with a touchdown in seven of his past nine while playing for one of the top three offenses in the league, I’m more willing to overlook the limited touch ceiling.

The Jaguars own a bottom-10 red-zone defense, allowing a touchdown on 60.5% of red-zone drives, making them the perfect spot to employ Montgomery with plenty of confidence.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at PIT)

When this game kicks off, we will be 322 days removed from the last game in which Derrick Henry played and failed to reach the end zone. The Bengals defended him well on Thursday night (his fewest yards per carry in a game since Week 1), won the time of possession battle, and had no answer for Lamar Jackson (141.4 passer rating). And yet, 71 yards and a touchdown.

Najee Harris has impressed this season, right? Jordan Mason is the reason your fantasy team is sitting pretty right now, correct? Henry’s floor performance against Cincinnati is essentially what those two have offered on a per-game basis this season.

The Steelers have played against three different star running backs this season (Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Breece Hall), and they all cleared 100 scrimmage yards. This matchup isn’t ideal, and I couldn’t care less — Henry is, at worst, a fine starter and capable of breaking the slate against any defense in the NFL.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (vs. LV)

De’Von Achane was bottled up on Monday night against the Rams (52 yards and no touchdowns on 17 touches), but the game plan in Miami is to get him the ball in space, and that is going to elevate his floor to that of a Tier 2 running back.

In a game where Miami couldn’t move the ball or establish any push up front, their lead back still reached double figures in PPR fantasy points thanks to catching five passes, a total he’s hit in every one of Tua Tagovailoa’s starts this season.

The Raiders allow the 10th-most yards per carry to running backs this season, and with the built-in floor that is his pass-catching ability, a spike week could be in store for this explosive Dolphin. You’re starting him weekly and feeling privileged to do so.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB | DAL (vs. HOU)

Tyler Allgeier saw his role potentially vanish by struggling at the goal line during Week 10 and Ezekiel Elliott did him one better by fumbling away his opportunity to punch in a score.

The veteran back hasn’t cleared 10 rush attempts in a game this season and only has one reception since September, making him a pretty clear cut in all formats if he is still on the end of your roster for some reason. Elliott played just 21.4% of the snaps on Sunday, and by putting the ball on the ground for an offense that already has enough problems, that rate appears more likely to regress than progress in the coming weeks.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (vs. CIN)

Gus Edwards (ankle) returned to action last week, his first appearance since September, and was used in a pretty similar way.

Weeks 1-4

• 37.8% snap share
• 3.1 expected fantasy points per game

Week 10

• 24.6% snap share
• 5.5 expected fantasy points

He was heavily used when on the field (10 carries for 55 yards) and looked about as good as we could have hoped after the extended absence. That said, the best case scenario isn’t overly appealing in most fantasy leagues.

In the Week 10 win over the Titans, five different Chargers had multiple rush attempts. If a wide distribution of work in this backfield is going to stick, Edwards reaching double digit carries isn’t going to be the norm and without a versatile skill set, asking him to return standalone value isn’t wise.

You can stash him if you lack other options, but he’s a handcuff to JK Dobbins that doesn’t carry the type of role upside that half a dozen other handcuffs do.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (at BUF)

The Chiefs have been projecting a late November return for Isiah Pacheco and that means now is the time to try to acquire him in the trade markets if the team holding him is in desperate need of victories.

I find it unlikely that Pacheco assumes an elite workload immediately upon his return (Kansas City’s record gives them a luxury with their RB1 that San Francisco didn’t have) and that buys Kareem Hunt managers a few more weeks of viability.

Stay close to the reporting, but I’m tentatively expecting a Week 13 return to fantasy lineups. He is unlikely to play this week and with the Panthers on deck for Week 12, the team figures to be cautious with a player they want to peak in January as opposed to risk in November.

Week 13 is not only a good matchup (vs. Raiders), but it comes on a Friday, giving Pacheco additional time to recover before a Week 14 showdown with the Chargers.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. JAX)

Sunday night was a crazy game for a variety of reasons, but with Jared Goff struggling, it was great to see them trust Jahmyr Gibbs with a season-high 19 carries. He wasn’t very efficient with that work (71 yards), but if you’re telling me we are giving an explosive player like Gibbs usage like that, I’ll take it to the bank.

Gibbs’ boom/bust rate (difference in the percentage of carries gaining 10+ yards to carries failing to gain any yards) is +2.5% — he’s the only qualified RB with more 10-yard gains than stuff efforts this season. That level of explosiveness has fueled eight top-20 finishes, and I see no reason to bet against this profile moving forward.

Detroit ranks 23rd in pass rate over expectation, a style of play-calling that allows them to give us two running backs whom we can trust at a high level every week.

James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. KC)

Hear me out: What you see from a running back early in his career isn’t necessarily who he is for the rest of his career.

James Cook entered this season with concerns about his ability to find paydirt, a perceived weakness that has been a strength this season. He has twice as many rushing scores this season (128 carries) as he had through two professional seasons (326 carries) and is running as hard as anyone in the league, of which his 20-yard gain in the first quarter was proof.

Buffalo’s run game is going to prove critical this week as they try to hand the defending champs their first loss of the season, and Cook is the type of player who can help facilitate that. He’s posted five top-15 finishes this season, and I’m expecting a sixth, even against the top-ranked run defense in almost every category you’d look at (yards per carry, EPA, success rate, etc.).

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (vs. ATL)

To call this season an up-and-down one for Javonte Williams would be a bit of an understatement, but it would appear that things are bottoming out at the worst time possible for his loyal fantasy managers.

Denver jumped out to a 14-3 lead through the first 1.5 quarters on Sunday afternoon against the Chiefs, and Williams had one of their eight rush attempts as they worked into a favorable script. As it turns out, that was the only carry he’d get for the entire game as he finished with more targets than rushing yards.

We are coming up on a month since the last time we saw Williams gain 10 yards with a handoff, and none of his 103 totes this season have picked up more than 20 yards. Through 10 weeks, he’s produced 18.4% below fantasy expectations and is trending in the direction of being a roster cut.

I’m not pulling the trigger yet as we’ve seen Sean Payton cycle through backs in the past, but I’m certainly not holding with much confidence, and there isn’t a type of league in which I’d be entertaining the idea of starting him.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (vs. BAL)

Jaylen Warren’s role has seen him in that 40-50% snap range in three straight games, but Najee Harris’ ankle injury could open us up to extended usage in a suddenly strong Steelers offense in the short term.

In his role as it is, Warren has multiple catches in four straight games; when he was pushed into an increased workload against the Commanders, I thought he handled himself well (six of his 14 carries picked up at least five yards while he failed to gain yardage just once).

This has been far from a banner season for the third-year back (21.7% production below expectations), but the upward trajectory of this offense has me encouraged and penciling Warren in as a low-end RB2 should Harris sit.

This is as tough a spot as it gets in terms of running the ball (BAL: in the top three in success rate, rushing yards, yards per carry, and EPA against running backs), but a handful of targets could be enough to position him as a fantasy starter.

Watch the news on Harris — if he is trending toward being active despite limitations in practice, I’ll be out on both backs, but should his health take a drastic swing in one direction or the other, I’ll be reacting.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (vs. LV)

If you think you’re seeing more of Jaylen Wright lately, you’re eyes aren’t deceiving you.

Wright’s snap shares by week, 2024:

• Week 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals: 4.7%
• Week 9 at Buffalo Bills: 15%
• Week 10 at Los Angeles Rams: 17%

That’s a positive trend with Tua Tagovailoa adding upside to Miami’s motion-oriented offense, but we aren’t close to labeling the explosive rookie as viable.

I do think there is something here in dynasty leagues, but in the scope of 2024, you can move on as roster spots become increasingly valuable.

Wright’s next catch will be his first as a pro, further capping his ability to make the most of his snaps. I certainly prefer the Week 10 usage surprise of Audric Estimé over Wright the rest of the way, but that’s pretty clear. Akers and Gus Edwards are less obvious names who are closer to meaningful roles that I’m rostering over Wright in redraft formats.

Jerome Ford, RB | CLE (at NO)

Jerome Ford recorded just five touches total in the two weeks leading into the Week 10 bye and seems to have be passed by D’Onta Foreman for the secondary role in this limited offense behind Nick Chubb.

Even if you’re building your roster to include handcuff running backs, Ford isn’t a player I’d roster — with a clear path to work early this season, his next game with 13-plus touches this year will be his first. In filling out my roster, I want to be an injury away from impactful volume and Ford doesn’t check that box.

J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (vs. CIN)

I don’t mean to be a bucket of cold water, but there are too many signs to ignore at this point when it comes to J.K. Dobbins’ profile.

After the red-hot start to the season, he’s underachieved in six of seven games and has seen his yards gained per carry before contact come crashing back to Earth. On Sunday against the Titans, he was given 18 more touches and exactly none of them gained more than 12 yards. Gus Edwards returned from injury, and that resulted in Dobbins posting his lowest snap share since Week 3 (66.7%), something that I think is likely to stick.

We aren’t yet at Thanksgiving and Dobbins already has set career marks in carries (141), targets (28), and receptions (24). Fantasy is a game played looking through the windshield and not the rearview; managers doing that are looking for ways to offload this Bolt if at all possible.

The good news is that it should be doable. You can sell Dobbins as a way for the Chargers to play defense with their offense over the next month as they play nothing but offenses with high upside (Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, and Chiefs). You’re playing him until the wheels fall off, but I’d be happy to take a Brian Robinson Jr.-type back in a deal if it’s available.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at DAL)

Joe Mixon posted his worst boom/bust rate of the season on Sunday night (six carries that failed to gain yardage and none that gained 10+) with easily his lowest mark in terms of yards per carry after contact. Signs of fatigue for a 28-year-old running back who has 24+ rush attempts in four straight games?

I think there’s some of that, but he’s been able to hold up. If Nico Collins returns to action, I think we could see an ideal situation — less work and more efficiency. From a week-to-week point of view, I’m not the least bit worried about Mixon on Sunday. But consider yourself warned that there are some warning signs to consider as you look to build an optimal playoff roster.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (at NYJ)

It didn’t take Jonathan Taylor long to take advantage of a strong matchup against the Bills last week, as he ripped off a 59-yard gain in the first quarter and cleared 100 yards on the ground before halftime. He now has the fourth-most rushing yards in Colts history, and I think he’s a long way from done.

He gets another vulnerable AFC East run defense this week (bottom-10 in EPA and against third-down rushing attempts), and after Joe Flacco was intercepted on two of his first five passes last week, a conservative, Taylor-centric offense this week wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

JT hasn’t really won you many weeks by himself (one top-10 finish), but with five top-20 finishes, he’s doing his part in keeping your team competitive. He’s an RB1 in all formats for me this week, and for leagues that extend into Week 18, we could be looking at a late-season run that alters leagues (Week 17-18: at Giants, vs. Jaguars).

Jordan Mason, RB | SF (vs. SEA)

We entered Week 10 hopeful that Jordan Mason’s standalone value would remain while Christian McCaffrey was gradually eased back into action for a team with its eyes set on January.

We were wrong.

Mason was on the field for just 4.9% of San Francisco’s offensive snaps, while CMC carried 13 times and earned seven targets. On the bright side, there is no guessing for Week 11 — Mason is one of the top five handcuff running backs in the NFL and needs to remain rostered. However, he has zero chance of being ranked as a Flex-worthy option as long as McCaffrey is active.

We can discuss Mason’s lack of versatility (just 6.9% of his touches this season have been receptions) and its impact on how the 49ers’ offense functions should he be given the opportunity to lead this backfield another time, he’s nowhere near your starting lineup this week.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (at CHI)

Josh Jacobs entered the Week 10 bye having overachieved in a significant way in three straight weeks (58.5 PPR fantasy points with a 44.2-point expectation). With our custom elusive rating screaming, Green Bay’s bellcow seems to be poised to put fantasy teams on his back for the second half of the season.

Chicago’s defense as a whole has been good for over a calendar year now, but they rank among the cellar dwellers in terms of yards per carry allowed after contact, and that profiles as a problem against an offense that can spread you out with a variety of viable pass catchers.

We’ve seen running backs without the benefit of offensive balance produce in this spot (Jonathan Taylor and Chuba Hubbard combined for 44 PPR points against the Bears, 26.3% over expectation), and with Jacobs rested off the bye, I see no reason why he should be labeled as anything other than a rock-solid starter.

His usage in the passing game has been spotty, but with Green Bay favored, a fifth game this season with 18+ carries is very much in play. That should be enough to justify my confidence in him.

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (at PIT)

With Keaton Mitchell back (one offensive snap last week but on the field for the first time), you can officially move on from Justice Hill if you haven’t already. The idea of having a viable pass-catching back next to Derrick Henry is logical, but this team is too good for that role to get enough work to matter in fantasy leagues.

Mitchell’s return muddies the situation should the machine that is Henry somehow get hurt, thus eliminating your one primary reason for rostering Hill at this point. He’s a good player that matters to the Ravens — but not to fantasy managers in any format.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at BUF)

Let’s call it what it is — Kareem Hunt is a volume play. That may not sound like a glowing endorsement and, long term, it’s not. But for the short term, there’s no reason to jump off of the Hunt Express. That’s now five straight games with over 20 touches, a role that is near impossible to find and lands him inside the top 20 of my rankings regardless of matchup.

