The NFL is constantly zigging and zagging, whether that be because of injuries or just the changing tides of teams’ fortunes. Whatever the reason — upsets and results that seemingly confound the ideas we had previously — it makes it tough to pick games consistently.
Over the past three weeks, our PR+ metic has helped us navigate the choppy waters, going 16-9 on plays. We don’t tend to formally lock those picks in until later in the week, but in our early NFL picks and predictions, we can look at where things are leaning as of Monday morning ahead of Week 10.
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NFL Week 10 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
- Moneyline: Bengals +215; Ravens -265
- Total: 52.5
The Baltimore Ravens put down a marker in Week 9, while the Cincinnati Bengals continued their recent pattern of beating lesser teams. There is still a gulf between these two in terms of our PR+ metric, with the Ravens being a top-five team and the Bengals sitting in the bottom half.
Lamar Jackson is on an MVP pace, and while Joe Burrow has impressed, he’s lacked the consistency of Jackson this season.
Here are our QB+ grades through the early slate of games in Week 9 ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/CYPMtkxmYr
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 3, 2024
The last time these two met, we saw an offensive explosion, and that could be the case once again.
Both defenses rank outside the top 20, while both offenses are in the top 10. The Ravens have the edge on both offense and defense, so they would be the play here straight up.
The problem with the spread is that six points are a lot in a potential shootout, and we could see a late cover. Therefore, the plays here are to take the Ravens ML in a parlay with the total to go over.
Prediction: Ravens 34, Bengals 28
Pick: Over 52.5 and Ravens ML as part of a parlay
New York Giants (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Giants -225; Panthers +185
- Total: 42.5
These teams are coming off contrasting results against division rivals, with the Carolina Panthers getting a tight win and the New York Giants just getting run out of it in the fourth quarter.
The Giants are ranked higher in terms of our PR+ metric, but both teams are in the bottom quarter of the rankings, making this a tough game to call, especially when having to lay 4.5 points with New York.
Both offenses have struggled, with the Giants ranking 30th and the Panthers 26th. Meanwhile, New York’s defense is the best unit on the field, ranking 15th compared to Carolina in last. That should give the Giants an advantage against a young Panthers offense that has blown hot and cold.
I don’t love laying 4.5 points with New York and will probably ultimately pass on betting on this game because I don’t trust either side of it. The Panthers offense under Bryce Young is improved in his second stint as the starter, but the bar was extremely low at the start of the season. It is hard to know what to do with a game that has the added complication of being played over in Germany.
Prediction: Giants 23, Panthers 20
Pick: Pass
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Steelers +114; Commanders -135
- Total: 45
The Pittsburgh Steelers (13th) and Washington Commanders (11th) are fairly even in terms of their overall PR+ standings. Both have played schedules that rank among the 10 easiest in the league to this point, but that’s where the similarities end.
The Steelers rank sixth on defense and second on special teams but 22nd on offense. In contrast, the Commanders are second on offense, 16th on special teams, and 23rd on defense.
If this game were being played in Pittsburgh, it would make sense to lean towards the superiority of its defense, but it being in Washington neutralizes that somewhat.
What this could ultimately come down to is that the Commanders are a middling team when it comes to red-zone offense but a poor team defending it. Meanwhile, the Steelers are below-average offensively in the red zone but excellent defensively. That gives them enough advantage that I lean toward them, yet I’m passing on an official play.
Prediction: Steelers 23, Commanders 22
Pick: Pass
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-7)
- Moneyline: Patriots +280; Bears -355
- Total: 39.5
The Chicago Bears’ pattern in 2024 has been to be excellent against bad teams and then struggle against those that are average or better. Therefore, they will be pleased to get a chance to face one of the worst teams in the league, the New England Patriots, as they try to recover from a two-game losing streak.
Despite their recent win over the New York Jets, this Patriots team is not good. Although Drake Maye does give them a different spark that has made them more fun to watch.
New England still ranks 31st in our PR+, with the 31st-ranked offense and the 30th-ranked defense. That combination is hard to overcome, especially when facing a top-five defense that has done well this season against young quarterbacks.
Taking the Bears by seven points is scary, given they have only scored 24 points in the last two weeks. However, they have shown the ability to blow bad teams out, scoring 71 combined points against the Carolina Panthers and JacksonvilleJaguars while allowing just 26.
Taking the Bears at home is the play here, but the total is off-limits, as Chicago has shown they can put up points against bad defenses.
Prediction: Bears 27, Patriots 17
Pick: Bears -7
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at New Orleans Saints
- Moneyline: Falcons -170; Saints +142
- Total: 48
Ranking 20th in our PR+ metric, the Atlanta Falcons are the least convincing of the four NFC division leaders right now, despite five wins in their last six games. Even their win over the Dallas Cowboys wasn’t that dominant, with our internal metrics suggesting they were lucky to come out on top based on the underlying numbers.
