The NFL standings in 2024 are starting to shake out as we head into Week 9. However, there is still plenty to be figured out in most divisions and for the Wild Card spots. Which teams does PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor see as the favorites to make the playoffs in 2024, and who could be a potential surprise package?
We simulate the season 10,000 times using our insights and metrics to project not just the regular season but also the full playoffs. From there, we have calculated the percentage chance of each team winning their division or making the playoffs as a Wild Card.
This data is refreshed after every game or following any major trades and injuries that could impact the playoff picture.
Let’s examine the projected NFL playoff picture in each conference as of Nov. 1, 2024.
AFC
1) Kansas City Chiefs
2) Buffalo Bills
3) Pittsburgh Steelers
4) Houston Texans
5) Baltimore Ravens
6) Denver Broncos
7) Los Angeles Chargers
NFC
1) Detroit Lions
2) Washington Commanders
3) Atlanta Falcons
4) San Francisco 49ers
5) Minnesota Vikings
6) Philadelphia Eagles
7) Green Bay Packers
Arizona Cardinals’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 20.5%
- Win the Division: 16.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.0%
Back-to-back wins have changed the Arizona Cardinals’ situation considerably. They are now 4-4 and in first place in the NFC West. However, this division likely has plenty of twists and turns remaining, and the Cardinals are still the worst team in the league in terms of their overall performances by our metrics.
The advantage that they have is that they have the easiest schedule in the division, but that may not count for much if they cannot beat their divisional rivals. They remain last in the division in terms of playoff and divisional chances, but they are very much in the picture, and one win could swing the entire situation.
Atlanta Falcons’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 57.1%
- Win the Division: 53.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.3%
The Atlanta Falcons’ win over the Buccaneers could have huge playoff ramifications. The Falcons have now swept the season series and will have that head-to-head advantage over the Buccaneers in any tie-breaker. However, the metrics tell us that the Falcons are the lesser team overall, and that means this division remains somewhat in the balance.
Playing in the Falcons’ favor is that they have the fifth-easiest schedule going forward and they have a little bit of margin for error now. Every week in which they can either extend or hold their current advantage will boost these numbers as the Buccaneers need to finish at least one game clear of their rivals to win the division.
Baltimore Ravens’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 96.6%
- Win the Division: 49.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 8.6%
Last week’s loss to the Browns dropped the Baltimore Ravens below the Pittsburgh Steelers in terms of the division race. However, with the Ravens and Steelers still to meet twice, the division is essentially 50-50. Our metrics have the Ravens as the better team, but we have seen them struggle in key spots already this year.
The top 10 offenses in the NFL through Week 8 using our Offense+ Metric 💥 pic.twitter.com/y93yacMUax
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 30, 2024
Barring a major injury, Baltimore should still be able to qualify for the playoffs even if it does not win the division. With the way the AFC is split, the Ravens should not have any major concerns about playing in the postseason. However, facing the seventh-hardest schedule the rest of the way could be a trip hazard.
Buffalo Bills’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 98.1%
- Win the Division: 93.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 7.4%
Despite the Jets getting back on track on “Thursday Night Football,” the Buffalo Bills still have firm control of the AFC East. They have a 3.5-game lead and a head-to-head victory over the Jets already, so they could lose four games but beat the Jets when they meet again and still win the division. That is unlikely to happen, but it is one hell of a security blanket to have in Week 9.
Carolina Panthers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Win the Division: 0.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Carolina Panthers will remain mathematically alive for at least a couple more weeks, but for all intents and purposes, they are done. It would take an incredible turnaround for them to make the playoffs from here, and their best path is through the division. The way the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Saints are playing, this division could be won with an 8-9 record.
Chicago Bears’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 18.7%
- Win the Division: 1.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
The Chicago Bears’ playoff chances would look very different if the Hail Mary play had not happened at the end of Sunday’s game. In our predictor, that swing from a victory to a loss cost the Bears around 15% in terms of playoff chances. The Bears are right around the top 15 of our power rankings, but they face the second-hardest schedule going forward. In a loaded mid-tier in the NFC, that could make their job very hard.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 10.6%
- Win the Division: 0.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
At this point, the Cincinnati Bengals are exactly who we see on screen. Their defense lets them down against most competent offenses, and their offense is fine but not good enough to carry their defense. All of that makes for a team that ranks in the bottom half of our PR+, which makes it hard to see how they can push for a playoff spot.
