The Minnesota Vikings will face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Sam Darnold, QB
Remember when Derek Carr looked like the league MVP and the Saints were on a historic pace? I don’t want to say that Minnesota’s house of cards could face a similar fate, but …
First quarter, Week 8:
- 100% completion percentage
- 12.1 yards per pass
- 12.6 fantasy points
Most recent 11 quarters otherwise:
- 61.3% completion percentage
- 7.7 yards per pass
- 2.4 fantasy points per quarter
Weeks 1-4:
- 68.9% completion percentage
- 8.8 yards per pass
- 4.9 fantasy points per quarter
Darnold’s status as a viable option in one-QB formats appears to be on thin ice. However, if you have to go back to him, you could do worse than this matchup, at home, on extended rest.
Minnesota heads to Jacksonville in Week 10, making this a good bounce-back spot, but Darnold is outranked outside of my starting tier this week. I need to see him rekindle the magic before betting on it.
Aaron Jones, RB
Is Aaron Jones what Najee Harris has been for years? That is a reasonable floor with a capped ceiling and inconsistent inefficiency in an offense that hovers around the league average.
Jones accounted for every single Vikings RB carry in the Week 8 loss to the Rams, racking up over 20 touches for the third time in five games. That said, it was his third game this season without a 10-yard carry and fifth time in six weeks without a rushing touchdown.
- Weeks 1-3: 9.5% of carries have failed to gain yardage
- Since: 19.4% of carries have failed to gain yardage
Jones showed well in his team debut against the Giants, but since then, his boom/bust rate (percentage of carries gaining at least 10 yards minus percentage of carries failing to gain yardage) in the seven weeks since is -8.9%.
- Harris (2021-23): -8.6% boom/bust rate
Jones has given us some peaks (three RB1 finishes) and valleys (two finishes outside of the top 25 at the position). I think we see a little more stability moving forward in the middle of those two outcomes. This matchup doesn’t scare me, and his versatility helps create a floor that lands him as a middling RB2, a ranking that I think will be on the high end of expectations as we come down the stretch of the fantasy regular season.
Jordan Addison, WR
Is Addison that much different than Darius Slayton at this point? The pedigree is on a different level, but when it comes to their roles in 2024, they are deep threats (Addison aDOT: 17.9) that are largely involved when their WR1 is healthy. If Justin Jefferson were to get hurt, I’d go to Addison with similar excitement as I did with Slayton sans Malik Nabers. Without that, we aren’t looking at a roster-worthy player, let alone a Flex option.
Addison has been on the field for over 84% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps in three straight games, and he hasn’t finished as a top-50 producer at the position in any of those contests. If Sam Darnold is turning into a pumpkin, it’s not going to cost Jefferson looks and T.J. Hockenson might be pumpkin-proof when he returns — Addison is the one getting squeezed.
Thanks to a rookie season with an elevated touchdown rate, Addison can remain rostered. But, for me, he’s closer to a lineup casualty than a legitimate Flex option.
Justin Jefferson, WR
In the first quarter against the Rams on Thursday night, Jefferson hauled in all five of his targets for 68 yards (his teammates had just three catches), but it was Trent Sherfield Sr. and Josh Oliver with the scores. Annoying, but it happens. You take that elite usage and efficiency from Jefferson and understand that you are fortunate enough to have the best receiver in the sport on your roster.
Jefferson submitted a bid for the catch of the year with a bobbling, toe-drag reception, the icing on the cake as he continued his impressive season-opening streak that has seen him clear 90 receiving yards or score every time he’s taken the field.
Brian Thomas Jr. and Nico Collins were heavily featured receivers earlier this season against Indianapolis — they both cleared 115 receiving yards while leaving a few plays on the field. Jefferson is matchup-proof, and when facing a vulnerable defense, he could well take over this slate.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
We’ve been teased with Hockenson’s (knee) return in consecutive weeks. If we finally get it on Sunday night, he should be locked into your lineup given recent tight ends’ performances against the Colts …
- Week 4, Pat Freiermuth: Five catches for 57 yards and a TD
- Week 5, Brenton Strange: Caught all four targets and a TD
- Week 7, Jonnu Smith: Caught all seven targets for 96 yards and a TD
I don’t think defensive numbers against tight ends are overly sticky, but those are interesting notes as we take a look at a Vikings offense that lacks a secondary pass catcher next to Justin Jefferson. It didn’t take Hockenson any time to get rolling last season (he was a top-six tight end in each of Minnesota’s three games, catching 23 passes across those contests).
While it stands to reason that his snaps could be capped in this spot, that didn’t stop the Rams from weighing down Puka Nacua in his return last week. Hockenson is a top-10 tight end for me right now — and that’s conservative with his status still unofficial.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Insights
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts are 4-4 this season, with five games decided by a field goal or less (2-3 in those games).
QB: Pressure is one thing; seeing ghosts is another – Richardson went 6-of-20 for 78 yards and an interception against the Texans when not pressured.
Offense: The Colts gained 21.2 yards per drive in the Week 7 win against the Dolphins, their lowest rate of the season. In the loss to the Texans on Sunday, that number was 21.0.
Defense: In Weeks 1-5, the Colts forced a punt on 23.6% of drives, a rate that has spiked to 48.6% since.
Fantasy: Anthony Richardson hit Josh Downs for a 69-yard touchdown pass of the season – his third of 50-plus yards.
Betting: Indianapolis has covered eight of their past 10 road primetime games (this is their first game since Week 13, 2022).
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have played just three true road games this season – after this week, they go on the road for three straight (Jaguars, Titans, and Bears).
QB: Sam Darnold posted his highest in-pocket passer rating of the season on Thursday night (134.0, he’s been over 106.0 in six of seven games.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Minnesota averaged 6.5 yards per play on first down, a rate that is down to 4.8 since.
Defense: The Vikings posted their highest pressure rate of the season in Week 7 against the Lions (58.6%) but couldn’t make Matthew Stafford uncomfortable in Week 8 (11.8%, 18 percentage points below their previous season low).
Fantasy: Against the Rams on Thursday night, Sam Darnold started hot and then struggled – 67.5% of his fantasy points as a passer were scored on Minnesota’s first two drives.
Betting: Since 2020, 74.4% of Vikings games played after Halloween have gone over the total (29-10-1, league average: 48.4%).
Betting: The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games played on extended rest.