The Indianapolis Colts will face the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
I don’t want to pile on, but the number of unimpressive stats surrounding Anthony Richardson is getting out of control. He earned the lowest QB+ grade of Week 8, which is hard to do when you connect on a 69-yard touchdown in a week where every team was in action.
One big play should elevate you out of the basement, but when you complete 29% of your passes with zero scores outside of that play, you get what you deserve grade-wise. That Josh Downs score is the only one Richardson has thrown since Week 2 (80 attempts), and he hasn’t pushed the ball over the line with his legs since the season opener.
In theory, I should be enamored with Richardson’s ability to pick up cheap points with his legs (101 rush yards in his two games back from injury, so no real restrictions there), but I just can’t get there.
The bad interception at the end of the first half demonstrates that he is broken in more ways than just decision-making. He’s completely lost all confidence as a passer, and that’s made him unplayable.
The Vikings have as many multi-INT games as multi-TD pass games allowed this season, and it certainly feels as if Richardson is more likely to slide into the latter bucket than the former. The Colts shared this assessment and, on Tuesday, made it official that they were opting to go to Joe Flacco under center.
If you have the roster space, holding Richardson for a week or two is still my preferred option — if for no other reason than this franchise has more to gain by learning as much as they can about him than chasing 2024 success by way of Flacco.
If you are desperate for wins — a very real possibility given that your projected starting QB has been abysmal — cutting ties is an acceptable action.
Joe Flacco, QB
Flacco has multiple passing scores in eight straight regular-season games, including all three instances in which he’s been called upon this season. The veteran’s floor is clearly higher than that of the man he is replacing, but I don’t love this spot, even with Minnesota struggling a bit of late.
The well-rested Vikings rank better than the league average in nearly every metric against short passes, putting them in a position to further limit Flacco’s ceiling (6.6-yard aDOT). With Minnesota operating at the fifth-slowest pace, we ran into a volume issue, and that resulted in Flacco simply replacing Anthony Richardson in my ranks.
Among the widely available options down the QB board, I have Flacco over Jameis Winston, but you’d have to be in a very difficult spot to have to go that direction.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
Some players are eased back from injury, and others are Jonathan Taylor, as he was responsible for 100% of Indianapolis’ running back carries last week in the loss to the Texans. If they aren’t nervous about his health, why should we be?
There are more than a few reasons why this Minnesota boat has taken on water over the past two weeks, but their inability to stop RB1s is certainly a part of it:
- Week 7, Jahmyr Gibbs: 19 touches for 160 yards and two touchdowns
- Week 8, Kyren Williams: 28 touches for 106 yards and one touchdown
Taylor’s role is as favorable as any in the league, and with Anthony Richardson benched, there are next to no threats to Taylor’s role inside the five-yard line. Sign me up for Taylor as a top-five running back the rest of the way.
Trey Sermon, RB
After playing the majority of snaps in three straight games, Sermon saw his snap share crater to 14.3% in Sunday’s loss against the Texans and wasn’t handed the ball a single time.
Tyler Goodson out-performed him in a pretty significant way when Jonathan Taylor was on the shelf, making Sermon a roster casualty in all fantasy formats. This roster spot is better used on an all-or-nothing receiver like Gabe Davis or a running back like Jaylen Wright who owns more per-carry upside should he be given the opportunity.
Tyler Goodson, RB
Goodson has passed Trey Sermon as the handcuff in which I am most interested in Indy, but he didn’t get his hands on the ball a single time last week against the Texans with Jonathan Taylor back in the mix. He’s a luxury stash in the deepest of formats at best – you’re more than welcome to cut ties after trying to extract value from this backfield with Taylor on the shelf.
Alec Pierce, WR
Remember when Pierce had 38.1 fantasy points through two weeks and fantasy nation wondered if they had stumbled upon a game-changer in the late rounds of their drafts?
Fun times.
He has 35.3 points in the six games since, and 13.5 came on a single catch. Any week in which Anthony Richardson is healthy is a week that Pierce could return value — but it’s also a week that the lowest-ranked signal caller in our QB+ metric can render him completely useless. That’s not going to be the case in the short term with Richardson benched, though an increase in mean QB play isn’t to be viewed as a negative.
