Week 10 of the NFL season brings with it some very interesting NFL betting lines and totals. We have the trends you need to know before locking in your wagers.
With nine weeks of data, could Week 10 be our most profitable yet? Sportsbooks have installed plenty of road favorites and big spreads — this is a unique betting board, and I’m here to walk you through the NFL picks for every game.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
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Week 10 NFL Picks Overview
Below is an overview of our Week 10 NFL picks. For analysis on all of these, continue to scroll down for each game.
Kyle Soppe’s Picks
- Giants/Panthers under 41.5
- Bills -4
- Patriots/Bears over 39
- Broncos +7.5
- Vikings/Jaguars under 44
- Justin Jefferson longest reception under 27.5 yards
- Falcons -3.5
- No turnovers committed (+1000 at DraftKings)
- 49ers -5
- Steelers/Commanders under 45.5
- Jayden Daniels under 223.5 passing yards (take down to 218.5)
- Titans/Chargers under 38
- Jets/Cardinals over 46
- Cowboys +7
- Lions ML, Lions -3.5
- Dolphins/Rams under 50
David Bearman’s Picks
- Panthers +5.5
- Titans/Chargers under 39
- Patriots/Bears under 39
- Cardinals +1.5 (or moneyline)
Jason Katz’s Picks
- Joe Flacco longest completion under 34.5 yards
- Chuba Hubbard over 14.5 rush attempts
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. longest rush over 14.5 yards
- Rome Odunze 40+ receiving yards
- James Conner anytime TD
- Cooper Rush under 21.5 completions
- Sam LaPorta under 3.5 receptions
- Matthew Stafford under 262.5 passing yards
- Tank Bigsby under 49.5 rushing yards
New York Giants (-6.5, 40.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Longest Run Over 14.5 Yards
(Katz) I waited on this one all week to see if we’d get a better line. It briefly moved to 15.5. Once it went back down to 14.5, I had to pounce.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been the Giants lead RB since Week 5. Over that span, he’s had two massive games, torching the Seahawks and Steelers, to go along with three middling outings against the Bengals, Eagles, and Commanders.
What we’ve seen from Tracy is the ability to splash very hard in the right spots. I believe this to be the ideal spot.
Tracy has five runs of 15+ yards on the season. All of them came in his two big games against the Seahawks and Steelers. What that tells me is we need to correctly predict the team he is going to torch.
Well, the Panthers are coming off a big home upset win over the Saints and primed for a letdown. They allow the most rushing yards per game in the league.
With the Giants touchdown favorites, game script should not get away from them. They are committed to Tracy as their lead back. He should have plenty of opportunities to bust one against this soft run defense.
Pick: Chuba Hubbard Over 14.5 Rush Attempts
(Katz) In Week 3, the Panthers committed to Hubbard as their RB1. Since then, he’s seen 15+ carries in all but one game, a 36-10 loss to the Bears.
Ironically, the main reason Hubbard didn’t get there is because he was too efficient, averaging 7.46 yards per carry, his highest single game average of the season.
Even in losses, Hubbard gets to 15 carries. The Panthers lost by three scores to the Falcons, five scores to the Commanders, and two scores to the Broncos. Hubbard got there all three times.
The Panthers activated rookie Jonathon Brooks ahead of this week’s game. I believe that’s why Hubbard’s projected rush attempts line is this low. I think it would be 16.5 or 17.5 otherwise.
I’m not entirely sure Brooks even plays. And if he does, Brooks is still only likely seeing a couple of carries, at most. Expect Carolina to continue to lean on the back they just gave a four-year $8.3 million a year extension to. I would prefer not to play this at 15.5 as Hubbard has landed on exactly 15 carries twice, but would still do it. It would not be a play at 16.5.
Pick: Panthers +5.5
(Bearman) I am going to come out firing in the Germany game, featuring two of the worst teams in the NFL. No part of me woke up and said “I can’t wait to bet the Panthers”, but I also can’t believe the 2-7 Giants are a 5.5 point favorite over anyone. The G-Men, since their seemingly improbable upset of the Seahawks in Week 5, have lost four straight and have been outscored 98-50 in doing so. This is not a good football team and Daniel Jones isn’t getting any better.
The Panthers aren’t good either, but at least have played decent of late, upsetting the Saints despite being outgained by 180 yards last week. I also was looking at the under in this one with two bad teams, but the defenses haven’t been great either. I expect a low scoring game overseas, as most of them are, and will gladly take the 5.5 points in what is likely a 14-10 game.
