The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Patrick Mahomes.
Is Patrick Mahomes Playing in Week 9?
Patrick Mahomes won’t miss Monday night’s game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. However, he did pop up on the first injury report on Thursday as limited with an ankle injury but was a full participant the entire week.
The three-time Super Bowl champ did see his left ankle get trapped while getting hit on a pass last week vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. Mahomes did not miss any time in the game but was limping afterward.
Patrick Mahomes #chiefs
Ankle gets trapped as he gets tackled here
He’s still playing, and this isn’t likely to be a major issue but he is limping pic.twitter.com/pmr9WwDxRt
— Tom Christ, PT, DPT, OCS, FAAOMPT (@FantasyInjuryT) October 27, 2024
Given that the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t even load managing his practice schedule, Mahomes is a near-certainty to play on Monday. Even so, it’s an injury worth monitoring, particularly given how effective Mahomes has been as a scrambler this season (second in scramble EPA behind Jayden Daniels).
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Patrick Mahomes in Week 9?
Benching Mahomes isn’t something you thought you’d be wrestling with when you drafted him, but every number produced through two months suggests that it’s the right move.
I could weigh you down with facts like “Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games” or “he went through the entire month of October without a completion of 20+ air yards,” but how about the simple fact that Kansas City is undefeated?
The Chiefs don’t need Mahomes to produce fantasy points for you to put ticks in the win column — it really is that simple.
The Bucs aren’t an intimidating defense, and maybe Mahomes will get it rolling under the bright lights on Monday. But we are in the predictions business, and nothing he has done up to this point is deserving of our trust.
Tampa Bay blitzes at the third-highest rate (35.4% of dropbacks), and Mahomes is pacing for the second-worst TD rate of his career alone with easily the highest interception rate of his career when opponents bring the heat.
If you’re starting Mahomes, I get it. It’s blind faith, and if you’ve made that bet over his career, you’re doing just fine. For me, he’s behind three rookies this week, and I could make a sound case for playing Matthew Stafford instead. Or even Mahomes’ opposing number in this game if you really want to get frisky.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 9 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes’ Fantasy Points Projection in Week 9
Mahomes is projected to score 19.3 fantasy points in Week 9. This includes 262.6 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions. It also includes 4 rushing attempts for 20.1 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insights: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense
Another defense that is at risk of ruining a good thing is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have now been inside the bottom 10 on four occasions this year and inside the bottom five on three of those. That was fine when the offense was at full strength, but asking the offense to score 30+ points without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin is a tough ask.
When you look at many of their metrics, things do not look that bad, but they consistently allow teams to move the ball on them in the passing game. They allow an average of 2.04 points per drive and 6.0 yards per play. Tampa Bay has conceded 26 or more points five times in the last six weeks and lost four of those games. Those numbers could easily be six and five with the Chiefs up next in Week 9.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Patrick Mahomes’ Week 9 Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 3:45 AM ET on Wednesday, December 25. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 17 QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. NYJ)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (at HOU)
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI (vs. DAL)
4) Joe Burrow | CIN (vs. DEN)
5) Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. ATL)
6) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. CAR)
7) Sam Darnold | MIN (vs. GB)
8) Kyler Murray | ARI (at LAR)
9) Bo Nix | DEN (at CIN)
10) Jordan Love | GB (at MIN)
11) Jared Goff | DET (at SF)
12) Anthony Richardson | IND (at NYG)
13) Brock Purdy | SF (vs. DET)
14) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at CLE)
15) Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. ARI)
16) C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. BAL)
17) Patrick Mahomes | KC (at PIT)
18) Justin Herbert | LAC (at NE)
19) Caleb Williams | CHI (vs. SEA)
20) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (at BUF)
21) Geno Smith | SEA (at CHI)
22) Russell Wilson | PIT (vs. KC)
23) Cooper Rush | DAL (at PHI)
24) Bryce Young | CAR (at TB)
25) Drake Maye | NE (vs. LAC)
26) Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at WAS)
27) Aidan O'Connell | LV (at NO)
28) Mac Jones | JAX (vs. TEN)
29) Mason Rudolph | TEN (at JAX)
30) Tommy DeVito | NYG (vs. IND)
31) Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (vs. MIA)
32) Spencer Rattler | NO (vs. LV)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs Insights
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: This is the first of a seven-game stretch that sees Tampa Bay play five road games.
QB: Baker Mayfield has thrown for 325 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games – the last player with a four-game streak was Aaron Rodgers bridging the 2012-13 seasons.
Offense: The Bucs are averaging 2.57 points per drive, pacing for their second most this millennium (other: 2020, Super Bowl champions).
Defense: Over the past two weeks (BAL and ATL), Tampa Bay has allowed 3.6 points per drive (Weeks 1-6: 2.0).
Fantasy: We spent a lot of time last week trying to pin the tail on the Buccaneer WR most likely to step up when it proved to be the existing pieces—against the Falcons, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, and Rachaad White accounted for 48.2% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards and 56.8% of their receptions.
Betting: Tampa Bay is 4-16 ATS (20%) over their past 20 primetime games (0-2 this season in a pair of shootouts – 36-30 loss to the Falcons in Week 5 and a 41-31 loss to the Ravens in Week 7).
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: This isn’t the high-flying offense we want it to be, but there is an offensive floor that comes with Patrick Mahomes, and that’s enough—this team hasn’t lost a game in which they’ve scored over 20 points since December 4, 2022 (at Bengals).
QB: Mahomes doesn’t have a completion that traveled 20 yards in the air in October.
Offense: The Chiefs averaged 31.1 points per game in their 2022 wins. That number dropped to 25.0 last season and is even lower in their undefeated start this season (24.7).
Defense: They proved willing to ramp up the aggression last week in Vegas if they identify it as a weakness of their opponent – 47.1% blitz rate after checking in under 28% in each of their three games prior.
Fantasy: Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games and has a lower pass touchdown rate than Will Levis this season.
Betting: Mahomes has covered all three of his primetime games this season (Ravens, Falcons, and Saints) after covering just three of his most recent 11 regular season primetime games entering 2024.