San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, who is recovering from an Achilles injury, has had his 21-day window to return to the field opened. This means he could rejoin the offense as early as Week 10 or as late as the Week 13 showdown against the Buffalo Bills.
The running back position has largely been devalued over the course of time, but McCaffrey has proven to be an exception to that rule, and his pending return could turn the race for supremacy in the NFC on its head.
Let’s dive into the latest news and what it means for the NFL as a whole as we now enter the second half of the season.
Is Christian McCaffrey Playing in Week 10?
All stats referenced in this article are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
Week 10 has been the target date San Francisco presented for a month now, and it appears more likely than not to hold true. However, we don’t yet have 100% confirmation that the former All-Pro will take the field this weekend in Tampa Bay.
CMC 65-YARD TOUCHDOWN
📺: #SFvsPIT on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/G4uoYVOqQn pic.twitter.com/zi4Pfvw8zv— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2023
The 4-4 49ers are in the thick of a four-team battle in the NFC West, where there is only a single game of separation.
NFC West Standings
- Arizona Cardinals: 5-4 (-7 point differential)
- Los Angeles Rams: 4-4 (-24)
- San Francisco 49ers: 4-4 (+28)
- Seattle Seahawks: 4-5 (-11)
Despite not currently holding the lead, the 49ers are listed as the favorites to win the division when all is said and done (+130 at DraftKings), followed by the Cardinals (+170), Rams (+350), and Seahawks (+1200).
McCaffrey returning to San Francisco’s offense, on the surface, sounds like a big deal. He’s one of the premier players at the position and capable of taking over a game at a moment’s notice. But how much upward mobility does this offense realistically have? Through nine weeks this season:
- Second in yards per play
- Second in yards per pass
- Third in yards per rush
- Third in red-zone drive percentage
- Sixth in third-down conversion rate
The impact will be less in the overall numbers and more on how this team finishes games. The 49ers, through nine weeks, rank 23rd in point differential in second halves this season, a stat that feels made up. That ranks them behind, among others, the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Some of the fourth-quarter numbers get skewed due to the lopsided nature of contests, but over the final 30 minutes?
During his time with San Francisco, McCaffrey has posted elite numbers across the board, but especially as the clock ticks down.
First Halves
- 14.3% of carries gain 10 yards
- 35.5% elusive rate
Second Halves
- 15.6% of carries gain 10 yards
- 39.4% elusive rate*
*Our elusive rating is a highbred stat that evaluates how often a running back reaches an elite mark on a specific run either before or after contact.
McCaffrey doesn’t wear down. He gets stronger, which is exactly what this team needs if they are going to represent the NFC in February. Standing in San Francisco’s way to glory, per the odds, are the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles — all of whom have defenses that can be had by a player like McCaffrey.
- Lions: 27th in rushing score rate, 29th in yards allowed per carry before contact
- Eagles: 18th in rushing first-down rate, 24th in yards per carry before contact
- Vikings: 21st in pass TD rate on RB targets, 29th-most RB targets per game
The 49ers have been able to tread water in the absence of the most valuable running back in the sport and appear ready to peak at the right time. McCaffrey averages 5.0 yards per carry during his postseason career, and let’s not forget that even though San Francisco came up a few plays short last season, it wasn’t the fault of its star tailback.
In the Super Bowl last season, not only was CMC the game’s leading rusher (80 yards), he accounted for one-third of San Francisco’s receptions (more than Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. combined).
The NFL is a more fun place with McCaffrey on the field, and the 49ers are to be labeled as a true title threat with him returning to action.