The Minnesota Vikings will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold was in control from start to finish against the Colts on Sunday night, completing 28 of his 34 passes for 290 yards and three scores in the win. He had two interceptions, but the overall efficiency was back to where it was early in the season as he seems to have rediscovered his footing after a messy game in London against the Jets (over 8.5 yards per pass in three straight games).
Jaguars’ pass defense, 2024:
- 29th in touchdown rate
- 30th in interception rate
- 30th in yards per pass
- 30th in completion percentage
- 32nd in passer rating
This Jacksonville defense is about as vulnerable as it gets. With Minnesota having very little room for error in the tight NFC North, I’d expect them to come in with a strong plan to pick at every weakness.
I’m not sure that Darnold will be a top-10 play for me in Week 11 or 12 (Titans and Bears), but I have no reservations about ranking him as such this weekend.
Aaron Jones, RB
Aaron Jones has one of the more unique profiles among running backs. On one hand, he’s gained just 122 yards on 40 carries over the past two weeks, both in favorable matchups (Rams and Colts). On the other, he has a catch of 14+ yards in seven straight games and has at least four red-zone touches in five of his past seven games.
The Jaguars are the second-worst red-zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown on 69.7% of trips, and that is more than enough to start Jones with confidence. That said, I want it on record that I still have questions about this Vikings team; if those concerns come through, Jones’ efficiency struggles could prove to be costly when your league is on the line.
- Weeks 1-7: 7.6% over expectation
- Weeks 8-9: 35% below expectation
Jordan Addison, WR
Jordan Addison had a strong rookie season, but he’s yet to show much in the way of growth (under 13% on-field target share in three straight games). That has proven prohibitive for him to develop into a consistent option.
Addison has been a viable option three times this season and could, in theory, make it four with a matchup against the most forgiving defense in the league in terms of receiver production. However, I’m operating with caution.
Jalen Nailor scored last week (his fourth of the season), but with T.J. Hockenson working his way back to a full-time role, there’s simply more risk than reward. Holding onto Addison is acceptable for now, though with bye weeks in bulk coming, you may be forced to make a difficult decision — cutting ties should be viewed as an option.
Justin Jefferson, WR
I made the case for Amon-Ra St. Brown’s consistency placing him atop the WR board for the next 14 months, and Justin Jefferson comes preloaded with similarly consistent production (yet to finish worse than WR21 this season.
The scary part is that there is a clear path to Jefferson’s stock gaining in value. Thus far, the All-Pro is pacing for his best season in terms of production over expectation, remarkable when you consider that his red-zone usage sits at its lowest rate since his rookie campaign.
It must be something about these WR1s in the NFC North — you can’t go wrong!
T.J. Hockenson, TE
T.J. Hockenson played only 45.1% of the snaps on Sunday, his season debut (2023: 79.6%), but he did post an 11.5-yard aDOT (2023: 7.6), an interesting development. Does it stick?
I wouldn’t bank on it. I saw some general worries come across my timeline with Josh Oliver hauling in all five of his targets (58 yards and a TD) on Sunday, but I’d argue that is more encouraging than discouraging. When trying to project Hockenson moving forward, I want the TE position to be productive — I’m plenty comfortable in assuming that a healthy version of him takes over the lead role before long.
We may see the veteran tight end’s snap share slowly work back to what we saw last season, but in this matchup, I’m running through that stop sign and plugging him in where I have him. Through nine weeks, the Jags own the worst yards-per-play defense, in large part because they allow the sixth-highest percentage of yards gained against them to come through the air (67.9%).
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars Insights
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have been sacked on 10.4% of their dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league (Browns: 11.3%).
QB: After returning from an ugly London performance (14-of-31 against the Jets), Sam Darnold has completed 68-of-86 passes (79.1%).
Offense: The Vikings have been trailing for a league-low 16% of their offensive snaps (the Chargers are the only other team under 25.8% this season).
Defense: Take your shots deep – no team has seen opponents throw 15-plus yards downfield more times per game this season (9.1 per game).
Fantasy: T.J. Hockenson played only 45.1% of the snaps on Sunday, his season debut (2023: 79.6%), but he did post an 11.5-yard aDOT (2023: 7.6).
Betting: The Vikings are 7-2-2 ATS (77.8%) in their 11 road games.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: Jacksonville is 2-7 with five losses coming by five or fewer points.
QB: Trevor Lawrence’s passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown-to-interception ratio when not pressured are all tracking down for a second straight season.
Offense: The Jaguars average 0.67 plays of 50-plus yards per game this season, trailing only the Ravens’ 0.78 mark.
Defense: Jacksonville is allowing a first down on 39.1% of passes, the second-highest rate in the league (worse: Panthers).
Fantasy: Parker Washington earned a 20% target share and racked up 103 air yards. Jacksonville is an underdog or favored by fewer than two points in seven of their final eight games, a game script that makes this waiver wire add an interesting option coming down the stretch.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 in the Jaguars last 13 games when being installed as a home underdog.