Do I think his 10 targets from last week are sticky? Not even close, he had a total of eight looks prior, but it was good to see. More important than the volume of looks was from where they came — four were in the red zone. The Bills are the 11th-best EPA rush defense in the league, but with a league-low aDOT, what we saw last week gives me hope that, even if inefficient, Hunt can give us viable numbers in the game of the week.

Moving off of Hunt for any piece that is a Flex option for the rest of the season would be my play with Isiah Pacheco trending toward his return. But with that information well-known and your league mates unlikely to part with an impactful piece for a rental, I’m planning on riding out this production for as long as I can.

Keaton Mitchell, RB | BAL (at PIT)

Keaton Mitchell saw his first offensive snap of the season on Thursday after averaging 8.7 yards per touch in his shortened rookie season; then he was done for the night. His being active is good to see and makes this Ravens team even scarier, but for fantasy purposes, there’s no reason to get caught up in 2024.

Is he a name to keep track of in the summer? He certainly is. Many managers look at the stat line from the previous season when building out rankings, and those people might not even remember that Mitchell exists. We’ve seen Derrick Henry-centric offenses give significant snaps to a secondary running back in the past, but that happened when the game script dictated as much — that doesn’t happen these days in Baltimore.

Justice Hill has caught 90% of his targets this season, giving Mitchell no projectable path to meaningful touches, even if deemed fully healthy.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at SF)

Kenneth Walker III entered this season with the profile of a home run-hitting running back who would struggle for stretches, in part due to a lack of versatility, but was a threat to make your day with a single carry.

While I don’t think the early season injury is lingering, the first 10 weeks have looked nothing like what we expected. Exactly zero of his 129 touches have gained 30 yards this season, and yet he’s been a steady asset. How, you might ask?

Despite two missed games, he already has set a career-high in receptions. Not only does he look comfortable in this role, but it could expand moving forward if Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s role extends down the field a bit.

Walker bailed you out in the first meeting with the 49ers by catching all eight of his targets (14 carries for 32 yards). This development has elevated his healthy floor to that of an RB2. In the preseason, I would have feared this matchup, and I still do to a degree (-0.03 yards per carry before contact over his past two games). But with the catch count stabilizing, there’s no reason to pivot off of Seattle’s RB1.

Khalil Herbert, RB | CIN (at LAC)

Due to the struggles on the defensive end, the Bengals need to be close to flawless on the offensive end. I mean, we just saw them finish four of their final seven possessions with a touchdown and lose. The margin for error is so thin for this team, and that simply doesn’t give them the luxury of a new player into a meaningful role.

Khalil Herbert mishandled the ball on one of his two snaps on Thursday night and doesn’t need to be held onto right now. That said, if you have an 8-2 team and are looking for a luxury stash, go ahead — he’s probably one injury away from a strong role on an elite offense. Outside of that, however, I’d pass until we see proof that he’s going to assume even the role that once belonged to Zack Moss.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (at NE)

Kyren Williams being held out of the end zone in consecutive games felt like an impossibility in September, but here we are. Efficiency has been a major issue in this profile all season long (-0.09 EPA per rush this season), but we’ve been willing to overlook it because the touchdowns felt like a birthright.

But now? Now we have some problems. Williams is still a weekly starter without much question because the role inside the 10-yard line is all his, and we trust this offense to move the ball. But the rushing résumé isn’t all that impressive.

• Consecutive games without a 10-yard rush
• Yards per carry before contact are down 24.3% from last season
• Yards per carry after contact are down 26.2% from last season

Williams sits closer to RB15 than RB5 for me this week and moving forward, something that felt impossible less than a month ago.

MarShawn Lloyd, RB | GB (at CHI)

MarShawn Lloyd has been designated for return (ankle) and that gives the Packers a three-week window to activate the rookie. I think he can be additive to their postseason dreams, but asking him to matter in fantasy circles is a lot.

Not only has Josh Jacobs enjoyed plenty of success through 10 weeks, Emanuel Wilson (4.6 yards per carry with a 75% catch rate) has had a positive impact. Lloyd might work his way into the RB2 role in this offense, but the fact that it’s a conversation means that we’d be looking at a committee situation if Jacobs were to go down.

At this point in the season, I’m only rostering players in a spot to produce now or step into a meaningful role should a single injury occur – Lloyd doesn’t check either box in my eyes.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. BAL)

An ankle injury is nagging at Najee Harris early this week — that is a situation that requires our attention. Fantasy managers have been enjoying a strong season from Pittsburgh’s RB1, one that has featured more consistency than we’ve seen in years past.

After punching in a touchdown against the Commanders last week, he now has seven straight games with a score or multiple receptions, a profile that is going to bear fantasy fruit more often than not. We saw Harris show out against these Ravens in Week 18 last season (133 yards and a touchdown), but he’s running into the lone strength of this Baltimore defense. That brings in week-ruining potential.

In Washington last weekend, Harris produced 26.7% below fantasy expectations, his worst showing since September, and that came in a game in which he scored (2.5 yards per carry and zero targets).

I have Harris ranked as a low-end RB2 right now, and that’s under the assumption that this ankle injury isn’t overly prohibitive when it comes to his practice status late this week. If that’s not the case, he’ll fall down to a middling Flex rank. For those looking to set lineups ahead of time, I’d rather take my chances on a Cedric Tillman or Jauan Jennings type to round out my starting lineup over Harris right now.

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (at NO)

It’s OK. It’s OK to root for Nick Chubb. His recovery story is a good one, and he’s generally a fun player to watch. At this point, however, your investment has to end there until we see him produce anything close to the elite form that comes to mind when you hear his name.

Entering the Week 10 bye, there were 56 running backs with at least 40 carries this season. Chubb ranked 56th in boom/bust rate (the difference in the percentage of carries gaining at least 10 yards and the percentage of carries failing to gain yardage: -31%).

That might not be entirely Chubb’s fault (he ranks 49th on that list in percentage of carries against a loaded box, Jerome Ford ranks 56th), but for purposes of setting a lineup, I really don’t care where the blame lies.

Could Chubb peak down the stretch of this season? It’s possible given the schedule, but this is a running back approaching his 29th birthday, who plays for a dead team and is a UFA this summer — I’m not optimistic.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (vs. LV)

Raheem Mostert has cleared 30 receiving yards in consecutive games, but his role is trending in the wrong direction and his status as a roster-worthy player might not be here to stay.

Dolphins RB snap shares, Week 10:

• De’Von Achane: 69.8%
• Jaylen Wright: 17%
• Mostert: 15.1%

With Tua Tagovailoa back under center, there is a premium put on speed and tempo, boxes that Achane and Wright check at a higher level than the veteran. There is some scoring equity to chase here, but that’s a dangerous way to live at your Flex spot in a three-back committee that is happy to throw the ball.

Mostert is an injury away from holding Flex value, and that keeps him off of waiver wires for now. However, as we come down the stretch, this isn’t the type of player that needs to be held onto.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. KC)

Since burying the New York Jets in Week 6 with James Cook sidelined, Ray Davis hasn’t played more than 23% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in a single game. He’s the clear handcuff in this offense, and there is value in that if you have a good team that is positioning itself for a deep playoff run.

However, if your team is clawing for every win to qualify for the postseason, you might be forced to make a tough call on a player like Davis. There’s no path to stand-alone value as long as Cook is healthy, and with that currently the case, cutting Davis is reasonable if you’re trying to maximize your Week 11 roster.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. LAR)

Rhamondre Stevenson produced 47% under expectations against the Bears last week, his worst effort since Week 3 against the Jets. He does have five RB1 finishes this season, but his other games have been on the fringe of usability, and that makes him a volatile option that is better Flexed than anything else.

Over his past four games, Stevenson has run 57 times for 156 yards (2.7 yards per carry). Over that stretch, he is not one of the 104 players with a run gaining at least 12 yards. This isn’t an offense I want to bet on if at all possible, but the lead role is Stevenson’s without much concern, and that makes him a low-end starter in most spots.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (vs. HOU)

Ezekiel Elliott likely fumbled away his vulture duties last week, and that positions Rico Dowdle to rank as a fantasy starter every week, albeit a low-end one given the limitations of this offense under Cooper Rush. Mike McCarthy confirmed as much on Thursday:

There is no more running back by committee in Dallas. Mike McCarthy said Rico Dowdle is the Cowboys lead back: “Definitely, you have to get him the ball. That's my focus to continue to get him opportunities. He's the lead back.”

— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) November 14, 2024

Dowdle is coming off his worst showing of the season in terms of production relative to expectations (-30.8%), and the upside is certainly capped with none of his 83 carries gaining 20 yards this season.

That said, volume isn’t easy to find this time of year, and Dowdle should at least offer that this week as Dallas attempts to keep Houston’s offense off the field.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. WAS)

There were no reverse hurdles last week against the Cowboys, but I’d argue that his gaining yardage on 92.9% of his carries is more impactful than a single highlight.

Do I love the fact that Saquon Barkley has been held under 15 receiving yards in four of his past five games or that he has scored just three times on 119 touches after opening his Eagles career with five scores on 73 touches?

No, but that’s nitpicking. Barkley is to be viewed as a locked-and-loaded RB1 with the potential to lead the position in scoring in any given week. The Commanders allow the fourth-most yards per carry this season, making a repeat of his ultra-efficient Week 10 very possible.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (at DET)

Tank Bigsby continues to play through an ankle injury and that is prohibitive for a player that was producing splash plays with regularity earlier this season. He was in and out of the lineup last week, and unless we get a clean health report from practices down the stretch, it’s hard for me to get behind Flexing Bigsby given this offense’s limitations.

Over the past three weeks, 100% of Bigsby’s rushing yards have come after contact — this ankle injury is clearly limiting his ability to hit holes that quickly disappear. As things stand right now, I’m operating under the assumption that we won’t get clarity on his health, and that means he’s outside of the Flex conversation for me in Week 11.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (vs. MIN)

Tony Pollard has multiple catches in every game this season and at least four targets six times. I’d value his versatility more if his backup didn’t also pose a threat in the passing game, thus leaving us a coin-flip as to who gets the most usage in that regard. As for the run game …

Titans rushing production, Week 10:

• Pollard: Nine carries for 44 yards
• Tyjae Spears: Seven carries for 47 yards
• Will Levis: Five carries for 41 yards

Pollard is a low-end Flex play for me this week in a tough spot (MIN: sixth-best EPA defense against the run) with Spears again making this a committee situation. He’s my preferred back in Tennessee at this point, though that’s a bit damning with faint praise in an offense projected to score under 18 points on Sunday.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (at DET)

Travis Etienne Jr. was on the field for 67.4% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps last week, his first game north of 50% since September. The fantasy box score (43 yards on 12 touches) looks much different if his one-yard TD plunge isn’t overturned, but that is the nature of doing business in an offense like this.

Tank Bigsby is dealing with an ankle injury that continues to pull him out of games for extended stretches, and that opens up the door for fringe Flex-worthy volume. If Bigsby is limited, Etienne’s versatility could prove very valuable in a spot where the Jags figure to be playing from behind from the jump.

I don’t love the fact that he doesn’t have a game with more than 13 carries this season, as the team has seemed unwilling to commit to the run, but if Bigsby’s injury forces their hand, I could be talked into moving Etienne inside of my top 25.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (vs. MIN)

After missing three straight games, Tyjae Spears was on the field for a season-high 47.1% of the Titans’ offensive snaps. It’s an interesting development but not one that requires action on your part just yet. We are through 10 weeks, and the next time Spears reaches 11 expected PPR points will be his first. I’m going to need proof that this team views him as a back capable of handling reasonable volume before plugging him in.

That said, his 78.8% career catch rate and this franchise telling us that they value what he can do out of the backfield in space makes Spears an interesting DFS punt play in a tournament setting. I’m not going overboard on him, but if he’s on the field for half of their snaps and the aggressive Vikings force checkdowns in bulk, this is the type of player who could turn his 6-8 touches into 15 PPR points.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (at DEN)

Thank you. Thank you, Tyler Allgeier.

Ever since Bijan Robinson was drafted, we’ve been begging for him to get a bellcow workload, and we may finally get there after Allgeier failed to convert not one, not two, but three straight dives from the one-yard line last week.

The cherry on top? Atlanta went to Robinson on fourth down to finish the job, and he used his athleticism to convert. So, thank you, Allgeier, for finally (hopefully) playing yourself out of an annoying role that wasn’t involved enough to play with confidence but was prohibiting Robinson from accessing his ceiling.

Allgeier hasn’t played 37% of Falcons snaps in four straight games, ending his run as a reasonable Flex play. He’s now in the Jordan Mason/Braelon Allen tier of running back, an encouraging player who is one step away from an RB2 ranking but needs not be considered as long as his RB1 is active.

Tyler Goodson, RB | IND (at NYJ)

Tyler Goodson’s touchdown catch was nice to see, and holding him as a Jonathan Taylor handcuff is fine as long as you’re not operating with any hopes of stand-alone value.

In Week 10’s loss, Goodson was on the field for just 13.1% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps, a role that is very rarely going to return anything close to value. Goodson has established himself as the secondary Colts RB to hold over Trey Sermon, but he’s far from a must-hold if you need to add immediate production to the back end of your roster.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at SF)

I spoke of Kenneth Walker’s expanded role, and the simple-minded fantasy manager would hear that and downgrade Zach Charbonnet in their rankings. But that’s not you, right? You approach this game of ours with an open mind and the willingness to look at things a bit differently.