Pick: Under 40.5
(Soppe) Another week, another pawning off of sub-par football to a different country. I think you’re probably well aware of what the offenses bring (more accurately, don’t bring) to the table, but if you need a little refresher – both rank outside of the top-20 in percentage of drives that reach the red one and outside the top-25 when it comes to yards per play.
I’m not here to claim that we have a couple of elite defenses on the field, but since Week 5, both are above league average in preventing touchdowns when the opposition crosses the 20. If the limited scoring chances result in three and not seven points, we are in business.
Under tickets have cashed in seven of the past nine games abroad that featured a total north of 40, a box the opening line for this game checked.
Buffalo Bills (-4. 48) at Indianapolis Colts
Pick: Joe Flacco Longest Completion Under 34.5 Yards
(Katz) Flacco has this reputation as a gunslinger. It largely stems from his stint as the Browns starter last season, when he helped lead the team to the postseason. Over his five starts, he just chucked it with reckless abandon, completing a total of 10 passes over 35 yards.
This year, Flacco has not looked the same. His performance last week against the Vikings was one of the worst showings I’ve ever seen in 25+ years watching football. And he hasn’t really been the same downfield passer.
Flacco has completed a mere two passes longer than 27 yards. Both of them went to Alec Pierce and both came in the same game, against a Jaguars defense that allows the second-highest deep ball completion percentage in the league.
All season, I’ve been taking quarterbacks longest completion under against the Bills. That’s because the Bills and their two-high look have made it their mission to not get beat over the top.
Teams have attempted a deep pass against the Bills at the seventh-lowest rate in the league, and completed those passes at the 11th-lowest rate.
I’d be hesitant to fade top quarterbacks against the Bills. But Flacco? He doesn’t stand a chance. I don’t expect the line to move, but I would play this down to -125.
Pick: Bills -4
(Soppe) The Colts sat Anthony Richardson down, in theory, to have him watch what a pro running an offense looks like – I can’t be alone in thinking that Richardson would have been best served to not pay attention to Flacco and company last week (4.6 yards per play, three-of-11 on third down, and seven penalties) against the Vikings.
I fear we see more of the same in this spot against a Bills defense that is top-10 in red zone efficiency, rush EPA, and yards per pass attempt. You have to put points on the board to win (or cover) against the offense that frequents the red zone at the second highest rate in the NFL (42.9%, league average: 29.8%) and I’m not sold that the Colts are capable of doing that.
Josh Allen is 6-3 ATS over his past nine as a road favorite and with this Buffalo team looking to hit its stride during the second half of the season, I think he runs that mark up to 7-3 in his past 10.
Minnesota Vikings (-7, 44) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Justin Jefferson Longest Reception Under 27.5 Yards
(Soppe) Get ready to be uncomfortable.
Jefferson is among the best receivers in the game and the Jaguars are a mess that has lost seven of nine games (34-plus points allowed in four of their past five games). Those are facts.
It’s also a fact that the NFL average pass rate is 50.2% this season for teams when leading (Minnesota is -325 on the moneyline) compared to 65.6% when trailing. This is also a fact for Jefferson in this Sam Darnold era:
Percentage of catches gaining 28+ yards
- 2020: 12.5%
- 2021: 11.1%
- 2022: 12.5%
- 2023: 16.2%
- 2024: 8.3%
He has 54 such catches for his career and 50 (92.6%) of them have come courtesy of a pass that traveled 15-plus yards in the air. The Jaguars aren’t often attacked deep down field (ninth lowest opponent aDOT, 6.5% below league average) because there’s no need to absorb that risk. On balls thrown less than 10 yards down field this season, Jacksonville ranks …
- 24th in touchdown rate
- 29th in interception rate
- 29th in completion percentage
- 29th in passer rating
Jefferson has the potential to dominate this game and not cash his over longest reception prop. He also has the potential to not be used at his average rate if this game ends up one-sided (the spread jumped 2.5 points once Trevor Lawrence was ruled out).
Pick: Under 44
(Soppe) It’s no secret what the Vikings want to do the same way that we are all aware that Steph Curry wants to launch a three-pointer – you just have to stop it.
Easier said than done.