If you’re dealing with a depleted roster and fighting an uphill battle, go ahead and buy this lottery ticket, even with Flacco under center, against the defense with the 10th-highest opponent completion percentage on deep passes. If you have a competitive roster, it’s because you’ve avoided players like Pierce, and I’d keep with the status quo in that situation.
Josh Downs, WR
Downs certainly looked like the best receiver on this team last week, hauling in a 69-yard touchdown pass from Anthony Richardson and nearly having a 25-yarder later, a play that was reversed from a score to a 24-yard gain courtesy of review.
He might be the best fantasy option among the pass catchers in this offense moving forward, but with Joe Flacco taking over, we get a professional offensive approach, and that is a pair for fantasy managers.
Or is it?
Yes, his seven touchdown passes this season have gone to five different players and that’s annoying. But, in this admittedly small sample size, Downs has been targeted on 34.5% of his routes. For reference, Tyreek Hill was the only player to post a rate like that in 2023.
The type of target is obviously going to look very different between Flacco and Robinson. The depth of target will shrink, but the percentage of targets that are actually in his zip code skyrockets, and that makes him a fine Flex play in all formats against a Vikings defense that is routinely challenged underneath instead of over the top (sixth-lowest opponent aDOT this season).
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Pittman was targeted deep down the field on Anthony Richardson’s first pass last week, and I was mentally preparing to be sucked back in with the thought being that they are adjusting Pittman’s role to put him in a position to at least see targets with their YOLO second-year QB.
After 36 hours of trying to talk myself into that — mental hurdles that included falling asleep to the recording of the radio call of that missed target (some people have white noise, I wish cast fantasy production; sue me) — I saw the news break that Joe Flacco was named the Week 9 starter.
Pittman with Anthony Richardson, 2024:
- 27.3% under fantasy expectations
- 13.8 aDOT
- 50% catch rate
Pittman with Joe Flacco, 2024:
- 7.8% over fantasy expectation
- 8.9 aDOT
- 63.2% catch rate
I don’t think there’s any question that this is a positive move for the receiver we presumed was atop this depth chart two months ago, and that makes him a Flex-worthy player.
I worry that he has been surpassed by Josh Downs as the primary target in this offense and we are looking at a low pass rate over expectation projection with a healthy Jonathan Taylor, but I’m cautiously optimistic and have Pittman ranked ahead of names like Tank Dell and DeAndre Hopkins for Week 9.
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings Insights
Indianapolis Colts
Team: The Colts are 4-4 this season, with five games decided by a field goal or less (2-3 in those games).
QB: Pressure is one thing; seeing ghosts is another – Richardson went 6-of-20 for 78 yards and an interception against the Texans when not pressured.
Offense: The Colts gained 21.2 yards per drive in the Week 7 win against the Dolphins, their lowest rate of the season. In the loss to the Texans on Sunday, that number was 21.0.
Defense: In Weeks 1-5, the Colts forced a punt on 23.6% of drives, a rate that has spiked to 48.6% since.
Fantasy: Anthony Richardson hit Josh Downs for a 69-yard touchdown pass of the season – his third of 50-plus yards.
Betting: Indianapolis has covered eight of their past 10 road primetime games (this is their first game since Week 13, 2022).
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Vikings have played just three true road games this season – after this week, they go on the road for three straight (Jaguars, Titans, and Bears).
QB: Sam Darnold posted his highest in-pocket passer rating of the season on Thursday night (134.0, he’s been over 106.0 in six of seven games.
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Minnesota averaged 6.5 yards per play on first down, a rate that is down to 4.8 since.
Defense: The Vikings posted their highest pressure rate of the season in Week 7 against the Lions (58.6%) but couldn’t make Matthew Stafford uncomfortable in Week 8 (11.8%, 18 percentage points below their previous season low).
Fantasy: Against the Rams on Thursday night, Sam Darnold started hot and then struggled – 67.5% of his fantasy points as a passer were scored on Minnesota’s first two drives.
Betting: Since 2020, 74.4% of Vikings games played after Halloween have gone over the total (29-10-1, league average: 48.4%).
Betting: The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games played on extended rest.