It’s crazy to think we are heading into Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season, but here we are. We have seen a number of twists and turns, with Week 10 providing plenty of them, but we generally have a good idea of how different teams shape up.
Using our PR+ metric, we have previewed all 14 games this week to give out Week 11 NFL picks and predictions. Can we expect to potentially see any major upsets, and what does it all mean in terms of where we should look to bet this week?
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NFL Week 11 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
- Moneyline: Commanders +142; Eagles -170
- Total: 49.5
The Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders are fairly even teams at this point in the season, so this game should be fascinating. Our PR+ metric grades them almost identically, with the Eagles having the edge defensively and the Commanders having the edge offensively.
The short week should suit the home team, but Philadelphia had a road game in Dallas on Sunday afternoon and did not arrive home until early Monday morning.
The tough part when evaluating this game is that both teams have played schedules that rank among the five easiest in the league, so we don’t know if either is a real challenger in the NFC or a product of a soft schedule to this point.
Jalen Hurts has played excellently in recent weeks, but that soft schedule makes it tough to determine how well he’s been.
Jalen Hurts, who was pressured on over half of his dropbacks against the Cowboys (53.6%), finished 7-of-9 for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns passing under pressure (+27.2% CPOE).
Since Week 3, Hurts has thrown 4 TDs and 0 INTs under pressure.#PHIvsDAL | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/zmuP9LY5ej
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 11, 2024
The edge here goes with the home team and the one with the better defense. The Eagles should also have the advantage of a veteran quarterback playing on a short week, but the coaching advantage likely resides with Washington and Dan Quinn. It shouldn’t be another shootout like we saw last Thursday, but it has the makings of another tight game.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Commanders 21
Pick: Pass
Update: This line has moved past the key number -3 to -3.5 for the Eagles. Our PR+ metrics has this as a 3-point game, so we would lean towards the Commanders with the hook, but it’s still a pass.
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
- Moneyline: Vikings -270; Titans +220
- Total: 39.5
Everything in the metrics tells you that this should be an easy play on the Minnesota Vikings, who are ranked in the top five of our PR+ and have the edge both offensively and defensively.
However, Sam Darnold’s struggles are making it hard to fully lean in on the Vikings, given that he has now thrown five interceptions in the last two weeks. Then again, Minnesota has won both games by a total of 13 points despite that.
The Vikings have the edge across the board, and if Darnold can just stop making as many mistakes, they should be capable of comfortably winning against this Tennessee Titans team.
There’s a huge gulf in talent between these teams, and the Vikings have another opportunity to get things clicking before their schedule gets tougher down the stretch.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Titans 10
Pick: Vikings -6.5
Update: The line has ticked down to Vikings -6, making this an even better play in our mind. We liked it at -6.5 and as long as it stays less than a TD, this is a play on the Vikings.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) at Chicago Bears
- Moneyline: Packers -285; Bears +230
- Total: 41.5
The Chicago Bears are in huge trouble as their overall play continues to fall off. Their one calling card is that they’ve remained solid defensively, but it has counted for very little, with the offense now ranking as a bottom-six unit in the league.
If Jordan Love is fully healthy, the Green Bay Packers should have a clear advantage here. However, it likely won’t be a comfortable cover with this Bears defense.
The Packers are ranked 11th offensively and 17th defensively. Meanwhile, the Bears are 27th on offense and fifth on defense.
That defensive ability would normally count for a lot here, but Chicago has scored just 12 points in the last two weeks and 27 points since its bye. With the Bears’ defense being good but the offense continuing to struggle, the under comes into play, as well as the Packers laying the points.
Prediction: Packers 24, Bears 13
Pick: Packers -6.5, Packers -0.5 in a teaser, Under 41.5
Update: The Packers opened as a 6.5 point favorite and that has dropped to 5.5, making this an even better play on Green Bay. The under has moved down a point as well, so if you were on that, buyer beware.
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Moneyline: Ravens -162; Steelers +136
- Total: 47
On Thursday Night Football, we saw just how difficult it can be to trust the Baltimore Ravens’ defense on a week-to-week basis, which makes it difficult to back them in any individual game.
