We are now halfway through the NFL regular season and have officially passed the trade deadline, which means all eyes are starting to focus on who could make the playoffs and potentially all the way to the Super Bowl. To help us do that, we have our Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, which are forged using our Power Ranking+ (PR+) methodology.
Here at Pro Football Network, we have tried to remove the judgment element from the process by creating our PR+ metric. This metric combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, sprinkles in some special teams, and then applies a level of correction for the strength of a team’s schedule.
Those are the top-level ingredients, but there’s much more depth that goes into creating the PFN PR+ numbers.
Is this system perfect? Absolutely not, and as we continue to research, we’ll continue tinkering with the elements that make up the PFN PR+. That may be at the Offense+ or Defense+ level, or it may be adding a fifth element that our analysis determines should be included in the overall rankings.
1) Detroit Lions
Record: 7-1
- Offense+ Rank: 4
- Defense+ Rank: 7
- Special Teams Rank: 5
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 14
The Detroit Lions took their latest test in stride as they headed outdoors for the first time this season. Facing another high-quality team in conditions that tend to favor them is a tough ask, so to win by 10 points is impressive. It would have been intriguing to see this game played with Jordan Love at 100% health, but the Lions did what was required of them.
The Lions’ schedule gets harder from here on out, but they’ve overcome two tough tests in the past three weeks. All three of Detroit’s units rank inside the top 10, and Jared Goff is putting together a very impressive season. All the pieces are here for this team to go deep into the playoffs if they can get the train on the tracks.
2) Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 8-0
- Offense+ Rank: 6
- Defense+ Rank: 11
- Special Teams Rank: 26
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 17
In Week 9, the Kansas City Chiefs won another unconvincing victory, requiring overtime to defeat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Six of Kansas City’s eight wins have been by one score or less, and it’s hard to shake the feeling that, at some point, there could be regression in terms of those one-score game results.
Still, when you have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the advantage in those clutch spots is huge.
The numbers show that the Chiefs are good without being spectacular in any aspect. The offense ranking sixth despite all the injury issues is impressive and a huge credit to Mahomes and his ability to consistently make plays in big moments. The defense needs to improve some, especially with a big test against the Buffalo Bills on the road on the horizon.
3) Baltimore Ravens
Record: 6-3
- Offense+ Rank: 1
- Defense+ Rank: 21
- Special Teams Rank: 25
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 13
When the Baltimore Ravens offense gets clicking, it is a joy to behold. They were superb against the Denver Broncos, who, despite allowing 41 points this week, remain a good unit.
There have been a few hiccups this season, but Baltimore’s offense has the potential to put together a strong run in January. They are effective both on the ground and through the air, which makes them largely weather and opponent-proof.
The Ravens’ defense and special teams remain concerns, and they must improve in the coming weeks. An offense this good should be winning comfortably if it has a competent defense. Yet, the Ravens have had six one-score games and are 3-3 in them. Baltimore has a tough schedule coming up, starting Thursday night with a rematch against the Cincinnati Bengals.
4) Minnesota Vikings
Record: 6-2
- Offense+ Rank: 12
- Defense+ Rank: 2
- Special Teams Rank: 18
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 5
It wasn’t pretty watching the Minnesota Vikings this week, but they largely controlled the game against the Indianapolis Colts. The turnovers will be the biggest concern, and Minnesota’s offense is going to need some time to click with Cam Robinson arriving to replace Christian Darrisaw at left tackle.
The Vikings have a nice run of games here to put things on the right track, which is a huge plus. The defense remains one of the best in the league and stopped the rot a little against the Colts.
Minnesota’s next three games are not likely to be big tests, but they have four good offenses coming up in the final six weeks. The schedule eases off a little in the second half of the season, but this is still a top-12 remaining SOS, which means there can’t be too much room for error.
5) Buffalo Bills
Record: 7-2
- Offense+ Rank: 5
- Defense+ Rank: 16
- Special Teams Rank: 21
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 24
It wasn’t comfortable for the Bills, but they handled their business against the Miami Dolphins and will be pleased to have both matchups against them over. Buffalo’s schedule from here on out is mixed, with four tough games in a row around their bye week.
The Bills must be careful not to overlook the Colts this week because a win here would put them in an almost unassailable position in the AFC East. By the time they host New England in Week 16, we’ll have a good idea of their Super Bowl credentials.
The Bills have matchups with the Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Lions in a five-week span. Go 4-0 or 3-1 through that stretch, and they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. However, 2-2 or worse would expose Buffalo as a group that can bully bad teams but doesn’t have the strength to compete at the top end.
