Week 8 is here, and there are no bye weeks, so there will be plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your fantasy football lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 8 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at LAR)
We weren’t 100% sure that Jones would give it a go last week. Any concerns about his health were dashed after exactly one carry, as his first touch was a 34-yard score. The big week resulted in Jones’ fourth game returning starting value to his fantasy managers, and that’s more than enough of a résumé to play him with confidence against the fourth-worst rush defense by EPA in the league.
Four times this season a running back has produced at least 24% over expectation against Los Angeles this season (David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, James Conner, and D’Andre Swift), and with Jones pacing for his best boom/bust season since 2018 (the difference in percentage of carries that gain at least 10 yards with the ones that don’t get past the line of scrimmage), he’s flirting with top-15 status assuming that there are no lasting health concerns.
Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs. KC)
Mattison played 69.3% of the snaps last week, and with multiple receptions in three straight games gives him a little boost, but you’re swimming upstream if you’re banking on this offense in any capacity outside of tight end.
Efficiency has never been a strength of Mattison’s, and that puts him in a position to need a touchdown to earn your trust. That’s not an ideal profile to begin with, let alone for an offense that hasn’t cleared 20 points in over a month.
The Chiefs are winning with defense these days, and they’ve succeeded in shutting down the run in a big way. They’ve faced Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Bijan Robinson this season and have yet to allow an RB to reach 13.5 PPR points.
Mattison is barely on the Flex radar for deep leagues, and that’s saying something for a back I expect to lead his team in carries comfortably.
Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (at LAC)
I got some pushback when I said it a few weeks ago when Kamara was still running hot, but the more time passes, the more I like it.
Isn’t Kamara just expensive Rachaad White but without a Bucky Irving behind him?
Kamara doesn’t have a 10+ yard carry (or a top 15 finish at the position) in three straight games. Over his past four, despite having a pair of rushing touchdowns, the majority (56.9%) of his points have come as a receiver because there simply is nowhere to go on the ground (0.98 yards per carry before contact) behind an iffy offensive line.
Does Kamara magically become efficient on the ground if Derek Carr is back in the mix? I’m skeptical; he doesn’t have a 20-yard run this season and picked up just 3.4 ypc in Carr’s most recent three starts.
Kamara is going to return viable fantasy production because of his role in the passing game, but the ceiling isn’t that of a top-10 option without much efficiency on the ground, and this isn’t the matchup for him to turn around his success rate on handoffs.
You’re playing Kamara, but you need to be aware that the 290-yard, five-touchdown version of him that we saw through two weeks is nothing more than a distant memory.
Antonio Gibson, RB | NE (vs. NYJ)
The Patriots made a big deal of “benching” Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 6, and that resulted in Gibson getting 16 touches. That’s his only game since Week 2 in which he reached double figures in touches. In an offense with plenty of limitations, a lack of volume means a lack of value as the scoring equity is low.
Gibson can be rostered given that he has a consistent role, but it’s not a role I plan on ranking as viable any time soon. If you wanted to move on from him for one of these receivers stepping into a bigger role (be it in Detroit or Tampa Bay), I wouldn’t blame you.
Austin Ekeler, RB | WAS (vs. CHI)
Ekeler hasn’t seen more than two targets in three straight games when Brian Robinson Jr. is active, and I can’t imagine that changes if this team elects to take a cautious approach with Jayden Daniels.
The veteran has looked good in doses this season, but that’s the plan. He’s yet to have a 10-carry contest this season, and that includes a Robinson DNP. Betting on Ekeler is a parlay that I’m not willing to make most weeks and certainly not in a tough matchup like this with no teams on a bye.
Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (at TB)
Robinson has consecutive top-10 finishes after not doing so once through five weeks as it would appear that he is trending in a very profitable direction for those who invested a first round pick on him in August.
The Falcons scored 36 points against the Buccaneers in the Week 5 meeting, but fantasy managers were left wanting more as their star RB had just 77 yards of offense. I’d happily bet him to exceed that production in this spot, as the Bucs have allowed 17+ points to five different running backs this season and will be operating on short rest after trying to tackle Derrick Henry for 60 minutes on Monday night.
Robinson is a real threat to lead the position in scoring this week, and that’ll have me invested in the DFS streets.
Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at NE)
As a season wears on and the games become more important, their rotations become more telling of who they trust.
Allen’s snap shares:
- Week 4 vs. Denver Broncos: 34.3%
- Week 5 at Minnesota Vikings: 25.4%
- Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills: 18.6%
- Week 7 at Pittsburgh Steelers: 9.1%
Allen has shown a level of burst in his opportunities this season, but I think we were all a little over our skis in thinking that this offense could support two running backs. The rookie is a high-end handcuff, and that’s valuable as long as you don’t try wish-casting him as a Flex candidate.
Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at NE)
Hall has been a top-10 producer at the position in both games since the coaching staff change, averaging 155 scrimmage yards, 15 carries, and 7.5 targets across those games. If he sustains that level of usage moving forward, he’ll be positioned to pay off the draft capital you spent on him this season.
Hall totaled 83 yards and a score in the Week 3 win over these Patriots, a stat line that is well within reason to project this weekend when you consider that Joe Mixon, Jordan Mason, and Tank Bigsby all produced more points than that in their New England matchup.
The Patriots allow rushing scores at the fifth-highest rate this season, giving Hall an out, even if his efficiency lags.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. CHI)
With five touchdowns in his past four games and a top-25 ranking in all six games this season, Robinson has proven to be one of the more valuable RBs this season when you factor in his preseason ADP.
I don’t love the fact that Robinson hasn’t seen a target in consecutive games or that he has gone four straight without a 20-yard touch. Those recent struggles position him to bust in this tough matchup should Jayden Daniels sit, though his sheer volume would still have him ranked inside my top 30 in that scenario.
This defense has been one of the five best in the league over the past 12 months, that’s a fact. It’s also true that this defense has allowed production to feature running backs. Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Tony Pollard, and Chuba Hubbard all hit 17.5 PPR points in this matchup, giving me hope that Robinson can be a strong RB2 if this offense is at full strength.
Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. ATL)
In Week 5, the Bucs ran for 160 yards on the Falcons with Rachaad White, Irving, and Baker Mayfield all having a run that picked up at least 15 yards. We didn’t learn much from the Week 7 blowout, but it would appear that Tampa Bay is looking to deploy a committee, something that could render all involved useless.
To my eye (and spreadsheet), Irving has the most juice in this backfield, but it doesn’t matter what I think. I’m not comfortable in projecting any of these backs for RB2 production in this matchup against the third-best defense in terms of running back touchdown rate.
Chase Brown, RB | CIN (vs. PHI)
Brown has established himself as the lead back in Cincinnati, but he’s far from bulletproof, and that’s why he’s nothing more than a low-end RB2 for me this week. In Week 7, Brown picked up just 44 yards on 15 carries, and half of them came on a single outlier carry.
That’s consistent with what we saw in Week 6 as well, and the reliance on a single carry is scary. Over the past two weeks, he has 97 yards on 25 carries. That’s not great — and when you consider that 52 of those yards came on two attempts, it gets even worse from a projectability standpoint. Forty percent of his carries in each of those contents failed to get past the line of scrimmage.
The Eagles’ defense isn’t one I fear, but they’ve been bending and not breaking as they own the lowest RB rushing touchdown rate.
Brown is pretty clearly “the guy” in Cincy, but that doesn’t make him a locked-in fantasy starter.
Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at DEN)
Hubbard has at least 17 touches in five straight games and has finished no worse than an RB2 in six straight. At this point, Hubbard is essentially matchup proof, though there is no denying that his upside looks very different when this team is remotely competitive.
Hubbard hasn’t earned a single target in the two 30-point losses this season, but he has at least four grabs in every other game. I’m not yet worried about the potential impact of Jonathon Brooks, though that does factor into the rest-of-season outlook, as this team could opt to get the rookie up to speed as this lost season comes to an end.
We can cross that bridge when we get to it. The Broncos have allowed the fifth-lowest running back rushing touchdown rate and held Alvin Kamara to just 10 yards on seven carries last week. The matchup puts him on the fringe of RB1 status instead of the middle of it: You’re starting him wherever you have him and continuing to do so until we get a feel for their plan for Brooks.
D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (at WAS)
Swift (Weeks 4-6)
That is the entire list of running backs with three consecutive top-six finishes at the position this season. Not Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, or the I-always-seem-to-get-there-even-if-it’s-ugly Alvin Kamara.
