Week 10’s “Sunday Night Football” matchup features one of the highest-powered offenses in the league in the Detroit Lions as well as a Houston Texans team full of star power but struggling in recent weeks.
Using DraftKings salaries, here are my DFS recommendations for SNF contests.
Week 10 Sunday Night DFS Showdown Picks
- CPT: Jared Goff ($14,400)
- FLEX: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($11,000)
- FLEX: David Montgomery ($8,200)
- FLEX: Jameson Williams ($6,800)
- FLEX: Lions D/ST ($4,000)
- FLEX: Ka’imi Fairbairn ($5,200)
Week 10 DFS: All-In on the Lions’ Passing Game
The clear weak link in this game is Houston’s pass defense. The Texans have allowed the fourth-most PPR points to wide receiver while also ranking 24th against quarterbacks.
The big matchup issue is that the Texans love to blitz, which could spell doom against the Lions. Houston blitzes at the third-highest rate (31%), but Goff has the best EPA per dropback against the blitz this season (0.54). When blitzed, Goff has averaged an absurd 11.7 yards per attempt while completing just under 80% of his passes, throwing nine touchdowns to one interception.
no defense gets more out of blitzes than Brian Flores Vikings
but Jared Goff absolutely destroyed his Vikings blitz
13-of-14 (93%)
11.6 YPA
+0.66 EPA/att
67% successGoff is now #1 in the NFL v blitz this year
playing great & Ben Johnson has given him a ton of answers v blitz pic.twitter.com/CLkQ8YPc6U
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 21, 2024
Goff has a cheaper DFS salary than many quarterbacks due to inconsistent volume, but the chunk plays and touchdowns should be there in this game. Roster his top two receivers as well: in six games where both St. Brown and Williams have played, they’ve combined to gobble up 46% of the targets, 46% of the receiving yards, and 64% of the receiving touchdowns.
Week 10 DFS: David Montgomery and Special Teamers
There are three high-level running backs in this game. Joe Mixon ($10,800) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($9,200) are higher-upside options, but they also come at a higher cost than Montgomery.
If you’re going to splurge on the centerpieces of Detroit’s passing game, you can still ensure one of the premier running backs playing is in your lineup via Montgomery. The workload continues to be split almost exactly 50-50 between the two, with both scoring seven times.
Montgomery continues to be the preferred goal-line back, however, making him a better value play than Gibbs at $1,000 cheaper. Montgomery has taken 10 carries from the five-yard line or closer this season, compared to six for Gibbs. Both have scored on half of those goal-line touches.
As for the rest of your lineup, the Lions’ defense has actually performed very well in recent weeks despite Aidan Hutchinson being out. Since Hutchinson’s season-ending injury in Week 6, the Lions rank first(!) in defensive EPA per play (0.18). They’ve also managed to sustain the ninth-highest pressure rate in that span, even without Hutchinson.
That should come in handy against a Houston offense that has disintegrated amid poor pass protection. C.J. Stroud is being pressured at the sixth-highest rate this season and may not have top receiver Nico Collins back. Stroud is averaging an absurd 1.83 EPA per play when targeting Collins under pressure but a negative 0.48 EPA per play when targeting anyone else while pressured.
That makes Houston’s kicker Fairbairn the only safe and affordable DFS option for the Texans in this game. Fairbairn is the No. 3 overall kicker in fantasy this season, thanks in part to a league-leading 10 field goals made from 50+ yards.