Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 11.
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Bye Week Schedule
- Week 11: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Buccaneers
- Week 12: Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints, Jets
- Week 14: Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Colts, Patriots, Commanders
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (TNF)
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington has seen three straight games decided by five or fewer points (just two of their first seven games were decided by five or fewer points).
QB: Jayden Daniels ranks sixth in the league in terms of pressure rating when pressured (for reference, Caleb Williams ranks 26th and Bo Nix 28th).
Offense: The Commanders’ 45.8% of drives reach the red zone, the highest rate in the league and more than 10 percentage points ahead of the Eagles (35.7%).
Defense: Washington owns the third-highest pressure rate when not blitzing (38.2%) through 10 weeks.
Fantasy: Terry McLaurin has cleared 95 receiving yards or scored multiple touchdowns in eight straight games.
Betting: Four straight short rest spots involving the Commanders have come in over the total (this season: 42-14 win in Arizona with a 48.5-point over/under).
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: The Eagles are riding their third win streak of at least five games since the beginning of last season (they, of course, dropped five of six games to close last regular season).
QB: Jalen Hurts has seen his average depth of throw increase in each of the past three weeks (Week 10 at Dallas: season-high 10.9 yards).
Offense: Philadelphia ranks sixth in yards per completion this season (they ranked 15th a season ago).
Defense: Through 10 weeks this season, only the Bears and Chargers have a better red zone defense than the Eagles.
Fantasy: On Sunday, for the third time in four games, Hurts ran for multiple scores while completing 70% of his passes. He’s normalized something that is a unique occurrence for all other human beings.
Consider this: the rest of the NFL has three such games this season.
Betting: Six straight Eagle home games played on short rest have gone over the total (average over margin: 18.2 PPG).
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Green Bay Packers
Team: Week 11 was when the Packers found their stride last season (3-6 before Week 11, finished 6-2).
QB: Jordan Love has completed just two-of-10 red zone passes over his last two games (prior: 19-28, 67.9%).
Offense: The Packers picked up 58.3% of their third downs in Week 6’s win over the Cardinals. In Week 7, they converted 40% of their chances, in Week 8 27.3%, and in Week 9 just 25%.
Defense: Green Bay has allowed a first down on just 33% of third downs this season, their best rate since 2006 (32.6%).
Fantasy: You’re not alone if you think Jayden Reed is difficult to nail down. Not only am I in your camp, but it would appear that the Packers are as well.
- Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -1.8 aDOT
- Week 7 vs. Houston Texans: 9.0 aDOT
- Week 8 at Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.0 aDOT
- Week 9 vs. Detroit Lions: 15.2 aDOT
Betting: The Packers have covered four straight road divisional games, with all four of those games going over the total.
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears have lost 10 straight vs. the Packers, tied for the longest losing streak by either team in this series (the Bears also lost 10 straight to Green Bay from 1994-98).
QB: Caleb Williams has been pressured on 46.3% of his dropbacks since returning from a bye in Week 8, the second-highest of any player in that span behind C.J. Stroud. When pressured in that span, Williams has more sacks taken (18) than completions (13).
Offense: The Bears have gone 23 straight offensive drives without a TD dating back to Week 8. That’s tied for the second-longest streak this year behind a 30-drive streak from the Miami Dolphins from Weeks 2-4.
Defense: Chicago allows a touchdown on 14.3% of drives (second-best in the league, behind only the Chargers).
Fantasy: Chicago had three players reach 75 receiving yards in Week 3 – they’ve only had two players reach that mark in a game otherwise.
Betting: The Bears are 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in their past 17 divisional games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: The Jaguars have lost three straight games, all to playoff hopefuls (Packers, Eagles, and Vikings). In those games, they’ve been out-scored by a total of 13 points.
QB: Per our QB+ metric, Mac Jones posted a D+ on Sunday, which is the exact average of Trevor Lawrence this season.
Offense: Jacksonville ranks 29th in average time to throw this season, pacing for their third straight bottom-5 finish in that metric.
Defense: The Jaguars had three takeaways last week vs. the Vikings after posting just five all season. Jacksonville hasn’t had consecutive games with multiple takeaways since Weeks 4-6 of last season.
Fantasy: Brian Thomas Jr. has three games with over 21 PPR points and four single-digit performances.
Betting: Unders are 10-2 in the Jaguars’ past 12 games as an underdog of more than seven points.
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions won last week despite a five-interception game from Jared Goff – the NFL record in such spots now sits at 9-117 since the 1970 merger (this was the first such win since Matt Ryan in 2012).
QB: Over the past two months, Goff has a five-interception game and five games with no more than five incompletions.