Yet, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense is not as good as the Cincinnati Bengals’, ranking 20th. Therefore, they are unlikely to be able to move the ball as freely against the Ravens as the Bengals did.
The battle between Baltimore’s offense and Pittsburgh’s defense will be intriguing. Both teams rank inside the top 10. The Steelers did struggle at times with the Commanders, and the Ravens are the next level up from that. Baltimore should be able to score on the Steelers, but Pittsburgh should be able to score as well, making this a different type of battle between these two fierce rivals.
The over is intriguing here, but that doesn’t sit comfortably in a Steelers-Ravens matchup. The last five matchups have seen 30 points or less scored, and only two of the last 10 games have gone over 40 points. These two coaching staffs know each other so well that it makes this a tough game to predict.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 21
Pick: Pass
Update: There has been no movement on this line, consistently staying at Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh. The total has moved up from 47 to 48 if you want to take the shot at fading Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and company.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-3)
- Moneyline: Colts +130; Jet -155
- Total: 44
The matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets is a semi-playoff elimination game in the AFC. Amazingly, both teams are still within two games of the No. 7 seed, but a loss in Week 11 would put them massively on the back foot.
These two teams are fairly even overall, ranking 17th and 19th in our PR+ metric. The Jets have the superiority on offense and defense but have played the slightly easier schedule, while the Colts have the superiority on special teams.
The edge here goes to New York being at home and facing a dome team in mid-November, but both of them are tough to trust in any given week.
In a pick ’em format, the Jets are the play here, but laying points with them is tough to do. So from a betting perspective, this game is a pass.
Prediction: Jets 21, Colts 20
Pick: Pass
Update: PFN+ has this game a close 1-point win. The line has moved from Jets -3 up to Jets -4, so if you already liked the Colts, this gets even better. If you were thinking of taking the Jets at that key number of -3, the bad news is it went up to 4. Still a pass here.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-13)
- Moneyline: Jaguars +550; Lions -800
- Total: 48
The Detroit Lions survived their mini implosion on Sunday Night Football in Houston, sneaking out with a win at the buzzer. They now head home to face a Jacksonville Jaguars team that could be without Trevor Lawrence for the second straight week.
The Lions are the superior team in almost every facet of the game, with the Jaguars having a minor edge on special teams. Detroit has proven before to sweep bad teams aside, and that is what Jacksonville is.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 30th this season, and their offense is just 16th. And that was with Lawrence under center for the majority of the year.
Laying 13 points is tough, but we saw the Lions sweep aside the Cowboys (47-9) and Titans (52-14), who are similar-level teams to the Jaguars. If you have a partner to tease this game with, bringing it down to a touchdown might be a better play, but the Lions have proven they can beat bad teams convincingly.
Prediction: Lions 38, Jaguars 10
Pick: Lions -13 and Lions -7 in a teaser
Update: This line has not moved at all. As noted above, laying 13 in an NFL game is tough to do, so moving this down to a teaser is an option that many will be on. Teams are 5-0 ATS this season when favored by over 9 points.
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at New England Patriots
- Moneyline: Rams -238; Patriots +195
- Total: 43.5
The New England Patriots have been tough in many games this season, and Drake Maye has definitely made this offense more competitive. However, they are still the 31st-ranked team in terms of PR+, so they shouldn’t be a major threat to the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams, after losing on Monday Night Football, are ranked 18th, with superior offense and defense and a much tougher schedule.
The great equalizer here is that we have a dome team heading east to play what is likely to be, at the very least, a cold-weather game in New England. That is my only hesitation in laying the 5.5 points with Los Angeles in this matchup.
Historically, the Rams’ offense stumbles when playing outside, especially in colder weather environments. The under could be the best play here, with uncertainty over both offenses.
Prediction: Rams 20, Patriots 17
Pick: Under 43.5
Update: No movement on the under 43.5 but if you liked laying the 5.5 on the Rams, they are now down to 4.5 on the road across the country after a Monday night football game.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Browns +114; Saints -135
- Total: 44
The New Orleans Saints stopped their losing streak in Week 10, but it was far from a convincing performance. They still rank 23rd overall in PR+ with a below-average offense and defense and a schedule on the easier side of average. However, they’re not a bad team and showed that under new leadership.
