The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Cleveland Browns in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chargers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert, QB
Herbert is coming off his first top-15 fantasy finish of the season, though that performance (279 yards and two touchdowns) came against a Saints defense that is trending toward one of the worst in the league.
The Browns aren’t the defensive powerhouse that they have been in the past, but they’ve shown signs of life lately and lead the league in pressure rate. Herbert’s completion rate when under duress this season is trending toward a career low. And with volume always a concern (26th in pass rate over expectation), any efficiency concerns are damning for his fantasy stock.
Herbert is a better NFL QB than a fantasy asset in this system, and I don’t see that changing this week or for the remainder of 2024.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
I aim to inform, and I found this list ultra-interesting in our quest to predict the future. Here are the top seven producers at the running back position in percentage of points relative to expectations since Week 3:
1. Jahymr Gibbs: +71.6%
2. Derrick Henry: +61.6%
3. James Cook: +39.4%
4. Joe Mixon: +31.1%
5. Bijan Robinson: +27.9%
6. Kenneth Walker III: +23.6%
7. Tyrone Tracy Jr.: 22.8%
And the bottom seven over that stretch:
26. Zack Moss: -12.3%
27. Alexander Mattison: -12.6%
28. Breece Hall: -13.8%
29. Jordan Mason: -14%
30. Alvin Kamara: -15.6%
31. Javonte Williams: -16.2%
32. J.K. Dobbins: -17.5%
Dobbins’ season numbers still look fine, but those are largely the result of those two monster weeks to open the season (122.1% over expectation). This is a low-volume offense, and those situations typically result in touchdowns to pay off fantasy managers.
Dobbins was able to help you out with a short score in Week 8, but that’s not going to be the norm for a team that ranks 31st in the percentage of drives that reach the opponents’ 20-yard line (20.8%, only the Browns have been worse).
The Ravens were able to run against the Browns last season — because they are the Ravens. The two weeks before, Cleveland was the proud owner of the second-best run defense by success rate, a trend that is more than enough to have me second-guessing Dobbins’ stock this weekend.
Dobbins sits at No. 25 in my current running back rankings, as low as I can reasonably put a featured back.
Ladd McConkey, WR
McConkey played through a hip injury last week to author the best game of his young career (6-111-2) against the Saints, and he has an NFL feel about him as he operates out of the slot.
This offense as a whole may be boring, but Justin Herbert is an above-average QB and one that is capable of elevating talent; so, yeah, I’m buying what this rookie is selling. He has earned at least six targets in six of seven games this season and gets the pleasure of facing a defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed after the catch per reception when opponents target the slot.
A repeat of Week 8’s explosion is unlikely, but another top-30 finish is more than reasonable, and that’s where I have him ranked: as a strong Flex option in PPR formats.
Quentin Johnston, WR
Note: Johnston was limited on Wednesday before logging a full practice on Thursday — he appears ready to return to the field.
The ankle injury continues to nag at Johnston, resulting in another DNP last week. He wasn’t ruled out until Sunday, but that doesn’t matter to me — we are talking about a fringe receiver on a low-octane offense. Not only do I need him practicing in full, I need glowing reports out of Los Angeles to believe this second-year receiver is even rosterable let alone in the mix for a starting spot in my lineup.
We remember the few splash plays from September because we were worried about having to eat our words in burying him after a dreadful rookie season. But those are about his only highlights to date. In his five games played, he has one top-35 finish this season and has seen 55.5% of his production come on touchdown receptions.
I don’t love the reliance on scoring for anyone, but I can overlook it in an explosive offense. There are a lot of adjectives to describe this Bolts offense, but let’s stick with “not explosive” as a descriptor to keep me employed and you reading this novel to your children as a bedtime story.
What? You’re saying that’s not how you use these 25,000+ words each week? I’m not a parent, but that feels inefficient. You are assured they will be bored to sleep by the time you reach this portion of the proceedings (trust me, my wife is a full-grown woman and was snoring by the time I got to my well-thought-out stance on Demarcus Robinson) and doing your Week 9 homework at the same time. Sounds like A+ parenting to me!
Anyway, this is the rare chance to make fantasy simple — it’s not an absolutely perfect spot for Johnston (health or matchup), so there is no reason to whisper his name again this week. Maybe he’s worth a stash with the Bengals and Ravens coming up in Weeks 11-12 (Marvin Harrison Jr. Malik Nabers, Mike Evans, Drake London, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Brian Thomas Jr., and Chris Olave all have byes over that stretch), but that’s as far as I’m willing to go.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns Insights
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: We still haven’t seen 40 total points scored in a Charger game this season (the Browns aren’t exactly explosive on either side of the ball, but even they’ve seen 40 points hit three times this season)
QB: Over the past two weeks, Justin Herbert is 20-of-24 for 328 yards and a touchdown when throwing out of play-action.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, the Bolts averaged 1.5 points per drive. In the past three weeks, however, that number has spiked to 2.0 (up 33.3%).
Defense: Los Angeles is the only team in the league that can say they’ve recovered as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed (three).
Fantasy: This is a low-volume offense, and those situations typically result in touchdowns to pay off fantasy managers – J.K. Dobbins was able to help you out with a short score, but that’s not going to be the norm for a team that ranks 31st in percentage of drives that reach the opponents’ 20-yard line (20.8%, only the Browns have been worse).
Betting: Unders are 5-1 in the last six Justin Herbert starts in which the Chargers have been a road favorite.
Cleveland Browns
Team: Cleveland leads the league in play-action rate this season (19.4%), which they essentially mirrored in Jameis Winston’s first start (19.7%).
QB: Winston went 8-11 when throwing deep downfield (15-plus air yards) on Sunday against the Ravens, totaling 167 yards and two touchdowns.
Offense: The Browns completed just 19.2% of their third downs through Week 6. Against the Bengals in Week 7, they were eight-of-19 (42.1%) and, in the upset win over the Ravens on Sunday, eight-of-15 (53.3%).
Defense: Cleveland leads the NFL in pressure rate this season (42.7%) and made Lamar Jackson uncomfortable on 50% of his dropbacks last weekend (the second time this season, they created chaos on at least half of their opponents’ pass attempts.
Fantasy: David Njoku has scored in consecutive weeks and can be used as a weekly option across all formats with confidence as the featured pass catcher in the fourth most pass-oriented offense when inside the red zone.
Betting: Since the beginning of last season, the Browns are 7-2 ATS when playing at home with a total that closes under 40 points (unders are 6-2-1 in those games).