Offense: Three of the top-5 teams in rush attempts per game are also top-5 units in terms of yards per pass (Ravens, Eagles, and Lions).
Defense: Detroit allows a touchdown on just 15.8% of opponent drives, the fifth lowest rate in the NFL (Jacksonville is fifth worst in this category at 27.8%).
Fantasy: Jahmyr Gibbs’ boom/bust rate (difference in the percentage of carries gaining 10-plus yards to carries failing to gain any yards) is +2.5% – he’s the only qualified RB with more 10-yard gains than stuff efforts this season.
Betting: Overs are 4-1 in the last five games in which the Lions have been favored by more than seven points (they’ve failed to cover three of the past four).
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
Minnesota Vikings
Team: After trailing for a total of 3:26 during their 5-0 start, the Vikings have trailed for over 107 minutes (roughly 45% of the time) in four games since. The culprit has been the second quarter—Minnesota has been outscored 35-0 in the second quarter since Week 7.
QB: Sam Darnold has thrown multiple interceptions in back-to-back games after not doing so in any of his first seven games of the season. He’s never thrown multiple picks in three straight games, and Christian Ponder (three straight in 2012) is the only Vikings QB this century with three straight multi-INT games.
Offense: The Vikings have a +58 point differential in first quarters this season, 26 points ahead of the second-place 49ers.
Defense: Minnesota’s volume blitzing gets the attention, but is it effective? They have the third-lowest pressure rate when bringing an extra defender (32.4%, better than only the Cardinals and Panthers).
Fantasy: Aaron Jones scored on his third carry of the season – he’s run for one touchdown on 139 attempts since.
Betting: After a 5-0 start against the spread, the Vikings are 1-3 ATS since.
Tennessee Titans
Team: The Titans have been out-scored 106-45 in their first three games against the NFC North this season.
QB: On Sunday, Will Levis posted his first game with multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in a game with 20-plus attempts since his NFL debut.
Offense: The thought this preseason was that this offense would open up – they rank dead last in the pace of play.
Defense: The regression monster has hit the Titans – 2023’s best red zone defense ranks 26th through 10 weeks this season.
Fantasy: If you extend Calvin Ridley’s three games post-DeAndre Hopkins trade for a full season — 114 catches for 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Betting: The Titans are 0-4 ATS at home this season (failures to cover against the Jets, Packers, Colts, and Patriots) and are just 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight in front of their fans.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders are -14 in the turnover department, their worst mark through nine games since 2004 (-15).
QB: In his last two starts, Gardner Minshew is 24-30 when not pressured (80%, though none of those passes resulted in a touchdown).
Offense: Only once this season has Las Vegas scored more than two offensive touchdowns in a game (Week 2 vs. Panthers).
Defense: In their past two games, the Raiders have allowed 20 third down conversions (in their first seven games total: 24).
Fantasy: Despite the volume that comes from a favorable role, Jakobi Meyers has reached triple digits in air yards just once this season and has three games this season without a red zone target (two of which saw him not even run a route inside the opponents’ 20-yard line).
Betting: The Raiders have seen under tickets cash in five of their past six games played on extended rest.
Miami Dolphins
Team: Based on lookahead lines, the Dolphins are expected to have a +5 point differential for the remainder of the season.
QB: Tua Tagovailoa has thrown at least 28 passes and completed at least 71% of his attempts in all three of his games back from the concussion. Patrick Mahomes is the only other player to string together three games like that since the beginning of 2023.
Offense: The Dolphins have multiple red zone touchdowns in all three games since Tagovailoa’s return (they have zero such games through Week 7).
Defense: In Weeks 1-3, Miami allowed 58 first half points. In their six games since, they’ve coughed up just 38 first half points.
Fantasy: Miami threw a pass on seven of their first eight plays on Monday night against the Rams with a focus on getting Jaylen Waddle involved (three targets, two catches, 55 yards).
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in seven of Miami’s last eight home games in Week 11 or later.
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams
Team: Week 11 was when the Rams made their move last season (3-6 through 10 weeks before winning seven of eight to close the season).
QB: Matthew Stafford has now thrown an interception in six straight games, matching the longest streak of his career.
Offense: The Rams have scored more than 20 points in regulation just twice this season and it’s possible those instances came against the top two defenses they’ll face this season (Week 3 vs 49ers and Week 8 vs. Vikings).
Defense: The Rams won the first half in six of seven games to end last regular season but have won just two of nine first halves this season.
Fantasy: Puka Nacua has seen at least seven targets in 18 of his 21 career games, matching the most by any player in the 2000’s for such games through 21 career contests (tied with Anquan Boldin and Allen Robinson).
