The 2024 NFL campaign has passed its halfway point, allowing us to reflect on the choices teams made during the offseason. That’s especially true regarding the 2024 NFL Draft, when franchises made quarterback selections that will affect their rosters for years to come.
Let’s rank the four rookie QBs who have served as their club’s primary starters this year. While it might be too early to declare a prospect a superstar or a bust based on 10 weeks of NFL action, a half-season’s worth of production is enough for us to judge these first-year signal-callers.
You might be able to guess which rookie quarterback we have ranked No. 1. Let’s head to the nation’s capital, where the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite has guided one of the NFL’s most surprising teams to playoff contention.
1) Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
- PFN’s QB+: B+ (fifth)
- EPA per dropback: 0.23 (second)
- Passing success rate: 50% (12th)
Few expected the Washington Commanders to compete for the playoffs this season. The organization was installing a new owner, front office, coaching staff, and quarterback. That’s a lot of change for any franchise, let alone a team like the Commanders that had been stuck in the mud for multiple decades.
And yet, Washington is 7-2 heading into a Thursday night showdown with the Philadelphia Eagles that will determine control of the NFC East — and Jayden Daniels has been the driving force behind the team’s success.
If voting were held today, Daniels would walk away with OROY, and he might finish second behind Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in the MVP race. Daniels is only trailing Jackson in passing efficiency this season.
Since 2000, only three rookie QBs have posted a higher EPA (expected points added) per dropback through their first 10 career games.
This season, Daniels ranks fourth in QB rating behind Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Joe Burrow. While Daniels has Terry McLaurin as his WR1, the Commanders’ rookie easily has the worst supporting cast among that foursome of quarterbacks.
Despite the lack of talent around him, Daniels never appears frazzled inside or outside the pocket. When pressured this year, he ranks third in EPA per dropback and fifth in yards per attempt.
Daniels is second among quarterbacks with 464 rushing yards, but he’s No. 1 in scramble yards (343). He’s especially calm and collected when Washington needs a conversion, ranking first in rushing EPA per game on third and fourth downs.
2) Drake Maye, New England Patriots
- PFN’s QB+: C- (17th)
- EPA per dropback: -0.09 (24th)
- Passing success rate: 44.5% (22nd)
Drake Maye is still getting his feet wet. While the other rookie quarterbacks on this list have started every game for their respective teams, the New England Patriots rolled with Jacoby Brissett to begin the season before turning to Maye in Week 6.
Maye has started five games, but he only attempted six passes in Week 8 before departing with a concussion. From a statistical perspective, his results have been mixed, and thus, he’s in the middle of the pack in PFN’s QB+ grades.
The No. 3 overall pick’s best performance came against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7, when he completed 70% of his passes for 276 yards and two touchdowns while earning a C+. Maye’s worst game came two weeks later, a two-interception, four-sack clunker against the Tennessee Titans that led to a C- grade.
Even in that loss to the Titans, however, Maye showed what he’s capable of.
Down seven points and facing a third-and-goal with no time left on the clock, Maye scrambled for 11.82 seconds before hitting Rhamodre Stevenson for a game-tying touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, it was the second-longest time to throw for an NFL quarterback since 2016, trailing only Daniels’ game-winning Hail Mary in Week 9.
DRAKE MAYE MAGICCCCCCCCC!!!!!!!!!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/UvIB3dRi8k
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) November 3, 2024
That’s the sort of creativity and play-extension ability the Patriots hoped for when they selected Maye out of North Carolina. He’s consistently demonstrated his prowess at making things happen outside of structure, which is needed given the state of New England’s offensive line.
The Pats have arguably the worst front five in the NFL. Their offensive skill-position players are similarly uninspiring. With all due respect to New England offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, teams weren’t exactly knocking down his door to hire him after he was fired by the Cleveland Browns this offseason.
Maye needs more help. The Patriots, trending toward another top-five pick and boasting more cap space ($130 million) than any other NFL team in 2025, should be able to find it next year. For now, Maye’s off-script highlights should continue to light up the screen.
3) Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
- PFN’s QB+: D (26th)
- EPA per dropback: -0.15 (27th)
- Passing success rate: 42.2% (28th)
The book on Bo Nix coming into the 2024 season was that he’d be a high-floor, low-ceiling quarterback whose strengths would mesh well with Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton’s offense.
Through 10 weeks, the book has largely been proven right, although the floor has been a little lower than the Broncos might’ve hoped.
Nix’s best performance by QB+ came in Week 8, when he completed more than 75% of his passes for 284 yards and three touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers to earn a C+. Seven of his 10 starts have resulted in a C- grade or better.
The No. 12 overall pick hasn’t been able to break through into a B or even A territory, but Nix has mostly kept the genuinely catastrophic games to a minimum. He brought home a D in his first two career starts before bottoming out with a D- after passing for just 60 yards against the New York Jets in Week 5.
Thought Bo Nix played a solid game against a really tough Chiefs defense. Threw the ball accurately, generally avoided negative plays (two huge sacks notwithstanding), and kept the offense on schedule.
Best play of the game should have been the game winner. pic.twitter.com/51b3pzgKbo
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 12, 2024
Nix has improved since that misadventure. Over the past five games, he ranks 15th in passing success rate (46.3%), 19th in yards per attempt (6.9), and 21st in EPA per dropback (0.03).
He’s been at his best when creating out of structure during this stretch. When throwing from outside the pocket since Week 6, Nix ranks 10th in success rate and 13th in efficiency. Inside the pocket, he’s just 14th and 20th, respectively.
The Oregon product’s mobility helps him in Denver’s passing attack and extends to Payton’s run-game plan. Nix has posted a 63.2% success rate on designed runs, the fourth-best rate among QBs with 20+ designed attempts.
One area where Nix can afford to improve? Keeping calm in the pocket. According to PFF, Nix is responsible for a greater portion of his pressures (29.3%) than any quarterback in the NFL.
4) Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
- PFN’s QB+: F (28th)
- EPA per dropback: -0.18 (29th)
- Passing success rate: 41.2% (31st)
Chicago Bears fans surely can’t believe what they’re seeing.
After struggling through years — decades! — of poor quarterback play, the Bears had finally put themselves in a position to land one of the best QB prospects in NFL draft history. After trading away the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Chicago stayed put at the top of the 2024 draft and went with the no-brainer in USC’s Caleb Williams.
Williams was lights-out against the porous Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers defenses in Weeks 5 and 6. But he’s been a disaster since the Bears’ Week 7 bye.
Over the past three weeks, Williams ranks dead last in quarterback efficiency (-0.33 EPA per dropback) and passing success rate (30.9%). He’s completed an explosive pass on just 8.8% of his attempts during that span (the third-worst rate in the NFL). Williams has also been the league’s least accurate QB since Week 8, with a 22.1% off-target rate.
I do want to add clarity on the Caleb Williams "holds onto the ball too long" narrative. It's not that he's running around doing crazy things and passing up easy throws. It more seems like he's trying to show, stubbornly at times, that he's a pure pocket passer who can progress. https://t.co/ebp8Zzhs3y
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 12, 2024
For the season, Williams is one of only six quarterbacks to receive an F grade in PFN’s QB+. Just four QBs have posted a worse raw score than Williams’ 57.5, and the list isn’t pretty: Jacoby Brissett, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, and Deshaun Watson.
Williams is hardly solely responsible for his lack of rookie-year production. Chicago’s scheme rarely gives Williams layup throws, while over-the-hill wideout Keenan Allen has somehow become the Bears’ featured target.
Chicago fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on Tuesday, Nov. 12, promoting passing game coordinator Thomas Brown to a play-calling role. While Brown might be able to make life easier for Williams over the rest of the season, the 22-year-old will likely be working with a new scheme in 2025, assuming head coach Matt Eberflus is fired.