The good news for them is that the AFC is a mess, and most teams cannot get out of their own way. Having a middle-of-the-pack schedule does not help them, but there is a chance someone limps into the playoffs at 9-8, and we cannot write off the Bengals from being that team.
Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
It was exciting and somewhat nice to see the Cleveland Browns get a win on an emotionally charged occasion in Week 8. However, any hopes that we are looking at a sudden revival should be quickly put to bed. The Browns face the fourth-hardest schedule the rest of the way, and even if their offense has a new lease of life, we are talking about a league-average team at best.
Dallas Cowboys’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 7.4%
- Win the Division: 0.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Until they are officially eliminated, it will always feel like the Dallas Cowboys could make a run at any time, but their metrics suggest this is a team in trouble. Their schedule has been tough, but it only gets a little easier from here on in. They are only two games back on the Wild Card spots, but sitting in 13th right now means they need a lot to change, having started 1-3 in the conference.
Denver Broncos’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 71.7%
- Win the Division: 3.7%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.6%
This is both the most baffling and one of my favorite stories of the season. The Denver Broncos had been written off, and most conversation was about how high they would pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. However, they have been led by an incredible defense to a 5-3 record that has put them in control of their own future. Things get tough for the next two weeks, but they have a chance to underline their playoff credentials with a win or two.
The Broncos’ 70% chance of making the playoffs says more about the rest of the AFC than it does about them. Only seven teams are above .500 right now, and five teams have two wins or fewer. The schedule is tough from here on out, ranking ninth overall, but Denver could fall across the line this season and still have a chance to make the playoffs.
The top defenses in the NFL through Week 8, according to our Defense+ Metric ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/jotd05xVZL
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 31, 2024
Detroit Lions’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 97.5%
- Win the Division: 54.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 23.4%
As the class of the NFC right now, the biggest shock might be that the Detroit Lions’ chances of winning their division are not higher. However, that division is stacked, with the Vikings and Packers hot on their heels and the Lions having the third-hardest schedule the rest of the way.
The Lions and Vikings are two of the elite teams in the league this year; as long as the Vikings can stay in touch, they have one more game against each other that could be very telling. This division is the Lions’ to lose, but it is not as secure in terms of the numbers as they have made it look with their performances in recent weeks.
Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 74.9%
- Win the Division: 11.6%
- Win the Super Bowl: 3.8%
Given everything the Green Bay Packers have been through already this season, they have done brilliantly. It is impressive that they played two games with a backup and won both to sit at 6-2. The underlying metrics are not all that convincing, but offensively, it is hard to unpack where the Malik Willis factor hampers those metrics.
The Packers’ difficult remaining schedule — including six games against their division rivals — does not help them. Win this week against the Lions, and they will flip the narratives on their heads. They will still have a tough remaining schedule, but they will have shown they can beat those top teams.
Houston Texans’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 90.1%
- Win the Division: 86.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.8%
The Houston Texans’ loss to the Jets will have opened a few people’s eyes about this team’s frailties, especially with their injury situation. The metrics have never really shown the Texans to be a definitive top-10 team, and losing to a 2-6 Jets team is telling of that. They still have control of the AFC South after beating the Colts twice and would still need two more losses to surrender the lead.
Indianapolis Colts’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 14.6%
- Win the Division: 8.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
The Indianapolis Colts have thrown their chips into the middle of the table for 2024, naming Joe Flacco as their starter. That should give the offense a short-term boost as he is the more consistent of their quarterbacks in 2024. However, the defense is still a below-average unit, and they might be seeking short-term gain at the cost of some long-term pain.
The numbers here may seem low, given that they are 4-4 and in eighth place, but our metrics say that this is a middling team that will be lucky to push for a playoff spot. They also have a schedule that starts with the Vikings and Bills in the next two weeks, before what could be a crunch tie-breaker game with the Jets in Week 11.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 3.2%
- Win the Division: 1.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The Jacksonville Jaguars need to be virtually perfect from here on out to recover from their 2-6 start to the season. With games against the Eagles, Vikings, and Lions in the next three weeks, that could be enough to finish them off. At most, they can afford two more losses this season. If they get through to their bye at 3-8 or 4-7, the schedule after that does have under-the-radar, run-the-table vibes.
