The Chicago Bears will travel to take on the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 45.5)
Two mid-table teams in our PR+ square off in Arizona this week. The Arizona Cardinals have fought and scrapped for two wins that we may look back on as season-saving wins, but it has hardly painted the picture of a convincing team. Three of Arizona’s wins have come by a combined four points, with only the win over the reeling Rams being a blowout.
The Bears have a slight edge on the Cardinals in PR+, sitting 17th compared to 19th. They’ve done it in different ways, with Chicago relying on a second-ranked defense and Arizona relying on an eighth-ranked offense.
Normally, we would give the edge to the defensive team here, but the strength of schedule differences is vast. The Bears have played the second-easiest schedule, with the Cardinals playing the hardest.
We just saw how good the Bears’ defense is at keeping them in games against good offenses. That should be the case again here, and the Cardinals’ defense is worse than the Commanders’ unit.
The schedule disparity concerns me about taking the Bears, especially given that Chicago has yet to beat a team that is not a bottom-feeder this season. This feels like another pass in what could be a fun game.
Prediction: Bears 23, Cardinals 20
Pick: Pass
Bears at Cardinals Game Insights
Chicago Bears
Team: For the first time in the 2000s, the Bears have allowed 21 or fewer points in each of their first seven games of a season.
QB: It’s been a simple story with Caleb Williams – his passer rating is 42.8 points higher when not pressured than when he is this season.
Offense: The Bears didn’t run for even 85 yards in any of their first three games – they’ve cleared 125 rushing yards in all four games since (Week 8 at Washington: season-high 196 rushing yards).
Defense: Bend but don’t break – the Bears haven’t allowed a red zone in two of the past three weeks (that, of course, isn’t going to help when defending Jayden Daniels Hail Marys).
Fantasy: Is there a running back playing better than D’Andre Swift? Over his past four games, he’s produced 33.4% over expectation, averaging 22.6 PPR points per game in the process.
.@DAndreSwift TO THE HOUSE
📺: #CHIvsWAS on CBS pic.twitter.com/jqTPXUtLh0
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) October 27, 2024
Betting: Six straight Bear road games have come in under the closing total.
Arizona Cardinals
Team: The Cardinals are seeking their first three-game win streak since starting the 2021 season 7-0.
QB: Kyler Murray posted a 127.2 in-pocket passer rating against the Dolphins last week, his highest since Week 13, 2021.
Offense: The Cardinals beat the Dolphins last week without leading for a single offensive snap. It’s their second game this season in which every offensive snap came from behind and their second win when they were trailing for over 87% of their offensive snaps (Also: Week 5 at the 49ers).
Defense: Arizona has allowed their opponent to pick up at least half of their third downs in five of the past six games (Dolphins in Week 8: 11-of-15, 73.3%).
Fantasy: Marvin Harrison Jr.’s sliding touchdown catch was a work of art and paid the fantasy bills, but be careful – his 19.4% on-field target share was his lowest since his NFL debut. That said, he was in the slot for a season-high 32.1% of his routes, an encouraging sign of this team’s willingness to move him around.
Betting: Overs are 9-4 in Kyler Murray’s career when he starts in a game with a spread of less than three points.
