Ideally, fantasy football would be a game that is completely fair and where everyone is equal. Unfortunately, that’s just not possible. We try to make things as fair as we can, but there will inevitably be some inequities. One of those inequities is draft position. What is the best slot to draft from, and how does draft position impact fantasy football strategy?
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What Is the Best Position To Have for Your Fantasy Football Draft Strategy?
Most seasonal fantasy football leagues determine their draft order via random chance. There are many different ways to do this in a manner that is somewhat exciting. You can pick names out of a hat, use an online randomizer, or do nothing and allow the draft platform to randomize the order just before the draft.
Regardless of which method you choose, one thing is the same — managers have zero control.
The odds of landing each individual draft slot is 8.3%. But, as history has shown, not every draft position is created equal. Furthermore, the extent of the of inequality between draft positions varies year to year.
There are plenty of leagues out there that, instead of determining the draft order itself by random chance, allow managers to select their preferred draft slot.
So, if your name comes out of the proverbial hat last (because you’ve got to draw 12-1 to build suspense), instead of automatically having the first overall pick, you would win the right to select your draft slot first. As the holder of the first “draft pick” pick, you can draft from any position you want. So, which one is best?
Draft Slot Value Over Replacement
Fantasy Points’ Scott Barrett did an analysis of expected value over replacement (VORP) by draft slot. He found that a top-three draft pick has a 114% edge on one that is in the bottom three.
Everyone playing fantasy football in a traditional snake draft league has been conditioned to believe we are slaves to our randomly selected draft position. Therefore, when suddenly presented with the opportunity to select a spot different than the one you would’ve otherwise had, managers are compelled to do something new.
If you have first choice of draft slot, you know that without this wrinkle, you would’ve been forced to draft from the No. 1 spot. As a result, our brains compel us to want to take advantage of the opportunity. By simply choosing No. 1, we would not be doing anything different than if the draft order was picked the traditional way. It feels like we’re not utilizing this new power.
This phenomenon leads to managers who have the full draft board at their disposal to go, “Do I really want the No. 1 pick? I kind of like the idea of being in the middle.” Or, “I like having the early second-round pick, so maybe I will pick later.”
In the past, I’ve had friends tell me they wanted a lower pick so they could get two of the guys they wanted. It’s even happened this year. I’ve had conversations where people said they wanted to pick in the middle rather than at the top (or bottom). In the past, I might have agreed in the right conditions. Over the years, though, I’ve learned that the earlier you pick, the better.
Should You Always Want the Highest Pick Possible?
On a macro level, the answer is probably “yes.” However, despite my personal gimmick being to speak in absolutes even when there are very clearly layers to things, when giving advice in earnest, I try to resist saying you should “always” do something. Fantasy football is a game filled with too much nuance and too many moving parts to say for certain that any one thing is objectively correct 100% of the time.
Most of you reading this are doing so for your home leagues. These are likely leagues with friends and acquaintances you have known for years. That means you’ve drafted with these people for years. You know their tendencies.
I remember way back in the late 2000s/early 2010s, a friend of mine was in a league with a guy who always took Steven Jackson. I mean always. No exceptions. Don’t ask me to explain it. Just know that based on each season’s ADP, he was going to take S-Jax wherever he had to in order to make sure Jackson was on his team.
There may be managers in your league who always take an RB in the first round, or always take a WR. If you know these things, you can use them to your advantage. There may be a scenario where you know a manager is going to do a certain thing, enabling you to select a lower draft slot, knowing you will still get your guy.
Most of the time, though, there are too many variables to account for. It’s impossible to always make the best pick at every draft slot. You can and should make the best choice in each round relative to your rankings and ADP.
Securing the first pick certainly doesn’t mean you’re going to win. It doesn’t even mean you’ll have the best players or a good team at all. You still need to draft well, manage well, and, of course, have a little luck.
If you make the optimal selection at every pick (which is defined retroactively based on fantasy points scored), you will likely win. However, since the objectively correct pick at each draft spot won’t be known until the season is over, no one is going to get everything correct (except apparently my friend Joe, who literally nailed every single pick in 2023. Shout out to Joe. He’ll never do it again).
If you look back at any of your past leagues, there will undoubtedly have been a path to victory for you. Assume everything else stayed the same to the extent possible, but you somehow had knowledge of that season’s results in advance. Your draft pick wouldn’t matter. There would be a series of objectively correct selections (remember, in this scenario we know the results of the games ahead of time) that would’ve led to you having the best team.
