On Monday night, the 7-0 Kansas City Chiefs will host the 4-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arrowhead Stadium. Patrick Mahomes and Co. will look to continue their undefeated season against the Bucs, who lead the league in passing touchdowns per game (2.6) and have the NFL‘s third-highest-scoring offense (29.4).
While both of these teams have shown that they can put up points in bunches, they are each missing key weapons on offense, and severe weather could impact this game. Let’s examine the latest weather report ahead of this “Monday Night Football” matchup.
Weather Report for Chiefs-Bucs MNF Showdown
Kansas City has been dealing with ongoing storms, and it is already pouring at Arrowhead Stadium several hours before kickoff.
There’s a 45% chance of rain from 8 p.m. ET to 9 p.m. ET and a 40% chance of rain from 9 p.m. ET to 10 p.m. ET. The storm is supposed to clear up around 10 p.m. ET.
If this forecast is accurate, the severe weather should mainly affect the first half of tonight’s “Monday Night Football” game.
Several Missouri counties are under a flash flood warning due to more than six inches of rain, which is expected to continue over the next few hours. Expect extended periods of rain throughout tonight’s game, and the wind could also be an issue.
No matter the weather, Chiefs Kingdom shows up ❤️ pic.twitter.com/TV4oBpJF4I
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 5, 2024
This could impact both passing attacks, which are already limited since the Chiefs are missing Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown while the Bucs are missing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Both offenses might try to focus on running the ball, particularly in the first half. The Bucs average the 10th-most rushing yards per game (131) with their three-headed monster of Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, and Sean Tucker, while the Chiefs’ 122.1 rushing yards per game ranks 13th-best in the league.
It’s worth noting that Kansas City has the NFL’s third-best run defense, allowing just 82.3 rushing yards per game. Tampa Bay’s run defense ranks 19th in the league, allowing 131.6 rushing yards per contest.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Preview and Prediction
According to TruMedia, Mahomes ranks 13th of 36 quarterbacks with over 100 attempts in EPA per dropback. We are so used to Mahomes playing otherworldly that a season where he is only above average feels like the sky is falling. On top of that, the offense as a whole ranks eighth in EPA.
The only real issue with this Chiefs’ offense is the lack of explosiveness. They are ranked 24th in plays of 10 or more yards and 20th in plays of 20 or more yards.
As we began to see a couple of years ago, Mahomes’ deep ball struck fear into opposing defenses. Looking at how that affects this season, the Chiefs have faced the eighth-most plays against MOFO (middle of the field open) and the 23rd-most plays against MOFC (middle of the field closed) looks. Unfortunately for opposing defenses, the Chiefs are OK with this.
PFF charts Mahomes as having the lowest average depth of target in the league at just 6.4 yards. To have a successful offense that lacks explosive plays, you need to be consistent from down to down. The Chiefs are the definition of this, ranking first in the league in successful play rate and fourth in excel rate.
PFN+ Metrics show that the Chiefs and Buccaneers might be more evenly matched than you think, except Kansas City has the edge on the defensive side of the ball 🏈 pic.twitter.com/RsY9NvdJqx
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 5, 2024
Defensively, the Bucs rank 12th in generating pressure and blitz at the third-highest rate in the league. The Chiefs have surprisingly struggled against the blitz, ranking 20th in EPA when being blitzed. Luckily, there is still historical precedent that has scared teams from blitzing at a high rate, as the Chiefs have been blitzed 29th-most in the NFL. Overall, the Bucs’ pass defense has struggled the most, especially in giving up explosive plays.
Tampa has given up the fourth-most passes of 10 or more yards and the fifth-most passes of 20 or more yards. If there was ever a game for the Chiefs to finally land some explosive plays, it’s this one.
It is hard to get a read on what the Tampa offense will look like with another week of no Evans or Godwin. The Bucs passed the ball 50 times last week, but this was because they only spent 1.09% of their plays in a positive game-script situation (win probability of more than 70%). The Falcons only pressured Baker Mayfield on 11.8% (the lowest rate in the league is 22.4%, for context) of his dropbacks.
The Chiefs do not have the same issues as the Falcons when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. In fact, the Chiefs rank fourth in the league in pressure generated and seventh in blitz percentage. Both have not been problematic for the Bucs in the past, but it could prove to be troubling when they don’t have a wide receiver to win quickly or throw it up to.
Pair this with the fact that Steve Spagnuolo is in his bag as a play-caller, and you can start to understand why the Chiefs have the sixth-best defensive EPA and are undefeated to start their season. To properly understand just how well Spagnuolo is doing, I used Shannon entropy to evaluate how predictable each defense is based on the number of times they are running each type of coverage.
The Chiefs are No. 1, meaning they have the most unpredictable defense. It’ll be very difficult for the Bucs to win this game with a defense that hasn’t performed well and a banged-up offense.