The Baltimore Ravens will face the Denver Broncos in Week 9. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Ravens skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Lamar Jackson, QB
A Rashod Bateman drop last week robbed Jackson of additional yards and the 300-yard bonus in daily spots last week. I mean, your job title is “receiver;” you’d think “receiving” the ball would be at the top of his résumé, but what do I know?
No, I’m not at all salty about that drop. It certainly didn’t impact my DFS lineups, my moneyline picks competition, or my bet on the Ravens’ team total. Why do you ask?
OK, I had to get that off of my chest. Jackson has been the QB6 or better in six weeks this season, building a profile that looks very much like what Jalen Hurts gave us up to this point a season ago. Denver’s aggressive defense (second in pressure rate) is a problem for most, but Jackson isn’t “most.”
Jackson’s splits, 2024:
- Pressured: 108.2 passer rating, 7.0 yards per attempt, and 10.9% TD rate
- Not pressured: 118.1 passer rating, 9.6 yards per attempt, and 5.8% TD rate
His next pressured interception will be his first of the season. This Denver defense tops our Defense+ metric, and I’m buying what they are selling — just not against the reigning MVP.
Derrick Henry, RB
Isn’t it crazy what happens when you more than triple the yards per carry before contact for one of the game’s most physical runners?
Derrick Henry’s production over expectation is sitting at a career high, and his gain rate (86.2%) is pacing for his best since 2018.
From a spreadsheet standpoint, Henry looks like a fade. He’s hardly involved in the passing game (one multi-catch effort this season), and big plays continue to drive his rushing numbers. But what evidence do we have that any defense can stop Henry?
Trick question. We have no such evidence.
Henry was held to 11 carries last week due to how the game scripted out, and it still didn’t matter (73 yards and a score). Denver owns a top-10 run defense in every metric I value, and I couldn’t care less. Henry might be the most matchup-proof player in fantasy sports right now, and if you had the foresight to draft him, you’re positioned well to make a deep run this winter.
Diontae Johnson, WR
Johnson was dealt from Carolina to Baltimore on Tuesday, as big a team trajectory change as he could possibly hope for. He’s plenty capable of winning in the slot, but he moved outside more this year when playing alongside Adam Thielen. While Zay Flowers isn’t as pigeonholed role-wise as the aging Thielen, I expect his 39.6% slot participation to sustain, thus requiring Todd Monken to be creative when it comes to the usage of his newest chess piece.
We’ve seen plenty of receivers moved over the past few weeks (DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, etc.), and they’ve been eased into action. I suspect that will be the case here. That means I’m taking a cautious approach.
Johnson is a Flex play for me this week, understanding that better days are ahead. This trade elevates his status for the remainder of the regular season. While I think he takes a little food off the plate of Flowers, it’s the tight end position that will be most impacted for our purposes.
Zay Flowers, WR
Over his past six games, Zay Flowers (recently playing through an ankle issue) has three with over 110 receiving yards, yet three others with no more than 20. On the plus side, three of his five end-zone targets this season came on Sunday in Cleveland.
Nevertheless, adding Diontae Johnson to the mix makes this an increasingly difficult profile to evaluate. Flowers’ fantasy stock, to no surprise, has been directly tied to target share. And regardless of what you think Johnson brings to this offense, you have to dial back Flowers’ role in some capacity.
- 20.5 PPG when targeted on over 25% of his routes this season
- 5.6 PPG when not targeted on over 25% of his routes this season
I’ll grant you that it is entirely possible that the attention that a proven talent like Johnson demands could result in enough of an uptick in the quality of targets to offset the decline in quantity. However, we’ll have to wait and see on that.
In Week 9, Flowers remains a WR2 after this deal, as I find it unlikely that his newest teammate is on the field for the majority of snaps.
Isaiah Likely, TE
Remember that 12-target season debut? That was the last time Likely saw five targets in a game. While the snap count is fine (69.4% last week), Todd Monken isn’t running this athlete downfield enough to give him access to a viable fantasy profile.
He saw four targets against the Browns on Sunday totaling one air yard. I still think there’s talent here that can matter, so I’m tracking the situation, but he doesn’t need to be rostered in standard-sized leagues until Baltimore leans into him as essentially their WR2 and carves out consistent work for him.
Mark Andrews, TE
I don’t care that Andrews scored for the fourth time in three weeks.
OK, so that’s a lie. I loved it. But from a sustainability standpoint, a season-high 72.6% snap share is what is sucking me back into ranking the veteran as a fantasy starter. After a brutal September (11.1% target rate), Andrews caught 16-of-18 October targets with a 20.7% target rate.
The snaps and value of those snaps are trending in the right direction, giving me enough confidence to rank Andrews as high as I have over the past month (TE13). If he can produce against a defense that has allowed the third-lowest opponent passer rating on tight end targets through eight weeks, he’ll be inside of my top 10 for Week 9’s game against the Bengals.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens Insights
Denver Broncos
Team: Both the Broncos and Ravens are 5-1 over their past six games, with Denver (+66) holding the significant edge in point differential (Baltimore: +43).
QB: Over the past two weeks, Bo Nix is just 1-11 when pressured (43-52 when not pressured). The Ravens rank 27th in pressure rate this season and are coming off of their two lowest pressure rates of the season.
Offense: The Broncos picked up 64.7% of third downs on Sunday, their first game over 36.4% this season.
Defense: The Broncos allow a first down on just 19.% of opponent rush attempts, the third lowest rate in the league (Vikings and Ravens).
Fantasy: Nix is still a raw prospect, but he’s cleared six fantasy points with his legs in four straight and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of those games.
Betting: Denver has covered seven of their past nine games when installed as an underdog by more than six points.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens are 1-2 outright when favored by at least seven points this season (they were 17-3 in such spots over the previous four seasons).
QB: Blitz at your own risk – Lamar Jackson has completed 28-of-36 passes against the blitz over the past three weeks.
Offense: In Weeks 1-5, Jackson’s sack-per-pass attempt rate was 3.3%. Since then, it has remained at 8.1%.
Defense: Baltimore’s defensive success rate through four weeks stood at 62.3%, but it has plummeted to 53.4% since
Fantasy: Over his past six games, Zay Flowers has three with over 110 receiving yards and three with no more than 20. On the plus side, three of his five end zone targets this season came on Sunday in Cleveland.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in six of Baltimore’s last eight home games (2-1 this season).