America will either witness a Miami Dolphins resurrection or a funeral on Monday night.
Those are the stakes when Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins (2-6) visit Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams (4-4) in Miami’s third nationally televised game of the year.
Miami Dolphins-Los Angeles Rams Game Preview
The Dolphins entered Week 10 as the AFC’s No. 12 seed and a very long shot to make the playoffs (9.6%, per PFN’s playoff predictor). The Rams, meanwhile, have a much clearer path and are even 3-in-10 to win the NFC.
Yet Vegas sees this game as little more than a coin flip, a reflection of growing bullishness toward the Dolphins after Tua Tagovailoa’s return from concussion protocol.
The Dolphins as of Saturday afternoon were 1.5-point underdogs. The moneylines were LAR -125, MIA +105, with an over/under of 49.
The betting public isn’t a believer in the Dolphins. Seventy-seven percent of the bets and 85% of the money were on the Rams as of Saturday.
Can the Dolphins prove them wrong? We break it down, with stats courtesy of TruMedia.
Seven Dolphins-Rams Stats From TruMedia
Stat: What a turnaround. Miami’s offensive success rate over the past two weeks has been 51.9% (Weeks 1-7: 36.7%).
Analysis: Tagoaviloa has been excellent since returning from his four-game stint on injured reserve. He has completed 46 of 57 passes (80.7%) when not pressured.
Here are our QB Rankings for Week 9 using our QB+ Metric 🏈
Our QB+ metric looks at several statistics, including net yards per attempt (nYPA), third-down conversion rate, passing under pressure, and passing from a clean pocket. Additionally, we have quantified performances in… pic.twitter.com/izQTQaUR3j
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 6, 2024
Stat: In 2023, the Rams lost three straight games before their bye and won seven of eight following the week off. This season, they were 1-4 before their bye and have won all three games since.
Analysis: The Rams are hitting their stride, particularly on defense. After surrendering 27.8 points per game in their first five, they’re allowing just 18.3 during their current winning streak.
Stat: Opposing defenses have blitzed the Dolphins on only 13.9% of dropbacks. The Bengals at 17% are the only other offense under 18.6% this season.
Analysis: Smart answer by OC Frank Smith this week when asked if the lack of blitzes Miami has seen this year impacts how the Dolphins prepare for games:
“We always have to prepare that the 10% could be the 100%. Otherwise, you’ll be sitting here next week going, ‘Why didn’t you guys plan for that pressure?’ ‘Yeah, well, 90% of the time they said they weren’t going to do it, and I was playing the percentages.’ No, if it’s 2%, 5%, 10%, you got to assume that it could be 50% any day, so you always prepare for it.”
Stat: Puka Nacua got ejected late in the first half, which impacted his QB in a major way. In Week 9, Matthew Stafford completed just two of 10 third-down passes — in Weeks 1-8, he owned a 59.2% completion rate on third downs.
Analysis: The Dolphins’ third-down defense (33%) has been excellent, particularly considering they’re 30th in the league in sack rate (4.4%). The return of Zach Sieler (eye) should help with that.
Stat: The Dolphins are forcing just 0.75 turnovers per game, tied with the Cowboys for the fourth-fewest through nine weeks.
Analysis: You could sense the frustration from DC Anthony Weaver this week about Miami’s lack of takeaways this year. “Certainly disappointing because it has been a point of emphasis from the very moment I stepped foot here in Miami, so certainly something we’ve got to continue to work on,” Weaver said.
Stat: Over the past two weeks, 76.7% of Los Angeles’ yards have come through the air (Weeks 3-7: 62.6%).
Analysis: The Dolphins’ pass defense has been terrible in the second halves of their last three games (all losses). They’ve allowed 211.3 yards (6.3 per play), 8.5 net yards per attempt, and conversions on 44.4% third downs and 100% fourth downs.
Stat: The Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pressure rate this season (38.8%) despite blitzing just 25.4% of the time (league average: 25.8%).
Analysis: All eyes will be on Kendall Lamm in place of Austin Jackson at right tackle on Monday. The Dolphins will start their third different OL combination in nine games.
Dolphins vs. Rams Predictions
David Bearman (87-50 on the season): Rams
Adam Beasley (87-50): Dolphins
Anthony DiBona (83-54): Rams
Mike Gambardella (89-48): Rams
Dakota Randall (84-53): Rams
Dallas Robinson (87-50): Rams
Kyle Soppe (93-44): Dolphins
Dan Tomaro (81-56): Dolphins
Mike Wobschall (87-36): Rams
Full Week 10 picks from PFN are available here.