The Pittsburgh Steelers dominated the New York Jets last week as Russell Wilson threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns, no turnovers, and suffered only one sack. If Wilson can continue playing like this, the Steelers could be a formidable team considering they already have a top-of-the-line defense and head coach.
The New York Giants were dominated by the Philadelphia Eagles, allowing eight sacks and 16 pressures. The Giants were able to get nothing going on offense, scoring just three points the entire game. The bright side is the defense managed to pressure Jalen Hurts on 52.2% of his dropbacks and sacked him five times.
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Steelers -6 - Moneyline
Steelers (-250); Giants (+205) - Over/Under
36.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m. ET - Location
Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
Giants vs. Steelers Preview and Prediction
The Giants’ offensive line has given up the eighth-most pressures per dropback this season. As I mentioned in last week’s article, the Steelers’ defense being the best in the league has not been from the pass rush. Per Tru Media, the Steelers rank 23rd in pressure generated per drop back and 23rd in sack percentage as well.
Where they excel is in the run game, ranking second in defensive rush EPA (expected points added), fifth in yards allowed per carry before contact, and second in yards allowed per carry after contact.
This isn’t to say they are a slouch in the pass game, ranking 15th in defensive pass EPA despite having the second-most predictable coverage scheme in the league, using Shannon entropy to calculate it. Luckily, they should look much better this week going against a Giants offense that has passed for over 200 yards in only three of seven games this season.
I can’t stress it enough but DeShon Elliott has been worth every dollar and more for the Steelers.
One of the best players on their defense this season. pic.twitter.com/GF1oWG4BAT
— Daniel Valente (@StatsGuyDaniel) October 22, 2024
The Giants’ defense currently ranks 17th in EPA, a stat that might be somewhat misleading. The team has the seventh-lowest percentage of plays with a positive game script and has spent the third-least amount of time holding a lead this season. This situation keeps the Giants’ defense on the field longer than usual, making them more vulnerable over time.
Despite this, the Giants’ defense excels at generating pressure, ranking eighth in the league in pressures while blitzing at a league-average rate. Notably, when they do generate pressure, they rank second in EPA, showing a strong ability to turn pressure into impactful plays.
When the Giants face a team with a solid offensive line that can keep the quarterback clean, they struggle heavily. The Steelers are not one of those teams, ranking fourth in pressure allowed. They also rank sixth in time to throw which means the blame is likely on the quarterback for these pressures. They allow the 11th-lowest quick pressures in the league, confirming that the issue is with the quarterback holding onto the ball for too long.
I am rolling with the Steelers to win this game at -250 odds because they have a defense that can easily shut down the porous Giants offense. While the Giants are decent on defense and are likely to cover the spread, you can’t win many games without scoring.
My pick: Steelers ML (-250); Giants +6 (-110)