6) San Francisco 49ers
Record: 4-4
- Offense+ Rank: 10
- Defense+ Rank: 14
- Special Teams Rank: 29
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 12
It has been a thoroughly unconvincing season for the 49ers, but despite it all, they sit sixth in our PR+. Coming off their bye, they should get Christian McCaffrey back, which will be a huge boost to a good but not spectacular offense. The biggest area they need McCaffrey is in the red zone, where their offense ranks 28th in terms of efficiency.
The schedule is not ideal for San Francisco from here on out, ranking as the fourth toughest. That is considerably tougher than both the Rams and Arizona Cardinals and is a big part of the reason why the PFN Playoff Predictor has this division bordering on a coin flip still.
7) Green Bay Packers
Record: 6-3
- Offense+ Rank: 11
- Defense+ Rank: 17
- Special Teams Rank: 27
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 6
The Green Bay Packers shouldn’t be too disheartened by their loss to the Lions, given it came with Love hobbled. It’s hard to read too much into the game for that reason and where the Packers stand relatively. Green Bay is probably a tier below Detroit and in a big group of teams that will be in the playoff picture but not among the top picks for the Super Bowl this season.
Green Bay’s offense is arguably a little better than its current ranking, given that it has played two games with Malik Willis and at least two or three with Love at less than 100%. With a fully healthy quarterback, this is almost certainly a top-10 unit and potentially bordering on top five.
The Packers’ defense is a concern, but league-average is fine when you’ve played the sixth-hardest schedule and have a good offense. Unfortunately, things only get harder from here.
Green Bay has the second-hardest remaining schedule, which puts them at risk of missing the playoffs despite its strong start. With a group of NFC teams queuing up between four and six wins right now, 11 wins might be needed to be assured of a playoff spot without relying on tiebreaker scenarios.
8) Washington Commanders
Record: 7-2
- Offense+ Rank: 2
- Defense+ Rank: 23
- Special Teams Rank: 16
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 30
It has clearly become a two-horse race for the NFC East, and after nine weeks, the Washington Commanders have put themselves in pole position. The Commanders are 5-1 within the conference, so they already have a leg up on the Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 in conference play). However, they still need to at least split their two meetings and not drop too many games in the second half of the season.
Washington’s offense continues to be superb. The Commanders have scored 25+ points on five occasions and 21+ in seven games. This season, teams that score 25 points are 86-18, while teams that score 21 points or more are 113-39.
The metrics suggest this defense is mediocre at best, but they’ve kept teams to 18 points or less on five occasions. Limit the struggles against better offenses, and this is a complete team.
9) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4-5
- Offense+ Rank: 3
- Defense+ Rank: 25
- Special Teams Rank: 11
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 1
The way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have fought in recent weeks is very impressive, but their defense and the inability to get across the line is putting them in a tough spot. At full strength, this might be the second-best offense in the NFL. If the Bucs can just get their defense to be league-average, they can be competitive with any team.
Things look a little bleak, and it could get worse in Week 10 against the 49ers. However, slipping to 4-6 is not a disaster by any means. Tampa Bay has played the toughest schedule in the NFL and only lost two of their five games by more than a score.
The Buccaneers’ schedule going forward is the easiest in the league, meaning they could easily run the table in the final seven weeks.
10) Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6-2
- Offense+ Rank: 21
- Defense+ Rank: 6
- Special Teams Rank: 2
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 29
The AFC is somewhat of a bizarre conference because it has three teams ranked inside the top five but just four inside the top 13. The Pittsburgh Steelers are the team currently spanning the vast gap between the conference’s elite three teams and the mid-pack.
The Steelers’ record is fantastic at 6-2, but it feels like it’s built on weak foundations. Sure, the defense is a top-six unit, and the offense has looked good under Russell Wilson. The problem is that they’ve played the fourth-easiest schedule to date but, going forward, will face the fifth-hardest.
The next two games (at Washington, vs. Baltimore) will give us an idea of whether this is a solid playoff team or one that could be facing regression back to the AFC’s middle tier before the end of the season.
11) Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 6-2
- Offense+ Rank: 14
- Defense+ Rank: 9
- Special Teams Rank: 19
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 31
The Philadelphia Eagles keep chugging away, but we’ve yet to get a real feel for how good they are. The Eagles have now beaten four teams in a row who rank in the bottom half of our PR+. Their toughest tests came against the Buccaneers and Packers, who are both in the top 10. They snuck past Green Bay in Week 1 and were comprehensively beaten by Tampa Bay.
