The Buffalo Bills will face the Miami Dolphins in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023). He’s squished the fish whenever given the opportunity.
While he saw his 13-game multi-TD pass streak against Miami come to an end in Week 2 due to the domination of the run game (78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries for James Cook), he’s on the short list of players who could set the pace for scoring this weekend.
He has this Buffalo offense trending in a positive direction, and that creates an elite floor. The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4, they followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week. Allen is locked and loaded in all formats — there isn’t such a thing as having too much exposure to him this weekend.
James Cook, RB
James Cook has finished four weeks this season as an RB1, and with the Dolphins allowing a touchdown on a league-high 6.1% of running back carries, a fifth is very much within the range of possible outcomes.
Buffalo’s bell cow scored twice in the first meeting while averaging 7.1 yards per carry, a level of efficiency that likely earns him a heavy workload this weekend. On top of the touchdown rate, this Miami defense allows the most yards per carry after contact to running backs, giving the Bills every opportunity to physically dominate this contest.
Cook has earned at least three targets in four games this season, giving him a secondary path to production should the running lanes be plugged and/or Allen vultures the valuable touches.
Ray Davis, RB
The Week 6 explosion against the Jets (152 yards and a touchdown) was fun and gave us clarity when it comes to the proper way to handcuff James Cook, but with just 12 touches total over the past two weeks in two blowouts, he’s not a stand-alone option.
With the Bills trading for Amari Cooper, it sure seems like they are gearing up to put the weight of this season on the shoulders of Josh Allen, and if that’s going to be the case, asking the 220-pound Davis to handle goal-line duties becomes even less likely.
Cook is a bona fide starter and Davis is an insurance policy that is a viable RB2 if pressed into the starting role.
Amari Cooper, WR
Amari Cooper played just one-third of the snaps in his Buffalo debut and was extended to 50.7% in the blowout win over Seattle in Week 8. His usage patterns have not been too noteworthy (slightly less slot usage due to Khalil Shakir’s presence) as we haven’t seen enough routes to make any firm claims.
We’ve seen Cooper win big in the lead role, and I tend to think that is what is most likely to occur as the season progresses. Shakir is currently my highest-ranked receiver on this team, though I think there are three very playable options.
Remember last December when Cooper finished with a bang (22 catches, 451 yards, and three scores over the final three weeks)? I’m not suggesting we see something similar this year, but with the Rams, Lions, and Patriots on the books for Weeks 15-17, his best could come at the perfect time.
Keon Coleman, WR
This offseason was spent hyping up this rookie receiver class, and Coleman is trending in an ultra-impressive direction with consecutive top-20 finishes, positioning himself to be the next great first-year WR to peak at the perfect time for fantasy managers.
Rookies’ production vs. expectation:
- Brian Thomas Jr.: +43.7%
- Coleman: +29.6%
- Ladd McConkey: +18.6%
- Marvin Harrison Jr.: +14.6%
- Malik Nabers: -6.9%
It’s easy to look at two strong performances in a row from the rookie and tie it to the addition of Amari Cooper, but “easy” and “accurate” aren’t always the same thing.
Coleman’s splits, Weeks 7-8:
- Cooper on the field: 2.3 fantasy points per target, 17.4% target share, and 21.9% slot
- Cooper off the field: 2.5 fantasy points per target, 25% target share, and 8.1% slot
As good as Coleman has been, his role still comes with volatility, volatility that his teammate doesn’t have — and that is why Coleman remains as my third option in Buffalo.
Khalil Shakir, WR
Maybe it’s because we share initials. Maybe it’s because we share Zodiac signs. Maybe it’s because we both spent our early 20s in upstate New York. Or, hear me out — maybe it’s because this man is truly amazing.
Khalil Shakir has caught 91.03% of his targets over his past 18 regular season games. For reference:
Avengers, Rotten Tomatoes: 91.00%
Steph Curry career FT%: 91.00%
Justin Tucker career FG%: 89.67%
UConn NCAAB Win% during repeat: 86.07%@BuffaloBills #BillsMafia— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) October 28, 2024
The Bills offer plenty of flash and have an MVP candidate under center, all of which is taking away from one of the most amazing runs in our game.
Once. One time since the beginning of last season, in regular-season action, have multiple targets to Khalil Shakir hit the ground within a game. His connection with Josh Allen is as rock solid as any in the NFL.
Yes, I understand that Shakir’s 3.6-yard aDOT lends itself to efficiency, but there’s no one in his zip code when it comes to his catch rate since the beginning of last season, and that has made him a PPR lineup staple.
With Buffalo’s implied point total hanging around 28 points for this game, we are introducing some scoring equity to a profile that comes preloaded with an elite floor.
The Dolphins are a below-average defense when it comes to defending the slot (worse than the league average in passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and yards per completion).
However high you are on Shakir, it’s not high enough. He’s a PPR WR2 for me in this spot, putting him alongside names like Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Kincaid has just one finish better than TE10 this season and has yet to clear 52 receiving yards in a game — he’s been viable, he just hasn’t taken that Year 2 step that we were hoping for.
Buffalo’s TE1 is a good teaching point about priors. We all enter our fantasy drafts with player takes and a cheat sheet. We have thoughts on 200+ players that we work hard to form, and that’s 100% the right way to go about things.
But leaving those takes in the preseason is a skill that takes some refining. If I laid out the state of the tight end position league-wide and told you that I’d give you 6+ targets every week (Kincaid has done it in five straight games) for the fifth-highest-scoring team in the league, you’d take it and not think twice, right?
But because of our previous thoughts, we are labeling Kincaid as a disappointment. His ADP means nothing now — at the end of the day, you’re getting passable numbers from the TE slot on your roster and that’s a luxury that not all teams have.
I’ve come off of my “Kincaid can be a top-three producer at the position” take, but that doesn’t mean I’m looking for other options; Kincaid is a weekly starter and you don’t need to roster a backup.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: Much has been made of the Dolphins’ ability to play on the East Coast as the weather turns—they don’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
QB: In his return to action, Tua Tagovailoa completed 28 passes, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Offense: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play on Sunday, their best mark since Week 1, the only other Tua Tagovailoa full game. In Weeks 2-7, they picked up just 4.4 yards per play.
Defense: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami is 12.3%, the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Fantasy: De’Von Achane produced 56.1% over expectation in the return of QB1 – in the four games Tagovailoa missed, his rate was 39.1% below expectations.
Betting: Miami covered 13 of Tua Tagovailoa’s first 19 starts in November or later. They have been 5-9 ATS in such spots since, with three straight failures to cover (outscored 103-40 across those games).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road – three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Chiefs in Week 11 and 49ers in Week 13).
QB: In Week 2, James Cook ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries while the Bills had the ball for under 24 minutes. That combination of events resulted in Josh Allen failing to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 14 career games against the Dolphins.
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4. They followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle last week.
Defense: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023).
Betting: Each of Buffalo’s past three covers against the Dolphins have checked in under the total (31-10 win in Week 2 with a 49-point closing total).