The New England Patriots and Drake Maye hit the road to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (-6, 38.5), who have dropped two straight.
Below are our final picks for the game, which include contributions from Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Analyst Kyle Soppe, and/or Analyst Jason Katz.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Rome Odunze 40+ Receiving Yards
(Jason Katz) We often see rookie WRs really turn it on over the second half of the season. Of course, Odunze’s chances of taking a step forward hinge considerably on Caleb Williams doing the same. The rookie QB has looked nothing like a No. 1 overall player so far.
With that said, there’s reason for optimism this week regardless. For starters, Odunze has hit 40 receiving yards in four straight games. Over his last two, he’s seen six and seven targets. The increase in usage came after the bye, which is not uncommon for rookie WR progression.
Furthermore, the Bears get a Patriots pass defense allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game.
Averaging 15.64 yards per reception, Odunze doesn’t need a ton of volume to hit this number. If ends up seeing volume, though, this will hit in the first half.
Pick: Under 39
(David Bearman) Fading the Patriots’ offense has been a profitable strategy, no matter the QB. The Patriots average 15.7 points per game, are 30th in the NFL and are only ahead of the Dolphins and Giants. Their total yards, at 264.8 a game, is dead last, and their pass offense is also dead last in the league. Our PFN’s Offensive + metric ranks New England 31st, just ahead of the Browns.
As for Chicago, it’s been an up-and-down year on the offensive side of the ball, coming in ranked 26th in Offense + and 29th in passing. Caleb Williams has shown some bright spots but has also shown he’s a rookie QB. After what you’d call an offensive explosive in Weeks 4-6, where the Bears averaged 31.6 points per game, they are back to the Bears of the first few weeks, totaling 24 points against two bottom defenses in the Commanders and Cardinals.
Outside of the three-game stretch, Williams and the Bears have scored more than 16 points once. This should be a field possession game with few points.
Pick: Over 39
(Kyle Soppe) Let’s get this out of the way – Bearman isn’t wrong. Our metrics hate both of these offenses because they lack consistency, and I think that’s the right approach over the course of a season, but I’m willing to sidestep that in a game that I believe features more big plays than the public seems to.
The average NFL offense produces 12.4 plays of 10-plus yards per game, and, to the surprise of no one, both of these teams, on average, check in under 11. But – both have cleared that number on three occasions this season, with their rookie signal caller showing signs of the pedigree they were drafted for.
The Bears rank 11th in pressure rate this season (eighth best over the past four weeks), and that’s nice to see, but Drake Maye isn’t like most rookies. We can argue about his ability to evaluate defenses all day, but over the past three games, he’s completed 15-of-25 passes when pressured (60%).
That’s a small sample, of course, but I’m impressed when you consider that the league average hovers around 49% and dips down to 45% for rookies).
Drake Maye scrambled for 11.82 seconds before finding Rhamondre Stevenson in the end zone for a 5-yard, game-tying touchdown, the 2nd-longest time to throw on a TD pass in the NGS era (since 2016), trailing only Jayden Daniels' Hail Mary from one week ago.
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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 3, 2024
On the other side, Caleb Williams has completed over 74% of his passes on non-pressured passes four times this season, flashing the processing power that his scouting report suggested was a major strength. The Pats rank 28th in pressure rate this season despite an above-average blitz rate – this is a good spot for the rookie to show the home crowd what they have for the next decade.
Overs are 22-8-1 in the last 31 instances in which a rookie was favored by at least six points.
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Patriots vs. Bears Game Stats and Insights
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots are averaging 264.8 yards of offense per game, the lowest mark in the NFL this season and the sixth-worst through nine weeks over the past decade (every team in the AFC East has a season represented in that bottom-6).
QB: Players in the 2000s with multiple efforts of 30 passes, 200 pass yards, and 35 rushing yards within their first five career games: Maye (2024), Gardner Minshew (2019), and Robert Griffin III (2012).
Offense: The Patriots allow pressure without being blitzed on 37.8% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.
Defense: The Patriots average just 1.78 sacks per game, ranking them 29th in the NFL (the Bears rank ninth: 2.88 per game).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson has scored four times over the past two weeks despite none of his 30 carries gaining more than seven yards over that stretch.
Betting: Since 2009, the Patriots are just 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%) when traveling to face a rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears
Team: Chicago is 3-0 at home (wins over the Titans, Rams, and Panthers), 1-0 in neutral spots (Jaguars in London), and 0-4 on the road (Texans, Colts, Commanders, and Cardinals).
QB: Two steps forward, two steps back. After Caleb Williams completed 6-of-7 deep passes in Weeks 5-6, he is just 2-of-16 when stretching the field in his two games since (15+ air yards).
Offense: The Bears have reached the red zone on just 22.5% of their drives this season, ranking them 28th in the league.
Defense: The Bears have the third-best red-zone defense in the NFL (40.9% touchdown rate, tops in the NFC).
Fantasy: D’Andre Swift has at least four catches or a 35+ yard gain in five straight games.
Betting: The Bears have covered seven straight home games (overs have cashed in five of their past six at home).