At no point this season has Charbonnet looked like a player destined to hold standalone value while Walker is active, and the RB1 showcasing versatility eliminated all thoughts of playing his backup. That sounds like a bad thing, but it’s not.

It has stopped you from trying to force Charbonnet into your Flex spot while also ramping up the expectations of the lead back in Seattle’s offense, a role that we know is Charbonnet’s should Walker get injured.

That’s a net positive. You’re only going to play Charbonnet should Walker sit, and that RB1 role is more valuable now than it was two months ago (Charbonnet averaged 16 carries and 4.5 targets in his two games as the primary back). There is no weekly value to chase here, but we are talking about a top-five handcuff, which holds value as we progress through a long season.

Wide Receiver Start-Sit Advice in Week 11

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. WAS)

A.J. Brown turned five catches into 109 yards against the Cowboys last week in the blowout win, the fifth time in six games in which he has cleared 80 yards through the air. This season, Philly’s WR1 has seen an on-field target share of at least 25% four times, an end-zone target in four games, and racked up at least 125 air yards three times.

This offense is versatile, and that brings a floor like what we saw in Week 9 against the Jaguars (2-36-0) into the conversation, but you’re playing him as a WR1 with confidence given his strong connection with Jalen Hurts.

Saquon Barkley will have his weeks where he eats into the receivers’ bottom line, but overall, I view his production as a net gain as it limits the amount of attention that can be paid to Brown down the field.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (at NYJ)

Alec Pierce’s final stat line (4-81-1) against the Bills was encouraging, and if you started him, congratulations.

Don’t count on it.

Not only was Joe Flacco far from consistent, but he didn’t get Pierce fed until the game was decided (33 yards and a touchdown came on the final drive of the one-sided contest). Garbage time isn’t something I expect to be a part of Sunday’s game against the Jets, making Pierce’s 22.5 aDOT for the season an auto-fade.

Through 10 weeks, the Jets are the ninth-best defense in terms of opponent deep completion percentage and the second-best at preventing deep touchdown passes. Pierce has yet to show the ability to consistently earn targets; in this spot, the risk far outweighs the slim chance that he connects on a splash play that earns him double-digit points.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (vs. KC)

Amari Cooper has been a durable player across his decade in the league, but he’s now missed consecutive games with this wrist injury (matching his most missed games in a season for his career).

The situation in Buffalo is tough to handicap. Not only is Keon Coleman also banged up, but we’ve yet to see exactly how this team intends to use Cooper (33.3% of snaps in Week 7 and 50.7% in Week 8 prior to missing time). Combine all of that with a brutal matchup and the bye looming next week, I’m tentatively not planning on having Cooper in my Week 11 lineups.

Don’t take that the wrong way. I’m still awfully bullish on his outlook as the WR1 in Buffalo’s offense; you just might have to show a little more patience before experiencing the benefits.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (vs. JAX)

We praise Khalil Shakir’s efficiency in Buffalo but acknowledge his upside is limited. We love the floor he provides, even if it comes with the understanding that he is unlikely to post a week-altering fantasy point total.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the superhero version of Shakir. He’s scored in a franchise-record seven straight games, hauling in 40 of 43 targets over that stretch. Scoring streaks like this often come from an A.J. Brown type of profile, where he is producing highlight after highlight and benefiting from an elite volume that puts an athlete in a position to dominate.

Not for St. Brown. He’s winning in every single situation, and no defense has figured out how to come even close to slowing him down. In all seven games during this run, St. Brown has produced at least 30% over fantasy expectations. Detroit is getting whatever it wants, whenever it wants it with its WR1.

The list of receivers who could lead the position in fantasy points the rest of the way isn’t long, but it certainly has St. Brown’s name on it.

Andrei Iosivas, WR | CIN (at LAC)

Andrei Iosivas has seen 17.1% of his targets come in the end zone this season, and that has resulted in him hanging onto rosters in many leagues, especially with Tee Higgins missing three straight games (quad). But you can safely move on.

In those three games, with an expanded role, Iosivas has caught three of 11 targets for 39 yards as a part of an offense that has scored 92 points. You were chasing touchdowns and an uptick in snaps. That was fine process-wise, but it hasn’t worked out, and there’s no reason to continue doubling down.

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (vs. HOU)

Brandin Cooks is a name you know, but that doesn’t mean he carries fantasy value. He’s nearing a return to action, but the veteran showed signs of decline last season and, in the four games prior to getting hurt, was averaging a repulsive 0.66 yards per route.

There’s health risk for Cooks, but even at full strength, I’m not sure he is in position to matter. I was ranking Jalen Tolbert ahead of him in September and now Jonathan Mingo is in the mix for an offense led by Cooper Rush.

Hard pass.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (at DET)

I’m ignoring last week from a production standpoint because the Jaguars didn’t have the ball for even 18 minutes, something that rarely happens (it was the lowest time of possession contest this season by more than two full minutes). That limited our ability to truly evaluate what Jacksonville’s offense looks like under Mac Jones — but what we did see was repulsive.

For the day, Jones completed 14 of 22 passes for 111 yards with zero scores and two interceptions. We’ve seen receivers like Calvin Ridley and Courtland Sutton thrive recently despite spotty QB play, but I’m not sure Brian Thomas Jr. is going to be able to do something similar in this offense.

Again, tiny sample, but Gabe Davis earned more targets than BTJ last week, and it’s not as if the rookie has been a consistent force anyway (three games with north of 21 PPR points, and Sunday was his fourth single-digit effort). The talent is real and can be spectacular if given league-average QB play, but that doesn’t seem likely to come in 2024.

I currently have Thomas ranked as a fringe top-40 receiver — not a must-start by any means. In this matchup against an improving Lions defense, I’d rather roll the dice on Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA) or an equally inconsistent profile like Quentin Johnston who at least has more help under center.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (vs. MIN)

If you extend Calvin Ridley’s three games post-DeAndre Hopkins trade for a full season: 114 catches for 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns.

I’m not expecting him to continue that level of production, the quarterback play is simply too sporadic. But it seems that Tennessee’s offense is finally running through their most talented player.

The 16.3 aDOT is going to result in peaks and valleys, but with a target share north of 38% over this three-week run, the sheer volume can overcome signal-caller inconsistencies.

The Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase tandem creates special plays based on their connection while Amon-Ra St. Brown’s surgical route running is a pleasure to watch. Ridley with these Titans isn’t the greatest watch, but at the end of 60 minutes, I expect top-30 numbers to be there consistently for the remainder of the season.

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (at NO)

Cedric Tillman has been on the field for over 80% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps over their past three games after failing to reach 40% in each of the first six weeks. And guess what the 6’3” 24-year-old has done with the opportunity?

• Three straight top-12 finishes
• One end-zone target in every game
• 140.8 air yards per game

That sort of production doesn’t happen by accident, and I don’t think it just dries up barring significant changes. That first note is something that CeeDee Lamb and Drake London have not accomplished this season.

I don’t have Tillman ranked as a WR1, but I have a hard time thinking you have three pass catchers who grade out better for me this week. That makes Cleveland’s budding star a starter across most, if not all, formats.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (vs. HOU)

Surprise Injury Development – Saturday, November 16
Lamb was added to the injury report Saturday with a back injury and is listed as questionable for Monday’s contest against the Texans.

This is a significant development, given Lamb did not appear on the injury report at any point throughout the week. Given Lamb’s status as one of the best wide receivers in the league and his surprising injury development, fantasy managers should expect at least one more update before the games kick off on Sunday.

Head coach Mike McCarthy suggested he wasn’t worried about Lamb’s status. The All-Pro was added to the injury report Saturday with a back injury. “I’m not of high concern” about Monday’s status.

This is obviously encouraging, given Lamb’s status will bear the utmost importance being the final game of the Week 11 slate, but fantasy managers should still be looking for more information. The fifth-year wide receiver has missed just one game in his career, all the way back in the 2021-22 season.

Start/Sit Advice
In Cooper Rush’s first start of the season, CeeDee Lamb posted the fourth-worst game of his career in terms of production relative to expectation, minimum six targets (-55.9%).

Is the quarterback to blame? The lack of offensive balance? The sun?

I’m concerned about Lamb’s value moving forward, but there’s nothing actionable. You don’t have three receivers who will project better.

The Texans had allowed 10 receivers to clear 17 PPR points in a game this season, including four in the past three weeks (Josh Downs, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

I’ve docked Lamb in my rest-of-season rankings with this being the Rush show the rest of the way, but his raw talent is still enough to require you to start him weekly, and I still think there is a top-three upside in this profile.

Chris Olave, WR | NO (vs. CLE)

Chris Olave (concussion) was inactive last week and might have well played his final snap of the season after being placed on IR. As of posting, we don’t know that to be 100% true, so you’ll want to hold tight in the short term, though you should be preparing for the worst.

The peaks and valleys are there within Olave’s profile, but with limited support under center, Olave’s stat lines look about as stable year over year as you could ask for.

• 2022: 0.8% over expectation (2.4 yards per route)
• 2023: 0.1% over expectation (2.1 yards per route)
• 2024: 2.2% over expectation (2.2 yards per route)

Olave was a late-second/early-third-round pick across the major platforms this summer. While I think his talent is deserving of such trust, having just 10 touchdown catches through three seasons, and the bad taste from this season, is likely to drop him 2-3 rounds (roughly where DJ Moore was drafted this year).

We are a long way away from having to make that decision, but if that estimation is accurate, I’ll be buying the dip.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (at CHI)

A player with the skill set of Christian Watson (27 end-zone targets in 31 career games) in an offense we grade with top-10 upside is always going to be of interest to me when it comes to stashing. However, I can’t get behind starting him in any capacity until we see some proof of concept.

The volume has been acceptable of late (15 targets over his past three games). Watson’s never been a high-opportunity earner, and with just 87 yards and zero touchdowns to show for it, I can’t get there in a less-than-ideal matchup.

The Bears are attacked downfield with one of the 10 highest opponent average depth of throws, but with a top-five mark in preventing end-zone completions, I worry that we don’t get the single big play that we need for Watson to finish as a top-30 wide receiver.

The Green Bay burner has yet to have a game with 12 expected PPR points this season. Keep Watson rostered since he offers as much upside as anyone in this range moving forward with the bye week now in the rearview. But nothing in his profile justifies a ton of Week 11 confidence.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (at NE)

We’ve yet to see the history-setting version of Cooper Kupp this season, but there’s a chance he peaks at the perfect time, as he is coming off of his best game relative to fantasy expectations (+33.6%).

In the loss to the Dolphins, Kupp’s fantasy points per target and EPA per target were both as good as they’ve been this season — trends that I’m willing to buy into.

This is a condensed passing game, which is the type of structure that can allow both Kupp and Puka Nacua to return top-15 value at the position moving forward. In Week 10, that dynamic duo accounted for 60.8% of Los Angeles’ receiving yards. The Rams have struggled to move the ball with consistency on the ground, which opens up even greater usage for both of their star receivers.

Los Angeles remains in a competitive spot and will be pushing hard for the next three weeks, understanding that they have the Bills and 49ers in a five-day stretch come December. You drafted Kupp with the potential that he could take over for weeks at a time, and we seem to be circling such a performance.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (vs. ATL)

Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Those are just three of the receivers this season without back-to-back top-10 performances — not included on that list is Courtland Sutton after consecutive big weeks (total: 13 catches for 192 yards and a touchdown) as he continues to show growth alongside Bo Nix.

His 32-yard score last week came on a third-down play where the Broncos showed off their willingness to be aggressive in analytically wise spots. You love to see it.

Denver leads the league in average starting field position this season, just another boost when it comes to projecting Sutton’s ability to sustain what he’s been doing lately.

I don’t have him ranked as a top-10 option, but he is a WR2 for me across all formats against the worst defense in terms of opponent completion percentage (70.3%). Also, this game could go over its projected point total if one of the explosive playmakers on either team lands a big play early to encourage offensive aggression.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (at CAR)

Darius Slayton (concussion) missed his first game of the season and just his second since the start of 2022 last week, an absence that shouldn’t have impacted fantasy managers in a significant way.

Slayton has the size/speed combination it takes to land splash plays in the NFL (15.1 yards per catch across his 85 games), but he’s pretty solidly a Malik Nabers handcuff these days and nothing more.

With Nabers on the field:

• 234 routes
• 27 targets
• 46 PPR fantasy points

Without Nabers on the field:

• 89 routes
• 23 targets
• 40 PPR fantasy points

Generally speaking, I don’t find myself rostering players like this at the receiver position since there are always dart-throw types available on the wire. I’d rather turn and burn this roster spot for weekly upside, but if you’re comfortable with your team, I can’t argue that Slayton is closer to a top-35 ranking from me than anyone else in your free agent pool.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (at DEN)

I didn’t think Darnell Mooney joining the Falcons was an impactful move this summer, and I could not have been more wrong. He’s been nothing short of great for Atlanta and fantasy managers alike, something that appears here to stay for the rest of the fantasy season.

Last week, he was targeted on five of Kirk Cousins’ first eight passes, a run that included a 33-yard grab that landed this offense on the one-yard line where he was trusted to battle through single coverage. That’s not the Mooney we knew coming into 2024, but it’s the version we’ve seen for the past 10 weeks and have come to love.