Philadelphia’s offense has been solid, and Jalen Hurts has played really well in the last two weeks. The defense has shone in recent weeks, pushing itself into the top 10 of our Defense+ metric.
The Eagles have played the second-easiest schedule to date and face a tough three-week stretch with the Commanders, Rams, and Ravens in Weeks 11-13. However, the overall schedule ranks as the fourth easiest the rest of the way.
12) Los Angeles Rams
Record: 4-4
- Offense+ Rank: 13
- Defense+ Rank: 19
- Special Teams Rank: 28
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 3
When you consider that the Rams have faced a brutal schedule and had major injury issues, sitting at 4-4 is very impressive. This season had the feeling of falling away in the first few weeks, but they held firm and have now won three straight to get back to .500. The schedule going forward is easier, but it’s not one you would describe as “easy,” ranking as the 18th-toughest.
Los Angeles’ offense is a borderline top-10 unit, and it will need to overcome a defense that is slightly below average. Keeping the trio of Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Kyren Williams on the field is vital so this offense can run a three-pronged spear. The division remains very much in play, but there are plenty of potential stumbling blocks along the way.
13) Arizona Cardinals
Record: 5-4
- Offense+ Rank: 7
- Defense+ Rank: 27
- Special Teams Rank: 14
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 2
The Cardinals’ impressive performance in Week 9 has put them in a position to control the NFC West for now. This group is a tough one to read, with Arizona’s performances on both sides of the ball having been largely inconsistent. Still, the offense is ranked seventh, and they’ve scored 20 points in a row for the second consecutive time since the first two weeks.
Only two of Arizona’s five victories have been by more than a score, with three of the four coming by a combined four points. The Cardinals have faced a tough schedule to the open season (second overall), but things ease off in the coming weeks with the ninth-easiest. However, they still have rematches with both the Rams and 49ers, who the Cardinals beat the first time around.
14) New York Jets
Record: 3-6
- Offense+ Rank: 17
- Defense+ Rank: 5
- Special Teams Rank: 32
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 15
The New York Jets are a better team than their record indicates. Their defense remains a top-five unit, and their offense is right around league-average. Given that they’ve played a middling schedule so far, that only shows how much this unit has underperformed so far. However, New York lost four of those games by one score and three of them by a field goal or less.
The Jets have the fifth-easiest remaining schedule, which gives them a chance to recover for a playoff spot. There are five front-runners in this conference (if you include the Houston Texans as clear AFC South favorites), but the final two spots right now are occupied by teams with five wins. The Jets are very much capable of getting to nine or 10 wins, which could be enough in the AFC.
15) Denver Broncos
Record: 5-4
- Offense+ Rank: 25
- Defense+ Rank: 3
- Special Teams Rank: 7
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 25
The Broncos’ loss in Week 9 was humbling. It was their first matchup with one of the very elite teams this year, and they were put firmly in their place.
Having ridden a soft schedule to a 5-3 record and a top-10 spot in our metrics, Denver fell back closer to the middle of the pack with this loss, and the style of it.
Denver’s defense is still a very good unit; struggling against a superb Ravens offense doesn’t change that. The offense remains a concern, however, as Baltimore’s defense is one of the worst in the league, and they could only score 10 points.
The problem for the Broncos is that this offense isn’t built to chase games, which is what happened in Week 9. They have two more tough tests coming up in Weeks 10 and 11 before things get easier again.
16) Los Angeles Chargers
Record: 5-3
- Offense+ Rank: 27
- Defense+ Rank: 1
- Special Teams Rank: 9
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 26
The jury very much remains out on a Los Angeles Chargers team that has faced the seventh-easiest schedule to date. They’ve ridden their defense to a 5-3 record, having only allowed 20 points once and 17+ points on three occasions. However, the fact that Los Angeles lost every game it allowed 17+ points demonstrates the frailties of the offense.
The positive for the Chargers is that their remaining schedule ranks as the seventh-easiest despite a brutal stretch in the middle of it. From Weeks 12 to 16, they play the Ravens, Falcons, Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Broncos. If the Chargers go 1-4 or 0-5 in that stretch, this season could flip entirely on its head for them.
17) Houston Texans
Record: 6-3
- Offense+ Rank: 23
- Defense+ Rank: 10
- Special Teams Rank: 20
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 19
The Texans remain a thoroughly unconvincing team, especially on offense. Houston’s defense is a solid unit that ranks 10th overall through nine weeks, but with the offense’s struggles, this team has benefited to this point from a soft schedule and a weak division.
The good news for Houston is that the schedule doesn’t get much harder, and the division isn’t likely to get much tougher.
