The New York Jets will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Jets skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers posted his second-best QB+ grade of the season on Thursday night, and it came in about as goofy of a way as you can imagine.
In the first half, he matched a career low for passing yards in a half (minimum 10 attempts) with 32, and the Jets’ fans wanted the franchise to be sold. In the final 30 minutes, however, he had as many touchdowns as incompletions (three) on his way to his best second-half passer rating (147.7) since being perfect in Week 11, 2021.
Rodgers was getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry and to the right guys — Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson accounted for 65.6% of his targets and a mind-boggling 85.8% of his passing yards. It goes without saying that rates like that aren’t sustainable, but I’m encouraged by his willingness to put his best players in a position to determine the outcome of the game (and his fantasy day).
The Cardinals’ defense ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in passer rating, yards per attempt, and pressure rate. Could this just be the beginning of an epic Rodgers run? Could the nation handle that?
I’m not sure the answer to either of those questions, but I can tell you that the four-time MVP is back inside of my top 10 this week and trending in an awfully optimistic direction given the upcoming schedule (Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Rams).
Braelon Allen, RB
Braelon Allen’s run of production early in the season now feels like a lifetime ago. The explosive rookie entered Week 9 with a 20.5-yard rushing yard prop and never once threatened to surpass that number as he failed to clear five carries for the fourth time in his past five games. For the season, he’s been on the field for 26.2% of New York’s offensive snaps, not yet clearing 36% in a game.
It’s plenty fine to like the talent and roster the kid (14 more routes than rush attempts this season), but understand that you’re doing it as a high-end handcuff and not a player with a path to stand-alone value barring an injury to Breece Hall.
Breece Hall, RB
For the first time since Oct. 2022, Breece Hall had 15 carries in consecutive games. We’ve seen a handful of running backs break out in a big way this season, and while Hall isn’t yet on that list (4.0 yards per carry this season with just one score over the past six weeks), I very much think it’s coming.
- September: 5.8% of carries gained 10+ yards
- October: 17.1% of carries gained 10+ yards
It’s coming. I continue to be impressed with New York’s willingness to use him as a legitimate route runner (his aDOT is up to 1.0 from -0.5 last season, and even that only reflects targets — he’s running downfield far more than he did last season); with the Braelon Allen experiment seemingly over in terms of a committee threat, Hall’s best days of 2024 are likely ahead of him.
You’re playing Hall every week no matter what I say, but I think you should be excited about what he can bring to the table over the final two months of the season.
Davante Adams, WR
Rodgers missed him on a double move to start last week, and as the camera panned to see a baffled quarterback, fantasy managers everywhere got the “here we go again” vibes less than 15 seconds into Week 9.
But what’s this? A connection is allowed to improve with time?
This duo connected on a similar play with under three minutes left to ice the game (37-yard score), and Davante Adams finished with a strong 7-91-1 stat line with a 34.4% target share. Growth isn’t linear, but Adams’ production relative to expectations has consistently spiked in New York (59.5% below expectations in Week 7, 10.7% below in Week 8, and 25.4% over on Thursday night).
I don’t think we are going to get vintage Adams from his peak with the Packers, but a locked-in top-15 receiver is plenty reasonable. Keep reading and you’ll get to my Garrett Wilson analysis – Spoiler Alert: if Rodgers regresses from what we saw in the second half last week, I don’t think it comes at Adams’ expense.
Garrett Wilson, WR
Woah.
Last Thursday night, Garrett Wilson was down-right special (9-90-2). From invoking memories of Odell Beckham Jr. to one of the better QB/WR placement/catch plays that will never be remembered due to the aforementioned highlight, this was the version of the former Buckeye we thought we’d see regularly in 2024.
THROW GARRETT WILSON THE BALL 👏
Any time TD scorer: (+180) ✅
via @nyjets | #JetUppic.twitter.com/oeucAH3nHK
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) November 1, 2024
Wilson put you on a great path to success in Week 9, but this isn’t a Week 9 article, is it?
