The Dallas Cowboys look to get back to .500 by traveling to Atlanta to take on the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons.
Here are picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman for the Cowboys vs. Falcons matchup.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 52)
Soppe: Close games with high totals have a way of going under the total (unders: 22-13-1 since 2019 in games with a projected total over 50 and a spread under three points), and I like that to be the case in this spot. Not because I doubt the abilities of these offenses to move the ball but because I worry about their ability to finish drives.
Through eight weeks, the Falcons rank 22nd in red-zone efficiency and the Cowboys rank 31st, topping the touchdown rate of only the New York Giants. Competitive games often come with drawn-out possessions down the stretch, and when you combine that with the lack of mobility from both quarterbacks, a limiting factor when it comes to projecting splash plays, I feel good about this ticket.
Pick: Under 52
Soppe: Dallas running backs ran 17 times for 46 yards last week against the San Francisco 49ers, a contest in which Rico Dowdle (illness) was a late scratch and we got videos of Dalvin Cook drinking on the sideline before his season debut.
It wasn’t water that he was sipping.
It would appear safe to slot Dowdle atop this depth chart (20 of 28 RB carries in his last healthy game) and, as mentioned, the Falcons’ run defense is well below average, and it’s getting worse.
Through two weeks, they were the seventh-best unit against running backs in terms of success rate, but that was a long time ago.
Falcons’ cherry-picked defensive rush success by weekly ranks:
- Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs: 32nd
- Week 4 vs. New Orleans Saints: 22nd
- Week 6 at Carolina Panthers: 18th
- Week 8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 25th
Did I leave out two games? I did. Atlanta’s run defense showed well on the stat sheet for those games, but that’s not why I omitted them. In each of those games, the Falcons trailed for over 77% of their defensive snaps, a game script that I find very unlikely to unfold this week with them favored by a field goal.
The best run defense in the league this season is allowing 3.0 yards per carry to running backs. I like the chances of Dowdle flirting with 15 carries, putting him on track to cash this ticket even if this defense were to reverse course and plug the run at a high level.
Dowdle ladders are in play for those of you trying to juice up your prop card.
Pick: Rico Dowdle over 39.5 rushing yards (would take up to 44.5)
Bearman: As we hit on in our Defensive+ Rankings, the Cowboys have one of the worst rush defenses in football, allowing 154.6 yards per game on the ground, 31st in the NFL. Teams move the ball at will, averaging over 4.8 yards every time they get the rock. Bijan would only need less than half this total to hit his over/under, so we are going to play the over 71.5 here. Cowboys are 26th in our Def+ metric and Bijan should feast.
Pick: Bijan over 71.5 rush yards
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Strong second half? The on-field product is struggling right now, but this franchise does have back-to-back-to-back seasons with a four-game win streak in the second half of the season.
QB: Dak Prescott has been intercepted multiple times in three straight games, a first for him and the 11th time the franchise has seen a QB do that. Only twice in their long history has it happened in four straight (Danny White in 1983 and Craig Morton in 1972).
Offense: In Weeks 1-4, Dallas allowed pressure 25.8% of the time, a rate that has spiked in its three games since (37.3%).
Defense: The Cowboys are 2-3 over their past five games. In three games against teams favored to make the playoffs over that stretch, they’ve allowed 105 points (35 points per game). In the other two games, there were 32 points total. They face playoff hopefuls in each of the next four weeks (Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, and Washington Commanders).
Fantasy: Jake Ferguson had zero air yards in Week 8 despite eight targets and has been held under 30 air yards in four straight. He’s an asset in PPR leagues, but the per-catch ceiling is low (zero touchdowns this season, nine catches for 34 yards over his past two games).
Betting: Dallas has covered each of its past five road dome games as well as the past three cashing under tickets.
Atlanta Falcons
Team: In Week 8, the Falcons improved to 3-0 following a loss this season, winning those games by five points.
QB: Kirk Cousins’ 62.4% quick-pass rate is his highest since 2018, his first season with the Minnesota Vikings.
Offense: Atlanta converted three of eight 3rd-and-long situations (7+ yards) in Week 5 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; since then, it is just 2-of-15 in such spots.
Defense: The Falcons have the lowest sack rate in the NFL (2.2%), and it isn’t close (Carolina ranks 31st at 3.6%). We’ve only had two sub-3% sack teams over the past decade (the 2018 Oakland Raiders and the 2020 Tennessee Titans).
Fantasy: I’m not overreacting, but Drake London posted the lowest aDOT of his season on Sunday (6.7 yards) with his second-lowest on-field target share (18.8%). Shorter routes typically correlate with more volume, not less, so this is at least something to monitor.
Betting: The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS at home this season, and they were fortunate to get that one (Week 5’s comeback win over the Bucs in overtime as a 2.5-point favorite).