The problem lies in the fact that, in almost all cases, there is quite literally a 0% chance you would’ve taken the players necessary because you just couldn’t possibly have known. A great example of this is the 2023 season. Both Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua would’ve been the correct pick in almost any round beyond the first. They were both mostly undrafted.
This has been a very long-winded way of saying you can win from anywhere. Most people lament over being forced to draft from the No. 12 spot. Is it a disadvantage? Yes. Is it a death sentence? Of course not.
At the same time, draft position does matter. It still dictates what players you are allowed to draft.
Let’s use the 2024 season as an example. Obviously, we do not know which players will end being the best picks. But we do know where players go based on ADP data. If you draw the No. 10 pick, there is exactly a 0% chance you can draft Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, or CeeDee Lamb.
Your opinion on these players doesn’t even matter. In fact, that’s a really important point that doesn’t get discussed enough. In snake drafts, there are buckets of players you don’t even have to think about because your draft slot dictates you won’t ever have a chance to draft them.
You may look at that and think, “Wow. I really need to pick early, then.” But the front of the draft has the same problems, just with different players. Of course, you have the option to take anyone. But you also need to not willingly sacrifice value.
Say you really like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Garrett Wilson. You would love to start your draft with these two guys. But you drew the No. 2 slot. Unless you’re about to make ARSB the No. 1 WR off the board, your odds of drafting either of these players? You guessed it! 0%!
Based on rankings and ADP, the players that typically go at the 1-2 turn are pretty much off the table for you. There’s certainly an argument to be made for “getting your guy.” The general rule of thumb on “reaching” is it’s not really a reach if you aren’t going to be able to get the guy at your next pick.
This is one of the main reasons I love auction drafting so much. No player gets erased from your draft board simply due to your draft slot. But that’s an article for a different day.
There Are Advantages To Picking in the Middle
Statistically, picking early gives you the best chance to win. Having a pick at either corner gives you better odds of getting both players you want when you have two guys you’re struggling to decide between at your pick. But what about the middle?
Macro data cannot account for your league, the knowledge you have of your league-mates, and how savvy of drafters they are. Picking at the corners has its benefits. However, if given the choice between picking at the back end or in the middle, I would much rather the middle.
Teams that pick in the 5-8 range have an advantage that the teams on the corners do not — falling value.
You know the feeling I’m talking about. There was a player available at your pick that you like, but it was a bit too early to take him. You pass on him because you don’t want to reach, but you know you want him, even though he’s almost certainly gone by your next pick.
Then, you see that “X picks until your turn” start getting lower and lower, and the player is still there. You immediately tell yourself, “Well, if he makes it to me, I’m taking him.” This doesn’t really happen when you pick at the corners.
If you select at picks 1-3 or 10-12, a player falling past his ADP has to get by a much larger percentage of the league than if you pick in the middle. The closer you pick to No. 1 or No. 12, the more teams that player has to get past in order to make it to you. If you see the value, it stands to reason at least one other manager does as well.
When you pick in the middle, it’s a little more or a little less than half the league each round. That’s far fewer managers a falling player must get past for you to be able to scoop up the value. If that falling value exists, you have the potential to capitalize in every round.
The main difference in picking in the middle compared to the corners is the need to adapt. When picking at the corners, you often have the opportunity to get two players you want, but then there is a lot of time between your picks. As a result, you really need to pinpoint who you want and just take them.
When there are players who typically go 12-18 spots after your current selection, you have to make a decision right then and there on those players. Having two picks very close to each other forces you to either take players you don’t want, or take players you want earlier than you should.
In the middle, you don’t have this issue. You can let the draft room come to you. When that falling value presents itself, capitalize, even if it means shifting your draft strategy.
A common pitfall of an inexperienced fantasy manager is steadfastly sticking to a particular strategy, often predetermined. In the PFN Discord, one of the more common draft strategy questions is, “I have pick X. What’s the best strategy?” Managers like the comfort of knowing what they are going to do. Because of course we do. As humans, we don’t like uncertainty. Unfortunately, in fantasy football, nothing is certain.
This is not meant to criticize, but rather, to educate. You can’t really go into a draft saying you’re going to take X position in Round 1, Y position in Round 2, and Z position in Round 3. Drafts have too many variables.
Just because you need an RB2 doesn’t mean you take the best available running back if there’s a much higher-ranked WR available who realistically should’ve gone already. Draft for value before need … to an extent.
