The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Denver Broncos in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Last season, Patrick Mahomes threw just one touchdown pass against three interceptions against the Broncos (two games and 78 pass attempts). In fact, the division as a whole has given the All-Pro problems recently.
Over his last five divisional games, Mahomes has totaled just six touchdown passes and an 87.2 passer rating, essentially the definition of ordinary. Before last week, that would be the perfect description of his 2024 season, but we saw him thrive when targeting DeAndre Hopkins against the Bucs in prime time and immediately got sucked back in.
I’m not ready to put him back among the elite at the position (Week 9: QB3, his first top-10 of the season), but I am willing to admit that the presence of an alpha receiver was a sight for sore eyes. You’re going to have a hard time turning anything close to a profit for what you paid for Mahomes this summer, but I have him valued as a starting option the rest of the way, not something I was saying with confidence seven short days ago.
Kareem Hunt, RB
The Kareem Hunt situation is a good example of listening to what the team is telling us. The veteran back was limited in practice ahead of Week 9, and yet, the Chiefs loaded him up with 27 carries in the overtime win over the Bucs.
What are they telling us? Well, it’s that they are willing to ride Hunt into the ground to earn wins now while they build out their optimal postseason roster.
Over the past month, Kansas City’s RB1 is on a 413-carry pace. This is a team that is racking up wins, and I think they understand that their current and future offense aren’t the same. So what’s the harm in burning out Hunt now?
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport broke news ahead of Week 9 that Isiah Pacheco (broken fibula) hopes to return late in November, a timeline that makes sense for a team that will want to ramp him up in their pursuit of a historic three-peat.
- Week 10 (Nov. 10) vs. Denver Broncos
- Week 11 (Nov. 17) at Buffalo Bills
- Week 12 (Nov. 24) at Carolina Panthers
- Week 13 (Nov. 29) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The next two weeks might not be perfect, but there is still plenty of value in Hunt in the short term. I’m operating under the assumption that Pacheco’s return to action and his return to the 20.5 touches he averaged through two weeks are not the same thing, giving me confidence that Hunt, at the very least, can be penciled into fantasy lineups through Week 13.
Be aware: Week 14, for some reason, is a massive week for byes (Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders). If you’re dealing with a thin running back room, and most of us are, you need to be prepared for Hunt’s profile to carry more risk than reward at the moment in time.
Hunt is a locked-in fantasy asset until Pacheco returns — I expect this high-volume role to stick until then.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Well, Monday night will serve as a moment in time that we come back to if the Chiefs go on to complete their three-peat. Patrick Mahomes said pregame that he wanted to let DeAndre Hopkins do what DeAndre Hopkins does, and he lived up to those words.
After peppering the veteran with looks early in the game, the valuable targets began to come. Down the middle in triple coverage? Check. Designed plays inside the 10-yard line? Check.
Mahomes’ 5.9-yard aDOT is the continuation of a downward trend in terms of his downfield aggression. If that continues, weeks like last for Hopkins (8-86-2) aren’t going to be the norm. But if the future Hall of Famer unlocks a different version of Mahomes, there’s a world in which Nuk is a top-15 producer at the position the rest of the way.
Hopkins is my WR17 this week, and if we get a second straight high-usage role, this will be as low as I have him ranked moving forward.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
JuJu Smith-Schuster has missed consecutive games with a hamstring injury, and the role that he opened October with (seven catches for 130 yards as the primary slot receiver against the Saints in Week 5) is unlikely to be waiting for him when he returns.
The Broncos’ defense checks in as elite in a handful of metrics. I’m not sure a fully healthy Smith-Schuster has a fantasy-relevant role in this offense, and I’m even less sure that the 27-year-old is anywhere close to a full-go.
If your waiver is bereft of talent, staying with Smith-Schuster for the short term is an acceptable decision, as you want visual proof that he has been written out of this offense. Yet, if you don’t have that luxury, moving on for immediate help is also reasonable.
Xavier Worthy, WR
The life of trusting a receiver with a limited skill set can be a stressful one. Put that profile on a rookie and you’re asking for headaches.
With increased awareness, Xavier Worthy would have turned a deep target into 10.3 points in the first quarter of Monday Night Football last week and we are off to the races. Instead, he loses track of the boundary and steps out of bounds before completing the catch, let alone extending the extra foot for the touchdown. A single mistake like that doesn’t submarine the value of a grizzled veteran or a player with a more consistent role, but that’s not the case for a player like this.
Worthy saw only one more target the rest of the game and turned two rushes into negative 10 yards as they tried to get creative with how to best get him involved. His route participation ticked up, a good sign for those still holding out hope that he can stumble upon a spike game with defenses flocking toward DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce. But we’ve yet to see him earn targets with any consistency, and that doesn’t project as likely to change with Patrick Mahomes’ aDOT again on a career-low trajectory.
Keep Worthy rostered in the event that you’re desperate for a single big play, but he can’t be near starting lineups in any other situation.
Travis Kelce, TE
Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving yards in both games against the Broncos last season, accounting for one-third of their receiving yards in those games. With this offense looking the way it does, Kelce is as important for this team moving the chains, and while the Broncos are the seventh-best defense against the slot this season, the veteran tight end should be plenty busy as Patrick Mahomes stays away from Pat Surtain II.
I understand if you want to fade a 35-year-old tight end on a short work week in the middle of a season playing for a team with its eyes set on January rather than Week 10 in DFS, but you’re not getting cute in season-long formats.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: No team has more time to pass, on average, than the Broncos this season (3.26 seconds, 14% longer than the league average).
QB: Bo Nix and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs in the league this season, with four games featuring 30 passes and 35 rushing yards.
Offense: The Broncos are one of five teams yet to connect on a 50-yard play this season (the others are the Browns, Titans, Giants, and Panthers).
Defense: The Broncos force a three-and-out on 37.9% of drives, the seventh-highest mark in the NFL this season.
Fantasy: The development of a rookie quarterback can serve as a rising tide – Courtland Sutton has posted two of his top-10 yards per route marks of his career over the past two weeks.
Betting: The Broncos are just 3-7 ATS (30%) in their past 10 road games within the division. On the bright side, their last game in Kansas City was one of those three covers (27-24 loss as a 12.5-point underdog).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Since Andy Reid became their head coach in 2013, the Chiefs are 12-3 against rookie starting QBs. However, they lost their last game vs. Aidan O’Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023.
QB: Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low 7.0 yards per pass last season – he’s failed to reach that number in three straight games.
Offense: Since 2020, the Chiefs are 14-8 (63.6%) when trailing entering the fourth quarter – the Steelers rank second in win percentage in such spots over that stretch at 34.1%.
Defense: In Week 7, Jordan Mason had a 26-yard rush against the Chiefs. They haven’t allowed a player to rush for more than 24 yards in a game since.
Fantasy: Patrick Mahomes hinted pregame that DeAndre Hopkins was going to be used more with time, and it didn’t take long – the former Titan accounted for one-third of his completions in the first half, tallying 66 yards and a touchdown in the process.
Betting: The Chiefs have covered three straight divisional games when playing on short rest (three of their past four such games have finished under the total).