The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Benching Mahomes isn’t something you thought you’d be wrestling with when you drafted him, but every number produced through two months suggests that it’s the right move.
I could weigh you down with facts like “Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games” or “he went through the entire month of October without a completion of 20+ air yards,” but how about the simple fact that Kansas City is undefeated?
The Chiefs don’t need Mahomes to produce fantasy points for you to put ticks in the win column — it really is that simple.
The Bucs aren’t an intimidating defense, and maybe Mahomes will get it rolling under the bright lights on Monday. But we are in the predictions business, and nothing he has done up to this point is deserving of our trust.
Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate (35.4% of dropbacks), and Mahomes is pacing for the second-worst TD rate of his career alone with easily the highest interception rate of his career when opponents bring the heat.
If you’re starting Mahomes, I get it. It’s blind faith, and if you’ve made that bet over his career, you’re doing just fine. For me, he’s behind three rookies this week, and I could make a sound case for playing Matthew Stafford instead. Or even Mahomes’ opposing number in this game if you really want to get frisky.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Hunt has been worthy of our trust in three straight weeks, and unless this offense makes a U-turn, I’d expect that to continue against the fifth-worst yards-per-carry run defense in the league.
My lone complaint is the target rate. Hunt is being handed the ball 12 times for every target, a rate I’d like to see shrink with time. The addition of DeAndre Hopkins might make that something of a pipedream. Without the plus grade in the versatility department, Hunt will struggle to break into my top 12, but he’s a pretty clear start that you can feel good about right now.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
Hopkins pulled down a 13-yard pass on Kansas City’s third play in his debut with the team; that was great to see, but it taught us very little.
I think this week and next will be informative and could prove to be a set of games that you come back to when all is said and done. What role does Hopkins fill in this offense? Do they get creative with him and ask Xavier Worthy to stretch the field, or do they move Worthy around and ask the veteran to make the contested plays he’s done for a decade?
If I roster Hopkins, I want the latter. I’m confident that he can prove to be the most efficient player on those passes in this offense, something I’m not as confident in regarding the shorter targets given Travis Kelce’s presence.
Hopkins was on the field for just 32.4% of the Chiefs snaps last week in the win against the Raiders. I’d expect one more ramp-up week before he’s a full-time player, and that gives me enough pause to rank him as an average Flex option, even in a game against the ninth-worst pass defense in terms of passer rating.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Smith-Schuster sat out Week 8 with a hamstring injury (Andy Reid ruled him out on Monday, indicating that a week of rest was needed). If that wasn’t bad enough, the team brought in DeAndre Hopkins via trade.
In theory, Hopkins eats more into the role of Xavier Worthy, and I think that’s right. But we’ve seen the future Hall of Famer showcase route versatility when asked. That brings in risk for Smith-Schuster, a receiver who needs full slot exposure to pay off.
I’ll want to see him fail before assuming it, but this is a low-octane offense that no longer is going to assign the same size of the pie to Smith-Schuster. With the bye week behind him and receivers falling like flies, this is a rosterable player until proven otherwise — just be prepared for the “otherwise” to occur sooner than later.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Your optimism about Xavier Worthy should be directly tied to what you think DeAndre Hopkins has to offer — and that terrifies me. The rookie has begun to see his role take shape of late, and if not for the acquisition of the veteran playmaker, would have me moving heaven and earth to acquire him.
Worthy has five red-zone touches over his previous three games and has been targeted on over 25% of his routes in consecutive weeks, not bad for a player who hadn’t crossed 18.2% beforehand. Mahomes continues to operate a pretty conservative offensive attack, but he’s beginning to let his metaphorical hair down recently when looking the way of the fastest sprinter in the NFL.
- Weeks 1-4: 26.7% of Worthy’s targets were deep downfield
- Weeks 5-8: 36.4% of Worthy’s targets were deep downfield
So, what’s it going to be? Was Hopkins brought in for his route-running savvy and as a pseudo-Rashee Rice replacement, or was he brought in to further stretch the field and give space for this running game/Travis Kelce to help matriculate the ball down the field?
I lean toward the latter, which has me out on Worthy. However, I will admit that I’m not operating with the utmost confidence in that evaluation because trying to get inside the head of Andy Reid is impossible.
I’m not starting Worthy until I have a better feel for this situation. I will tell you (as long as you pinky promise to not tell my league mates) that I’m going to be watching Hopkins’ usage like a hawk. Not his production, his usage. If he’s lining up in the slot and running six-yard crossing routes on 3rd-and-5, I’m sending an offer to the Worthy owner as fast as possible.
Travis Kelce, TE
Is the TE1 version of Kelce back? He caught 23 passes in three October games and finally found paydirt (on his first end-zone target of the season), his first regular-season score in over 11 months.
The future Hall of Famer has three top-10 finishes on his résumé and has caught 17 of 19 targets on the scoring side of the field this season. The Chiefs aren’t and have no reason to use Kelce like the prime version of himself, but as long as No. 15 is under center and he’s operating as the primary underneath option, he’s a top-five tight end.
The Buccaneers have allowed the third-highest opponent passer rating on tight end targets through eight weeks, giving Mahomes every excuse to load up on comfort targets.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs Insights
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: This is the first of a seven-game stretch that sees Tampa Bay play five road games.
QB: Baker Mayfield has thrown for 325 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games – the last player with a four-game streak was Aaron Rodgers bridging the 2012-13 seasons.
Offense: The Bucs are averaging 2.57 points per drive, pacing for their second most this millennium (other: 2020, Super Bowl champions).
Defense: Over the past two weeks (BAL and ATL), Tampa Bay has allowed 3.6 points per drive (Weeks 1-6: 2.0).
Fantasy: We spent a lot of time last week trying to pin the tail on the Buccaneer WR most likely to step up when it proved to be the existing pieces—against the Falcons, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, and Rachaad White accounted for 48.2% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards and 56.8% of their receptions.
Betting: Tampa Bay is 4-16 ATS (20%) over their past 20 primetime games (0-2 this season in a pair of shootouts – 36-30 loss to the Falcons in Week 5 and a 41-31 loss to the Ravens in Week 7).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: This isn’t the high-flying offense we want it to be, but there is an offensive floor that comes with Patrick Mahomes, and that’s enough—this team hasn’t lost a game in which they’ve scored over 20 points since December 4, 2022 (at Bengals).
QB: Mahomes doesn’t have a completion that traveled 20 yards in the air in October.
Offense: The Chiefs averaged 31.1 points per game in their 2022 wins. That number dropped to 25.0 last season and is even lower in their undefeated start this season (24.7).
Defense: They proved willing to ramp up the aggression last week in Vegas if they identify it as a weakness of their opponent – 47.1% blitz rate after checking in under 28% in each of their three games prior.
Fantasy: Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games and has a lower pass touchdown rate than Will Levis this season.
Betting: Mahomes has covered all three of his primetime games this season (Ravens, Falcons, and Saints) after covering just three of his most recent 11 regular season primetime games entering 2024.