He’s cleared 105 air yards in five of his past seven games and has finished as a WR2 or better in three straight, a roll I like to continue in this spot. The Broncos are as aggressive as anyone on the defensive end (first in blitz rate and fourth in pressure rate), and that should put a smile on your face.

Drake London when Kirk Cousins is pressured:

• 23 targets
• 13 catches
• 159 yards
• Zero TDs

Mooney when Cousins is pressured:

• 21 targets
• 11 catches
• 268 yards
• Four TDs

Mooney ranks in the same tier as players who entered 2024 with far more name value than him (Garrett Wilson, Tee Higgins, and Amari Cooper), and he more than deserves the high praise.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (vs. IND)

​​Davante Adams hasn’t quite exploded the way we had hoped since joining the Jets. OK, so that’s undershooting it — his production simply hasn’t been acceptable and could sink your season if extended.

Adams’ efficiency, 2024:

• Las Vegas Raiders: 5.6% production under expectations
• New York Jets: 32.9% production under expectations

You’re trusting the process here and hoping the numbers pan out with time. Adams had multiple chances to score last week (of three end-zone targets, one was tipped and another was a miss from Aaron Rodgers) and has commanded an on-field target share north of 34% in consecutive weeks.

Investing in this offense isn’t the most comfortable click these days, so I’m not going to blame you if you look elsewhere in DFS. However, with the Colts allowing the fourth-highest completion percentage this season (68.9%) and volume not a worry, I’m playing him in all season-long formats without much question.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (at BUF)

DeAndre Hopkins was the star of Week 9 with the Monday night breakthrough performance against the Buccaneers (8-86-2), but his production in Week 10 left fantasy managers wanting more (4-56-0). He earned a 16.7% on-field target share against the Broncos, his lowest since joining the Chiefs, but not every team has a Pat Surtain II on the roster.

Even in a tough game, Hopkins was the target of an end-zone pass, and I’ll take my chances any time that is the case. This is a low-octane offense that will struggle to hit ceilings like it did in Week 9, but the usage generally has been fine for Hopkins, and that’s enough for me to consider him a viable WR2 most weeks.

Buffalo is a strong defense against perimeter receivers, and that could put a bit of a cap on Hopkins. However, they are allowing the eighth-highest red-zone completion percentage (62%; NFL average: 55.5%), and that gives K.C.’s WR1 the potential to bail you out if needed.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (vs. SEA)

Deebo Samuel Sr. is experiencing a bit of a role change; while I have questions about its impact on his consistency for the remainder of the season, I’m not worried about this matchup against a divisional opponent he has destroyed throughout his career.

Samuel’s aDOT is up 23.3% from last season, and that has resulted in a dip in efficiency. Can he continue to land the big plays in this role? This season, he has a gain of 25+ yards in six of seven healthy games, so the early returns are a resounding ‘Yes,’ though any time the ball is in the air longer than it is in his hands creates a natural downside, no matter what you think of Samuel.

The risk is minimal when you consider that Samuel is a uniquely talented player who has at least three carries in each of his past four healthy games, including Christian McCaffrey’s season debut last week. I love that Samuel has four red-zone touches over his past two games and I love it even more as a trend he is taking into a plus spot.

The Seahawks are allowing the ninth-most yards per catch after the reception, making them vulnerable to yet another Samuel explosion spot.

Samuel vs. Seahawks, career:

• Week 6, 2024: 20.7 PPR points
• Week 14, 2023: 34 PPR points
• Week 12, 2023: 22.4 PPR points
• Week 2, 2022: 14.7 PPR points
• Week 4, 2021: 35.7 PPR points

He’s overachieved expectations by over 14% in all of those games, averaging 2.6 fantasy points per target in the process. Samuel is in the WR1 conversation this week, and we know that he hits big when he hits. I expect McCaffrey to attract a lot of DFS attention, and that could leave his explosive teammate under-owned for what his profile suggests is possible.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (at NE)

Demarcus Robinson was kept on rosters in most of my leagues after he scored multiple touchdowns in consecutive games following the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but I think we can stop it with that charade.

This offense is highly concentrated around three players, and Robinson isn’t one of them. He made a nice play on the sideline last week against the Dolphins, but that was his only touch of the evening as Matthew Stafford was much more efficient when targeting anyone else.

Rams WR catch rates, Week 10 vs. Dolphins:

• Robinson: 20% catch rate
• All other Rams: 79.5% catch rate

If you have the room on your roster, Robinson profiles as the rare receiver handcuff to both Nacua and Kupp, but the standalone value was always going to be a pipe dream.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (vs. LAR)

DeMario Douglas is the type of player that I like when it comes to Drake Maye’s development, but I don’t have him ranked as a viable option right now. He’s seen an on-field target share north of 27% in four of his past six games and has seen 81.9% of his targets come in the slot this season.

However, the elevated floor doesn’t come with enough of a ceiling outcome to make Douglas a worthwhile play in anything but the deepest of leagues.

DeVonta Smith, WR| PHI (vs. WAS)

DeVonta Smith delivered a stinker last week in Dallas (two catches for 14 yards), but that is part of the business you invested in when you drafted Philadelphia’s WR2.

He’s posted an on-field target share under 19% in four of his past five games, making his range of outcomes a scary one. But with six top-25 finishes on his ledger for 2024, the risk is worth the reward.

Smith hauled in seven passes in both games against the Commanders last season, and while I’m not projecting safe volume, I do think a return to low-end WR2 status is likely in what should be a fun kickoff to Week 11.

Diontae Johnson, WR | BAL (at PIT)

Not all Super Bowl contenders are created equal, and the 2024 trade deadline serves as a good reminder. The Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens all added a receiver with a strong NFL résumé — none of them for the same reason.

While DeAndre Hopkins was brought in to give the Chiefs upside and Amari Cooper to add a wrinkle for Josh Allen, Diontae Johnson was — a vanity move for the Ravens?

Ravens WRs route totals, Week 10:

• Zay Flowers: 33
• Rashod Bateman: 30
• Nelson Agholor: 19
• Tylan Wallace: Five
• Johnson: Three

OK, so maybe that’s a bit dramatic, but it would appear that the Ravens added talent without a clear picture as to how to use it. Johnson adds talent to a team that could win it all this season, but that doesn’t mean he’s a fantasy asset.

We were confident that the worst case for Johnson was the WR3 role in this offense, but in his second week with the team, he ranked fifth among the receivers in routes. Why would we think that changes? Forget moving ahead of Agholor or Bateman, Wallace turned his five routes into three catches, including a tightrope 84-yard score.

What’s the upside? You can’t justify playing him this week, and the skeptic in me wouldn’t rank him as a top-30 option in Week 12, even if he were to see a usage spike this weekend. That would make Week 13 (vs. Eagles) the most optimistic of optimistic cases for him to even garner lineup interest. That game profiles as a low-possession game with both teams more than willing to operate with a running clock. After that? Week 14 bye.

For me, Johnson is a luxury stash at best. If your team is loaded and you want to hold, that’s a viable approach. But if you’re begging and borrowing to win on a weekly basis, this isn’t a profile that you want to roster.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (vs. GB)

DJ Moore took full advantage of a favorable matchup against the Panthers in Week 5, and he doesn’t have to apologize for that. If you extend his other eight games for an entire season, we are talking about a receiver with 623 yards and two touchdowns.

That’s not a roster-worthy profile.

I understand that Moore was a star last season, but this is a completely different situation, and he doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near starting lineups. His aDOT is down 21% from last season, and that change in role hasn’t at all made him more efficient.

In 2023, Moore produced 23% over fantasy expectations. Through 10 weeks this season, he’s checking in 15.1% below expectations. Even in a strong year, he only recorded six catches across two games with the Packers. Your waiver wire may be bare, so I don’t blame you for keeping Moore on the back end of your roster — but that’s as optimistic as I can get.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (at SF)

It’s been a rough run of late for DK Metcalf managers (consecutive DNPs leading into the Week 10 bye), but reporting out of Seattle is optimistic for his Week 11 status in this divisional showdown.

Is the upside the same for Metcalf as it has been in the past? I’d argue no. His targets per red zone route run is down to 20.8% after posting three seasons north of 32%, and with Geno Smith playing inconsistent ball (as many games with a sub-5.5-yard aDOT as over 8.5 yards), there is more volatility in this profile than years past.

That said, we are talking about one of the premier athletes who is averaging a career-high 125.1 air yards per game. The matchup isn’t ideal (4.4 yards per target for Metcalf in the Week 6 meeting), but given the state of the receiver position these days, you’re playing him and not thinking twice about it.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (at CHI)

The logic behind projecting a breakout season for Dontayvion Wicks this preseason was solid. It looked good early with a 59.5% snap share through the first five weeks. However, with that rate tanking to 34.5%, there isn’t enough in the way of opportunity to consider trotting him out there as a Flex play in anything but a desperation spot.

That said, Wicks should remain rostered due to the touchdown equity. We know this Packers offense frequents the red zone, and he’s as good a bet as any to see looks in scoring position (end-zone target in three of his past four games and he earned four such looks in the Week 4 loss to the Vikings alone).

It’s not exactly the same, but I’m treating Wicks like I would a touchdown-vulture running back — not enough volume to project favorably, but enough upside to be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.

Drake London, WR | ATL (at DEN)

Drake London has developed into one of the more consistent receivers in our game (four straight top-15 finishes) after an underwhelming start (zero such games previously), and nothing in his profile suggests that the good times are going to end any time soon.

Kirk Cousins has fired an end-zone target in the direction of his unquestioned WR1 in five straight games, giving London plenty of scoring equity. The upside boost is worth very little if it doesn’t come with a reasonable floor, something that we are also getting from the 2024 version of this Falcons offense.

London is operating out of the slot on the majority of his routes, and given how productive he is from that spot on the field (2.1 fantasy points per slot target and 3.5 yards per slot route), I have no reservations about ranking him as a top-15 option.

Will the looming shadow of Pat Surtain II limit his upside? It’s possible, but I’m willing to bet on the creativity and versatility of this offense; if this matchup results in suppressed ownership in the DFS streets, I’m going to be overweight in a major way when it comes to the percentage of lineups with London driving the ship.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (vs. IND)

Garrett Wilson’s volume, like seemingly every other meaningful player on this Jets team, is in flux. How is this team going to function the rest of the way? Is Aaron Rodgers going to remain bought in with New York’s playoff hopes being a thing of the past?

Those are concerns long-term but not things that I’m too worried about this weekend. In a small sample, Wilson’s per-target numbers have been encouraging alongside Davante Adams (compared to snaps without Adams on the field this season, Wilson’s yards per route are up 14.4% and his aDOT is up 23.9%). However, as you’d assume, the process of earning those looks has been a bit of a struggle.

With Adams on the field:

• 22.6% on-field target share
• 19% red-zone target rate

Without Adams on the field:

• 27.8% on-field target share
• 32.4% red-zone target rate

The Colts struggle to generate duress (26th in pressure rate), and that potentially gives Wilson time to work down the field. For better or worse, I don’t think we see 8.2 yards per catch like we did last week in Arizona. That, of course, means a wider range of outcomes to be aware of, but I’m willing to buy in as a low-end WR2 in the same range as a Darnell Mooney type.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (vs. BAL)

A receiver has cleared 21 PPR fantasy points seven times against the Ravens this season, and they check in on average just under 6’2” (all of them being at least 6′). Enter the 6’3” George Pickens and his upward-trending stock since Russell Wilson took over this offense.

Pickens’ production vs. expectations, 2024:

Weeks 1-6: +9%
Weeks 7-10: +34.3%

Pickens has seen five end-zone targets in those three games, the most recent of which was a highlight-reel 16-yard score last week. Pittsburgh is dialing back his slot usage and simply asking him to flip the field and/or change the score with his high-end athleticism.

I think the acquisition of Mike Williams is further proof of their intentions when it comes to Pickens — they are betting on Wilson to keep defenses honest with a big threat on the other side. Whatever fraction of a target that comes off of Pickens’ projection moving forward due to Williams’ presence is, in my opinion, more than paid back by an increase in the quality of the targets that result from safeties having to respect the other side of the field.

Pickens is locked into my top 10 this week and will not be a chalky piece in the DFS streets that I’m fading.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (at MIA)

As we grow older, we learn that not all calories are created equal. Some foods offer more value to your body than others, even if one specific category reads the same. Five catches in five straight games in most spots would result in that player garnering top-25 interest in my rankings. But the empty-calorie nature of Jakobi Meyers’ targets has me treating him like any health nut would Pop-Tarts.

Avoid.

I think Meyers is a good player and would love to see him given the ability to thrive elsewhere, but betting on this Raiders offense is something I’m getting less comfortable doing weekly as the importance of every fantasy matchup rises. Despite the volume, Meyers has reached triple digits in air yards just once this season and has three games this season without a red-zone target (two of which saw him not even run a route inside the opponents’ 20-yard line).

Woof.

If you’re in a bind and need a reasonable floor in a PPR setting, I could see squinting your way to getting him into your lineup. But without much of a ceiling, I’m looking elsewhere in most situations.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (vs. HOU)

Trading a fourth-round pick for Jonathan Mingo was rumored to be a result of this organization being high on the 2023 second-round pick, but could it not also be read as a lack of confidence in Jalen Tolbert (a third-round pick the year before)?