Scroll back up, and you’ll see that Swift’s run of dominance aligns with the growth of his rookie quarterback. If you’re in on Williams continuing to develop, I think you have no choice but to label his workhorse back as a top-15 play moving forward and potentially higher.
Across those three games, Swift has produced 22.2% over expectation (Weeks 1-3: -43.5%) and seen his yards per carry before contact spike by 62.8% despite a rise in loaded boxes as a concentrated effort is being made to slow him down.
Of course, looking at the full picture is the responsible thing to do here. In doing so, you’ll notice that Swift has caught 100% of his targets over this stretch while facing the bottom of the barrel in terms of run defenses (Jaguars, Panthers, and Rams).
That’s why I’m not suggesting that he is a candidate to lead the position in scoring the rest of the way or anything like that, but with his bye week now in the rearview and a favorable run-out during the end of the fantasy season (home games against the Lions and Seahawks in Weeks 16-17), buying “high” on Swift isn’t a bad idea if his current manager is looking to cash in this chip.
Swift is younger than you think (25 years old), and with Chicago’s offense trending in the right direction, this is a stock I’m looking to get exposure to — even at its current-day cost.
David Montgomery, RB | DET (vs. TEN)
He was banged up early last week, and while he returned to action, it was after Jahmyr Gibbs had established himself as a game-wrecker, resulting in the worst game of the season for the veteran (12 touches for 70 yards).
James Cook, D’Andre Swift, and Josh Jacobs all failed to reach 10 fantasy points against this underrated Titans defense, but given the efficiency of this Lions offense, I’m not using that information to downgrade Monty in a significant way.
He (+20.7% over expectation this season, more than double the rate he posted last season) and Jahmyr Gibbs want to be known as Sonic and Knuckles, a nickname that passes the smell test. I’m here for that and everything that touches this Detroit offense right now!
Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at CLE)
Inevitable.
I really can’t think of any word better for Henry than that. He has a 50-yard run in three of his last four games and has scored in every game of his Ravens career. After years in Tennessee where the support around him put the game script in question by way of a one-sided score, Henry is thriving with a Super Bowl contender. There is no reason to think that changes any time soon.
Recent lead RBs vs. Cleveland:
- Chase Brown, Week 7: 53 yards and zero touchdowns on 17 touches
- Saquon Barkley, Week 6: 54 yards and zero touchdowns on 20 touches
Ask me if I’m concerned about that.
Not one bit. I wanted to plant the seed about this defense trending in the right direction, but it’s not actionable this week. Nothing is.
Inevitable.
Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (at PIT)
After missing nearly a month, Singletary returned just in time to see his offensive line get bullied for 60 minutes. His six touches against the Eagles totaled just 21 yards against the Eagles, but that’s not my primary concern. The touch count was the result of the game flow, but the fact that he didn’t get a carry until New York’s fourth drive was a red flag.
I don’t think there are many usable weeks left for the Giants’ backfield and even fewer for Singletary. Tracy is my highest-ranked NYG RB this week, but neither of them ranks inside of my top 30 at the position.
De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (vs. ARI)
The receivers are going to get the majority of the attention with Tua Tagovailoa returning to the field, but let’s not overlook the fact that Achane caught 14 passes in Tagovailoa’s two starts and has totaled just 12 since.
In addition to the role in the passing game, an effective player running this offense stands to benefit Achane in a massive way. Compared to last season, his yards per carry before contact are down 46.8%, an impactful metric for any running back, but specifically one that can score from anywhere if he can get a little momentum.
Last season, Achane produced 54.2% over expectations. He sits at negative 9.9% through seven weeks this season – there was always regression to build in from his rookie campaign, but a middle ground seems like a reasonable expectation once this offense returns to form. That puts Achane back into the RB1 conversation.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (vs. TEN)
Jared Goff was great for the third straight week, but I’d argue that without Gibbs (19 touches for 160 yards and two touchdowns), the Lions wouldn’t have even been competitive with the Vikings last week, let alone victorious.
The second-year back is amazing and has a 20+ yard touch in five straight games. There is no new light I can shed on Gibbs, but I can make you think.
