The Chicago Bears will face the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bears skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams, QB
If you drafted Caleb Williams and/or are counting on him in any capacity, the roller-coaster ride has been an experience. Depending on when you’ve jumped on and off will influence your feeling toward rostering the rookie, but I’ve generally been encouraged of late, and this matchup has me willing to go back to the well, even after a dreadful Week 8 showing.
What caused the disaster that was the Washington game? In short, Williams didn’t handle the blitz well.
In Weeks 3-7, he was the third-best quarterback in terms of passer rating against the blitz (133.3, trailing only Jared Goff and Joe Burrow). But in Week 8, Williams checked in 31st of 33 qualifiers (61.7, worst of QBs who had more than five pass attempts against the blitz for the week).
I’m not sure if that’s a blip on the radar or cause for long-term concern, but that’s a problem for another day. The Cardinals (third-most red-zone trips allowed this season) are a middle-of-the-pack defense in terms of blitz rate and the second-worst at creating pressure when they do elect to bring an extra defender. That’s the driving force behind my QB12 ranking of the rookie, one spot ahead of Mahomes.
D’Andre Swift, RB
Is there a running back playing better than D’Andre Swift? Over his past four games, he’s produced 33.4% over expectation, averaging 22.6 PPR points per game in the process, highlighted by a 56-yard score last week.
At first, I thought Swift’s success was tied to Caleb Williams’ development, but against Washington, he proved capable of producing even when the passing game was struggling (18 carries for 129 yards).
The fact that Swift can burn defenses in a variety of ways makes him a surefire fantasy starter in all formats. There are five running backs in the NFC North that you can start on a consistent basis — you’re lucky to have any of them!
DJ Moore, WR
Once over the past month has Moore reached 30 receiving yards in a game. He did it in style (105 yards and two scores in the Week 5 win over the Panthers), but a 25% hit rate for that threshold isn’t exactly what we are looking for.
More concerning than the raw box score numbers is that Moore has posted his two worst target-share-rate games of the season in Chicago’s past two. I’m inclined to write off the recent struggles as part of the learning curve with a rookie QB, but I’m nervous.
This, however, profiles as a nice get-right spot. The Cardinals own the second-highest opponent passer rating on receiver targets and are a bottom-10 unit when it comes to defending short passes (yards per attempt). Moore’s slot usage has ticked lately, and that should allow him to return viable Flex numbers in a game that Vegas has labeled as a coin flip.
Moore’s slot usage rates, 2024:
- Week 3 at Colts: 2.5% of routes
- Week 4 vs. Rams: 14.3% of routes
- Week 5 vs. Panthers: 18% of routes
- Week 6 vs. Jaguars: 31.4% of routes
- Week 8 at Commanders: 17.5% of routes
I have dreams that Caleb Williams will funnel targets to his WR1 moving forward the way he did to open his career (28 targets through Week 3 and 23 since), and if the quality of those looks is improved, we could be onto something coming down the stretch of the fantasy season.
Keenan Allen, WR
Underwhelming. I really don’t have any other words for what we’ve seen from the veteran receiver up to this point. He’s averaging over an end-zone target per game, and yet he has just one top-50 performance under his belt as a member of the Bears.
This is a plus matchup (23rd in yards per slot pass against and 29th in slot TD%), but what proof do we have that the Caleb Williams/Allen connection is worth trusting?
Production relative to expectation, 2024:
- Cole Kmet: +46.1%
- DJ Moore: -6.5%
- Rome Odunze: -16%
- Allen: -22.1%
Allen is a roster-worthy player as a cheap bet on Williams’ development, but we need proof of a plan before inserting him into Flex conversations.
Rome Odunze, WR
Playing Odunze is a rookie parlay that I simply can’t wrap my head around. He was the seventh-best receiver in fantasy in Week 3, showing us what is possible for years to come in this Chicago offense, but the fact that he hasn’t once been a top-45 receiver since then tells you all you need to know about the decision-making process for Week 9.
This is exactly the type of receiver I keep rostered but never play. That may feel like a waste of a roster spot and it could be, but I’m comfortable burning a bench spot with the hope that these two can find a rhythm with 2-3 months of NFL reps.
Cole Kmet, TE
Does a single player’s profile fit the tight end position more than Kmet’s?
- Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts: 25.7 PPR points (26.8% target rate)
- Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Rams: 6.4 PPR points (15% target rate)
- Week 5 vs. Carolina Panthers: 8.7 PPR points (14.3% target rate)
- Week 6 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: 24.0 PPR points (17.9% target rate)
- Week 8 at Washington Commanders: 4.4 PPR points (5.6% target rate)
Kmet has been consistently productive when given the opportunity, but that role is spotty at best. He has just one end-zone target this season while his slot rate is down from last season and his red-zone usage is as low as it’s been since his rookie campaign.
Kmet draws a bottom-10 defense in both scoring and yardage, making him a reasonable plug-and-play option this week if you’re in need, but this isn’t the type of player I’m labeling as a stable option for the remainder of the season.
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals Insights
Chicago Bears
Team: For the first time in the 2000s, the Bears have allowed 21 or fewer points in each of their first seven games of a season.
QB: It’s been a simple story with Caleb Williams – his passer rating is 42.8 points higher when not pressured than when he is this season.
Offense: The Bears didn’t run for even 85 yards in any of their first three games – they’ve cleared 125 rushing yards in all four games since (Week 8 at Washington: season-high 196 rushing yards).
Defense: Bend but don’t break – the Bears haven’t allowed a red zone touchdown in two of the past three weeks (that, of course, isn’t going to help when defending Jayden Daniels Hail Marys).
Fantasy: Is there a running back playing better than D’Andre Swift? Over his past four games, he’s produced 33.4% over expectation, averaging 22.6 PPR points per game in the process.
Betting: Six straight Bear road games have come in under the closing total.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: The Cardinals are seeking their first three-game win streak since starting the 2021 season 7-0.
QB: Kyler Murray posted a 127.2 in-pocket passer rating against the Dolphins last week, his highest since Week 13, 2021.
Offense: The Cardinals beat the Dolphins last week without leading for a single offensive snap. It’s their second game this season in which every offensive snap came from behind and their second win when they were trailing for over 87% of their offensive snaps (Also: Week 5 at the 49ers).
Defense: Arizona has allowed their opponent to pick up at least half of their third downs in five of the past six games (Dolphins in Week 8: 11-of-15, 73.3%).
Fantasy: Marvin Harrison Jr.’s sliding touchdown catch was a work of art and paid the fantasy bills, but be careful – his 19.4% on-field target share was his lowest since his NFL debut. That said, he was in the slot for a season-high 32.1% of his routes, an encouraging sign of this team’s willingness to move him around.
Betting: Overs are 9-4 in Kyler Murray’s career when he starts in a game with a spread of less than three points.