The New York Jets will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding WR Garrett Wilson.
Is Garrett Wilson Playing in Week 10?
Wilson is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Jets’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Garrett Wilson in Week 10?
Woah.
Last Thursday night, Garrett Wilson was down-right special (9-90-2). From invoking memories of Odell Beckham Jr. to one of the better QB/WR placement/catch plays that will never be remembered due to the aforementioned highlight, this was the version of the former Buckeye we thought we’d see regularly in 2024.
THROW GARRETT WILSON THE BALL 👏
Any time TD scorer: (+180) ✅
via @nyjets | #JetUppic.twitter.com/oeucAH3nHK
— FanDuel Sportsbook (@FDSportsbook) November 1, 2024
Wilson put you on a great path to success in Week 9, but this isn’t a Week 9 article, is it?
On the left is Aaron Rodgers’ pass chart from Halloween; on the right is the first eight weeks of this season. He hit on a few big plays, and that’s great, but we are in the business of predicting what will happen in the future and using trends from the past to do so.
Rodgers, Week 9:
- 15.6% of attempts were deep downfield
- 78.1% quick release rate
- 5.8 average depth of throw
Rodgers, Weeks 1-8:
- 23.4% of attempts were deep downfield
- 70.1% quick release rate
- 7.1 average depth of throw
You remember the home-run shots, but in reality, Week 9’s game plan was as conservative and timing-based as any Rodgers has put on film this season. Why am I listing those stats with Wilson instead of Rodgers, you ask?
Because they scare me.
I’m normally a “glass half full” type, but I’m worried that what we just saw from Wilson is destined to be the exception, not the norm. Those Rodgers metrics, to me, reflect a desire to get the ball out of his hands. I think that’s the right approach, I just don’t think it allows Wilson to thrive on a consistent basis, not based on his current usage patterns anyway.
This season, Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not. On the whole, that profile is good for the upside but bad for sustainability.
In Philadelphia, they have an inverse situation, but the teaching point remains. Over the past calendar year, DeVonta Smith’s aDOT is 24% higher when A.J. Brown is off the field than when he is on it. In those deeper target situations, his per-target fantasy production has dipped over 33%.
Thankfully, for Smith managers, Brown doesn’t miss much time, so that split isn’t as worrisome. For Wilson, the Jets are only going to put Adams on the field more with time as they attempt to save this season with a very manageable schedule ahead.
Wilson will have his moments moving forward because he’s a great player, and Rodgers proved last week that there is still gas in the tank. However, I’m very interested in testing the trade markets as deadlines approach — this might well prove to be the peak of his 2024 value.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 10
As of Sunday, Wilson is projected to score 17 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 4.4 receptions for 92 yards and 0.6 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on Cardinals Defense
We saw the Arizona Cardinals’ best defensive performance of the year. They finished first in Week 9 by restricting the Chicago Bears to nine points. It was an impressive all-around performance, topped off by stopping the Bears from scoring on any of their red-zone trips and making it hard to convert on third down.
The Cardinals have struggled to string good performances together, with five in the bottom 10 compared to just three in the top 10. Their biggest struggle has come against the pass, but they have also ranked 31st on third down and in the bottom 10 against the run. The schedule has been tough to start the season, but it gets easier from here, so they will hope to build on their good Week 9 performance.
Do you want more insight on all other defensive units across the NFL? Head over to our PFN Defense+ Rankings for analysis on all 32 teams.
Garrett Wilson’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship WR PPR Rankings
1) A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. WAS)
2) Terry McLaurin | WAS (at PHI)
3) DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
4) Khalil Shakir | BUF (at KC)
5) Xavier Worthy | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Hollywood Brown | KC (vs. BUF)
7) DeAndre Hopkins | KC (vs. BUF)
8) Keon Coleman | BUF (at KC)
9) Dyami Brown | WAS (at PHI)
10) Mack Hollins | BUF (at KC)
11) Amari Cooper | BUF (at KC)
12) Curtis Samuel | BUF (at KC)
13) Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS (at PHI)
14) JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (vs. BUF)
15) Jahan Dotson | PHI (vs. WAS)
16) Jamison Crowder | WAS (at PHI)
17) Luke McCaffrey | WAS (at PHI)
18) Justin Watson | KC (vs. BUF)
19) Johnny Wilson | PHI (vs. WAS)
20) Parris Campbell | PHI (vs. WAS)
21) Nikko Remigio | KC (vs. BUF)
22) Ainias Smith | PHI (vs. WAS)
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals Insights
New York Jets
Team: New York is allowing the second-fewest yards per pass after the completion this season (4.4, league average: 5.3).
QB: The Jets own the highest red zone pass rate in the league this season (59.3%, league average: 34.2%).
Offense: New York is making minor strides in converting third downs. In Weeks 4-5, they picked up just 26.5% of their third downs, a rate that rose to 31.8% in Weeks 6-7 and to 40.9% over the past two weeks.
Defense: A league-high 45.6% of yards gained against the Jets come on the ground (league average: 35.6%).
Fantasy: Garrett Wilson’s aDOT is 35.2% higher when Davante Adams is on the field than when he’s not – something that adds both upside (like what we saw on Thursday night against the Texans) and downside into his fantasy profile.
Betting: The Jets have failed to cover three straight road games (cumulative cover margin in those games: -38) and eight of their past 10.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Arizona is 5-4 this season after winning just five of their previous 27 games.
QB: Three times over the past month, Kyler Murray failed to rush for 20 yards (prior to this stretch, 49.4 rush yards per game).
Offense: Arizona averages 4.78 runs per game of 10-plus yards, a figure that sits behind only Lamar Jackson’s Ravens through nine weeks.
Defense: The Cardinals have the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL (48.2%, only one-tenth of a point ahead of the Panthers).
Fantasy: James Conner continues to be a good story, but be careful – his fantasy points per touch is pacing to decline for a third straight season (every year of his Arizona career) and this is still ap layer who has missed multiple games in every season entering 2024.
Betting: The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS (28.6%) in their last seven games when their opponent enters on extended rest (the Jets beat the Texans last Thursday night).