After watching him cripple a few professional athletes last week on his way to the end zone as a part of a 45-yard run, I was left wondering what is more difficult to do: tackle Gibbs in space or Derrick Henry when he is running downhill?
James Conner, RB | ARI (at MIA)
Conner recorded his 1,500th career touch last week, and if you ask the Chargers, he certainly didn’t look like a player with that sort of usage on his legs. He played a huge role in setting up the game-winning field goal and finished the contest with 152 yards on 21 touches against a defense that entered the week with as impressive of a profile as any in the league.
The last four featured running backs against the Dolphins have averaged 18.8 PPR points, and opponents have gained a league-high 45.8% of their yards against Miami on the ground. Father Time might catch up to Conner at some point this season, but I’m a man of data and none of the data accumulated through seven weeks suggests that a cliff is coming for Conner’s fantasy stock.
James Cook, RB | BUF (at SEA)
After Ray Davis impressed in Week 6 with Cook (toe) sidelined, there were some whispers about a committee situation. That, however, didn’t look like the plan as Cook closed out Buffalo’s fourth possession last week with an 11-yard score and he was the only player on the team with a rushing attempt up to that point.
The knock on Cook entering this season was his limitations as a scoring option, but with six TDs over his past five games, those concerns no longer exist. Buffalo has an implied total of 25 points in this game, and I’m going to bet them to go over that number – if my bet cashes, Cook could finish the week as a top-10 performer at the position.
Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (vs. CAR)
Williams looked great in last Thursday night’s blowout of the Saints, and given the direction he is trending, I think it might just be here to stay. Despite three different running backs recording a first-quarter carry for the Broncos, Williams’ star shined the brightest, and that is likely to strengthen his hold on the bell-cow role that we were questioning just a few short weeks ago.
Last week, Williams was on the field for 71% of the snaps when the score differential was single digits. Over the past three weeks, any metric you look at is trending in the right direction.
Weeks 1-4:
- 31.8% fantasy points under expectation
- 7.5% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 1.02 yards per carry before contact
Weeks 5-7:
- 13.5% fantasy points over expectation
- 15.2% of carries gained 10+ yards
- 3.24 yards per carry before contact
We spent the offseason suggesting that Williams being two years removed from the knee injury gave him access to a ceiling far beyond what we saw in 2023. For those who invested, it would appear that this stock is ready to take off.
Even if you don’t believe that the Broncos are a playoff team, the goal of developing Bo Nix is atop their to-do list, and establishing Williams is a big part of that. In Weeks 4-7, Nix has completed 71.4% of his play-action passes with a 100.6 passer rating, a massive leap forward from his numbers through three weeks (59.3% and 56.4).
Williams is easily a top-15 running back this week in a perfect matchup off of the mini-bye. While his production could fade early in November (Ravens/Chiefs in Weeks 9-10), I expect him to make some noise when your fantasy league champion is being decided (Weeks 15-17: Colts, Chargers, and Bengals).
Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (vs. NYG)
In Russell Wilson’s debut, Warren set a season-high in carries (12) and targets (three). The usage is worth keeping in the back of your head, but if Najee Harris’ recent form is sustained (35 carries for 208 yards and two touchdowns), Warren is going to struggle to provide managers with Flex value.
For years, we’ve complained about the most explosive Steeler running back not getting enough work. But are we sure Warren is that? None of his 42 touches this season have gained more than 12 yards, giving Pittsburgh no reason to involve him further.
As this offense evolves with Wilson, maybe Warren’s versatility proves more valuable than it has been up to this point. Until proven otherwise, I’m viewing him as a desperation Flex who isn’t likely to crack my top 30 any time soon.
Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (vs. ARI)
With this backfield at full strength, Wright was an afterthought in Week 7 (season-low 8.8% snap share), and that could prove to be a theme for the rest of the season.
I’m not optimistic that he touches your starting lineup at any point the rest of the way, but I would hold through this week at the very least, understanding that the return of Tua Tagovailoa could come with wrinkles that are specific to him.
J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC (vs. NO)
Dobbins is healthy, and that’s good to see as we approach the midway point in the season, but his production has fallen off a cliff.