Mingo wasn’t on the field last week, and that meant another strong snap share for Tolbert (94.6%). I don’t know about you, but my leagues don’t reward snaps. Tolbert posted his second straight game with under 20 receiving yards (45+ yards just twice this season). All signs for this offense as a whole are trending in the wrong direction and that, for me, rules out any hope of a WR2 emerging as a meaningful fantasy asset.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (at LAC)

Somehow, 55.4 PPR points feel like it undershot just how dominant Ja’Marr Chase was against the Ravens on Thursday night.

• 17 targets
• 11 catches
• 264 yards (4.5 yards per route)
• Three touchdowns

Would you believe me if I told you that Week 10 was Chase’s third-best performance of the season when comparing his actual production to expectations (+83.3%)?

• Week 3 vs. Washington Commanders: +133.4%
• Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens: +115.4%

You’re playing Chase and doing so with the utmost confidence, but I laid out the schedule-based case for selling Joe Burrow at the peak of his powers. I actually think that’s the play here as well.

Over the past three weeks, without Tee Higgins, Chase has been targeted on at least 27.5% of his routes in every game. By no means does he have to apologize for that, but in the scope projecting forward, it’s not likely to stick. His target rate was under 21.5% in six of seven games prior to the injury.

You’re not selling him for peanuts, obviously. Heck, you’re not selling him for steak. But if you can get a Wagyu cut with a nice glass of wine? I’m entertaining the idea. Maybe Jayden Reed (bye week behind him, Seahawks-Saints-Vikings finishing kick to the fantasy season) and another player who you’re starting every single week?

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (vs. JAX)

Jameson Williams returned from his two-game PES suspension on Sunday night and gave us … well, he gave us essentially spot-on what his season averages tell us to expect (three catches for 53 yards).

That may sound underwhelming, but that’s on you if you’re expecting more. We were all encouraged by what we saw early in the season, but on a per-game basis, Williams is giving us 2.9 catches for 59.1 yards. He hasn’t taken the leap forward that we expected, and I’d argue that he is closer to regressing than progressing.

In Year 2, his catch rate is identical to what it was in Year 1 (57.1%) with a near mirror image in terms of aDOT (15.6 yards this season, 15.8 last). The hot start to the season was nice, but that’s proven to very much be the outlier and not the norm. In his five games since, he’s earned a target on just 12.5% of routes, a rate below what he produced as a rookie (17.5%).

Now, he did make a few tough catches that proved critical in Detroit’s comeback win last week, and maybe that sparks something, but he’s firmly in the “I need to see it” tier.

He could show us something against a Jags defense that allows the second most yards per deep pass attempt through 10 weeks (16.5), and I’m fine with you considering him as a Flex option, I’m just not saying you have to (I have Ladd McConkey and Cedric Tillman ranked just ahead of him as a part of the same tier).

Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (vs. SEA)

Jauan Jennings returned last week (hip) and made his presence known by leading the 49ers in catches (three), targets (five), and receiving yards (59) in the first half. He didn’t slow down after intermission and the scripted plays ran out, finishing with seven grabs for 93 yards on a 32.4% target share.

49ers WR snap shares, Week 10:

• Jennings: 90.2%
• Deebo Samuel Sr.: 78.7%
• Ricky Pearsall: 62.3%

Everything in his statistical profile reflects that Jennings is a good player — not just a good fill-in for Brandon Aiyuk but a sustainably productive receiver in this league who just happens to be a part of a loaded roster.

In Tampa Bay last week, Brock Purdy threw seven passes to the slot and five went to Jennings. Generally speaking, I love having that role on my roster, but this matchup gives me pause. Through 10 weeks, the Seahawks have been the best defense when it comes to limiting slot production, allowing just 5.8 yards per attempt to that spot on the field, half a yard clear of any other unit in the league.

This is a highly efficient offense that doesn’t need to challenge the strengths of opposing defenses, and that works in a bit more of a floor this week than I’d normally assign Jennings. For DFS, I’ll be looking elsewhere, but for season-long play, I still think he is a viable Flex option ranking alongside the likes of his counterpart in this game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (at SF)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off the best game of his young career (Week 9 vs. LAR: seven catches for 180 yards and two scores) and has seen 20 targets over a two-game stretch for the first time as a pro.

We entered the season with optimism around this 2023 first-round pick, and he’s beginning to realize that potential at a high level. Can it stick?

Production with DK Metcalf on the field, 2024:

• 11.9% under expectation
• 6.6 aDOT
• Four TDs on 131 targets

Production with Metcalf on the field, 2024:

• 27.6% over expectation
• 13.6 aDOT
• Three TDs on 37 targets

That’s not to say he can’t produce alongside Metcalf, I very much think he can, but we’ve yet to see it. My hope is that what he did in Week 9 was enough for Geno Smith and this offense to structure his usage a bit differently moving forward. But my “hope” doesn’t always translate into fantasy points, and that is why I’m hedging my ranking a little bit.

I’ve got JSN ranked as fringe WR2 as I have to bake in the risk of his aDOT regressing and this difficult matchup. For the record, I’m playing him where I have him, but we can’t just assume that what we last saw is sticky.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (at CHI)

If you think Jayden Reed is difficult to nail down, you’re not alone. Not only am I in your camp, but it would appear that the Packers are as well.

• Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -1.8 aDOT
• Week 7 vs. Houston Texans: 9.0 aDOT
• Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.0 aDOT
• Week 9 vs. Detroit Lions: 15.2 aDOT

On one hand, I’m encouraged that this offense is willing to explore Reed’s versatility, but a fluid role like this can bring in more risk than I had penciled into this profile entering the season. That said, I think we are safe to operate with optimism this weekend.

The Bears are vulnerable more in the slot than out wide in terms of efficiency (though they don’t give up touchdowns), and Reed has accounted for 45.5% of the Packers’ slot receptions this season. He’s to be viewed as a rock-solid WR2 with WR1 upside if, coming out of the bye, this team elects to funnel more looks in the direction of their star pass catcher (he hasn’t seen more than six targets in a game since September).

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (vs. LV)

Jaylen Waddle picked up 55 yards on Monday night’s first drive, a total he hadn’t reached since Week 1 and more than his previous three games combined; I thought the breakthrough game was upon us.

No dice.

He caught one ball for two yards the rest of the evening. That means that, aside from a single scripted drive to open Week 10, Waddle’s last four games have featured 118 routes run, nine catches, and 54 yards. That’s not just bad by Waddle’s standards but about as bad as it gets by any measure. That 0.46 yards per route run rate is on par with Mason Tipton and Parris Campbell this season.

Almost every player goes through ups and downs throughout a season, but this one is difficult to figure out because nothing in his profile has changed dramatically. His average depth of target, slot usage, and snap share are all in line with what we’d expect, but Waddle just isn’t producing.

Could that change against a Raiders defense that is in the bottom 10 in passer rating and touchdown rate? It could, but at this point, I’d prefer to see it before continuing to bet on it. Waddle ranks as a middling Flex play for me, even in a good matchup this week, sharing a tier with Jameson Williams (vs. JAX), Calvin Ridley (vs. MIN), and Jauan Jennings (vs. SEA).

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (at NO)

Jerry Jeudy still hasn’t found paydirt since scoring Cleveland’s first touchdown of the season. However, like the rest of the Browns, there is a more clean path to fantasy viability with Jameis Winston under center.

• Weeks 1-7: 80.1 air yards per game and 15.2% on-field target share
• Weeks 8-9: 117.0 air yards per game and 19.2% on-field target share

I’m not suggesting that banking on a Jeudy breakout game is ever going to be a great idea, but the breadcrumbs are being laid and enough trends are moving in the right direction to consider him in specific situations.

This Cleveland schedule is a friendly one for the fantasy postseason, making a player like this a good player to roster, even if you don’t plan on playing him routinely. Jeudy is a low-end Flex play, a viable option if you’re without Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr. this week.

Jonathan Mingo, WR | DAL (vs. HOU)

On the surface, the Cowboys paying a DeAndre Hopkins price tag for Jonathan Mingo had my attention, but with Dak Prescott out and Cooper Rush needing 23 pass attempts to pick up — checks notes — 45 passing yards, my attention is gone.

Maybe Mingo is unlocked in some new fashion with him apparently atop Jerry Jones’ wish list, but even if you’re going to bet on that, it’s more of a play in 2025 than 2024. There isn’t a secondary receiver that needs to be on fantasy rosters in Dallas this week or for the remainder of the season.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at TEN)

I understand that we are in an era of football that places importance on offensive production, but that doesn’t mean that every team needs to have two viable receivers.

Jordan Addison paid off the excitement that followed him out of USC last season with 10 scores, but the league has adjusted to him; as a result, he’s not in the Flex conversation in any matchup.

In four straight games (and in five of his past six), Addison has failed to reach an on-field target share of 15%, a trend I don’t see reversing as T.J. Hockenson works toward full strength. The inability to earn consistent looks means you’re banking on a single home-run play against the top defense in terms of opponent yards per deep pass.

Good luck with that.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (at NYJ)

Josh Downs has a boring name and plays for a spotty offense. He’s unlikely to make a play that leads “SportsCenter,” and he’s not going to have the game Ja’Marr Chase had in Week 10 that decided matchups before they really began.

But he’s great and should be started with the utmost confidence. He put a nine-yard touchdown on the turf last week, and that hurt your chances of winning that matchup, but it’s not impacting what I think of Downs moving forward.

Instead, I’m buying into the game script that had Downs targeted on four of Joe Flacco’s first seven passes. Instead, I’m buying into the player who has posted a role with 14.5+ expected PPR points in three straight and in six of his past seven.

The Jets’ defense remains the strength of the team, and that might only ramp up Downs’ role. Flacco showed last week that he is more than capable of making poor decisions, something that could lead to a conservative/thoughtful approach this weekend. The Jets are one of three teams yet to intercept a slot pass this season, making balls thrown to Downs come with less risk than normal.

I have him ranked as a top-20 receiver this week and moving forward. The Colts get the Giants in Week 17 during your fantasy Super Bowl. I think Downs is going to be on more than a few championship rosters when all is said and done.

Josh Reynolds, WR | DEN (vs. ATL)

Josh Reynolds (finger surgery) has been designated to return from injured reserve and that is a nice boost for this offense, but doesn’t move the needle for fantasy purposes.

• Do you know who the second receiver in Denver is in terms of receiving yards?
• Do you know where he ranks league-wide in receiving yards?

The answers are Lil’Jordan Humphrey and 129th (211 receiving yards). I’m as encouraged as anyone by the play of Bo Nix, but I’m not betting on him sustaining a WR2 next to Courtland Sutton.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (vs. CIN)

Joshua Palmer is exactly what you think he is, and there’s a level of comfort in that. He has yet to earn more than five targets in a game, creating a terrifyingly low floor, but at least there’s a ceiling to chase (19.5+ aDOT in three straight games).

When it comes to dart throws on your waiver wire, Palmer is a fine option against a Bengals defense that ranks 22nd in both opponent pass TD rate and pressure percentage. There is no shortage of players like this (Mike Williams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling come to mind), but I like having a player like this on my bench in case of emergency while understanding that they are highly unlikely to ever rank as a strong Flex play.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at BUF)

JuJu Smith-Schuster was unable to practice at all last week and has now been sidelined since Week 7 with, you guessed it, a hamstring injury. We saw one good game from the slot receiver (7-130-0 against the Saints over a month ago) and got excited about what he could be in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but those days are behind us.

Not only has DeAndre Hopkins shown comfort, but Isiah Pacheco is due back sooner than later, leaving a low-volume role at best for a banged-up receiver who hasn’t produced viable fantasy numbers in 1.5 years. If you’re holding onto Smith-Schuster as a way to be tied to this Kansas City offense, you can pretty safely stop doing so across all formats.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at TEN)

I don’t want to hear it. In a year where receiver injuries are as prevalent as ever and some bad quarterback situations (be it due to a lack of health or talent) have limited WR production, I don’t want to hear it from the sad Justin Jefferson manager who lost in Week 10 because their first-round pick only gave them 9.8 PPR points on nine targets against the Jaguars.

Sure, it was his worst finish of the season, and yes, I had him projected for close to double that … but relax. Jefferson is without question one of the top receivers in the sport. Even with Sam Darnold’s profile starting to show some cracks, I have no issue with labeling his WR1 as an elite option.

In fact, I’d go as far as to say that the usage last week was just fine — you just ran cold with the production. Three of the four targets that hit the ground were looks in the end zone for Jefferson. If one of them connects, this is a different story.

It was his first game this season with multiple end-zone looks, and if you gave me his exact profile (nine targets, three end-zone looks, and a one-possession game against a bottom-tier defense), I’d rank him as the WR1 for the week.

You worrying about Jefferson is Taylor Swift spending an afternoon sweating out penny stocks.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (vs. GB)

If not for his résumé, would Keenan Allen be as rostered as he is?

That’s a rhetorical question, in part because this is a written medium and I can’t hear your answer, and in part because the answer is clear. No. The man has turned 23 targets into just 11 catches and 119 yards during Chicago’s three-game skid. Heck, he’s yet to reach 45 receiving yards as a member of this organization — at the age of 32, we have to start asking the Father Time questions.