Betting: The Rams are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in their past eight road games played on short rest.
New England Patriots
Team: There were 62 points scored in their Week 6 loss against the Texans. In Week 7, New England saw a total of 48 points scored, followed by 47 in Week 8, 37 in Week 9, and a whopping 22 on Sunday in Chicago.
QB: Drake Maye averages 2.1 more yards per pass attempt against man coverage than zone, the third-highest difference in the league (Sam Darnold and Jalen Hurts).
Offense: New England allows pressure when not blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL (38.1%, league average: 31.8%).
Defense: The Patriots tied their franchise record with nine sacks on Sunday vs. the Chicago Bears. Seven of those came when New England blitzed, the most sacks by any team when blitzing in a game since 2018.
Fantasy: Lamar Jackson (eight straight) and Drake Maye (five, active streak) are the only QBs this season with a 15-plus yard run in four straight starts this season.
Betting: The Patriots covered their last home game (Week 8 against the Jets), and that’s lovely, but don’t forget that they hadn’t covered a home game in the 369 days prior.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have not played a single defensive snap with a lead in four of their past five games.
QB: Typically, quick pass rate and an average depth of throw are inversely correlated; as one goes up, the other goes down. Among QBs with at least 75 pass attempts this season, Jameis Winston ranks top-5 in both categories.
Offense: Cleveland is passing on 61% of their red zone plays, their highest rate since 2015 (63.8%).
Defense: In their three games before the Week 10 bye, the Browns allowed a touchdown on seven of eight red zone trips.
Fantasy: Cedric Tillman has been on the field for over 80% of Cleveland’s offensive snaps over their past three games after failing to reach 40% in each of the first six weeks and guess what the 6’3” 24-year-old has done with the opportunity?
- 3 straight top-12 finishes
- 1 end zone target in every game
- 140.8 air yards per game
Betting: The Browns are 1-7 ATS (12.5%) in their past eight road games played on extended rest.
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have played four games this season decided by a FG or less (only the Colts and Texans have more such games).
QB: Derek Carr’s average length of touchdown passes this season is a league-high 29.6 yards. He’s the only QB with an average of even 27 yards and is easily pacing for the highest mark of his career.
Offense: Since Week 3, only the Chargers and Browns finish a higher percentage of their offensive drives with a punt than the Saints (46.1%).
Defense: Only 28.6% of opponent drives result in a punt against the Saints (28th).
Fantasy: Alvin Kamara has three straight games with at least 50 receiving and 50 rushing yards, joining Christian McCaffrey as the only player with such a streak since 2017.
Betting: The Saints are just 6-8 outright in their past 14 games as a favorite (5-9 ATS over that run)/
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Sunday’s 30-20 loss to the Bills snapped a streak of 11 straight Colt games being decided by a single possession.
QB: Joe Flacco threw two interceptions on 135 pass attempts entering Week 10. Against the Bills on Sunday, two of his first five passes were picked off.
Offense: The Colts allow pressure 51.2% of the time when they face a blitz, the second-highest rate in the league (NFL average: 41.5%).
Defense: Indianapolis is the second-best team in getting pressure when blitzing (51.2%, trailing only the Packers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs dropped a touchdown on Sunday, but he caught at least six passes for the fifth time in seven games.
Betting: The Colts are 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in their past nine road games played in November.
New York Jets
Team: The Jets are 2-0 on Thursdays with a +29 point differential but 1-5 with a -50 point differential on Sundays. They only have Sunday games remaining this season.
QB: In Weeks 1-4, Aaron Rodgers completed 52% of his passes when under duress, a rate that has dropped to 37.5% since.
Offense: New York is the second-best team in terms of the pressure rate allowed for picking up the blitz (32% of blitzes create QB pressure; only the Bucs have been better through 10 weeks).
Defense: The Jets are turning over the opposition on just 6.8% of drives (27th).
Fantasy: Breece Hall owns the worst boom/bust rate of 26 qualified running backs this season (25% of his carries have failed to gain yardage while only 11.8% have gained at least 10 yards).
Betting: Overs are 12-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ last 16 starts in Week 11 or later in the regular season.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Only twice in the 2000s has a team made the Super Bowl after starting the season 0-2 (the 2007 Giants and 2001 Patriots), something that seems more possible with each passing week for these Ravens.
QB: Has Lamar Jackson ended the MVP race before it started? He threw 457 passes last season – if we extend his pace from his past four games across 457 attempts:
- 331 completions
- 4,652 passing yards
- 57 passing touchdowns
Offense: Baltimore averages 2.94 points per drive, just ahead of Jackson’s first MVP season and 23.5% better than a year ago.