Kansas City Chiefs’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 99.9%
- Win the Division: 94.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 12.7%
The Kansas City Chiefs virtually having a playoff spot and the division locked up by Week 9 is early even for their talent. To do it while not even playing at their very best is terrifying. At this point, the Chiefs focus is likely on the No. 1 seed at that all-important first-round bye, as they had their regular-season bye in Week 6.
The Bills will be hoping to do something about that in Week 11, but they need some help from others if they are going to steal that first seed in the AFC. The only thing stopping the Chiefs from having higher percentages in terms of the Super Bowl is that they have not been better than sixth on offense and 10th on defense this year.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 1.2%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
It is difficult to see how the Las Vegas Raiders will get the seven wins they need to keep their playoff hopes alive through the end of Week 18. They will not be mathematically eliminated for a few more weeks, but there is very little chance they can make a run at the playoffs without some major slices of luck this year.
Los Angeles Chargers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 64.1%
- Win the Division: 2.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.8%
The Los Angeles Chargers have done well positioning themselves at 5-3 and are looking at the sixth-easiest remaining schedule this season. They have not been completely convincing but only really need to win five or six of their remaining 10 games, which is very much possible. The division is likely out of reach, but they have a good shot of getting a Wild Card spot.
Los Angeles Rams’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 31.4%
- Win the Division: 23.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.5%
We saw how things changed immediately when the Los Angeles Rams got their offense back to full strength in Week 8. Whether both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua can remain healthy through the rest of the season is a coin toss right now, and that somewhat limits their playoff potential at this point.
The Rams’ remaining schedule is not that hard, and another convincing performance like last week’s will boost their chances again heading into the second half of the season. Despite their slow start on offense and defense, they rank in the middle of the pack in PR+, and that is a solid position to be in if there is a chance they could get better form here.
Miami Dolphins’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 13.0%
- Win the Division: 1.3%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Last week’s collapse really hurt the Miami Dolphins’ playoff chances because they have to win at least seven of their remaining 10 games to have any chance of making the postseason. The schedule to date has also been the easiest in the league, and things will get harder from here. If the offense clicks into gear, it is possible they could get a Wild Card spot, but they need to flip the numbers quickly and convert good positions into wins.
Minnesota Vikings’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 87.2%
- Win the Division: 32.2%
- Win the Super Bowl: 12.4%
The Minnesota Vikings were in pole position for the NFC North division two weeks ago, but their back-to-back losses have seen them slip a game behind the Lions with a head-to-head loss. They still rank among the top five teams this season, and their schedule is significantly easier than the rest of their division. However, there was always a feeling this team could get “found out,” and we may have seen that starting in the last two weeks.
New England Patriots’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 0.5%
- Win the Division: <0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The New England Patriots’ win in Week 8 technically boosted their playoff hopes, but the victory was more about pride and rivalry than playoff ambition. With the Bills having a big advantage in the division already, the Patriots are relying on the Wild Card spots being available at 9-8 to have any real shot.
Even then, they would need to win seven of their remaining nine games. Given they are ranked 31st in our PR+ and are unlikely to climb significantly from there without major changes, that seems unlikely.
New Orleans Saints’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 4.9%
- Win the Division: 4.0%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
Despite losing six straight games and slipping to 2-6, the New Orleans Saints got some positive news in the return of Derek Carr. This is realistically a last-chance saloon now because they already need to win at least seven of their last nine to make the playoffs. Another positive is that their remaining schedule ranks as the second-easiest, meaning there is a small glimmer of hope for their playoff chance entering Week 9.
New York Giants’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 0.5%
- Win the Division: 0.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: <0.1%
The New York Giants are another team with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, ranking as the ninth-easiest. However, they are 2-6 with the 30th-ranked offense and a middle-of-the-pack defense, so it is going to take more than an easy schedule for things to change. The Giants need more out of the offense, and they need it immediately. Losing to the Commanders this week would be a virtual spike in their heart.