The Vikings continue to be as aggressive as anyone in terms of exotic defensive formations and bringing extra bodies, something that should create issues for the Jags in the few possessions they get in this spot (MIN: fourth slowest offense).
Through nine weeks, Lawrence is pacing for a career low in yards per completion when pressured and a career low touchdown rate when blitzed. Not ideal. With Christian Kirk (shoulder) done for the season and Brian Thomas Jr. (chest) operating at less than full capacity, what confidence do we have that Jacksonville is going to be able to sustain drives, let alone finish them off?
Sam Darnold has been great this season, but he does have seven interceptions this season and if we are counting on Minnesota to dictate tempo and control the ball, it may only take one extended drive that ends prematurely due to a bad decision to put us on the right side of this total.
Unders are 12-4 in Lawrence’s career as a home dog and I’m not sure we see the type of splash plays in this game to change that.
Pick: Take Down to 45.5
(Katz) I wanted to go with rush + receiving here, but we don’t have a line, and I am afraid if we wait, this line will drop.
Bigsby remains the clear lead runner for the Jaguars. However, there are so many things working against him, especially this week.
First, Travis Etienne Jr. returned last week. Bigsby went from 26 and 18 carries in the previous two weeks to just eight. It would not surprise me to see Etienne, who carried the ball three times last week, at least see a couple more on the ground, which would come at Bigsby’s expense.
Second, this offense as a whole could struggle to sustain drives. Mac Jones is set to start in place of an injured Lawrence. While Lawrence isn’t anything more than a low-end NFL starter, he’s still a starter. Jones is not. If the game script gets away from the Jaguars, we could see more Etienne and D’Ernest Johnson. And even if Bigsby is out there, the Jaguars may be throwing a lot more than they want to.
Third, the Vikings are stout against the run. They’re allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Their 3.8 yards per carry allowed is the third-lowest in the league.
Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 46) at New Orleans Saints
Pick: No Turnovers Committed (+1000 at DraftKings)
(Soppe) We generally offer our leans on bets that are in the neighborhood of coin flips in this space, and I think that’s the best way to approach betting on a full slate. That said, I always have a few long shots on my card as a fail-safe — I don’t bet enough on these bets to dent my bankroll, but as I come across options like this, I bet a fractional unit on it, understanding that there is researched upside for it to cover a handful of bets should it come through.
Keep reading, and you’ll see that I expect this to be a one-sided game. Part of that is the injuries on the New Orleans side.
Saint aDOT leaders this season
- Rashid Shaheed: 17.6 yards
- Mason Tipton: 12.9 yards
- Bub Means: 11.3 yards
- Chris Olave: 10.3 yards
Three of those players aren’t going to be active this week, and the other saw 77.8% of his targets come less than 10 yards downfield earlier this season in his only career game as a featured target.
Since the start of 2023, Derek Carr’s interception rate on balls thrown deep down field is 4.7%, but I’m projecting a more conservative script based on the tools available to him and that makes me more interested in his 0.9% interception rate on all other passes.
On the other hand, we have Kirk Cousins and a fully healthy group of pass catchers at his disposal. This season, his interception rate is essentially chopped in half when his team is leading (1.4%) from when that is not the case (2.7%). Atlanta ranks 22nd in pass rate over expectation this season, a trend that points at potentially a low volume/conservative game plan for this game.
Interceptions, of course, are not the only way to turn the ball over, but it is the primary source of giveaways. There are seven teams who, through nine weeks, have yet to lose a fumble, and these are two of them.
Both Atlanta and New Orleans rank below average in pressure rate, which leads me to believe that both teams won’t be forced to operate in a compromised position, thus allowing them to avoid dangerous situations.
This line for this exact bet is pretty consistent across all games on the slate, making me think that the sportsbooks simply post odds for this exotic option without much thought—I’m OK with that!
Pick: Falcons -3.5
(Soppe) Maybe it’s noise, maybe it’s not, but it’s a trend I believe in for this specific spot, so I’m going to share – do with it what you will:
Divisional Home Underdogs, Cover Rates
- 2023-24: 37.5%
- 2020-22: 55.9%
Divisional games are typically handicapped as closer games, the thought being that these teams are uniquely familiar with one another, and that should result in a competitive game (the old “you can throw the records out when” narrative that we hear far too often). But, recently, the gap between the haves and have-nots has expanded, so when sportsbooks label a team in such a spot as a home underdog, you’re wise to pay attention.
