As we head into the final week of October, the NFL weather forecasts will become increasingly intriguing, especially for fantasy football managers. With colder weather, higher winds, and more rain in November and December, knowing which games could be impacted by the weather will be crucial.
Fortunately, Week 8 looks set to be mostly clear around the league, with only a handful of games likely to be impacted by some combination of wind, rain, and cooler temperatures. Let’s take a look at the full NFL weather forecast and the potential fantasy impacts around the league.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 8 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 6 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 80s
- Showers: 10-15% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 14-15 mph northeasterly with gusts up to 20 mph
Miami weather may make the headlines for being warm and comfortable, but it does tend to be a bit wet and windy at this time of year. That could be the case in Week 8, with sustained winds close to 15 mph forecasted and the potential for some rain during the game.
That is frustrating, as the Dolphins’ offense gets Tua Tagovailoa back this week, which should have been a huge boost to their fantasy potential.
Tyreek Hill on the return of Tua Tagovailoa pic.twitter.com/GJcBLGpEBh
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) October 23, 2024
The rain is ultimately the key here because, on its own, wind speeds of 14-20 mph on a clear day generally have minimal fantasy impact, especially when the sustained winds are around the 14-15 mph region. However, once you start adding rain into the mix, that is when there is a bit of a drop-off in fantasy output.
The combination of rain and winds between 14 and 20 mph averages anywhere between a 10 and 25% drop-off in fantasy performance. Therefore, if we are seeing both at kickoff in Miami, fantasy managers might be wise to consider looking elsewhere for any fantasy options they are on the fence about. Rushing output is less impacted than passing/receiving output, so James Conner and De’Von Achane should not be impacted.
The positive aspect to all of this is that the chances of rain in the Miami area are reasonably low, and it should not be sustained heavy rain throughout the game. Therefore, the default here should be to trust any fantasy options you usually would, but just be alert in case of the need to pivot before kickoff.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cincinnati Bengals Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s to Low 60s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph northeasterly
Things are starting to feel chilly in Ohio as we creep deeper into autumn, but it takes the temperatures to drop much further than the 50s to start seeing fantasy impacts on a clear day. While it won’t be particularly warm in Cincinnati, weather conditions will be comfortable enough, and any temperature above 30 doesn’t see a sustained drop in fantasy output.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6 mph northerly
The story in Cleveland is very similar to Cincinnati. With no rain forecast, the weather impact on this game should be negligible. It takes the temperatures to drop much further than the 50s to start seeing fantasy impacts on a clear day. Any temperature above 30 doesn’t see a sustained drop in fantasy output.
Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-7 mph southeasterly
The Jacksonville Jaguars return home to warm and comfortable conditions after spending two weeks in the relatively chilly London weather. There is absolutely nothing for fantasy managers to worry about from a weather perspective in this game. This has the potential to be a back-and-forth game that could be the best fantasy output of the entire day.
New York Jets vs. New England Patriots Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 8 mph westerly
With no rain forecast, the weather impact on this game should be negligible. It takes the temperatures to drop much further than the 50s to start seeing fantasy impacts on a clear day. Any temperature above 30 does not see a sustained drop in fantasy output.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-80s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 6-7 mph northeasterly
With the weather forecast in Tampa Bay this weekend, this game may as well be being played in a dome. Games with temperatures in the 80s average just under 100 total fantasy points per game, with quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers all scoring nicely.
Buffalo Bills vs. Seattle Seahawks Weather
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: >90% chance throughout
- Wind: 15-18 mph southwesterly with gusts up to 23 mph
We can often rely on Seattle to give us some spicy weather from a fantasy perspective. This NFL weather forecast certainly meets those credentials with the trifecta of rain, wind, and cooler temperatures. That combination averages a drop of anywhere between 20 and 30% in terms of fantasy impact, mostly impact quarterbacks and receivers.
The average fantasy output for quarterbacks and receivers drops by at least 20% on average, with numbers trending closer to 30% in some instances. Running backs don’t see a huge change in their fantasy output, so Kenneth Walker III and James Cook should not see any adverse impact.
In terms of your QB and WR options, the only “safe” play here is Josh Allen, who has the ability to use his legs to score points. Geno Smith can scramble but is not as effective as Josh Allen and is a much more risky play in these conditions. It will be hard to trust any receivers in these conditions.
Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 70s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 3-5 mph variable
We couldn’t ask for much more perfect weather conditions than we will have in Denver this weekend. Variable winds can be a problem for kickers, but not at speeds below 5 mph. This game shouldn’t see any impact from the weather, but there aren’t many fantasy options you were starting with high levels of confidence this week anyway.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: High 50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 2-5 mph variable
Despite a scare for Jayden Daniels, it looks like we’ll see the big rookie quarterback showcase in Week 8, and the weather is playing ball for us. This game has all the makings of a shootout as the high-powered Washington Commanders offense will look to overcome its somewhat leaky defense.
With no rain forecast, the weather impact on this game should be negligible. It takes the temperatures to drop much further than the 50s to start seeing fantasy impacts on a clear day. Any temperature above 30 doesn’t see a sustained drop in fantasy output.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Weather
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid to Low 60s
- Showers: 20% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 10-15 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 22 mph
Who would have thought that the worst weather of the weekend could be in Miami and San Francisco in Week 8? That could be the case with wind and rain forecasted, as well as temperatures dropping into the evening in Santa Clara.
The rain is ultimately the key here because, on its own, wind speeds of 14-20 mph on a clear day generally have minimal fantasy impact, especially when the sustained winds are around the 14-15 mph region. However, once you start adding rain into the mix, that’s when there is a bit of a drop-off in fantasy output.
The combination of rain and winds between 14 and 22 mph averages anywhere between a 10 and 25% drop-off in fantasy performance. Rushing output is less impacted than passing/receiving output, so Jordan Mason and Rico Dowdle should not be impacted.
The problem here is that this is a Sunday Night Football game, so unlike in Miami, where we can make a call five minutes before kickoff, any decision likely has to be made hours in advance. It will be hard to bench someone of the quality of CeeDee Lamb, but players with health concerns like Deebo Samuel Sr. or George Kittle are a tough decision for fantasy managers this week.
New York Giants vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Monday
- Expected Temperature: Low 60s to High 50
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-6 mph southeasterly
There should not be any Monday Night Football worries for fantasy managers in Week 8. The conditions look good in Pittsburgh, so unless we see rain creep into the forecast, there’s no reason for concern.
That will be a relief for fantasy managers, who will likely need to make decisions on Malik Nabers, George Pickens, and others on Sunday.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
- Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.