Therein lies the problem of managers picking at the corners. Let’s say you’re headed into the back half of Round 5, and you really need an RB2. But there are two tumbling WRs that you know are objectively good value picks based on ADP. Plus, you like these players. You want to take him.
If you know you need that RB2, and you pick in the middle, you can say to yourself, “I can wait one more round.” To be fair, that may end up not being the case. You can and will get it wrong. But waiting one more round likely won’t result in a run that removes every conceivable player you want to draft.
If you’re picking on the corners, the landscape of the draft might look very different when it gets back to you 20+ picks later. It’s much more difficult to execute a strategy. And much more likely, every player you could conceivably want is gone by your next pick.
Waiting that extra round can backfire from any position. It’s just much more likely to do so when there are more players being selected between your picks.
With so many players drafted between each of their two sets of picks, teams at the corners have to assume that if they pass on a player, he’s not making it back to them. This often forces managers to draft players earlier than their ADPs. In the middle, it’s conceivable that every pick you make is a value.
Is There a Particular Position You Have To Take Based on Draft Slot?
When I wrote this article in 2023, I said, “We are experiencing another seismic shift in draft philosophy this season. It is something we haven’t seen since 2016 — the rise of the early-round wide receiver.” In 2024, managers have dug their heels in even deeper on the WR-heavy approach.
The most valuable asset in fantasy football remains the elite running back. I don’t anticipate that ever changing. But last season, so many running backs disappointed. Meanwhile, WRs provide much more year-to-year predictability.
Other than Puka Nacua, every top WR is someone who was reasonably close to his ADP the year prior. Running backs are not the same. Not even close. Guys go from unknowns to first- or second-rounders. Guys go from early-round picks to middle-round picks. They are less predictable.
Everyone knows securing an elite running back is extremely beneficial. It just doesn’t automatically mean you have to take the best available running back with your first-round pick. There’s more to it than that.
Fantasy football is a game predicated on predicting the outcome of another game. There’s no objectively superior approach to drafting your fantasy team.
Now, that doesn’t mean just drafting on a whim with no real plan. You absolutely should have a clear strategy and plan in mind when entering your draft. Just don’t expect everything to go exactly as planned.
The best way I can explain this is by directing you all to Leonard Snart’s Four Rules of Planning. Watch the video. It’s only eight seconds long. If you’ve ever seen “The Flash,” you’ll probably get a good chuckle. I digress.
You want to make the best possible selection at every pick. Some years, that may involve taking running backs early and often. In other years, it may involve going wide receiver-heavy. There will even be situations where an early-round tight end appears to be the optimal move.
Whatever you decide to do, know that it’s possible to win with that draft strategy — unless that strategy is taking kickers and defenses in the first two rounds. Don’t do that.
If Given the Choice, What Draft Position Should I Select?
Now is the part where we get to 2024 fantasy football drafts specifically. And nothing has changed…at the top. If I have the choice of any draft slot, I am always taking No. 1. I always want to pick as early as possible, but the reason may not be why you think.
If we’re talking specifically about the first round, the No. 1 overall pick is the most valuable because of Christian McCaffrey. After that, the next best pick is No. 5, following by No. 8.
At No. 1, you take CMC. At picks 2-5, you take Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. So, if you pick No. 5, you don’t have to choose — you just get whoever is left. Since I value the big three RBs over everyone, there’s value in the No. 5 pick because it is almost always a running back.
For No. 8, we add in Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. I like them all and really don’t care which one I get. Therefore, No. 8 is valuable because you still get one of these players, but also get an earlier second-round pick.
That’s the first round, though. What really dictates where I want to draft is the third round.
Each year, there are typically a handful of Round 3 players that are clearly better than the rest of the available players. There’s a cliff, if you will. When you pick early, you have a better shot at securing one of those players. In fact, based on my preferences, there are 27 players I value before there’s a drop-off. And that does not include quarterbacks.
If I pick in the back half, there’s almost no chance any of those guys fall to me. If I pick in the top three, there’s a 100% chance I can get three of them. If I pick in the middle, it’s still highly likely I get one of them, as the odds of the rest of the managers having the exact same top 27 as me are slim.
MORE: How To Win Your Fantasy Football League
That’s where I find the biggest edge to be in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts. It’s one of the main reasons the third-round reversal draft structure was even invented.
If you include Josh Allen and an elite TE, I can stretch the number to 30. That means only the teams picking in the top five get to draft three of them. That’s where I want to be.