My working theory is that, as usual, the public is behind the books. That casual bettors get a home underdog in a divisional game and blindly take them because they assume it’ll be a one-score game in the final five minutes, and they want the security of having the points.
ELITE route runner.
4th down TD. pic.twitter.com/v1oTMwmrcJ
— BroTalk (6-4) (@BKsquared7) October 7, 2024
The Saints are a dumpster fire right now, losers of seven straight and fresh off of firing their head coach, while the Falcons, since Week 4, rank eighth best in offensive success rate, seventh in third down conversion percentage, sixth in yards per play, and fifth in points per drive.
Atlanta was lucky to win the first meeting with New Orleans this season (58-yard FG with two seconds left), but that was an eternity ago in football years.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-3, 45.5)
Pick: Jayden Daniels Under 223.5 Passing Yards (Take Down to 218.5)
(Soppe) Once. Once this season, the Steelers’ defense was left out to dry. In the Week 5 loss against the Cowboys, they were on the field for 75 snaps, and Dak Prescott had success against them over time. In their other seven games this season, they’ve been reasonably rested (56.7 plays per game) and have yet to allow a QB to clear 7.1 yards per pass in those contests.
When removing the game he left with an injury, Daniels is averaging just 28.3 pass attempts per game. Simple math would put us at a 201-yard projection if you assume he hits that 7.1 threshold.
With the Steelers ranking as the eighth-slowest offense and sixth in average time of possession, might he struggle to reach that average attempt total?
With the Steelers ranking top-4 in both deep interception percentage and passer rating, might he struggle to reach that average per pass number?
In betting passing unders, I want to avoid a game script issue, and while I think the Steelers could win this game, I’d be surprised if a team that has failed to clear 20 points in half of their games puts the Commanders behind the eight-ball in terms of offensive play-calling.
Pick: Under 45.5
(Soppe) This is an interesting spot, as we get the team no one ever wants to bet an ‘over’ with against the team no one ever wants to bet an ‘under’ with. In theory, that would mean you stay away from this total, but I’m nothing if not a man of danger, so let’s dive in.
I’m not suggesting that the league is catching up to Daniels, but they rank 12th over the past two weeks in points scored per drive, which is inflated due to the Week 8 Hail Mary (they’d rank 18th if that drive didn’t occur).
As their offense begins to regress a bit, their defense has been picking up the slack, and while it has come against inferior competition, I’d argue that the dink-and-dunk Steelers aren’t exactly a juggernaut.
And yeah, I said “dink-and-dunk.”
I’m aware of Russell Wilson’s “moon balls,” and those make for great highlights when converted, but did you know that the majority of his passes this season haven’t traveled more than five yards in the air past the line of scrimmage?
Ultimately, I think this total comes down to the ability to skirt field goals for touchdowns, and I’ll bet against that in every Steeler game. Pittsburgh is not only the best red zone defense in the league; they are the third worst on the offensive end – five field goals aren’t going to hurt me here if Washington’s upward-trending defense can continue to show signs of development.
Under tickets have come through in eight of Pittsburgh’s past ten road games, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw that run extended in a game that might not offer up many chunk plays.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6, 38.5)
Pick: Rome Odunze 40+ Receiving Yards
(Katz) We often see rookie WRs really turn it on over the second half of the season. Of course, Odunze’s chances of taking a step forward hinge considerably on Caleb Williams doing the same. The rookie QB has looked nothing like a No. 1 overall player so far.
With that said, there’s reason for optimism this week regardless. For starters, Odunze has hit 40 receiving yards in four straight games. Over his last two, he’s seen six and seven targets. The increase in usage came after the bye, which is not uncommon for rookie WR progression.
Furthermore, the Bears get a Patriots pass defense allowing the 11th-most passing yards per game.
Averaging 15.64 yards per reception, Odunze doesn’t need a ton of volume to hit this number. If ends up seeing volume, though, this will hit in the first half.
Pick: Under 39
(Bearman) Fading the Patriots’ offense has been a profitable strategy, no matter the QB. The Patriots average 15.7 points per game, are 30th in the NFL and are only ahead of the Dolphins and Giants. Their total yards, at 264.8 a game, is dead last, and their pass offense is also dead last in the league. Our PFN’s Offensive + metric ranks New England 31st, just ahead of the Browns.
