Not many had the Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-3, 45.5) matchup in Week 10, with a combined 13 wins. Both attempt to keep their division leads in this matchup.
Below are my final picks for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Jayden Daniels Under 223.5 Passing Yards (Take Down to 218.5)
Once. Once this season, the Steelers’ defense was left out to dry. In the Week 5 loss against the Cowboys, they were on the field for 75 snaps, and Dak Prescott had success against them over time. In their other seven games this season, they’ve been reasonably rested (56.7 plays per game) and have yet to allow a QB to clear 7.1 yards per pass in those contests.
When removing the game he left with an injury, Daniels is averaging just 28.3 pass attempts per game. Simple math would put us at a 201-yard projection if you assume he hits that 7.1 threshold.
With the Steelers ranking as the eighth-slowest offense and sixth in average time of possession, might he struggle to reach that average attempt total?
With the Steelers ranking top-4 in both deep interception percentage and passer rating, might he struggle to reach that average per pass number?
In betting passing unders, I want to avoid a game script issue, and while I think the Steelers could win this game, I’d be surprised if a team that has failed to clear 20 points in half of their games puts the Commanders behind the eight-ball in terms of offensive play-calling.
Pick: Under 45.5
This is an interesting spot, as we get the team no one ever wants to bet an ‘over’ with against the team no one ever wants to bet an ‘under’ with. In theory, that would mean you stay away from this total, but I’m nothing if not a man of danger, so let’s dive in.
I’m not suggesting that the league is catching up to Daniels, but they rank 12th over the past two weeks in points scored per drive, which is inflated due to the Week 8 Hail Mary (they’d rank 18th if that drive didn’t occur).
As their offense begins to regress a bit, their defense has been picking up the slack, and while it has come against inferior competition, I’d argue that the dink-and-dunk Steelers aren’t exactly a juggernaut.
And yeah, I said “dink-and-dunk.”
I’m aware of Russell Wilson’s “moon balls,” and those make for great highlights when converted, but did you know that the majority of his passes this season haven’t traveled more than five yards in the air past the line of scrimmage?
Ultimately, I think this total comes down to the ability to skirt field goals for touchdowns, and I’ll bet against that in every Steeler game. Pittsburgh is not only the best red zone defense in the league; they are the third worst on the offensive end – five field goals aren’t going to hurt me here if Washington’s upward-trending defense can continue to show signs of development.
Under tickets have come through in eight of Pittsburgh’s past ten road games, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw that run extended in a game that might not offer up many chunk plays.
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Steelers vs. Commanders Game Stats and Insights
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: After this game, Pittsburgh has four straight games against divisional opponents, including both Cleveland games.
QB: Russell Wilson has thrown for 542 yards and three touchdowns in his two starts this season — no player had that stat line through two weeks this season.
Russell Wilson drops it in a 🪣 for Calvin Austin III's second TD of the night!
📺: #NYGvsPIT on ESPN/ABC/ESPN2
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus and ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/KWAglgI9WV— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2024
Offense: The Steelers averaged 2.55 points per drive in Weeks 7-8 under Russell Wilson, the seventh-best rate in the NFL over that stretch and a 29.4% improvement over Pittsburgh’s rate through the first six weeks.
Defense: Pittsburgh went into their bye with the utmost confidence in their defense. After creating pressure on just 18.5% of opponent dropbacks in Weeks 6-7, they sped up the Giants 53.5% of the time in Week 8.
SACK, FORCED FUMBLE, AND FUMBLE RECOVERY 💪 @_TJWatt
📲 Stream on NFL+: https://t.co/COxKRnr6Mc pic.twitter.com/wKfKVUB1wM
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 29, 2024
Fantasy: Joe Mixon, Bijan Robinson, and Najee Harris were the only running backs to post top-17 numbers at the position in Weeks 6-8.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in eight of Pittsburgh’s past 10 road games, and they’ve covered 12 of their past 16 away from home.
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders are seeking to start 5-0 at home for the first time since 1991. That was the season of their last Super Bowl title.
QB: Behind Jayden Daniels, this offense is turning the ball over a league-low 0.33 times per game. That’s the lowest average through nine weeks this millennium (second place: 2020 Packers, 0.38).
Offense: The Commanders reach the red zone on 48.8% of their drives, the only offense in the league with a rate of even 43%.
Defense: The Commanders own the sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL (9.1%).
Fantasy: There are two receivers to score 15+ PPR points in four straight games this season, both of which are active streaks. The names? Justin Jefferson and Terry McLaurin.
Betting: The Commanders are 4-0 ATS at home this season, covering the spread by an average of 11 points per game.