The New England Patriots and Drake Maye hit the road to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears, who have dropped two straight. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of November 4, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
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New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-7, 39.5)
The Chicago Bears’ pattern in 2024 has been to be excellent against bad teams and then struggle against those that are average or better. Therefore, they will be pleased to get a chance to face one of the worst teams in the league, the New England Patriots, as they try to recover from a two-game losing streak.
Despite their recent win over the New York Jets, this Patriots team is not good. Although Drake Maye does give them a different spark that has made them more fun to watch.
New England still ranks 31st in our PR+, with the 31st-ranked offense and the 30th-ranked defense. That combination is hard to overcome, especially when facing a top-five defense that has done well this season against young quarterbacks.
Taking the Bears by seven points is scary, given they have only scored 24 points in the last two weeks. However, they have shown the ability to blow bad teams out, scoring 71 combined points against the Carolina Panthers and JacksonvilleJaguars while allowing just 26.
Taking the Bears at home is the play here, but the total is off-limits, as Chicago has shown they can put up points against bad defenses.
Prediction: Bears 27, Patriots 17
Pick: Bears -7
Patriots at Bears Game Stats and Insights
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots are averaging 264.8 yards of offense per game, the lowest mark in the NFL this season and the sixth-worst through nine weeks over the past decade (every team in the AFC East has a season represented in that bottom-6).
QB: Players in the 2000s with multiple efforts of 30 passes, 200 pass yards, and 35 rushing yards within their first five career games – Maye (2024), Gardner Minshew (2019), and Robert Griffin III (2012).
Offense: The Patriots allow pressure without being blitzed on 37.8% of dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league.
Defense: The Patriots average just 1.78 sacks per game, ranking them 29th in the NFL (the Bears rank ninth: 2.88 per game).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson has scored four times over the past two weeks despite none of his 30 carries gaining more than seven yards over that stretch.
Betting: Since 2009, the Patriots are just 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%) when traveling to face a rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears
Team: Chicago is 3-0 at home (wins over the Titans, Rams, and Panthers), 1-0 in neutral spots (Jaguars in London), and 0-4 on the road (Texans, Colts, Commanders, and Cardinals).
QB: Two steps forward, two steps back. After Caleb Williams completed six-of-seven deep passes in Weeks 5-6, he is just two-of-16 when stretching the field in his two games since (15-plus air yards).
Offense: The Bears have reached the red zone on just 22.5% of their drives this season, ranking them 28th in the league.
Defense: The Bears have the third-best red zone defense in the NFL (40.9% touchdown rate, tops in the NFC).
Fantasy: D’Andre Swift has at least four catches or a 35-plus yard gain in five straight games.
Betting: The Bears have covered seven straight home games (overs have cashed in five of their past six at home).