As for Chicago, it’s been an up-and-down year on the offensive side of the ball, coming in ranked 26th in Offense + and 29th in passing. Caleb Williams has shown some bright spots but has also shown he’s a rookie QB. After what you’d call an offensive explosive in Weeks 4-6, where the Bears averaged 31.6 points per game, they are back to the Bears of the first few weeks, totaling 24 points against two bottom defenses in the Commanders and Cardinals.
Outside of the three-game stretch, Williams and the Bears have scored more than 16 points once. This should be a field possession game with few points.
Pick: Over 39
(Soppe) Let’s get this out of the way – Bearman isn’t wrong. Our metrics hate both of these offenses because they lack consistency, and I think that’s the right approach over the course of a season, but I’m willing to sidestep that in a game that I believe features more big plays than the public seems to.
The average NFL offense produces 12.4 plays of 10-plus yards per game, and, to the surprise of no one, both of these teams, on average, check in under 11. But – both have cleared that number on three occasions this season, with their rookie signal caller showing signs of the pedigree they were drafted for.
The Bears rank 11th in pressure rate this season (eighth best over the past four weeks), and that’s nice to see, but Drake Maye isn’t like most rookies. We can argue about his ability to evaluate defenses all day, but over the past three games, he’s completed 15-of-25 passes when pressured (60%).
That’s a small sample, of course, but I’m impressed when you consider that the league average hovers around 49% and dips down to 45% for rookies).
Drake Maye scrambled for 11.82 seconds before finding Rhamondre Stevenson in the end zone for a 5-yard, game-tying touchdown, the 2nd-longest time to throw on a TD pass in the NGS era (since 2016), trailing only Jayden Daniels' Hail Mary from one week ago.
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— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 3, 2024
On the other side, Caleb Williams has completed over 74% of his passes on non-pressured passes four times this season, flashing the processing power that his scouting report suggested was a major strength. The Pats rank 28th in pressure rate this season despite an above-average blitz rate – this is a good spot for the rookie to show the home crowd what they have for the next decade.
Overs are 22-8-1 in the last 31 instances in which a rookie was favored by at least six points.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 42)
Pick: Broncos +7.5
(Soppe) I know, I know. We just saw the Broncos’ feel-good story crash and burn on the road against a Super Bowl contender last weekend by way of a 41-10 loss to the Ravens in a game that might not have been even that close.
Rinse it off.
Asking the Chiefs to win by a margin is a lot, especially with this number pushing past a key number due to what Denver put on tape last week. Kansas City currently has its highest turnover rate (14.8% of possessions) and three-and-out rate (30.9%) during the Patrick Mahomes era, concerning trends to take into a game that, even with the poor Week 9, features the second-best yards per play defense (fourth-best in EPA) in the NFL.
The Chiefs are coming off their lowest pressure rate of the season, and if that proves sticky, I like our chances of getting the best version of Bo Nix.
- Weeks 1-4: 75.2 non-pressured passer rating
- Weeks 5-8: 110.3 non-pressured passer rating
Yes, I left out the Week 9 stinker from that sample, and if you want to buy into his struggles, go ahead. However, I do think we are seeing a little bit of an overreaction in terms of the spread. Last week was Denver’s first loss of the season by more than seven points, and I think they can keep this thing closer than the experts expect.
Mahomes is 1-4-2 ATS in his past seven when favored by more than six points.
San Francisco 49ers (-6, 50.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: 49ers -6
(Soppe) The 49ers entered this week with +130 odds to win the division, a ticket that I’m now holding due to my optimism that they will find their stride coming out of their bye (six straight wins following the off-week last season).
San Francisco has covered six of their past eight as a road favorite (hat-tip to the Week 10 Stats and Insights research packet), and with a significant rest edge, I like their chances at extending that mark.
The Bucs have, in my opinion, overachieved since the injuries to both of their star receivers and continuing to gamble on an outlier like that is dangerous. Baker Mayfield is dealing with a toe injury, and any limitations on his end make me feel even better about this angle.
I simply don’t trust Tampa Bay to run the ball in general, and that doesn’t change in this spot. They struggle to open up running lanes, making the sixth-best yards per carry after contact defense a tough sell.
If Tampa Bay is going to be one-dimensional without their weapons against a San Francisco team that could reach 30 points with relative ease in Christian McCaffrey’s return – I’ll take my chances!