On the plus side, he is involved when this team gets in scoring positions, as he leads the team with seven end-zone targets this season. I could also tell you that my wife has the best handwriting in a family full of doctors … does it really matter? The Bears have reached the red zone on just 21% of their drives, a rate that ranks 31st in the league (shoutout to the Browns) and something that renders that skill close to useless.

I have Allen ranked as a fringe top-50 receiver this week, with the only saving grace being that I expect a positive game script, but you’re reaching if you’re this low in the ranks.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. KC)

Keon Coleman, like fellow WR1 candidate Amari Cooper, was inactive for Week 10 with a wrist injury, halting some of the momentum he had gained in the three weeks prior.

• Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans: 36.7% over expectation
• Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks: 25.9% over expectation
• Week 9 vs. Miami Dolphins: 42.5% over expectation

We still don’t have much context when it comes to how Coleman will be used next to Cooper (most of his big plays since the trade have come with the former Brown off the field), and the target earning has been spotty at best (more games with a single-digit target share than one at 20% or higher).

Generally speaking, I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen in terms of development from Coleman, but I’m going to need proof of concept before considering him for my lineup. He was ruled out on Monday for this week, a bad omen for his stock moving forward — I’m keeping him rostered due to his proximity to targets in a top-10 offense, though I’ll admit that my expectations are low.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. KC)

In terms of advanced metrics, Khalil Shakir didn’t have a solid Week 10. He recorded his first negative EPA per target rate of the season, but PPR managers can’t complain with a fourth straight game with 6+ receptions, a role that feels about as safe as any in the league.

Keon Coleman (already ruled out for Week 11) and Amari Cooper were both sidelined last week with wrist injuries, though I’m not sure that significantly impacts what Shakir does for this offense. Should Cooper return to the field this week, my PPR WR2 ranking of Shakir won’t meaningfully change; I view him as an extension of the running game and value his connection with Josh Allen.

The vaunted Chiefs defense is every bit as good as you think it is, but it has allowed the second-highest passer rating to the slot through 10 weeks (122.8, only the Commanders have been worse). That has me labeling Shakir’s Week 10 stat line (6-58-0) as something of a floor, and that’s startable.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (vs. CIN)

This Chargers offense opening up is enough to keep Ladd McConkey on Flex radars for the remainder of the season, but I don’t like him as much as the rest of the industry does this week.

First of all, what was last week? I like McConkey as the WR1 in this offense, but players in that role rarely go through an entire game seeing a target on just 9.5% of their routes. I’m not calling it predictive yet, but that floor is scary for a rookie receiver who is naturally at risk of NFL defenses adjusting to how they cover him.

The slightly less obvious pivot point is the matchup. No, I’m not going to sell you the Bengals as anything besides a vulnerable unit, but they allow the sixth-fewest yards per completion to the slot this season. Cincinnati can be had elsewhere (and by “elsewhere,” I mean “everywhere else”), but I don’t think he’s positioned as well as you’d assume as 69.3% of McConkey’s routes since Week 4 have come in the slot.

For me, he’s in the Jaylen Waddle/Flex-if-forced tier. For reference, I’m starting Cedric Tillman over him this week and would play Tank Dell over him as well, regardless of Nico Collins’ status for Monday night.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR | NO (vs. CLE)

It’s easy to connect the dots and say that Marquez Valdes-Scantling can be 85% of what Rashid Shaheed was for this offense after he turned three targets into 25.9 PPR points.

Be careful.

It should go without saying, but I’ll say it anyway: I’m listening more to six seasons of data than I am to the most recent 60 minutes. Up to 2024, MVS’ career has been spent with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, elite-level quarterback play that has seen him produce 5.5% under expectations. You’re either dismissing him as a fantasy starter due to a 92-game sample of struggles or buying into Derek Carr as the key to unlock consistency.

The matchup with Cleveland doesn’t bother me. In fact, I’m OK with labeling it as a reasonable spot (third-highest opponent average depth of throw through 10 weeks), and that is why I have Valdes-Scantling atop my Saints WR rankings, but that doesn’t land him in my top 40.

If you’re hoping for a single big play, I’ll take Mike Williams over MVS without a second thought.

Mason Tipton, WR | NO (vs. CLE)

The thought process when targeting a receiver room that is in flux is sound, but I’d recommend doing it for either a player with more pedigree (Tipton: undrafted after four years at Yale) or in an offense with more upside (15 PPG over its past four games).

Saints WR snap shares, Week 10:

• Tipton: 55.8%
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 53.8%
• Kevin Austin Jr.: 48.1%

Without much separation, there’s not enough projectable volume to assign to any receiver in this offense. Tipton has run 54 routes over the past two weeks, which is 54 more than me — and yet, we are tied in receptions.

Way down the rankings, I’d rather hope for the best on a Devaughn Vele (DEN) or Ja’Lynn Polk type this week.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (at NYJ)

With just two catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. has successfully worked his way out of my weekly top 30 with relative ease when at full strength, something that he is clearly not at after sitting Week 10 (back/finger).

I was hopeful that the return to Joe Flacco on a full-time basis would help, and it still might. But we have to see him prove it first as Josh Downs has established himself as the top receiver in Indy. Pittman has been targeted on under 20% of his routes in five straight games (2023: targeted on 27.7% of routes), a role that, without much in the way of per-target upside, isn’t going to get it done.

I’m not turning off the lights on MPJ altogether, but he has to sit down and think about what he has done to fantasy rosters through two months. We managers have trust issues, and it’s going to be difficult to recover from what we have (more accurately, haven’t) gotten through 10 weeks.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (vs. BAL)

Mike Williams’ addition to this team made all the sense in the world. Of course, that’s easy to say after he posts a game where his PPR fantasy point total (10.2) nearly matches his snap rate (12%), but the logic tracks for a deep threat in a Russell Wilson-led offense void of a WR2.

Williams needs to be rostered, and if you’re stuck this week in a position where you are swinging for the fences, why not go in this direction? The Ravens are the fourth-worst defense against deep passes by EPA, and the fantasy numbers reflect as much. Here are the players to score 10+ points against Baltimore in a game this season solely on passes thrown at least 15 yards down the field:

• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 10): 34 deep points
• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 5): 13.9
• KaVontae Turpin (Week 3): 11.9
• Davante Adams (Week 2): 11.5
• Courtland Sutton (Week 9): 11.5
• Jalen Tolbert (Week 3): 11.4
• Cedric Tillman (Week 8): 10.8
• Elijah Moore (Week 8): 10.7
• Xavier Worthy (Week 1): 10.5

I’m not ranking Williams as a top-30 receiver until we see his role crystalize, but he’s on the shortlist of my favorites to go on a run like what we saw from Alec Pierce in September.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (vs. MIN)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine entered Week 10 having scored in four straight games in one of the more improbable streaks of the first half of this season and earning him a spot in this article.

His stay, however, may be short-lived. He was on the field for every Tennessee offensive snap last week against the Chargers, but without an end-zone target, he was predictably underwhelming (three catches for 31 yards). Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging under a yard per route and has earned a target on just 13.7% of his career routes.

The back end of your roster should remain fluid so that you can ride waves like what Westbrook-Ikhine did for a month. Of course, the other side of that coin is being content to move on from players like that once the production dries up. That is where we currently stand in this instance.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (at DAL)

It’s not crazy to call Nico Collins a top-10 receiver in the NFL, right? He has 154 targets since the beginning of last season as he continues to develop, a level of volume that could easily be achieved within a single healthy season if you consider him among the game’s best (nine receivers cleared that number in 2023 alone). On those 154 targets …

• 112 catches
• 1,864 yards
• 11 touchdowns

Those are similar raw numbers and superior rate numbers to what CeeDee Lamb did last season. You’ll want to monitor the status of Collins’ hamstring (I’ll update this piece daily, so just bookmark this and check back as part of your nightly routine), but barring setbacks, he’ll be locked into the many lineups in which I have access to this star.

Noah Brown, WR | WAS (at PHI)

Noah Brown was on the field for a season-high 89.8% of Washington’s offensive snaps last week. Every fiber in my being wants to rank him as a breakout option for the stretch run.

The size profile alone is encouraging, but the fact that he’s earned 19 targets over the past three weeks is what has me stashing him where I can. Betting on volume in a strong offense is generally good practice, and if he didn’t drop a touchdown pass last weekend, you might not have the ability to add him free of charge.

I’m not starting him right now, but I’m watching with a keen eye. Not only does he have little resistance to earning the WR2 role in this offense, but he gives us a sneak peek this week. The Commanders and Eagles also square off in Week 16 — the semifinals in most leagues. This Washington offense is going to be asked to do the heavy lifting for this team down the stretch, and that’ll likely require a second pass catcher emerging.

Brown is the perfect low-risk, high-reward investment to make.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (at DET)

The Parker Washington experiment made sense immediately following the Christian Kirk injury, as it opened up a slot role in an offense that has a pair of receivers who prefer to run vertical routes in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. The easy projection was to shift Kirk’s usage onto Washington, and while that still didn’t land him as a top-35 option, it was enough of a role to roster in a Trevor Lawrence-led offense that plays from behind on a consistent basis.

Lawrence hasn’t been good this season. Jacksonville couldn’t hold onto the ball under Mac Jones last week against the Vikings, and even if they could have extended a few drives, what motivation would they have had to trust a passing game behind a quarterback who had a higher completion count than QBR?

You’re free to cut ties with Washington and chase the next role change that presents itself in this year of receiver injuries.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (at NE)

Per our NFL Week 11 Trends and Insights piece (up every Tuesday morning, check it out!), Puka Nacua has seen at least seven targets in 18 of his 21 career games, matching the most by any player in the 2000s for such games through 21 career contests (tied with Anquan Boldin and Allen Robinson).

That’s a cute stat to tell you what you know — this man is on the short list of best target earners in our game and plays with the WR elevator that is Matthew Stafford. Nacua doubled up Cooper Kupp in the target department in Monday night’s loss to the Dolphins and should be viewed as a WR1 in this offense in terms of usage.

Of course, Kupp still gets plenty of looks and soaks up red-zone usage in bulk. But with a struggling defense, there’s no reason that both can’t be viewed as locked-in assets on a weekly basis.

For the season, the Patriots own the fifth-lowest interception rate and rank 25th in pressure rate. Stafford will have time and the green light to be aggressive. I prefer Nacua to Kupp in this spot, but both are to be viewed as top-15 options and very live in a DFS setting at cost.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (vs. CIN)

A few times per season, we see a player perform so far above expectation that it is difficult to digest, usually coming by way of a crazy touchdown rate. In recent years, Christian Watson and Jordan Addison come to mind as young receivers who rode unsustainable scoring efficiency to strong seasons.

Those two were able to remain productive for their breakout season but have been bitten by the regression bug to a degree since. That’s the thing about regression — we can all feel it looming, but it’s an inexact science when it comes to projecting the impact in a single-game sample size.

Enter Quentin Johnston, a player who has scored on 17.2% of his targets this season. For reference, Calvin Johnson scored on 10.1% of his targets during the best scoring season of his Hall of Fame career. He’s 12.8 PPR fantasy points away from matching his rookie season total despite having seen 38 fewer targets.

Nothing about this feels real to me (two touchdowns have come in games with a single-digit on-field target share, he doesn’t have an end-zone target in five of seven games, etc.) and yet, because of the matchup, he’s deserving of Flex consideration.

Bengals defensive rankings, 2024:

• 23rd in yards per game
• 28th in points per drive
• 29th in touchdown rate
• 31st in red-zone efficiency

For me, betting on Johnston is more of a bet on his quarterback than anything else. During this three-game winning streak, Justin Herbert owns the fourth-highest passer rating in the NFL (119.2 trailing only Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Kirk Cousins). I have him ranked as a WR3, just ahead of options whom I view as equally volatile as Johnston but with less support under center (Calvin Ridley, Brian Thomas Jr., and Rome Odunze).

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (at PIT)

Rashod Bateman scored his fourth touchdown of the season on Thursday night, but he was again held under 60 receiving yards (eight times in 10 games) and none of the underlying numbers suggest that this is a fantasy asset moving forward.

Bateman’s usage trends by season:

• 2021: 16.6% target rate, 14.4% routes in slot
• 2022: 23.3% target rate, 10.0% routes in slot
• 2023: 16.5% target rate, 9.7% routes in slot
• 2024: 16.3% target rate, 7.2% routes in slot

He’s been great when given the opportunity this season (32.7% over expectation), but we have a track record of that not being who he is (first three seasons: 7.8% under expectation), and his involvement has more room to decline than improve (Isaiah Likely’s health and Diontae Johnson’s role).

I don’t think I’ll ever have Bateman ranked as a top-35 receiver, and if he’s never going to threaten your starting lineup, why roster him?

Ray-Ray McCloud III, WR | ATL (at DEN)

This Atlanta Falcons offense has proven productive, but asking it to sustain four pass catchers alongside Bijan Robinson is a bit much. Ray-Ray McCloud is on the field as often as anyone (98.6% snap share last week, a fourth straight game of growth), but what motivation does Kirk Cousins have to look his way?

The early-season volume has dried up as this Darnell Mooney season has been legitimized, resulting in McCloud seeing a target on no more than 12% of his routes in four straight games. That level of involvement simply isn’t enough to justify being rostered in anything but the deepest of deep leagues.

