The 2-5 Miami Dolphins head up to Buffalo for an AFC East showdown versus the favored Buffalo Bills. The Bills won the first matchup against the Dolphins in Miami 31-10 in a game in which QB Tua Tagovailoa got a concussion.
Here are picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman for the Dolphins vs. Bills matchup.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6, 49)
Bearman: I was amazed Miami was a 4.5-point favorite in Tua’s first game back last week versus Arizona and hopped all over the Cardinals. I am equally surprised that, after seeing the Dolphins blow the game last week — though the offense did look better as expected with Tua’s return — they’d be less than a TD underdog to a Bills team that has absolutely owned the Dolphins.
The Bills have not only won 12 of their last 13 over Miami but also 12 of the last 13 at home against the Dolphins, including eight straight. Tagovailoa was in high school the last time Miami won in Buffalo, and that was an overtime win.
Putting all that aside, the two teams couldn’t be more different right now. The Dolphins have lost five of six since the season-opening win and have looked bad in the process. Meanwhile, the Bills already have four wins by three TDs or more, including a dominating 31-10 win in Miami in Week 2. I was surprised to find this one at less than a TD and will hop on the shorter line.
Pick: Buffalo -6
Soppe: Laying upwards of a touchdown in a divisional matchup isn’t something I make a habit of doing, but I think it makes plenty of sense in this spot. The total suggests that we are going to see plenty of points on the board; if that proves accurate, I think you have to side with the home team.
During their three-game win streak, the Bills own the third most efficient offense in the league (2.93 points per drive, trailing only the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens). While this Dolphins offense is more capable of keeping up in a game like that now than they were a few weeks ago, asking them to routinely put seven points on the board against the sixth-best red-zone defense and fifth-best unit by EPA is a tall task.
Pick: Bills -6
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Miami Dolphins
Team: Much has been made of the Dolphins’ ability to play on the East Coast as the weather turns — they don’t play another true East Coast game on the road until Week 17 (at Cleveland and at New York to finish the season).
QB: In his return to action, Tagovailoa completed 28 passes, his most in a game since Week 8 of last season.
Offense: Miami averaged 5.9 yards per play on Sunday, its best mark since Week 1, the only other full game from Tagovailoa. In Weeks 2-7, they picked up just 4.4 yards per play.
Defense: The average NFL team records a sack on 21.5% of dropbacks in which they create pressure. Through eight weeks, Miami (12.3%) is the second-lowest in the league (Atlanta).
Fantasy: De’Von Achane produced 56.1% over expectation in the return of QB1 — in the four games Tagovailoa missed, his rate was 39.1% below expectations.
Betting: Miami covered 13 of Tagovailoa’s first 19 starts in November or later. They have been 5-9 ATS in such spots since, with three straight failures to cover (outscored 103-40 across those games).
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills are coming off of a stretch where they played four of five games on the road — three of the next four are in front of #BillsMafia (Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 and San Francisco 49ers in Week 13).
QB: In Week 2, James Cook ran for 78 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries while the Bills had the ball for under 24 minutes. That combination of events resulted in Josh Allen failing to throw multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 14 career games against the Dolphins.
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on 9.1% of their drives in the blowout loss to the Ravens in Week 4. They followed that up with a 16.7% rate in Week 5, 33.3% in Week 6, 36.4% in Week 7, and 40% in Seattle in Week 8.
Defense: Buffalo has the fifth-highest pressure rate when bringing the heat (48%), a strength they carried over from last season (47.3%).
Fantasy: Including the playoffs, Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in 11 of 14 career starts against the Dolphins, five times surpassing 33 points (most recent: Week 3, 2023).
Betting: Each of Buffalo’s past three covers against the Dolphins have checked in under the total (31-10 win in Week 2 with a 49-point closing total).