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 39)
Pick: Under 39
(Bearman) This is the third straight week I am riding the Chargers under and the second straight for the Titans. As we have said before, bad offenses and good defenses equal unders. The Chargers have both — one of, if not the best, defenses in football and a typical Jim Harbaugh 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense.
There’s one team in the NFL that has yet to give up more than 20 points in a game, and it’s this Chargers defense. LA is allowing 12.6 points per game, which is the best in the NFL, while at the same time, only scoring 19.9 a game.
As we noted last week when playing the under against the Patriots, the Titans offense is ranked 27th in yards per game, 31st in passing, 27th in scoring, and 29th in PFN’s Offense + metric.
We were betting last week that the Titans’ defense allowing 86 points in weeks 7-8 was because it was against Josh Allen and Jared Goff and were correct as they held the Patriots in check. The Chargers offense won’t do that much damage, either.
Not one Chargers game has reached 40 points this season, with only one getting to this listed number of 39. All 3 Chargers home games have gone under, with each going under by at least 7.5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43) at Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Cooper Rush under 21.5 completions
(Katz) Rush has been with the Cowboys for seven of his eight years in the NFL. Over that span, he’s made six starts. Do you know how many times he’s completed more than 21 passes? Once. In his first career start back in 2021.
Rush started five consecutive games in the 2022 season after Dak Prescott injured his hand in Week 1. The Cowboys won four of those games. Rush averaged 16.6 completions per game, with 21 as his max.
With a career completion percentage of 60% against an Eagles pass defense allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game this season, this is a bad spot for Rush. Combine that with a banged-up CeeDee Lamb and subpar ancillary pieces, a recipe for disaster for the Cowboys offense.
Pick: Cowboys +7
(Soppe) The Cowboys are a very public team, and that works in both directions. With morale awfully low in Big D, fading them is the direction I expect the public to land.
I’ll be different. All the Cowboys have done is cover 16 of their past 19 (84.2%) home games against divisional opponents. Is this situation a little different? Yeah, but I’m not sure the possession count allows the Eagles to cover this number.
In Weeks 1-4, Philadelphia was operating with pace (sixth fastest offense), but since then, they rank fourth slowest, seeing their time of possession per play increase by 9.9%.
Combine a conservative game plan on the other side with Rush calling the shots, and I think we get a bit of a slog – that’s a game script that plays favorably when catching a full touchdown.
New York Jets (-1, 46) at Arizona Cardinals
Pick: James Conner anytime TD
Katz: I haven’t dabbled in any touchdown props in a few weeks. But we’re making a return, as Conner’s line does not accurately reflect his likelihood of scoring.
What would this line be had Conner scored twice last week?
Because he should have.
The Cardinals got inside the two-yard line twice. The first time, Trey McBride scored a rushing touchdown. You won’t see that every week.
Conner got them there the second time, but on the play that did, he landed hard and was sent to the blue tent. Trey Benson punched in what certainly would have been Conner’s touchdown on the next play.
The Jets are a bottom-third run defense. Over their last three games, they’re allowing the seventh-most rushing yards.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been quite run-heavy this season. Their 49% neutral game script run rate is the seventh-highest in the league.
The Jets are allowing 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. Conner has been playing some of the best football of his career and is the clear goal-line back when he’s not getting checked for injuries. After scoring in three of his first four games, he’s only run in one touchdown since. Dare I say Conner is due? I would play this to -115.
Pick: Cardinals +1.5
Bearman: The media or sportsbooks can’t get these two teams right. The Jets are continuously overvalued in the betting markets despite three wins in nine games, including wins over the terrible Patriots, Titans, and depleted Texans. One primetime win against a Texans team missing multiple WRs, and all is well in New Jersey. People must have forgotten the five-game losing skid.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are leading the NFC West and looking mighty good. Last week, they thrashed the Bears by 20 points, followed by wins over the AFC’s Dolphins and Chargers, and they also have wins against the Niners and Rams.
To show you how much the Jets have been overvalued, especially on the road, they have failed to cover the last three road games by a total of -38. The Cardinals should win this game outright at home.
Pick: Over 46
Soppe: I imagine I don’t have to sell you on the Aaron Rodgers resurgence thing. If I do, he directed 65.6% of his targets last week to either Garrett Wilson or Davante Adams and now gets the benefit of facing a defense that allows points on 47.1% of drives (third highest, better than only Atlanta and Carolina).
