Entering Week 9, perfect entries in NFL survivor pools are quickly dwindling. And with the 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers and 4-4 San Francisco 49ers on bye, a pair of popular choices are off the table this week.
To make it another week, here are three teams that stand out as strong values to use.
All stats courtesy TruMedia unless otherwise stated. In addition, all lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buffalo Bills (-6.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
If the Buffalo Bills are still available to you, they’re are a strong option to use against the floundering Miami Dolphins while playing at home.
Miami’s offense was much more functional with Tua Tagovailoa back, posting a season-high 27 points in Week 8. However, the Bills defense held Tua to -0.33 EPA per play prior to his injury in Week 2. That’s the sixth-worst game of Tagovailoa’s career with at least 10 dropbacks.
Betting Josh Allen against the Dolphins is typically a winning proposition. The Bills quarterback is 11-2 vs. Miami in his career, with 34 passing touchdowns to just seven interceptions. That includes a 5-2-1 ATS record against Tagovailoa in head-to-head matchups.
You don’t need Buffalo to cover the spread in survivor, but given the Bills’ recent history of success against the Dolphins, they’re a good bet to hold serve at home.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Eagles have won three straight and look like a totally different offense in that span. Philadelphia is averaging 28.3 PPG during the win streak after averaging 21.5 PPG during its 2-0 start. That’s despite the Eagles actually seeing a slight decline in overall offensive success rate (43% to 41%) during their win streak.
A big reason is that Philly has seen significant positive regression in the red zone, increasing its success rate from 47% over the first four weeks to 64% during the win streak, second-best in that span. The Eagles have almost exclusively run the ball in the red area, rushing on 93% of their red zone plays since Week 5.
Now they’ll face a Jaguars defense that ranks 28th in red-zone efficiency this season.
The Eagles should be able to finish enough drives to make them a safe survivor pick playing at home on Sunday.
New Orleans Saints (-7) at Carolina Panthers
The Saints are on a six-game losing streak, but head coach Dennis Allen said that Derek Carr is expected to return for Sunday’s game in Charlotte.
Carr’s return can’t come soon enough for a Saints team that has averaged 15.0 points per game during his three-game absence. That figure would look even worse if not for a 27-point outburst in the second quarter of their Week 6 game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The good news is that any offense can look good against the 2024 Carolina Panthers defense. The Panthers are allowing 33.9 PPG, the second-most through eight games over the last 40 years (the 2018 Bucs allowed 34.4 PPG). That includes New Orleans’ 47-point tsunami in the season-opener, in which Carr led scoring drives on all nine drives he played.
Check the Saints’ injury report to ensure that their starting quarterback is available. If so, New Orleans is a strong play despite its 2-6 record.