Entering Week 10, the Falcons have been very reliant on their offense, which ranks ninth, while their defense and special teams are both in the bottom 10.
Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are tough to judge because they have a very middling team overall but are on a seven-game losing skid, and injuries are starting to pile up.
Both teams could be without their best wide receiver in this game. If that’s the case, scoring could be tough.
The problem is that playing the under on two bottom-half defenses (one ranking 29th) is a big no-no. This game is likely to be close, but the Falcons should have too much for this version of the Saints. I just struggle to put my money on Atlanta on the road right now.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Saints 20
Pick: Pass
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Broncos +350; Chiefs -455
- Total: 42
The Denver Broncos defense came crashing back down to earth against the Ravens, but that offense will make even the best defenses look stupid from time to time. The Kansas City Chiefs offense is good, but it’s not in the same stratosphere as Baltimore right now, so the Broncos should have more success this week. The problem for Denver is that its offense cannot go toe-to-toe if this game starts to get high scoring.
The Chiefs are the clear favorite, but laying 9.5 points on a team that has only won two games this season by more than a single score doesn’t fill me with confidence. Kansas City has yet to look convincing on either side of the ball, despite the metrics saying they are a top-12 group in both aspects.
I’m looking to attack this game by teasing the Chiefs down as close to three points as I am willing to go with the odds. That teaser will most likely settle in the 3.5-to-4-point region, which, when paired with the Ravens’ ML, could make for an intriguing combo backing two of the best three AFC teams.
Prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 17
Pick: Chiefs -3.5 or -4 in a teaser
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Moneyline: 49ers -245; Buccaneers +200
- Total: 48.5
Everything about our numbers entering Monday Night Football screams that this Tampa Bay Buccaneers team is a good unit that has faced a brutal schedule and some tough injury luck.
Entering tonight’s game, they are above the San Francisco 49ers in PR+, thanks to their offense, which ranks third and is carrying their 25th-ranked defense. That has resulted in the Buccaneers going 3-2 this season when scoring 30 points.
Despite scoring 30+ points in a season where it's almost a guaranteed win (52-5 record), the Buccaneers, Bengals, and Colts have found themselves on the losing side more often.
Is it bad luck, or is their defense to blame? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/U3M5BE0Fuv
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 3, 2024
Tampa Bay’s offense is hobbled by injuries, yet still scored 26 points in Week 8. Unfortunately, the defense could be vulnerable to a 49ers team that might be getting Christian McCaffrey back this week. Despite numerous injuries, San Francisco’s offense still ranks 10th and has scored 30 points on four occasions this season.
This looks set to be the end of a tough run for the Buccaneers, who will have to regroup during their bye week. The 49ers should be too much for the Bucs in this game, but it could come down to the wire. The odds of this going over are better than the odds of San Francisco covering 5.5 points on the road, so I’m taking the over.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Buccaneers 24
Pick: Over 48.5
Buffalo Bills (-5) at Indianapolis Colts
- Moneyline: Bills -225; Colts +185
- Total: 47
The Buffalo Bills just snuck past the Miami Dolphins in Week 9, and their frailties against competitive teams showed up once again. Our PR+ metric suggests that Miami is worse than the Indianapolis Colts, but the Tua Tagovailoa version of the Dolphins is a better team than the Colts. Thus, the Bills should be able to get back to winning comfortably as they flex their muscles of a fifth-ranked offense.
The Colts put up a good fight against the Vikings, but if Minnesota’s offense had been even half-competent, that game could easily have been a blowout. Indianapolis ranks outside the top 20 on both offense and defense, but the Colts have played the eighth-hardest schedule to this point, which makes them a wild card going forward.
Assuming they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, the Bills should be too much for the Colts in this matchup. They have an edge on both sides of the ball; even being on the road shouldn’t be enough to level the playing field.
Prediction: Bills 27, Colts 17
Pick: Bills -5
Minnesota Vikings (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Moneyline: Vikings -218; Jaguars +180
- Total: 47
The Minnesota Vikings were far from convincing on Sunday Night Football, but they ultimately won despite their offensive missteps. The underlying metrics still tell us that this is a top-five team that is just having a tough few games coming out of the bye.
In contrast, the Jaguars are a team that cannot get out of its own way week in and week out.
The Vikings have the edge offensively and defensively, ranking 12th and third compared to 15th and 31st, respectively. Minnesota has also faced the fifth-hardest schedule to this point, while Jacksonville has had the 15th-toughest.
