The Buffalo Bills (-4. 48) will travel to take on the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10.
Below are our final picks for the game, which include contributions from Chief Content Officer David Bearman, Analyst Kyle Soppe, and/or Analyst Jason Katz.
Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: Joe Flacco Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards
(Katz) Flacco has this reputation as a gunslinger. It largely stems from his stint as the Browns starter last season, when he helped lead the team to the postseason. Over his five starts, he just chucked it with reckless abandon, completing a total of 10 passes over 35 yards.
This year, Flacco has not looked the same. His performance last week against the Vikings was one of the worst showings I’ve ever seen in 25+ years watching football. And he hasn’t really been the same downfield passer.
Flacco has completed a mere two passes longer than 27 yards. Both of them went to Alec Pierce and both came in the same game, against a Jaguars defense that allows the second-highest deep ball completion percentage in the league.
All season, I’ve been taking quarterbacks longest completion under against the Bills. That’s because the Bills and their two-high look have made it their mission to not get beat over the top.
Teams have attempted a deep pass against the Bills at the seventh-lowest rate in the league, and completed those passes at the 11th-lowest rate.
I’d be hesitant to fade top quarterbacks against the Bills. But Flacco? He doesn’t stand a chance. I don’t expect the line to move, but I would play this down to -125.
Pick: Bills -4
(Soppe) The Colts sat Anthony Richardson down, in theory, to have him watch what a pro running an offense looks like – I can’t be alone in thinking that Richardson would have been best served to not pay attention to Flacco and company last week (4.6 yards per play, three-of-11 on third down, and seven penalties) against the Vikings.
I fear we see more of the same in this spot against a Bills defense that is top-10 in red zone efficiency, rush EPA, and yards per pass attempt. You have to put points on the board to win (or cover) against the offense that frequents the red zone at the second highest rate in the NFL (42.9%, league average: 29.8%) and I’m not sold that the Colts are capable of doing that.
Josh Allen is 6-3 ATS over his past nine as a road favorite and with this Buffalo team looking to hit its stride during the second half of the season, I think he runs that mark up to 7-3 in his past 10.
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Bills vs. Colts Game Stats and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: Buffalo is seeking a fifth straight win — it hasn’t had a five-game win streak in the first 10 weeks of a season during the 2000s.
QB: In eight games this season, Allen has been held without a deep touchdown pass seven times (on Sunday against the Miami Dolphins, he attempted just three deep passes; in the five previous games: 8.6 deep pass attempts per game).
Offense: The Bills are turning the ball over just 0.44 times per game, the second-fewest in the NFL and down from 1.65 times per game a season ago.
Defense: Dink and Dunk — opponents have averaged a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw against Buffalo this season.
Fantasy: James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards — he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in five of Buffalo’s past six road games, but don’t mistake that for sportsbooks struggling to handicap this team — all of those games finished within three points of the closing total.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Indianapolis’ offense has only been on the field for 25 minutes and 41 seconds per game this season, which is 100 fewer seconds per game than any other offense in the league.
QB: Over the past four weeks, Flacco and Richardson have made two starts apiece.
- Flacco: 5.7 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
- Richardson: 5.4 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
Offense: The Colts rank 30th in offensive success rate (ahead of only the Los Angeles Chargers and Browns).
Defense: After a brutal start to the season, the Colts own the second-best rush defense by EPA (first: Chargers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs has a 36.5% on-field target share from Flacco this season (Michael Pittman Jr.: 19%; Pierce: 10.3%).
Betting: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season (they haven’t had a winning ATS season in front of their home fans since 2017).