The Cleveland Browns are a tough team to judge. We saw them shine in Week 8 when beating the Ravens but fell apart against the Los Angeles Chargers the following week. That is very much the Jameis Winston experience, and knowing which version might show up is anyone’s guess.
Cleveland’s defense is a top-10 unit this season, and when Winston plays well, they are a league-average offense.
Ultimately, it makes sense to pass on this game. Neither side is particularly good, and Winston is a wild card. The Saints could easily slip back a few levels in their second week after Dennis Allen’s departure, so backing them to win two in a row wouldn’t be a wise move.
Prediction: Browns 20, Saints 17
Pick: Pass
Update: We’ve seen major line movement here as the Saints opened as a 2.5-point home favorite and are now only favored by a single point. Good news if you liked the Saints, but this is a pass between two bad teams.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7)
- Moneyline: Raiders +270; Dolphins -340
- Total: 45.5
The Miami Dolphins head into Monday night on the back of a couple of strong performances despite losing on both occasions. They have a league-average offense and defense on the year, but Miami’s offense is closer to being a top-10 unit when Tua Tagovailoa is under center and has top-five potential.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders just fired their offensive staff after ranking as the 29th-best offense in the NFL this season. Their defense isn’t much better, ranking 25th, but some of that can be put down to having the 10th-hardest schedule to date.
The Dolphins have the advantage on offense and defense, so barring an injury on Monday night, they should win this matchup. We have no idea what the Raiders’ new look will be like, but given their personnel limitations, they’re unlikely to be significantly better than what we’ve seen.
If you’re not comfortable with laying seven points, then the Dolphins laying under a field goal as a teaser is an option.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Raiders 17
Pick: Dolphins -7 or Dolphins -1 in a teaser
Update: No movement on the line as the Dolphins remain a 7-point favorite at home vs the Raiders. However, after the Dolphins defensive performance at the Rams on MNF, the total has dropped from 45.5 to 44, which is exactly what PFN+ predicts.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
- Moneyline: Seahawks +260; 49ers -325
- Total: 49.5
We saw the reverse of this matchup back in Week 6 when the San Francisco 49ers went into Seattle and won 36-24. That should be a good sign for this game being played at home, plus the 49ers have the advantage in metrics.
San Francisco ranks 10th in our PR+, while Seattle ranks 16th. Both are fairly even on defense, but the 49ers have a top-10-ranked offense compared to the Seahawks’ 15th-ranked offense.
The 49ers haven’t been convincing this year, but the Seahawks have had plenty of issues. Therefore, San Francisco has the opportunity to cover this week. Yet, with any spread in the 4-10 region, there’s always the concern of a potential back-door cover.
Prediction: 49ers 27, Seahawks 17
Pick: 49ers -7
Update: Much like the Dolphins-Raiders game, no movement on the spread but movement on the total as we’ve seen it drop from 49.5 to 48. PFN has this at 44, so there is still some value on the under.
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Falcons +105; Broncos -125
- Total: 44
The Denver Broncos nearly made a huge statement in Kansas City, but their last-second field goal was blocked as they slipped to 5-5 on the season. Nevertheless, going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs on the road was impressive.
The Broncos have been consistently inside the top 10 of our PR+ standings, thanks in large part to a defense that has been in and around the top three for most of the season.
The Atlanta Falcons also had field-goal issues in their loss to the Saints, missing an opportunity to command the NFC South. The Falcons are not a team that fares well in our metrics, ranking 22nd in PR+, with their defense and special teams both ranking 28th.
Atlanta’s offense is 10th, but its schedule ranks among the 10 easiest so far this year, making it hard to judge how good they really are.
The metrics tell us that the Broncos should be able to win this game. Denver’s defense is the best unit in this game, while the Falcons’ defense ranks as the worst. The concern with Denver is that its offense can struggle to put a game out of sight, which can leave them vulnerable.
