The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. Here are our betting picks and predictions for this matchup from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 45.5)
Katz: Hunt is now set to start his fifth game for the Kansas City Chiefs. His yardage totals so far: 85, 117, 83, and 63. He’s gone over this number in three out of four games. So, why are we going under?
Hunt’s efficiency has declined in every game this season. He averaged 4.93 yards per carry in his debut. That then dropped to 3.78, 3.55, and 2.81.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have struggled against the run lately, but this is still a pass-funnel defense. This is the type of game where Patrick Mahomes may actually air it out.
Hunt is minimally involved in the passing game. He has a total of nine receiving yards in his past two contests. If the Chiefs do go pass-heavy, Hunt may not see the volume he needs to have any chance of hitting this number.
It’s taken Hunt 20+ carries to do what he’s done recently (59 and 78 yards on the ground the past two weeks). If that drops to only 15-17 carries, he shouldn’t come close to 80 scrimmage yards.
Pick: Kareem Hunt under 78.5 scrimmage yards
Soppe: At this point, the only thing scarier than betting on the Chiefs to lose is asking them to win by a significant margin (five of seven wins have come by seven or fewer points this season). So why not bet into our comfort zone?
In his career, Mahomes has won but failed to cover 28.6% of prime-time games. That’s an absurdly high rate, and the thought process there is that we get an inflated number due to the public hammering the face of the league even more than normal in an island spot.
I’m out on Baker Mayfield for fantasy football purposes, but the fact that he was able to earn a B in our QB+ metric last weekend without either of his star receivers was impressive. We are coming upon the one-year anniversary of the last time the Chiefs put 30 points on the board; if they are struggling to get past the mid-20s on Monday night, covering a number like this is going to be difficult.
SGP: Chiefs moneyline, Buccaneers +9.5
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: This is the first of a seven-game stretch that sees Tampa Bay play five road games.
QB: Baker Mayfield has thrown for 325 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games – the last player with a four-game streak was Aaron Rodgers bridging the 2012-13 seasons.
Offense: The Bucs are averaging 2.57 points per drive, pacing for their second most this millennium (other: 2020, Super Bowl champions).
Defense: Over the past two weeks (BAL and ATL), Tampa Bay has allowed 3.6 points per drive (Weeks 1-6: 2.0).
Fantasy: We spent a lot of time last week trying to pin the tail on the Buccaneer WR most likely to step up when it proved to be the existing pieces—against the Falcons, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, and Rachaad White accounted for 48.2% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards and 56.8% of their receptions.
Betting: Tampa Bay is 4-16 ATS (20%) over their past 20 primetime games (0-2 this season in a pair of shootouts – 36-30 loss to the Falcons in Week 5 and a 41-31 loss to the Ravens in Week 7).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: This isn’t the high-flying offense we want it to be, but there is an offensive floor that comes with Patrick Mahomes, and that’s enough—this team hasn’t lost a game in which they’ve scored over 20 points since December 4, 2022 (at Bengals).
QB: Mahomes doesn’t have a completion that traveled 20 yards in the air in October.
Offense: The Chiefs averaged 31.1 points per game in their 2022 wins. That number dropped to 25.0 last season and is even lower in their undefeated start this season (24.7).
Defense: They proved willing to ramp up the aggression last week in Vegas if they identify it as a weakness of their opponent – 47.1% blitz rate after checking in under 28% in each of their three games prior.
Fantasy: Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games and has a lower pass touchdown rate than Will Levis this season.
Betting: Mahomes has covered all three of his primetime games this season (Ravens, Falcons, and Saints) after covering just three of his most recent 11 regular season primetime games entering 2024.