Defense: Only twice in the 2000s have the Ravens allowed a third-down conversion rate of 40%—through 10 weeks, their rate this season sits at 46.7%.
Fantasy: When this game starts, we will be 322 days removed from the last game in which Derrick Henry played and failed to reach the end zone.
Betting: The Ravens have covered their past eight road games played on extended rest (1-0 this season with a 10-point win over the Buccaneers as a four-point favorite).
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: The Steelers are 7-1 against the Ravens from 2020. However, every game in that stretch has been decided by one score.
QB: Russell Wilson is averaging 10.9 yards per pass when blitzed this season (339 yards and three scores on 31 such attempts).
Offense: Pittsburgh’s first-down offense has the lowest yards per play (4.1, league average: 5.5).
Defense: The Steelers allow just 29.9% of opponent drives to result in points, which is the third-best rate in the NFL (only the Chargers and Vikings have been better).
Fantasy: That’s seven straight games with multiple receptions or a touchdown rush for Najee Harris.
Betting: The Steelers have covered four straight home divisional games (average cover margin: +13.9 PPG).
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons are 6-4: they’ve lost every game in which they failed to score 22 points and won every game in which they reached that mark.
QB: Kirk Cousins has thrown zero touchdown passes and three interceptions on 36 fourth-quarter pass attempts over the past month.
Offense: Atlanta’s play-action rate has dropped from 16.7% last season to a league-low 8.7% this season.
Defense: Only the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Panthers allow points on more drives than the Falcons (46%).
Fantasy: We are finally getting the usage we wanted from Bijan Robinson – he has at least 19 carries and three receptions in three of his past four games (that’s three more such games than he had all of last season).
Betting: The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games with a total under 45 points.
Denver Broncos
Team: The Broncos are 5-5 this season, with four losses coming by a single score.
QB: In Weeks 1-4, Bo Nix completed just 42.9% of his passes when outside the pocket. That number has spiked to 65.1% since.
Offense: Denver ranks third in average time to throw this season (12.6% more than league average).
Defense: No defense records a sack at a higher rate when not blitzing than the Broncos (9.9% of dropbacks).
Fantasy: This backfield is in flux, but there is value in chasing it – the Broncos lead the league in average starting field position (their own 32.7-yard line).
Betting: Unders are 9-3 in the last 12 games in which the Broncos have hosted a game with a spread (in either direction) of less than a field goal.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Team: The Seahawks have six more committed than forced turnovers, their worst rate through nine games in the 2000s (it’s only their fifth time over that stretch with a negative turnover differential).
QB: In Weeks 1-5, Geno Smith’s quick pass rate was 83.8% when not pressured, but it has dropped to 61.1% since.
Offense: Seattle has lost consecutive games, and in those contests, they’ve converted just five of 22 third downs (22.7%).
Defense: The Seahawks have allowed opponents to pick up just 37.4% of their third downs this season, their best since 2018 (35%) and much improved from last season (46.3%).
THE JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA BREAKOUT GAME IS HERE.pic.twitter.com/Wsj79W4MQe
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) November 4, 2024
Fantasy: We entered the season with optimism around Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he’s beginning to realize that potential at a high level. Can it stick?
2024: With DK Metcalf on the field
- 11.9% under expectation
- 6.6 aDOT
- 4 TDs on 131 targets
2024: Without DK Metcalf on the field
- 27.6% over expectation
- 13.6 aDOT
- 3 TDs on 37 targets
Betting: Unders are 8-1-2 in Seattle’s past 11 road games played on short rest.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: The 49ers won six straight games following their bye last season, a run that started with a win in Florida. San Francisco came out of their Week 9 bye and won in Tampa Bay last weekend.
QB: Brock Purdy’s average depth of throw is up 11% from last season and ranks second in the NFL, trailing only Jordan Love.
Offense: On a per-play basis this season, the 49ers are 1.44 yards better than their opponent. That rate leads the league – in fact, the Ravens (+1.38) are the only other team above one yard.
Defense: San Francisco owns the seventh-lowest sack rate this season when blitzing (5.3%).
Fantasy: In his season debut, Christian McCaffrey notched just the sixth game this season with 13 carries and 65 receiving yards – so much for easing him back into action!
Betting: After covering five straight home divisional games, the 49ers have failed to cover each of their past three, a run that includes a 12-point win as a 14.5-point favorite against these Seahawks in Week 14 last season.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs have won nine straight games when trailing in the second half.
QB: Among 32 qualifiers, Patrick Mahomes ranks 19th in yards per pass, 23rd in interception rate, and 32nd in average depth of throw.