All the metrics tell us to take the Vikings here, but the eye test in recent weeks will rightly make people nervous with the way the offensive line is playing.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Jaguars 20
Pick: Vikings -5
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
- Moneyline: Titans +330; Chargers -425
- Total: 38
The Los Angeles Chargers haven’t looked like the most convincing 5-3 team in the league, but that is often the case for a team that is carried by its defense. LA’s defense ranks first this year, yet the offense is all the way down in 27th. Complicating matters slightly is that the Chargers have played the seventh-easiest schedule to this point, so we don’t truly know how good they are right now.
What we do know is that the Tennessee Titans are worse in all three areas of the game, ranking 29th on offense and 12th on defense. They have played the ninth-hardest schedule, but that doesn’t make a huge difference when you look at the Titans’ performances against the Patriots and Colts.
The thought of backing the Chargers’ offense to score enough points to cover an 8.5-point line is scary, but they’ve won by more than 10 four times this season when facing lesser teams. Will Levis could be back for Tennessee, which only enhances the urge to take Los Angeles laying the points this week.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Titans 13
Pick: Chargers -8.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Eagles -310; Cowboys +250
- Total: 44.5
The Philadelphia Eagles continue to confound and confuse onlookers this year as they bumble their way through one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. Some weeks, Philadelphia looks incredible, but then the Eagles do head-scratching things, and their head coach makes a baffling decision.
They are still the 14th-best offense and the ninth-best defense this season, but the Eagles’ strength of schedule means they are only 14th in PR+. The good news for Philadelphia is that the Dallas Cowboys are even more confounding and confusing than they are.
Dallas ranks 24th overall with the 20th-ranked offense and 26th-ranked defense. The Cowboys have played a much harder schedule (sixth-toughest), so there is some mitigation, but this is a game the Eagles should win if they don’t do something to cost themselves.
Dallas is 0-3 at home this season and has struggled mightily in all three. And with an injury concern for Dak Prescott, it’s impossible to back them. If Prescott ends up missing time, this line could move dramatically to the Eagles, so now is the time to back them.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Cowboys 17
Pick: Eagles -6.5
New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (-1)
- Moneyline: Jets -102; Cardinals -118
- Total: 45.5
This is a fascinating matchup between two teams that have been slightly undervalued for most of the season. The Arizona Cardinals are 5-4, winning two games in blowout fashion and the other three by a combined four points.
The Jets, meanwhile, are 3-6 but have lost four games by one score or less. Both teams are just inside the top 10 of our PR+, making for a fascinating clash between them.
The Jets’ strength has been their defense, which ranks fifth on the season after getting back on track last week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have leaned on their seventh-ranked offense while facing the hardest schedule to this point.
With a strong offense meeting a strong defense, this game is too close to call. In those types of matchups, I tend to lean toward the defense. However, there’s no clear data here that suggests this should be a play either way. Motivation might be key, and the Jets are in “can’t lose” territory, which could make the difference in the end.
Prediction: Jets 23, Cardinals 20
Pick: Pass
Detroit Lions (-4.5) at Houston Texans
- Moneyline: Lions -218; Texans +180
- Total: 48.5
The Houston Texans haven’t been as good as their 6-3 record would indicate, ranking 23rd on offense and 10th on defense this year. The Texans have also played just the 19th-toughest schedule to date, so they haven’t been that heavily tested.
In contrast, the Detroit Lions are fourth offensively and seventh defensively and are the clearly superior team of these two — 4.5 points doesn’t adequately reflect that, even with the Texans at home.
This is an easy play to take the Lions laying the points, but the total is a no-play as it is right in the area where we would project this game to finish.
Prediction: Lions 27, Texans 20
Pick: Lions -4.5
Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
- Moneyline: Dolphins +120; Rams -142
- Total: 50.5
Let’s consider this the Phoenix game since it’s two teams trying to rise from the ashes of their start to the season to compete for a playoff spot. The Los Angeles Rams are in a better position, sitting at 4-4 after winning three straight. They have the 13th-ranked offense and 20th-ranked defense but have also played the third-hardest schedule.
The Dolphins are a little harder to figure out because their splits are so wide offensively this season. With Tua starting, Miami is a top-10 offense; without him, the Dolphins were in the bottom three.
The bigger concern is that Miami’s defense has struggled the last two weeks, ultimately costing them games, despite two promising offensive performances.
The issue right now is whether you trust the Dolphins to close out a game. They’ve fallen short in the past two weeks, while the Rams have been very good in clutch spots recently, coming out with three relatively tight wins.
Los Angeles being three-point favorites is right where this game should sit, so there’s no play here. The total is also very high and right in the zone that our projections place it.
Prediction: Rams 27, Dolphins 24
Pick: Pass