This game could look a lot like Denver’s 26-7 beat down of the Buccaneers in Week 3. That puts the under in play as an option this week as well.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Falcons 13
Pick: Broncos -1.5 and Under 44
Update: The line has moved up a point with the Broncos now favored by 2.5 instead of 1.5. We hope you got that bet in before it moved, but PFN+ still likes it, predicting a two-score Broncos win.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Chiefs +105; Bills -125
- Total: 45.5
This matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs is shaping up nicely. Both are comfortable spots in terms of their divisions, so this is an opportunity for a potential playoff matchup preview. For added spice, this game could significantly impact who ends up with the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in that potential second meeting.
Both teams grade out fairly evenly in our metrics, which is how the sportsbooks appear to be viewing it, with a slight edge being given to Buffalo for the home field. Both have top-10 offenses and defenses that rank just outside the top 10. The Chiefs have faced a tougher schedule to this point, so they may be more battle-hardened if the game is close in the fourth quarter.
This game is a pass. The two sides are evenly matched, and this is likely to be a tense affair. With the two sides potentially set for a playoff meeting, neither is likely to empty their box of tricks chasing a Week 11 win.
This may well come down to the final possession and even the final kick. Kansas City has experience of a few of those games this season, and my lean goes to Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in the clutch.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 21
Pick: Pass
Update: The line has ticked up from 1.5 to 2.5 with the Bills still favored. This is good news for those riding the “Mahomes as a dog” train as he is 12-1-1 all-time as an underdog.
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Bengals +114; Chargers -135
- Total: 46
It has worked out nicely that the Sunday Night Football game in Week 11 will have huge playoff implications. The 4-6 Bengals desperately need a win, and the Los Angeles Chargers will know that a win puts them in an increasingly strong position in the Wild Card race.
In terms of PR+, the Chargers have the edge overall, ranking 15th compared to 21st for the Bengals. Cincinnati has the better offense, with a top-10 unit, compared to a 22nd-ranked offense for Los Angeles.
Yet, the Chargers have the best unit in this game, with their defense ranking third. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ defense, which ranks 31st, is the worst unit in this game.
Other than pushing the Ravens all the way twice, the Bengals have struggled this year against good competition. Their four wins have come against teams that combine for nine wins on the season, while they’ve lost against every team they’ve played with a winning record. However, all their losses, with the exception of the Eagles, have been within one score, so don’t expect Cincinnati to get run out of this one.
Three points is pretty much spot on for this game. And while the under is tempting, given that the Chargers haven’t allowed more than 20 points all season, this Bengals team has been quite exciting this year. This game is a lean to the Chargers, laying the 2.5 and a lean to the under.
Prediction: Chargers 23, Bengals 20
Pick: Pass
Update: Movement all over the place here as the line has moved down from 2.5 to 1.5 for the favored Chargers, with the total going up from 46 to 48. The Chargers have not allowed a team to score more than 20 points all season.
Houston Texans (-7) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Texans -7; Cowboys +275
- Total: 42
What a frustrating loss for Houston on Sunday night. They dominated that game for large portions but couldn’t put together a complete 60 minutes.
That has been the story of the Texans’ season, having only won one game this year by more than a score. They rank 18th in PR+, with their defense just inside the top 10 and the offense down at 24th.
Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys are in all kinds of trouble. They weren’t a good team with Dak Prescott under center, and with Cooper Rush/Trey Lance, they looked thoroughly hapless. If the Texans cannot put away a team with one of the worst quarterback situations right now, who rank 28th in PR+, then there will be some serious alarm bells.
I hate laying seven points with the Texans just because of their inability to consistently put it all together. However, they handled their business against the woeful Patriots in Week 6, and this Cowboys team might actually be worse in its current guise.
The under is in play here, but the Texans could score 35-40 points on their own if the offense can find a groove.
Prediction: Texans 24, Cowboys 13
Pick: Pass
Update: The number has gone past the key number of 7 to 7.5 for the road Texans. PF+ still projects this as a 2-score win for Houston, so not an issue here.