The Texans remain in pole position for the AFC South, having beaten the Colts twice and having a two-game lead over them in the standings. They would need to fail to win three more games than Indianapolis to lose their grip on the division.
Even if Houston wins the AFC South, the Texans would be the least convincing division winner in the conference and unlikely to have a deep playoff run as things stand.
18) Seattle Seahawks
Record: 4-5
- Offense+ Rank: 16
- Defense+ Rank: 13
- Special Teams Rank: 12
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 11
Evaluating the Seattle Seahawks is tough because all their unit metrics in Offense+, Defense+, and special teams tell you that this is an above-average team. However, they might actually be a worse team than their PR+ ranking indicates simply because they padded their stats with some good games against weak teams in the opening month of the season.
The Seahawks are now fourth in the division and face the third-hardest schedule in the NFL going forward. Despite a 3-0 start, this might now be a team that has half an eye on not getting embarrassed in terms of their schedule as opposed to pushing for a playoff spot.
19) Atlanta Falcons
Record: 6-3
- Offense+ Rank: 9
- Defense+ Rank: 30
- Special Teams Rank: 20
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 19
There aren’t many metrics that suggest the Atlanta Falcons are good value for their 6-3 record. The Falcons’ offense is at least a top-10 unit, but their defense is a mess, ranking third worst in the league.
There’s a lot of pressure on Atlanta’s offense. If they have an off day, they’re likely to lose. The Falcons have allowed 20+ points in their last eight games but have managed to win six of them.
Entering Week 10, the Falcons are in a strong position. They have a two-game lead over the Buccaneers in the standings with the head-to-head tiebreaker as well. With the sixth-easiest remaining schedule, Atlanta is in a good position, and a win this week could all but hand the Falcons the title if Tampa also loses.
20) Chicago Bears
Record: 4-4
- Offense+ Rank: 24
- Defense+ Rank: 4
- Special Teams Rank: 17
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 32
The Chicago Bears have been all over the map this season but are trending down on offense at the wrong moments. Their defense did not have a great game against the Cardinals, which, when combined with the end of the Washington game, has made for a bad week and a bit for this unit. The offense needs to get right quickly after scoring just 12 points per game in the last two weeks.
The positive spin for the Bears is that they get the New England Patriots this week in a game they should win. However, after that, they have the hardest remaining schedule this season, and they could even slip up this week if they look ahead to an incredibly tough stretch of games that follow. Seven of their remaining nine games come against teams ranked in the top 10 of our PR+ standings.
21) Miami Dolphins
Record: 2-6
- Offense+ Rank: 19
- Defense+ Rank: 18
- Special Teams Rank: 31
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 27
The Dolphins got a big jump up in our power rankings this week with their offense now back to being league-average overall rather than among the worst units in the NFL. There might be further rises to come in the coming weeks, but it will all be for nothing if they don’t win a game soon.
Miami’s last two losses have been soul-snatching by a combined four points, putting them in must-win territory. The Dolphins’ remaining schedule ranks as the eighth-easiest, though, and there’s a path to winning seven or eight games. However, they need a lot to go their way.
More realistically, Miami is looking at going 5-4 or 6-3 down the stretch, which likely won’t be enough for a playoff spot in 2024.
22) Indianapolis Colts
Record: 4-5
- Offense+ Rank: 22
- Defense+ Rank: 22
- Special Teams Rank: 8
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 8
The switch to Joe Flacco was supposed to make the Colts a bigger playoff threat in 2024, but Indianapolis’ offense looked worse than ever in Week 9. They faced a tough defense, so maybe improvement is to come, but both the offense and defense now rank outside the top 20.
Based on the current numbers, Indy’s roster isn’t good enough to compete in the AFC playoff picture despite being very much in the Wild Card race. Chasing a playoff spot in 2024 at the expense of developing their young quarterback appears to be an odd decision.
23) Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 4-5
- Offense+ Rank: 8
- Defense+ Rank: 28
- Special Teams Rank: 14
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 28
The Bengals are an intriguing team because they are only a field goal miss away from being above the Ravens in the standings and sitting at 5-4. However, the underlying metrics suggest that Cincinnati isn’t as good as its record would suggest.
The Bengals’ wins have come against the Panthers, Giants, Browns, and Raiders — all of whom rank in the bottom eight of the NFL.
Cincinnati’s defense is the biggest issue, having allowed 20+ points on six occasions, resulting in four of its six losses. The offense is a good unit, but it has to be spectacular to overcome the defense. The Bengals are 2-2 when scoring over 30 points, which is a tough way to win football games, especially against stronger competition.