Offense: Kansas City leads the league in third down conversion rate (52%).
Defense: The win on Sunday was nice to get, but the Chiefs created pressure on just 21.2% of dropbacks, their lowest rate of the season despite a 42.4% blitz rate (their second-highest mark of 2024).
Fantasy: Travis Kelce has seen at least a dozen targets in three straight games, the first player aged 35 or older to do that since Terrell Owens in 2010 (five straight).
Betting: The Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven road games.
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have won five straight games and just scored 50 points in their most recent game. Heading into their playoff loss to the Chiefs last season, they had won six straight games and scored 48 points in their most recent game.
QB: The Bills opened the season 3-0, and Josh Allen completed 75% of his passes. Since, he’s completed just 59.9% of his passes (four interceptions over his past three games).
Offense: That’s now five straight weeks of improvement when it comes to limiting pressure when not blitzed for this offensive line.
Defense: Buffalo has allowed the opposition to convert no more than 37.5% of their third downs in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: James Cook has twice as many rushing touchdowns this season (128 carries) as he did in his first two seasons (326 carries).
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in seven straight Buffalo home games (4-0 this season with three of those games going over the number by at least 7.5 points).
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (SNF)
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: Most Cincinnati games the rest of the way come against a quarterback who was his team’s Week 1 starter.
QB: Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson both had unique games on Thursday night. For Burrow, he’s the first AFC QB to throw four touchdown passes in consecutive games since … well, Joe Burrow (Weeks 16-17, 2021).
Offense: Cincinnati is averaging 2.51 points per drive, 6.8% higher than any other season under Joe Burrow.
Defense: From 2008-23, the Bengals lost twice when scoring 33 points in a game – they’ve done it three times in eight weeks this season.
Fantasy: Would you believe me if I told you that Week 10 was Chase’s third-best performance of the season when comparing his actual production to expectations (+83.3%)?
- Week 3 vs. Washington Commanders: +133.4%
- Week 5 vs. Baltimore Ravens: +115.4%
Betting: The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games on extended rest.
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: Ramp up the aggression — the Chargers record a sack on 15.1% of their blitzes, the second-highest rate in the league (NFL average: 9.2%).
QB: Justin Herbert’s three highest passer rating performances of the season have come in Los Angeles’ past three games, and his 77.8% completion percentage on Sunday against the Titans was his best of the season.
Offense: Only 3% of Charger drives have ended with a turnover this season, a rate that will be the lowest of the millennium if they can sustain it (the Commanders are also in that conversation at 3.1%).
Defense: Over the past three weeks, the Chargers have a 14% sack rate (Weeks 2-7: 5.8%).
Fantasy: Quentin Johnston has scored on 17.2% of his targets this season. For reference, Calvin Johnson scored on 10.1% of his targets during the best scoring season of his Hall of Fame career.
Betting: The Chargers are the only team yet to play multiple games decided by six or fewer points.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (MNF)
Houston Texans
Team: Houston started 2-0. Since then, they are 0-3 against the NFC North and 4-1 against the rest of the NFL (the only other loss was to a former NFC North QB in Aaron Rodgers).
QB: C.J. Stroud has the fifth lowest quick pass rate in the NFL, a clear design of this offense (seventh lowest rate a season ago)
Offense: The Texans rank 31st in offensive success rate this season (32nd: Browns).
Defense: Houston owns the fifth worst four quarter point differential this season -27, they were 10th best a season ago at +25).
Fantasy: Joe Mixon posted his worst boom/bust rate of the season on Sunday night (six carries that failed to gain yardage and none that gained 10-plus), with easily his lowest mark in terms of yards per carry after contact. Signs of fatigue for a 28-year old running back who has 24-plus rush attempts in four straight games?
Betting: The Texans are 1-10 ATS (9.1%) on longer than normal rest in their past 11 games.
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Only two teams have lost multiple games by 25-plus points this season – both the Cowboys and Panthers have three such losses.
QB: Rico Dowdle wasn’t much more than ordinary on Sunday against the Eagles (12 carries for 53 yards), and yet, he averaged more yards per carry than Cooper Rush averaged yards per completion (13 completions for 45 yards).
Offense: Through 10 weeks, 18% of Dallas drives end inf a turnover, a rate only topped by the Raiders.
Defense: Dallas has allowed a touchdown on 29.4% of opponent drives this season, a rate that is better than only Carolina.
Fantasy: In Cooper Rush’s first start of the season, CeeDee Lamb posted the fourth worst game of his career in terms of production relative to expectation, with a minimum of six targets (-55.9%).
Betting: The Cowboys are 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in their past 14 games when playing on extended rest.