The Detroit Lions (-3.5, 49) will travel to take on the Houston Texans in Week 10.
Below are our final picks for the game, which include contributions from Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Analyst Kyle Soppe, and/or Analyst Jason Katz.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Sam LaPorta Under 3.5 Receptions
(Jason Katz) In eight games this season, LaPorta has caught more than three passes in three of them. He’s caught no more than two passes in his other five games. In fact, LaPorta has seen more than three targets in a game only three times this season.
I did some quick math, and as it turns out, it’s impossible to catch more than three passes if a player doesn’t see more than three targets. Who knew?
This week, the Lions get a Texans defense that has been excellent, defending the tight end this season. Only four teams see opponents throw to the tight end at a lower rate, and the Texans’ total receiving yards allowed to the position is a paltry 10.5%, the lowest in the league.
With Jameson Williams back and Jared Goff attempting a career-low 26.4 passes per game, LaPorta is unlikely to see significant volume in this one.
Pick: Lions ML, Lions -3.5
(Kyle Soppe) Are the Lions the best team in the NFL? They are certainly in the conversation, if not leading it, and this number feels a bit disrespectful. Nico Collins is eligible to come off of IR this week, but he wasn’t practicing initially, and that leads me to believe that the recent struggles of this Houston offense could continue
Without Nico Collins (Weeks 6-9)
- 33.3% third down
- 47.1% red zone conversion rate
- 20.8% TD
2024 Tennessee Titans
- 35.8% third down
- 52% red zone conversion rate
- 15.6% TD
That’s … brutal. The Lions, as you might imagine, are on the other side of that equation
Detroit Lions (Weeks 4-9)
- 3.31 points per drive
- 80% red zone conversion rate
- 6.4 yards per play
2007 New England Patriots
- 3.19 points per drive
- 69.4% red zone conversion rate
- 6.2 yards per play
Entering this week, teams favored by more than a field goal in primetime have covered eight of their past nine while winning 17 of their past 18 outright. I’ll take the bait and ride with the road team – both on the moneyline (1.5 units) and against the number (0.75 units).
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Lions vs. Texans Game Stats and Insights
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions’ +110 point differential is fourth-best through eight games in franchise history (their best since posting a +144 margin in 1954).
QB: Jared Goff ranks first or second in the league in completion percentage, yards per pass, and passer rating – he faces a defense this week that has allowed a touchdown on a league-high 6.9% of passes.
Offense: The Lions turn the ball over just 0.63 times per game, which is fueling their league-best turnover margin (+1.38 per game).
Defense: The Lions are one of four defenses to rank in the top 10 in both blitz and pressure rate (Broncos, Browns, and Chiefs).
Fantasy: Jahmyr Gibbs is producing despite not flashing the versatility we thought he’d need next to David Montgomery – the second-year back has failed to catch multiple passes in four of his past six games.
Betting: The Lions have covered eight of their past nine indoor games, including three road games.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans have converted just five of 14 red zone trips (35.7%) into touchdowns over their past three games, down from their 75% rate through Week 6 (12-of-16).
QB: C.J. Stroud will likely get Nico Collins back this week, a return that can’t come soon enough.
Hear me out
Top Row: Stroud's season numbers
Row 2: With Collins on the field
Row 3: Without Collins on the fieldWhat if HOU finishes 13-4 (7-1 ROS)?
"Moment" games remain with DET, KC, BALHis value has been proven over the last month. What if he shows out? pic.twitter.com/sIoEqh3HuM
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) November 1, 2024
Offense: C.J. Stroud’s 17-game pace this season in games started by Nico Collins is 4,709 yards, a far cry from the version of him that we’ve seen over the past month (under 200 passing yards in three of four games and just one touchdown toss over his past three).
Defense: The Texans have the third-worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing a touchdown on 69.6% of opponent trips (league average: 56.7%).
Fantasy: Joe Mixon appears to be aging in reverse.
- Week 6 at New England Patriots: 15 touches, 75.4% production over expectation
- Week 7 at Green Bay Packers: 27 touches, 21.3% production over expectation
- Week 8 vs. Indianapolis Colts: 29 touches, 9.1% production over expectation
- Week 9 at New York Jets: 24 touches, 10.4% production over expectation
He’s found paydirt in all four of those games. He’s a 20-plus yard rush in all four of those games. He’s cleared 100 rushing yards in all four of those games.
Betting: Five straight Texan home games (and eight of the past nine) have gone under the total.