On the left is Aaron Rodgers’ pass chart from Halloween; on the right is the first eight weeks of this season. He hit on a few big plays, and that’s great, but we are in the business of predicting what will happen in the future and using trends from the past to do so.
Rodgers, Week 9:
- 15.6% of attempts were deep downfield
- 78.1% quick release rate
- 5.8 average depth of throw
Rodgers, Weeks 1-8:
- 23.4% of attempts were deep downfield
- 70.1% quick release rate
- 7.1 average depth of throw
You remember the home-run shots, but in reality, Week 9’s game plan was as conservative and timing-based as any Rodgers has put on film this season. Why am I listing those stats with Wilson instead of Rodgers, you ask?
Because they scare me.
I’m normally a “glass half full” type, but I’m worried that what we just saw from Wilson is destined to be the exception, not the norm. Those Rodgers metrics, to me, reflect a desire to get the ball out of his hands. I think that’s the right approach, I just don’t think it allows Wilson to thrive on a consistent basis, not based on his current usage patterns anyway.
This season, Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not. On the whole, that profile is good for the upside but bad for sustainability.
In Philadelphia, they have an inverse situation, but the teaching point remains. Over the past calendar year, DeVonta Smith’s aDOT is 24% higher when A.J. Brown is off the field than when he is on it. In those deeper target situations, his per-target fantasy production has dipped over 33%.
Thankfully, for Smith managers, Brown doesn’t miss much time, so that split isn’t as worrisome. For Wilson, the Jets are only going to put Adams on the field more with time as they attempt to save this season with a very manageable schedule ahead.
Wilson will have his moments moving forward because he’s a great player, and Rodgers proved last week that there is still gas in the tank. However, I’m very interested in testing the trade markets as deadlines approach — this might well prove to be the peak of his 2024 value.
Tyler Conklin, TE
You would think that Aaron Rodgers showing signs of form would be a boon to the value of his starting tight end. But as it turns out, Rodgers was able to get rolling by almost exclusively featuring his top two pass-catchers… go figure.
In the Week 9 win, New York’s top receiver not named Adams or Wilson had — checks notes — 12 receiving yards. This is a low-volume offense that is highly condensed, and that leaves players like Tyler Conklin (under five air yards in three of his past four games) out in the cold.
There are a handful of tight ends on your waiver wire that I’d rather take a shot on than Conklin.
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals Insights
New York Jets
Team: New York is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass after the completion this season (4.4, league average: 5.3).
QB: The Jets own the highest red zone pass rate in the league this season (59.3%, league average: 34.2%).
Offense: New York is making minor strides in converting third downs. In Weeks 4-5, they picked up just 26.5% of their third downs, a rate that rose to 31.8% in Weeks 6-7 and to 40.9% over the past two weeks.
Defense: A league-high 45.6% of yards gained against the Jets come on the ground (league average: 35.6%).
Fantasy: Garrett Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not – something that adds both upside (like what we saw on Thursday night against the Texans) and downside into his fantasy profile.
Betting: The Jets have failed to cover three straight road games (cumulative cover margin in those games: -38) and eight of their past 10.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Arizona is 5-4 this season after winning just five of their previous 27 games.
QB: Three times over the past month, Kyler Murray failed to rush for 20 yards (prior to this stretch, 49.4 rush yards per game).
Offense: Arizona averages 4.78 runs per game of 10-plus yards, a figure that sits behind only Lamar Jackson’s Ravens through nine weeks.
Defense: The Cardinals have the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL (48.2%, only one-tenth of a point ahead of the Panthers).
Fantasy: James Conner continues to be a good story, but be careful – his fantasy points per touch is pacing to decline for a third straight season (every year of his Arizona career) and this is still ap layer who has missed multiple games in every season entering 2024.
Betting: The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS (28.6%) in their last seven games when their opponent enters on extended rest (the Jets beat the Texans last Thursday night).