If you’re this far down in the rankings, Mack Hollins or Devaughn Vele are options I prefer, but again, we are talking sheer desperation mode.

Ricky Pearsall, WR | SF (vs. SEA)

Ricky Pearsall’s story is as good as it gets, and I loved what I saw in his first-quarter, 46-yard touchdown last week.

First NFL TD for Ricky Pearsall ‼️

📺 #SFvsTB on FOX pic.twitter.com/J8kjN1jYLB

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) November 10, 2024

The Brandon Aiyuk injury opens up a door for a third option to retain some value in theory, but I tend to be of the belief that the Big Three (Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and George Kittle) assume most of the vacated usage.

Even if that thought proves wrong, Jauan Jennings was playing ahead of Pearsall last week, making this at best a two-man race for a role that might be valuable. I have no problem in holding onto the rookie due to the raw talent and the efficiency of this offense, but asking him to repeat what he did last week (4-73-1) simply isn’t reasonable.

I have him ranked in the same range as the secondary Packers receivers this week, but a step behind all of them because they have upward mobility when it comes to role. Pearsall’s best case is the fourth option, and that carries with it a capped ceiling.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (vs. GB)

With at least six targets in three straight games, the breadcrumbs for a Rome Odunze breakout could be on the ground, though I need to see some level of consistency from Caleb Williams before elevating the rookie receiver from nice stash to impactful Flex.

Chicago had three players reach 75 receiving yards in Week 3 — they’ve only had two players reach that mark in a game otherwise. I remain bullish on this offense for the future and believe that Odunze is their best option in both the short and long term, but don’t mistake “their best” with “your best.”

In the scope of talented receivers with uneven quarterback play, I’d rather ride the form of Calvin Ridley/Courtland Sutton or bank on a post-bye bump from Jerry Jeudy.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (at CHI)

I mentioned the scoring situation savvy of Dontayvion Wicks, and that is draining value from a player in Romeo Doubs who showcased plenty of scoring potential last season with eight scores.

Except for Jayden Reed, there aren’t consistent target earners in this Green Bay offense, and that amplifies the impact of those targets in close. Last season, Doubs was targeted on 22% of his red-zone routes, a rate that has fallen to 14.6% through 10 weeks this season.

We know he has the propensity to disappear altogether (targeted on under 16% of his routes in three of his past five games), something that terrifies me whenever an above-average defense is on the other sideline.

Like all of the other ancillary Packers playmakers, Doubs is a valuable name to have on your roster, but not in your starting lineup at the moment.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (at DAL)

We have zero sample size of what Tank Dell’s role looks like in a world that has the breakout version of Nico Collins active and the injured Stefon Diggs inactive, so there’s certainly a level of guesswork that goes into this evaluation.

My concern revolves around a healthy game-wrecker in Micah Parsons. Dell has been targeted on 21% of his career routes when C.J. Stroud gets rid of the ball faster than the league average (otherwise: 24%).

That may not seem like a massive difference, but if we are talking about the spread at face value, which implies Houston is controlling this game, we could be looking at an underwhelming night in terms of passing volume. That makes a trend like that more impactful.

Dell is a good player with enough upside to justify Flexing, but presuming a healthy-ish Collins, I’m projecting more like 4-6 targets than 6-8; that creates a scary floor. I have him ranked alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, another receiver who has seen his volume tick up with the absence of his team’s WR1. Dell is a middling WR3/Flex option for me with a wide range of outcomes.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (at LAC)

A quad injury cost Tee Higgins his third straight game in Week 10, not a surprising development given the quick turnaround and his lack of practice participation. I’m cautiously optimistic that, courtesy of this mini-bye, fantasy managers will have him back in the mix. Given the form of this offense (75 points over the past two weeks and five games this season with 33+ points), there’s no decision to be made.

You play Higgins.

In his last three games (Weeks 5-7), Ja’Marr Chase was fantasy’s top receiver and Higgins was WR5, ranking ahead of Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown over that stretch. The Chargers’ defense has proven to be among the best in the league, but in their only game against a team with two fantasy regular pass catchers, that duo (Davante Adams and Brock Bowers) accounted for 44% of their team’s receptions.

This is an ultra-condensed, ultra-pass-centric offense and Higgins is featured. As long as a clean bill of health is in our pockets by the time this week kicks off, you can lock him in with confidence.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (at PHI)

Another week, another dime. Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels hooked up on a 28-yard gain last week against the Steelers, a perfectly defended route that included the sideline serving as a second defender — it didn’t matter. This connection isn’t just good for a tandem in their first season together, it’s good by any standard of statistical measurement.

• 2023: 26th percentile in the percentage of fantasy points gained relative to expectation
• 2024: 93rd percentile in the percentage of fantasy points gained relative to expectation

McLaurin has more touchdown catches than all of his teammates combined this season and more receiving yards than the next two most popular Washington receivers combined. There’s no question as to who the top dog in this receiver room is, and alpha WRs have had success against the Eagles when getting anything close to average QB play.

• Jayden Reed (Week 1): 33.1 PPR points
• Drake London (Week 2): 17.4 PPR points
• Chris Olave (Week 3): 20.6 PPR points
• Mike Evans (Week 4): 23.4 PPR points
• Ja’Marr Chase (Week 8): 20.4 PPR points

You’re starting McLaurin weekly without question and likely in a good spot in your standings due to you spending a sixth-round pick on this difference-maker.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (at SF)

We’ve now cleared a full 365-day stretch since the last time Tyler Lockett reached 90 receiving yards in a game. With no more than 10 expected PPR points in four of his past five games, there isn’t a reasonable way to feel good about playing the veteran receiver at this moment in time.

And why would we expect that to change moving forward?

Lockett’s slot rate (27.3% of his routes) is at a career low, a trend that has eliminated the once sturdy floor. That’s a crippling blow for a 32-year-old receiver that has lost a step when it comes to stretching the field.

You can chase the fact that Lockett scored in the first meeting with the 49ers if you want — can you do it in a head-to-head DFS matchup with me? I don’t see myself ranking Lockett as a redraft starter for the remainder of the season barring injuries ahead of him, and that means he is on the roster chopping block if push comes to shove.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (vs. LV)

Tyreek Hill was a game-time decision last week (wrist), and while he was active, he wasn’t as “active” by his lofty standards. The one-yard touchdown saved his stat line from a complete disaster, but he posted just a 14.8% on-field target share, a career low for a game started by Tua Tagovailoa.

It sounds as if this injury will have to be managed throughout, but given that the Dolphins have essentially no room for error the rest of the way, I fully expect their star receiver to play through it.

I’ve dropped him a touch in my rankings as a result of the ailment, but that just means he now ranks closer to WR12 on the week than WR5 — there’s nothing actionable to do on your end. No defense in the NFL allows touchdowns at a higher rate on short passes than the Raiders, so if the plan is to get Hill the ball in space and allow him to dictate how many hits he takes, that could still pay off in a significant way on Sunday.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at BUF)

I understand that we seemingly see one splash play opportunity for Xavier Worthy weekly, but can we be done now?

Patrick Mahomes’ average depth of throw continues to move closer to the line of scrimmage, and it’s become clear that making the most of limited opportunities isn’t Worthy’s path to viability (11 yards on six targets over the past two weeks). He was targeted on two of Kansas City’s first four passes last week against the Broncos, a sign that they want to get him involved.

But we already knew that. We knew that when they drafted him 28th overall. The fact that he could only earn two targets the rest of the way is the most recent set of proof that we have been handed that he’s simply not ready to earn consistent looks at this level.

I’m going to keep ranking him outside of my top 50 at the position and feel good about it. Am I going to be wrong eventually? Yep. Does anyone know when that will be? Nope, and that is why I’m not comfortable playing him.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (at PIT)

The idea of banking on Zay Flowers is sound — he’s the clear WR1 in one of the best offenses in the league whose defense struggles to get consecutive stops. The process makes all the sense in the world, and that is why I am going to continue to rank him as a viable starter, but it’s been a wild ride.

The production is all over the place. That’s because his role is all over the place. This season, he’s posted an aDOT of under 5.5 yards in five games this season, but he’s also cleared 10.5 yards in four instances. We know that Flowers is a great YAC threat (up 38% from last season), but with the sporadic usage due to the dynamic that Derrick Henry brings to this offense, his fantasy value is anything but stable.

I don’t think there’s much you can do here. I’ve dropped him down in my rankings, but that doesn’t remove him from the third tier and a starter across the board. If I’m going down in my league, this is the type of player I’ll do it for, one where we see glimpses of the potential and are confident in his offensive environment.

Tight End Start-Sit Advice in Week 11

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (at MIA)

You read my concerns about Jakobi Meyers — you can go ahead and transfer them all to Brock Bowers (held without a red-zone target in six of nine games this season). But by playing the tight end position, we have no problem taking on more risk, and that makes the raw volume of Bowers more than enough to slot him in as a top-five option at the position week in and week out.

The rookie has at least eight targets in a position-best six games this season — and that’s plenty. You got a bargain on Bowers during your draft and can feel good about riding him for the remainder of the season, understanding that the cost is going to be significantly different entering next season.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (vs. GB)

Cole Kmet has a pair of top-two finishes at the position this season, but that sounds much more favorable than it is. Yes, it’s encouraging to know that games like that are in this profile, but we are talking about an awfully thin outlook with an inconsistent rookie under center and three receivers ahead of him in the target hierarchy.

Looking to invest in Caleb Williams’ pedigree is reasonable for a Rome Odunze-type that has a path to consistently be the first read — but Kmet isn’t that. Over the past three weeks, his 92 routes have netted just 27 yards. The floor is as low as any tight end on the board and the ceiling is nothing more than average based on current form.

If you’re really trying hard to talk yourself into Kmet, he’s caught 14 of 18 targets in his past three games against the Packers. I present the facts for you to do what you please — I think that’s grasping for straws and will be looking elsewhere in the leagues in which I am streaming the position.

Dallas Goedert, TE | PHI (vs. WAS)

Dallas Goedert returned to action last week after missing nearly a month, and while his on-field target share was nothing special (14.3%), it was nice to see him get into the end zone for the first time this season.

The problem in this profile is no secret: volume. Jalen Hurts hasn’t thrown more than 25 passes in a game since September. With Philadelphia’s star receivers at full strength, the target ceiling just isn’t high enough to justify starting weekly.

If you need to stream the position, getting exposure to an offense with an implied total of 26 points isn’t a bad idea, but assigning him a different floor than the likes of Zach Ertz isn’t wise. Goedert’s name value is greater than his mean outcome.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. KC)

Dalton Kincaid suffered a knee injury in the first half last week and tried to return to action with a brace. After a few snaps, he elected to call it a day, leaving fantasy managers out in the cold after an optimistic start to Week 10.

In the first quarter of the win over the Colts, Kincaid matched a career-high for targets in the first 15 minutes with four. His fantasy day would have been made if Josh Allen hadn’t missed him on what would have been a 28-yard score in the first stanza.

I’m approaching this situation with cautious optimism. Kincaid earned a season-high 10 targets in Week 9’s win over the Dolphins, and it seems that this offense is looking to get their TE more involved with the scripted plays working in his favor early last week.

Of course, there is no shortage of moving pieces while Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman both deal with wrist injuries, but this is an offense I generally want to invest in when I get the chance.

Keep an eye on Kincaid’s practice status moving forward — I still think there’s upside to chase when healthy.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (at DAL)

Dalton Schultz had 66 receiving yards in Sunday night’s thriller against the Lions, his most since Week 10 of last season. All three of his catches gained at least 17 yards, a skill set that we’ve seen him flash in the past, but it’s important to contextualize what we just saw.

Last week, Schultz accounted for 28.4% of Houston’s receiving yards despite a 12.5% target share. If his situation wasn’t changing at all, I’d be skeptical. With various things changing, I’m comfortable betting against this profile as a streamer target.

Instead of being an underdog (passing script) in a game with a 49.5-point projection and Nico Collins sidelined, Houston is a touchdown favorite with a game total of 42 points while Houston’s WR1 is expected back in the mix. In this range of my rankings, I’d rather roll the dice on Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (at NO)

For the record, calling any player “safe” when operating within the Jameis Winston vortex is a dangerous step to take. That said, David Njoku is trending in that direction.

He missed nearly a month early in the season, and in his four games as a full-time player (over 73% of the snaps in each of those contests), he’s earned at least seven targets. Given the state of this running game, I have a hard time thinking we won’t get reasonable volume through the air in Cleveland for the rest of 2024. The veteran tight end is pretty clearly the best bet to lead this team in looks.

The production might be spotty, but the process of trusting Njoku weekly at this position is sound, and I’m co-signing it for every week moving forward.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (vs. KC)

From PFN Analyst Jason Katz
It’s been a very long time since fantasy managers seriously thought about starting Dawson Knox. The last time he did anything of note was Week 16 of the 2022 season! Yet, he’s back on the menu for Week 11.

Outside of the lone game where he caught a touchdown pass in Week 6, Knox’s best game was 7.0 fantasy points. He has a whopping eight games with under 2.0 fantasy points. It’s completely understandable to be very hesitant to start him.

Dalton Kincaid is out this week. Kincaid missed time during last week’s game, too. After running no more than 14 routes in any game this season, Knox ran 23 routes against the Colts.