But what about the other side? The Jets own the second-highest pressure rate in the league (41.1%), and while that would have me treading with caution in most spots, Kyler Murray is an exception. Through nine weeks, Murray ranks sixth in passer rating when heated up (better than Jared Goff) and 17th when not (worse than Derek Carr).
If Murray is going to put his receivers in a good spot through the air, everything else opens up. Overs is 9-4-1 in his last 14 starts with a total that closes over 45, and that should continue in this specific spot.
Detroit Lions (-3.5, 49) at Houston Texans
Pick: Sam LaPorta Under 3.5 Receptions
(Katz) In eight games this season, LaPorta has caught more than three passes in three of them. He’s caught no more than two passes in his other five games. In fact, LaPorta has seen more than three targets in a game only three times this season.
I did some quick math, and as it turns out, it’s impossible to catch more than three passes if a player doesn’t see more than three targets. Who knew?
This week, the Lions get a Texans defense that has been excellent, defending the tight end this season. Only four teams see opponents throw to the tight end at a lower rate, and the Texans’ total receiving yards allowed to the position is a paltry 10.5%, the lowest in the league.
With Jameson Williams back and Jared Goff attempting a career-low 26.4 passes per game, LaPorta is unlikely to see significant volume in this one.
Pick: Lions ML, Lions -3.5
Soppe: Are the Lions the best team in the NFL? They are certainly in the conversation, if not leading it, and this number feels a bit disrespectful. Nico Collins is eligible to come off of IR this week, but he wasn’t practicing initially, and that leads me to believe that the recent struggles of this Houston offense could continue
Without Nico Collins (Weeks 6-9)
- 33.3% third down
- 47.1% red zone conversion rate
- 20.8% TD
2024 Tennessee Titans
- 35.8% third down
- 52% red zone conversion rate
- 15.6% TD
That’s … brutal. The Lions, as you might imagine, are on the other side of that equation
Detroit Lions (Weeks 4-9)
- 3.31 points per drive
- 80% red zone conversion rate
- 6.4 yards per play
2007 New England Patriots
- 3.19 points per drive
- 69.4% red zone conversion rate
- 6.2 yards per play
Entering this week, teams favored by more than a field goal in primetime have covered eight of their past nine while winning 17 of their past 18 outright. I’ll take the bait and ride with the road team – both on the moneyline (1.5 units) and against the number (0.75 units)
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1, 50)
Pick: Matthew Stafford Under 262.5 Passing Yards
(Katz) Simply put, this line is too high. FanDuel is notoriously sharp when it comes to player props. Every other main book opened this at 262.5, while FD was sitting there at 250.5. I expect the books to come down to the FD line, not vice versa.
Nevertheless, this line appears to be an overreaction to Stafford’s last two games when he threw for 298 and 279 yards. Those two performances came in high-scoring games against a bottom-five pass defense and a bottom-half pass defense. This week, Stafford gets a Dolphins defense allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game.
From Weeks 1-6, Stafford threw for over 260 yards just once, back in Week 1.
Now, to be fair, there is something different about Weeks 1, 8, and 9 from the rest of the season. Those were the only weeks he had Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field.
Even so, Stafford can have a big game in a high-scoring affair without tearing it up through the air. The Dolphins are not a bad run defense, but they are much more beatable on the ground than through the air/ Look for a heavy dose of Kyren Williams, keeping Stafford in the 220-240 passing yard range this week. I would play this down to 256.5.
Pick: Under 50
Soppe: I understand if your instinct is to bet the over in this spot – neither defense has impressed this season, and neither offense has been as healthy as they’ve been. But the sportsbooks are well aware of those facts and seem to be pushing this number up to see just how they can set it while still attracting action on both sides.
I’ll bite.
Tua Tagovailoa and Stafford both carry high-end potential, but we are evaluating what will most likely occur. Over Tagovailoa’s past seven starts, his Dolphins are averaging 19.9 points per game with zero 30-point performances. Over Stafford’s past 19 starts, his Rams are averaging 23.8 points per game with five 30-point outings.
Neither of these offenses ranks better than 25th in red zone conversion rate this season, and both are below average in terms of rushing success rate on the defensive side. If these two teams are settling for field goals in a game that constantly has a running clock – they’d need to be close to perfect to go over this total.
Could that happen? Sure. There are game-breakers on both ends. Am I projecting it? Nope. Unders are 13-3-1 in Stafford’s last seven starts, where the total closes north of 47 points, a trend I like to continue.