- Weeks 1-2: 27 carries for 266 yards (9.9 YPC)
- Weeks 3-6: 68 carries for 212 yards (3.1 YPC)
Of course, there are two sides to every matchup. As much as Dobbins has struggled, I’d argue that the Saints’ run defense is even more alarming. Javonte Williams scored 26.1 points against them last Thursday, coming on the heels of Sean Tucker and Bucky Irving combining for 52.7 points against them in Week 6.
For the season, New Orleans is allowing the most yards per carry before contact to opposing running backs, a flaw that figures to rear its head at some point in this game given the sheer volume of attempts that they are likely to face.
I think Dobbins provides viable numbers this week, and if I’m right on that, I’d be looking to get out of the Dobbins business.
Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (vs. IND)
The only thing Mixon failed to do against the Packers last week was Lambeau Leap. The Green Bay faithful wouldn’t let him plunge into the first row, and that might hurt the ego, but he can’t be feeling too bad after piling up 124 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Mixon has three top-five finishes this season and has been operating at full strength after missing nearly a month. I’ve got my questions about this passing game with Nico Collins on the shelf, but a lack of balance hasn’t been a deal-breaker against the Colts this season.
Over the past three weeks, Tank Bigsby, Tony Pollard, and De’Von Achane have averaged 18.1 PPR points against Indy. This is the only run defense in the league that is a bottom-five defense in terms of running back yards per carry before and after contact this season.
I’m always skeptical about an older back sustaining value as the weather turns, but there are zero concerns in the scope of Week 8.
Jonathon Brooks, RB | CAR (at DEN)
Brooks tore his ACL against TCU on November 11, 2023, and is nearing his NFL debut. How the 1-6 Panthers go about using their second-round pick is anyone’s guess, but for our purposes, things appear to be pretty straightforward.
Chuba Hubbard is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and 17.9 touches per game for Carolina, giving them every excuse to ease in Brooks, understanding that the rookie isn’t going to save their already lost 2024 season. This may not sound ideal for those of us who invested in Brooks this summer, but I actually like how this lines up because it means you don’t have to guess.
You’re benching Brooks. You are in a position to wait and see. Is it possible that Brooks is given enough work to be Flexed with time? It is, but I need to see it, maybe twice, before acting on it. He could well play before the Week 11 bye, but I’d be surprised if he is of fantasy lineup consideration before Thanksgiving.
The idea that Carolina could treat Brooks like Las Vegas did Zamir White last season is my hope and why I’m holding in spots where I have a competitive team. The Raiders used last December as a trial run for what the next season was going to look like. With Hubbard a free agent after this season, there is a path to similar usage.
Jordan Mason, RB | SF (vs. DAL)
Mason entered last week with a shoulder injury, but he wasn’t mentioned on the final injury report and gave us a 25+ yard run for the fourth consecutive week despite posting his worst showing based on expectations this season (-40.6%).
Mason has been fine recently but nowhere near the monster he was to open 2024. He has yet to score in October, and as we near the return of Christian McCaffrey, his days with an elite role appear numbered.
With Dallas ailing on the defensive side of the ball and every pass catcher in San Francisco banged up, this is about as optimal a spot as you could ask for. Only the Commanders have reached the red zone on a higher percentage of their drives than the 49ers (43.7%), and with the Cowboys allowing running back rushing scores at the third highest rate, Mason is deserving of an RB1 label, even despite his recent struggles.
Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (at JAX)
Jacobs’ bizarre streak came to an end last week as he, on his 212th career reception, finally found pay dirt. The 211 scoreless catches are the most to start a career in NFL history and while the score was nice, I was more encouraged by the season-high reception count (five).
Emanuel Wilson has shown well for himself in limited opportunities and is an interesting stash in the deepest of leagues as a handcuff option in a potent offense, but he’s no threat to Jacobs’ weekly role.
Six times this season a running back scored 15 fantasy points against the Jags, and I like Jacobs to make it seven on Sunday.
Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at LV)
Hunt has settled in as the lead back in Kansas City by posting a snap share north of 60% in consecutive contests, and why wouldn’t they continue to trust the veteran? All he has done in those games is turn 49 carries into 180 yards and three scores.
The lack of explosive potential is moderately annoying (none of those carries have gained more than 13 yards), but beggars can’t be choosers; if you added Hunt, you’re turning a weekly profit for the league’s best offense in terms of success rate.