With Kincaid out, we should expect Knox to be the full-time tight end. He could see upwards of an 80% snap share and will likely set a season-high in routes run.

The Chiefs may have a great defense overall, but they’ve really struggled against tight ends. They allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. No team allows a higher percentage of their total receiving yards against tight ends than the staggering 35.8% surrendered by the Chiefs. It is the highest in the league by an impossibly wide margin (the next most is 28.5%).

Given the Chiefs’ elite run defense, the Bills should air it out this week. Amari Cooper is likely to return, but Keon Coleman remains out. Knox could be the third option behind Khalil Shakir and Cooper in the passing game. He is a very viable streaming option.

Evan Engram, TE | JAX (at DET)

The Mac Jones-led version of this offense was underwhelming for what little we saw of them (time of possession in Week 10 vs. Vikings: 17:41); yet, Evan Engram still earned his eight targets and paid the PPR fantasy bills.

Engram posted a 34.8% on-field target share last week, the fourth-highest rate of his career. I’m not sold that the role is sustainable, but if the play count trends closer to reasonable, I’m as comfortable penciling in Engram for six to nine targets as any tight end outside of the hyper-elite.

Jones lowers Engram’s ceiling, but I’m not sure the floor is drastically different (per our QB+ metric, Jones’ Week 10 grade was on par with Trevor Lawrence’s GPA through nine weeks), and that’s enough to land him in my second tier and deserving of lineup-lock status.

George Kittle, TE | SF (vs. SEA)

That’s now seven straight games with at least 14 PPR points for George Kittle, tying him for the longest streak by a tight end since the start of 2012 (Travis Kelce owns the two longest streaks over that stretch).

Last week, he got there with a picturesque 11-yard score in the back of the end zone, showcasing nice finesse to complement the physicality that we see from him weekly. Kittle has a catch of at least 29 yards in four straight and figures to remain heavily involved as this offense adjusts to life without Brandon Aiyuk.

I was encouraged to see his valuable usage remain intact despite Christian McCaffrey making his season debut (at least one end-zone target in five of his past six games, multiple such looks in three of his past five), and he remains my top-ranked player at the position for the remainder of the 2024 season.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (vs. LAR)

Hunter Henry is on the field plenty (over 84% snap share in four straight games) in an offense that has some upside under Drake Maye. That’s a good place to be when evaluating the upside, especially if you believe this team will be playing from behind.

Of course, there are two sides to that coin. In the Week 10 win over the Bears, Henry turned four targets into 2.4 PPR points, a floor that could ruin your week. He is a featured option on the rare occasion that this offense gets inside the 20-yard line, and that’s enough for him to live in the streaming tier of my ranks.

However, I’m never going to sell you on Henry as a strong play, and I prefer Pat Freiermuth if you’re looking for a need-a-TD-to-be-worth-anything option at the position.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (at PIT)

The hamstring injury kept Isaiah Likely out of Thursday’s instant classic with the Bengals; hopefully, that pushed you to cut ties. I love the athletic profile and still think the 24-year-old has a promising future in this league. But in terms of chasing a 2024 fantasy title, this isn’t a profile to bet on.

Likely hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards since that standout Week 1 loss in Kansas City and has scored in just one of eight contests over that stretch. You can move on – if Mark Andrews were to get hurt, I’d spend every FAAB dollar left in my wallet. Nonetheless, burning a roster spot and hoping for a tight end injury to a fully healthy player just isn’t how I build out my team.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (vs. HOU)

I was as high as anyone on Jake Ferguson entering this season, and while my primary stance has proven accurate in that they don’t have a WR2, the third-year tight end has yet to step up. It seems unlikely to happen with Dak Prescott on the shelf.

I’m betting against all things volume-related in Dallas these days — nothing Cooper Rush did last week makes me think this team can sustain drives. If that’s going to be the case, you will need some chunk plays from Ferguson to produce top-12 numbers, and with 2.5 air yards on his Week 10 ledger, I’m not comfortable going there.

I don’t have any more confidence in Ferguson than I do in Tucker Kraft or Zach Ertz, and those two come with a path to a single valuable target that Dallas’ tight end doesn’t given the play under center.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (vs. LV)

I’ve got George Kittle at the top of my tight end rankings for the remainder of the season, and his profile looks a lot like Jonnu Smith’s since Week 5 in terms of usage.

George Kittle’s production, Weeks 5-10:

• 84.9% of snaps are routes
• 0.54 EPA per target
• 19.8% on-field target share
• 23% targets per route run

Jonnu Smith’s production, Weeks 5-10:

• 91.2% of snaps are routes
• 0.42 EPA/target
• 21.8% on-field target share
• 23% targets per route run

By no means am I saying that you treat Smith with the same level of respect as Kittle, but he’s a bigger part of this offense than I think most realize. If you’re fading a Jaylen Waddle rebound, Smith is likely to continue to see consistent work.

His ability to produce after the catch is no secret (his 33-yard catch and run on Monday night serving as the latest reminder), and with a career-high slot usage (46.8% of his routes), we are looking at a reasonably stable player with upside in this offense.

Smith checks in just about the Taysom Hill line for me — the line in the ranks where I believe the “safe” roles end and you throw caution to the wind in chasing upside.

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (vs. CLE)

If the injuries in New Orleans have you flocking to this team for volume, I’d like you to reconsider. The Saints rank 27th in pass rate, and their traditional tight end hasn’t reached 50 receiving yards since New Year’s Eve.

The lack of volume is one thing, the lack of quality volume is another. Johnson hasn’t seen a red-zone or end-zone target since the first week of the season when this squad looked like the second coming of the Greatest Show on Turf.

I’m not starting anyone on this roster not named Alvin Kamara if I don’t have to, and even if I’m desperate, Johnson isn’t the tight end on this roster I’m buying stock in.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (at DEN)

The Falcons have made an interesting shift in Kyle Pitts’ usage, and I think fantasy managers should be happy about it. He’s played under 54% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps in three straight games, but in three of his past four, he’s been targeted on at least 20% of his routes.

They are leaning into Pitts being a receiver, and that’s what we want. That’s how you end up with a highlight reel 23-yard catch on the sideline where Kirk Cousins is putting him in position to do what Pitts was put on this planet to do and high point the football.

If Drake London is going to find the sledding tough against Pat Surtain II, we could be looking at a nice volume game for Pitts. That lands him inside of my top 10 at the position. With this offense functioning at a high level, I’m happy to embrace the range of outcomes because it means I get access to a top-five ceiling.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (at PIT)

Another week, another touchdown. Mark Andrews has scored five times over the past five weeks, flipping the script from the first month that had plenty of people asking if they could cut the former Tier 1 tight end.

The production is great to see, and he’s a top-12 guy moving forward. But you need to be aware that there is still significant risk in this profile. Andrews played a season-high 87.9% of the offensive snaps, a role that is nearly 30 percentage points ahead of his season mark. If that usage came with the roster at full strength, I’d be more encouraged. However, Isaiah Likely (hamstring) was inactive, so I’m not sure we can project it to sustain.

Andrews’ target rate has been hovering around 20% since the beginning of October, and that’s enough to be viable in an offense clicking on all cylinders. I’d just caution against assuming that we are out of the woods when it comes to the air balls.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (at LAC)

Mike Gesicki is a receiver labeled as a tight end in our world, and that’s great when an injury opens up usage.

• Last three games (no Tee Higgins): 23 targets
• Previous four games (Higgins was active): Four targets

This is a very simple situation that you need not overcomplicate — if Higgins is active, Gesicki is a low-end streamer at best. But if not, he’s a top-10 guy without much thought.

Do I think he should be used more often? I do. He’s the third-most reliable pass catcher in this offense, and that role should thrive given the attention that Higgins/Ja’Marr Chase demand. Until the Bengals show any interest in getting that role consistently involved, fantasy managers don’t need to look this way should Higgins’ health not be a concern at lineup lock.

Noah Fant, TE | SEA (at SF)

Noah Fant sat out Week 9 with a groin injury before the Week 10 bye. With him presumably operating at less than full strength in a best case situation, Fant can safely be left on waiver wires, especially with DK Metcalf expected back.

Touchdown equity drives scoring on the fringes of the TE position — Fant hasn’t found the endzone since Christmas Eve, 2022.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (vs. BAL)

Russell Wilson has brought a level of professionalism to this offense, and it’s paying dividends for plenty. Pat Freiermuth scored in the second quarter last week on a perfectly timed pick play and that’s great, but the lack of a floor is enough to keep him outside of my top 12 this week, even in a seemingly ideal matchup.

Freiermuth has not earned a single end-zone target this season and has seen three or fewer looks in five straight. Pittsburgh’s chain-moving threat has the potential to fall forward into a touchdown any week, even more so with Wilson under center, but he’s on the list a mile long of TD-dependent TEs.

We are talking about more of a DFS play than a season-long option in my eyes.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (vs. JAX)

Sam LaPorta has quieted some of the haters by scoring in three of his past five games and posting 91 air yards in Sunday night’s win (his first game north of 42), but I still have my concerns.

Jared Goff hasn’t funneled a red-zone target the way of his starting tight end in four of the past five games. In an offense based on efficiency like this one, I worry about the target-earning capacity of LaPorta’s role. Last season, he was consistently featured and saw a target on 23.8% of his routes. That rate is down to 15.7% this season. While I still have him ranked as a fringe fantasy starter (Jacksonville allows the third-most yards per pass this season), his odds of hitting his floor are as low as anyone in that range of my rankings.

Taysom Hill, TE | NO (vs. CLE)

Taysom Hill racked up 46 yards on five touches in the first quarter last week, highlighted by a 34-yard grab. And it could have been so much more:

Taysom Hill had an 88-yard TD catch nullified on a hold yesterday lmao pic.twitter.com/W14lxhsJZ7

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 11, 2024

The slot route rate is declining for Hill, but does that matter? You’re not considering Hill for his pass-catching prowess, you’re looking to exploit a unique role that has the potential to be a cheat code at a position that allows you to swallow more risk than others.

This pass-catching nucleus’s numerous injuries should open Hill up for more games like what we saw on Sunday. If you’re going to get 6-8 touches, you’re looking at a viable option.

Do I worry about the lack of scoring equity that comes with playing for this team? Of course, I do. I already bet the team total at under 22.5 points this week if you need proof of that. While I think that subtracts from Hill’s chances of producing a ceiling game, I’ll take my chances.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (at TEN)

The Vikings have yet to unleash T.J. Hockenson, and they really haven’t needed to. Is that frustrating? It is. For now.

Minnesota will be in a playoff battle until the very end of this season, and that has me optimistic that this star could peak at the perfect time. In Week 9, Hockenson played 45.1% of the snaps and was hardly extended in Week 10 (46.3%). I’m happy to read into the quality of snaps as opposed to quantity — he was targeted on 30% of his routes last weekend against the Jaguars.

I’m not expecting Hock to get back to his 2023 snap rate in November (79.6%), and I don’t care. If he is getting usage like he did in Week 10 (nine targets, 72 yards), the snap count will eventually follow. We could be looking at a Tier 1 option come the fantasy postseason.

Lock him into your lineups now and understand that you’re playing the long game.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (at BUF)

Travis Kelce has seen at least a dozen targets in three straight games, the first player 35 or older to do that since Terrell Owens in 2010 (five straight). The usage was no mistake — Kelce caught a two-yard score at the end of the first half and was responsible for six of Patrick Mahomes’ first 16 completions.

This Chiefs team defies logic across the board, and Kelce is a part of that. We were ready to write him off for the regular season, but this offense is built around Mahomes’ ability to move the chains. That style, given the roster as it sits, means that Kelce is a threat to lead the position in opportunities every single week.

We are looking at a Tier 1 tight end. Maybe he’s not a tier unto himself like years past, but Father Time is taking his time in knocking on Kelce’s door. I see no reason to bet against that moving forward for the remainder of this season.

Tucker Kraft, TE | GB (at CHI)

Look at Tucker Kraft’s player page and my guess is that you’re going to be a little underwhelmed. The five touchdowns are nice, but with under 40 receiving yards in six of nine games, there is a lower floor than I see most people taking into consideration.

Kraft has yet to reach 40 air yards in a game and has been targeted on under 16% of his routes in each of his past four. The scoring profile keeps him on the TE1 radar (end-zone target or a score in five of his past six games), but I’m not labeling him as the surefire starter that most seem to be doing.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (vs. IND)

Early in the season, the idea of Tyler Conklin was easy to track — he’s a big target in an Aaron Rodgers-led offense that was coming off back-to-back-to-back seasons with at least 58 catches.

At the very least, I assumed there would be some scoring equity to chase here. But with this Jets offense failing to live up to expectations, there’s simply no reason to bet further on them. Conklin has posted a sub-8% target rate in consecutive games, and without red-zone drive volume at the level we expected, you’re looking elsewhere.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (at PHI)

Zach Ertz played a season-high 79.7% of Washington’s offensive snaps on his birthday last week and hauled in four passes for the fourth time in his past five games. The per-catch upside is very much capped, but volume talks, especially when tethered to a top-10 offense.

The veteran tight end has been targeted on over one-quarter of his routes in three of his past four, a usage pattern that has him flirting with my top 15 this week. By no means is he a must-start, but if you’re piecing together the position every week, I think you can get away with Ertz this weekend next in a pair of divisional games.