The Kansas City Chiefs try to take another step towards another AFC West title, hosting the Denver Broncos. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of November 4, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 42)
The Denver Broncos defense came crashing back down to earth against the Ravens, but that offense will make even the best defenses look stupid from time to time. The Kansas City Chiefs offense is good, but it’s not in the same stratosphere as Baltimore right now, so the Broncos should have more success this week. The problem for Denver is that its offense cannot go toe-to-toe if this game starts to get high scoring.
The Chiefs are the clear favorite, but laying 9.5 points on a team that has only won two games this season by more than a single score doesn’t fill me with confidence. Kansas City has yet to look convincing on either side of the ball, despite the metrics saying they are a top-12 group in both aspects.
I’m looking to attack this game by teasing the Chiefs down as close to three points as I am willing to go with the odds. That teaser will most likely settle in the 3.5-to-4-point region, which, when paired with the Ravens’ ML, could make for an intriguing combo backing two of the best three AFC teams.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17
Pick: Chiefs -3.5 or -4 in a teaser
Broncos at Chiefs Game Stats and Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: No team has more time to pass, on average, than the Broncos this season (3.26 seconds, 14% longer than the league average).
QB: Bo Nix and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs in the league this season, with four games featuring 30 passes and 35 rushing yards.
Offense: The Broncos are one of five teams yet to connect on a 50-yard play this season (the others are the Browns, Titans, Giants, and Panthers).
Defense: The Broncos force a three-and-out on 37.9% of drives, the seventh-highest mark in the NFL this season.
Fantasy: The development of a rookie quarterback can serve as a rising tide – Courtland Sutton has posted two of his top-10 yards per route marks of his career over the past two weeks.
Betting: The Broncos are just 3-7 ATS (30%) in their past 10 road games within the division. On the bright side, their last game in Kansas City was one of those three covers (27-24 loss as a 12.5-point underdog).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Since Andy Reid became their head coach in 2013, the Chiefs are 12-3 against rookie starting QBs. However, they lost their last game vs. Aidan O’Connell and the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023.
QB: Patrick Mahomes averaged a career-low 7.0 yards per pass last season – he’s failed to reach that number in three straight games.
Offense: Since 2020, the Chiefs are 14-8 (63.6%) when trailing entering the fourth quarter – the Steelers rank second in win percentage in such spots over that stretch at 34.1%.
Defense: In Week 7, Jordan Mason had a 26-yard rush against the Chiefs. They haven’t allowed a player to rush for more than 24 yards in a game since.
Fantasy: Patrick Mahomes hinted pregame that DeAndre Hopkins was going to be used more with time, and it didn’t take long – the former Titan accounted for one-third of his completions in the first half, tallying 66 yards and a touchdown in the process.
Betting: The Chiefs have covered three straight divisional games when playing on short rest (three of their past four such games have finished under the total).