New York Jets’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 37.5%
- Win the Division: 5.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 1.5%
The New York Jets gave their playoff chances a shot in the arm with a crucial win over the Texans. This team is better by the metrics than the 3-6 record indicates, and if they can get on a roll, they have a very good shot of making the playoffs. The schedule is relatively soft, ranking as the fourth-easiest across the rest of the season, so making a run is more than possible.
The #Jets offense was held scoreless in the first half, but came out and dominated in the second half vs. HOU. 📈 pic.twitter.com/ejDGdm2R8M
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 1, 2024
Philadelphia Eagles’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 75.4%
- Win the Division: 19.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.8%
The Philadelphia Eagles have strung together three straight wins, but we have some questions about their quality, with all three opponents ranked in the bottom half. We may not find that answer out for a couple of weeks until they face a crucial matchup with the Commanders in Week 11.
The Eagles have the third-easiest schedule in the league, which gives them the inside track to the NFC playoffs and keeps them firmly in the division race. The key will be those two matchups they have left with the Commanders. Win both of them, and they will flip these division percentages on their heads.
Pittsburgh Steelers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 93.3%
- Win the Division: 50.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 4.6%
The Pittsburgh Steelers have moved into first place in the division and have the inside track … but just barely. Their current odds to win the division are just above 50%, and that is because they still have to face the Ravens in two games that profile as coin flips.
The Steelers have a marginally harder schedule, and the Ravens are the better team in our metrics. However, the Steelers have the one-game advantage right now, and things are so close that it is hard to definitively lean either way.
San Francisco 49ers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 53.8%
- Win the Division: 38.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 2.3%
The second half against the Cowboys pulled the San Francisco 49ers season from the jaws of despair. Things would have been very worrying if they slipped to 3-4 while facing the fifth-hardest schedule going forward. San Francisco still ranks as the best of the NFC West teams in our PR+, so they have the advantage on that front. All four teams remain in the mix and this could go right down to the wire for the division.
NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 9 using the PFN Power Ranking+ Metric 💥
This metric combines our internal Offense+ and Defense+ metrics, sprinkles in some special teams, and then applies a level of correction for the strength of schedule a team has played.
Those are the… pic.twitter.com/fXTTA5mPSe
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 29, 2024
Seattle Seahawks’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 29.1%
- Win the Division: 22.1%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
It is starting to look like the Seattle Seahawks might be a league-average team at best. They have had some ugly results against good teams and then generally beat up on the bad ones. They have been sliding down our rankings and now face the eighth-hardest schedule going forward.
Barring disaster, the way this division is shaping up should keep the Seahawks in the conversation until the last few weeks. That will mean they will harbor at least a slim hope of making the playoffs deep into the season, but it might be tied to their division chances more so than any Wild Card hopes at that point.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 47.7%
- Win the Division: 41.9%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
Our PR+ system views the Tampa Bay Buccaneers favorably compared to the rest of the division, but the injuries to their offense have left them in some trouble in the immediate future. Things are likely to get worse before they get better, and we could be looking at them slipping to 4-6.
After their bye week in Week 11, things get easier, with the Buccaneers’ overall schedule grading as the easiest over the remaining 10 weeks. The hardest part of that comes in the next two games, and then it is feasible that Tampa Bay could finish with six or seven wins in the last seven weeks to charge back into playoff contention late.
Tennessee Titans’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 4.9%
- Win the Division: 3.5%
- Win the Super Bowl: 0.5%
The Texans’ loss Thursday night improved their mathematical chances, but they need to start winning. They very well might do that against the Patriots, one of the few teams significantly worse than the Tennessee Titans in our rankings. Expecting the Titans to go on a run would be foolish, but a win this weekend would tick their chances up a little more in the immediate future.
Washington Commanders’ Playoff Chances
- Make the Playoffs: 93.4%
- Win the Division: 79.4%
- Win the Super Bowl: 6.4%
As we discussed with Chicago, the Hail Mary made a difference of around 15% to the Washington Commanders’ playoff chances. They sit higher in our PR+ rankings than the Eagles, so the expectation is that they will come out on top in the two clashes, but the most likely outcome is probably going to be a split of those games. Things could get tricky with tiebreakers if that is the case, but Washington is in a strong position.