The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Las Vegas Raiders last week with relative ease. This is the first of what will be many must-win situations if the Bengals want to stay in the thick of the Wild Card race. In terms of the AFC North crown, chances are slim, but any path to the title requires a win over the Baltimore Ravens this week.
The Ravens have the betting favorite in both the MVP and OPOY races in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Any and all regression the Ravens’ defense experienced from losing Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks has been mostly nullified because of Jackson and Henry’s elite performances during what is a 6-3 season to date.
The Ravens are once again one of the few teams with a legit shot at dethroning the Chiefs dynasty.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Ravens -6 - Moneyline
Ravens (-270); Bengals (+220) - Over/Under
53 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
M&T Bank Stadium
Bengals vs. Ravens Preview and Prediction
In the 41-38 barnburner between these two teams earlier in the season, both offenses showed up in emphatic ways. The Ravens and Bengals had 93rd and 92nd percentile EPA (expected points added) per play on offense, respectively. What made this even more absurd was that they both had 91st percentile performances in EPA on late-down situations.
A volatile game script led to Joe Burrow and Jackson going shot for shot and clutch moment for clutch moment. The Ravens’ offensive line allowed just one pressure under 2.5 seconds and the Bengals only allowed two. The difference was that those two pressures both led to sacks. This is because Jackson has an elite sack-avoidance trait that Burrow lacks.
Jackson ranks sixth among qualified quarterbacks in pressure-to-sack percentage (P2S%) despite being tied for fourth in time to throw, according to PFF. For comparison, Burrow ranks 17th in P2S% while having the 11th-shortest time to throw. Using Tru Media, I was able to look at the Bengals’ offensive performance and see if Burrow’s tendencies lead to negative results.
The Bengals rank third in EPA under pressure and second when under quick pressure. While Burrow could stand to improve on sack avoidance, he is still nails under pressure. Furthermore, the Bengals’ offense ranks 14th in least amount of EPA lost to sacks, showing that his sacks this season have been low leverage and haven’t affected the offense much at all.
Defensively, the Ravens are ranked 25th and Bengals are 27th in EPA. The Ravens’ defense struggles against the pass, ranking 28th in EPA, 32nd in passes of 10 or more yards given up, and 31st in passes of 20 or more yards given up. The Bengals, on the other hand, struggle more with the run. They do a fantastic job (seventh overall) of stopping explosive plays but give up a successful rush at a league-worst rate of 48.8%.
The Bengals will have to outscore the Ravens to win this game because both teams excel on offense and struggle on defense. Last time they played, the Ravens made just a couple more plays that made the difference, especially in overtime.
Humphrey picks off Burrow!@Ravens take over with 3 minutes left trailing by 3.
📺: #BALvsCIN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/iekORIBMbb— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
My pick: Ravens ML (-270); Bengals +6 (-110)