Cincinnati has the 10th-hardest schedule going forward, and a playoff spot is perhaps further away than their record would suggest. Yet, a win on Thursday in Baltimore would flip that narrative on its head.
24) Dallas Cowboys
Record: 3-5
- Offense+ Rank: 20
- Defense+ Rank: 26
- Special Teams Rank: 4
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 7
The Dallas Cowboys were already in trouble before Dak Prescott was injured and set to miss at least the next four games. With the 11th-hardest schedule going forward, winning seven of their remaining nine games was going to be tough, and now it’s become almost impossible.
Dallas may end up finishing 2024 in the bottom five when all is said and done.
25) New York Giants
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 30
- Defense+ Rank: 15
- Special Teams Rank: 23
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 4
We saw signs of life from the New York Giants offense, but it still wasn’t enough for them to win in Week 9. The problem when you have a bottom-tier offense is that you at least need a top-10 defense, and they’re there on that side of the ball.
The schedule does flip in the coming weeks, going from the fourth-hardest to the second-easiest. But while New York won’t be officially eliminated for a few more weeks, 10-7 seems a realistic number to make the postseason in the NFC, meaning the Giants would need to win all of their remaining eight games.
26) Tennessee Titans
Record: 2-6
- Offense+ Rank: 29
- Defense+ Rank: 12
- Special Teams Rank: 30
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 10
The Tennessee Titans won in Week 9, but a win against the Patriots in overtime doesn’t count for much in the grand scheme of things.
Tennessee’s offense has been a problem regardless of who’s playing quarterback, and the defense is roughly a league-average unit that can do well against bad offenses but struggles against better ones.
27) Cleveland Browns
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 32
- Defense+ Rank: 8
- Special Teams Rank: 3
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 23
The Cleveland Browns offense under Jameis Winston appears to be just as capable of struggling as the Deshaun Watson version was.
In the last two weeks, we’ve seen the gulf between facing a top defense and a below-average one for the Browns. In games where the offense can be competent, the defense is good enough to keep them in the picture, and their special teams are a solid unit.
Unfortunately, Cleveland’s remaining schedule ranks as the seventh-toughest, so there might not be too many winnable games remaining on the slate.
28) New Orleans Saints
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 18
- Defense+ Rank: 20
- Special Teams Rank: 13
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 22
The New Orleans Saints became the second team to fire their head coach this season, but this one made much more sense than the first. Both New Orleans’ offense and defense are below-average units, and the team is on a seven-game losing streak and essentially eliminated from playoff contention.
29) Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 15
- Defense+ Rank: 31
- Special Teams Rank: 6
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 16
The Jacksonville Jaguars will be frustrated at losing games they could have won in the last two weeks. They are now 1-5 in one-score games, and that has essentially ended their season.
Jacksonville does have a slim chance of making the playoffs if they were to go 8-0 or 7-1. However, with the second-worst defense, a league-average offense, and a middle-of-the-pack remaining schedule strength, that seems unlikely.
30) Las Vegas Raiders
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 28
- Defense+ Rank: 24
- Special Teams Rank: 10
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 9
The Las Vegas Raiders fired their offensive coordinator and a number of his staff this week, which, on the surface, makes sense. Las Vegas ranks 28th in Offense+, but it’s also 24th in Defense+, so pinning the entire blame on the offensive staff when they were given Gardner Minshew II, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder as quarterbacks seems harsh.
The Raiders’ schedule will get a little easier from here, but their focus should be on the 2025 NFL Draft as opposed to the playoffs.
31) New England Patriots
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 31
- Defense+ Rank: 29
- Special Teams Rank: 1
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 20
The Patriots don’t have much going for them right now, with their offense ranking 31st and the defense 29th. The offense has looked better with Drake Maye, but he still has a huge talent deficiency around him in terms of pass catchers compared to the rest of the league.
The defense is the bigger issue, given Jerod Mayo’s background in that area. That will raise some serious questions if it doesn’t improve this year and into 2025.
New England’s special teams remain amazing, which is a fun little side note for a team that has historically prided itself on being among the best in that area of the game.
32) Carolina Panthers
Record: 2-7
- Offense+ Rank: 26
- Defense+ Rank: 32
- Special Teams Rank: 22
- SOS Rank Through Week 9: 21
The Carolina Panthers somehow won their second game of the season, despite a combination of stats suggesting they would have lost on 275 previous occasions.
The overall metrics are still bad, but Bryce Young is improving, and that is the most important thing for this season. Wins are fine, but Carolina needs to determine if Young can be the offensive leader going forward.