There is no shying away from what has happened with the Indianapolis Colts organization in the past week. Benching the youngest quarterback in the NFL after his 10th start has to involve more than just his performance. While there are obvious issues, Anthony Richardson on film wasn’t helped much by constant pressure and many dropped passes in high-leverage situations.
Regardless, this will be the only mention of this situation for the entire article; the rest will be focused on how the Colts matchup with the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are coming off two tough losses to the Detroit Lions and the newly healthy Los Angeles Rams. Regardless, they still sit pretty in the NFC at 5-2 and within shouting distance of the No. 1 seed.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Vikings -5 - Moneyline
Vikings (-225); Colts (+185) - Over/Under
46.5 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, Nov. 3 - Location
U.S. Bank Stadium
Colts vs. Vikings Pick and Prediction
According to TruMedia, the Colts averaged 7.6 expected points added (EPA) in the two games Joe Flacco started. That would rank third-best in the NFL. This is also completely blinded by the strength of the opponent. One of the games came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are dead last in defensive EPA, and the other against the Tennessee Titans, where the Colts’ offense was nowhere near as effective.
Of 34 quarterbacks with over 100 passing attempts, Flacco ranks 24th this season when blitzed. The Vikings’ defense blitzes on 40.3% of dropbacks (second-most) and ranks fifth in defensive EPA when doing so. Going even further, the Vikings defense has been stout against the run. Minnesota ranks third in EPA against the run and has the highest rushing success rate in the league, preventing teams from a successful rush 69.2% of the time.
The Colts’ offense is practically outmatched in every situation. Defensively, the Colts rank 18th in EPA, which is much improved from the beginning of the season. The Colts have the No. 3 run-funnel defense in the NFL, meaning they dare teams to run in neutral and positive game-script situations.
Despite an absurdly negative connotation toward the Colts’ run defense after their first-half performance against the Green Bay Packers, they have managed a league-average run defense aided by facing four offenses in the bottom six in rushing EPA and only one in the top 10 (Jaguars, fifth). The Vikings rank 24th, so this isn’t a mismatch either.
The Vikings’ offensive line is one of the bottom units in terms of pressure allowed, but this is because Sam Darnold holds on to the ball in search of explosive plays. Darnold ranks ninth in the league in percentage of passes over 20 yards. PFF has the Vikings at 15th in pass-blocking grade and third in run-blocking grade. The Colts rank 29th in quick pressures generated and 24th in total pressures generated.
Overall, the Vikings’ offense and Colts’ defense are both about average, and the big difference will be star power. The Colts don’t have the players in the secondary to match up with future Hall of Famer Justin Jefferson.
Justin Jefferson is already up there with some of the best to do it. ⭐ pic.twitter.com/CAsiYYarlA
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 1, 2024
The Vikings rank 10th in EPA against zone coverage when targeting Jefferson, which the Colts run fourth most in the league. They also rank eighth when targeting Jefferson in Cover 3, something the Colts run third most in the league.
I fully expect Brian Flores and Jefferson to dominate this game and win easily against a Colts team with lots of extrinsic pressure on them to win and compete for the playoffs.
My pick: Vikings -5 (-110)
Rome Odunze, George Pickens, Nico Collins, and Brian Thomas Jr. have all had over 100 yards receiving against this Colts secondary. Pickens is the only one whose single-game target share against the Colts (34.4%) matches Jefferson’s season-long rate with the Vikings. At +145, DraftKings has priced a 100+ yard game from Jefferson at 40.82%. That is a bet I would be willing to take.
Alternate pick: Justin Jefferson 100+ Receiving Yards (+145)