The Miami Dolphins will travel to take on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10. Here’s our early pick and prediction for this matchup, with insights from our PR+ metric, which has guided us to a 16-9 record on plays over the last three weeks.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Nov. 3, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 50.5)
Let’s consider this the Phoenix game since it’s two teams trying to rise from the ashes of their start to the season to compete for a playoff spot. The Los Angeles Rams are in a better position, sitting at 4-4 after winning three straight. They have the 13th-ranked offense and 20th-ranked defense but have also played the third-hardest schedule.
The Dolphins are a little harder to figure out because their splits are so wide offensively this season. With Tua starting, Miami is a top-10 offense; without him, the Dolphins were in the bottom three.
The bigger concern is that Miami’s defense has struggled the last two weeks, ultimately costing them games, despite two promising offensive performances.
The issue right now is whether you trust the Dolphins to close out a game. They’ve fallen short in the past two weeks, while the Rams have been very good in clutch spots recently, coming out with three relatively tight wins.
Los Angeles being three-point favorites is right where this game should sit, so there’s no play here. The total is also very high and right in the zone that our projections place it.
Prediction: Rams 27, Dolphins 24
Pick: Pass
Dolphins at Rams Game Stats and Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Miami’s offensive 51.9% offensive success rate over the past two weeks (Weeks 1-7: 36.7%).
QB: Since returning, Tua Tagovailoa has completed 46-of-57 passes when not pressured (80.7%).
Offense: Miami is being blitzed on only 13.9% of dropbacks. The Bengals at 17% are the only other offense under 18.6% this season.
Defense: The Dolphins are forcing just 0.75 turnovers per game, tied with the Cowboys for the fourth-fewest through nine weeks.
Fantasy: If you extend De’Von Achane’s numbers from four Tagovailoa games for a 17-game season: 2,266 yards and 21 touchdowns.
Betting: Under tickets have cashed in five of Miami’s past six road games played in primetime.
Los Angeles Rams
Team: In 2023, the Rams lost three straight games before their bye and won seven of eight following the week off. This season, they were 1-4 before their bye and have won all three games since.
QB: Puka Nacua got ejected late in the first half, which impacted his QB in a major way. In Week 9, Matthew Stafford completed just two-of-10 third down passes – in Weeks 1-8, he owned a 59.2% completion rate on third downs.
Offense: Over the past two weeks, 76.7% of Los Angeles’ yards have come through the air (Weeks 3-7: 62.6%).
Defense: The Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pressure rate this season (38.8%) despite blitzing just 25.4% of the time (league average: 25.8%).
Fantasy: Our game is driven by touchdowns, and Kyren Williams, while great at converting, isn’t immune to that. He has consecutive games without a rushing score (rushing TD in nine straight prior) and doesn’t have a rush, gaining more than 17 yards in seven of eight.
Betting: Unders are 10-3 (76.9%) in the Rams last 13 primetime games.