The Raiders have allowed an RB to reach 15.5 fantasy points in every game this season (Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, and Najee Harris all cleared 20 points), due in large part to them allowing the fourth-most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season.
There are plenty of sustainability questions to ask about the Chiefs, but their backfield isn’t one of them. Hunt deserves to be locked into fantasy lineups across the board until otherwise noted (my guess is that he is a top-15 option at the position until we get some sort of update on Isiah Pacheco).
Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (vs. BUF)
Walker has a lot of Saquon Barkley in his game, and we’ve seen it every time he has touched the field this season as he has posted nothing but top-15 finishes. Zach Charbonnet hasn’t proven to be a threat in the least; with Walker showing off his improved versatility every week, there’s little that can talk me off of him as an elite option.
Walker ranks up there with the best running backs in the league. The three best that have faced the Bills this season (De’Von Achane, Derrick Henry, and Breece Hall) have all cleared 21 PPR fantasy points, producing 25.4% over expectation in those games. Buffalo is allowing the third-most yards per carry to running backs before contact and if Walker can find the open field … good luck.
Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. MIN)
Death, taxes, and Williams end-zone dances. He became the sixth player over the past 25 years with a nine-game touchdown streak when he scored from 13 yards out in the second quarter last week. His role in close is as friendly as it gets into the league and with Cooper Kupp expected back, the overall success rate of this offense should tick up for the remainder of the season
The lack of versatility combined with some offensive concerns keeps Williams out of my top tier at the position (Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley). Over his last two games. He has 43 carries and just one target, a rate that is unlikely to improve as this team gets healthier.
Jahmyr Gibbs lit up the Vikings for 32 fantasy points last week, but that was just the third time this season an RB reached double figures against this aggressive unit. My Williams projection this week comes in lighter than weeks past, but not at such a level to knock him out of RB1 status.
Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. NYG)
Harris has posted consecutive games with 100+ rushing yards and a touchdown after not clearing 70 rushing yards OR scoring a touchdown in any of Pittsburgh’s first five games this season. And the advanced numbers tell you exactly what your eyes do.
Najee Harris recorded 21 carries for 102 yards & TD on Sunday night, resulting in his most missed tackles forced on runs this season (7) and his 2nd straight game with positive RYOE (+17).
Harris has amassed +80 RYOE over the last two weeks (2nd in NFL).#NYJvsPIT | #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/ffzTKIDw1Q
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 21, 2024
The shift to Russell Wilson, for me, looks like a net win for Harris. It’s possible that the running lanes aren’t as clear as they were with the threat of Justin Fields breaking contain on the perimeter, but the overall competency of Pittsburgh’s offense, along with Wilson’s limitations on the ground at 35 years old, should have Harris labeled as a strong RB2 moving forward.
He faces a Giants team that just gave up 26.7 fantasy points to Saquon Barkley in his revenge game and allowed him to pick up 5.65 yards per carry after first contact — the most they’ve allowed to a running back in a game this season.
I have Harris ranked ahead of productive players in tough matchups like Alvin Kamara (at Chargers) and Brian Robinson Jr. (vs. Bears).
Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. BAL)
The game script didn’t do us any favors, but I thought Week 7’s usage was a net positive for Chubb’s (35.1% snap share) managers. The former All-Pro received seven of the team’s first 10 handoffs. While those carries only picked up 14 yards, I was happy that they viewed him as their RB1.
He punched across a one-yard score, a role I expect to be his moving forward but don’t assign much value to given the trajectory of this offense. With Deshaun Watson out for the season, we don’t know exactly what to expect in terms of pass rate over expectation, but I would guess that this offense is going to look like what the Chargers do: shorten the game as much as possible.
This, of course, is about as bad a spot as it gets for an offense in disarray trying to work back their bell cow off of a devastating knee injury. I remain somewhat hopeful that Chubb can be Flexed down the stretch this season, but the Ravens’ combination of elite run defense and a potent offense that can eliminate the desire to run the ball altogether is one you’d be wise to avoid.
Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. ATL)
It was White who led this backfield in snap share last week in the one-sided loss to the Ravens, though we did trend toward the three-headed monster that was mentioned following the big Week 6 win against the Saints.
Week 7 snap shares:
- Rachaad White: 47.4%
- Bucky Irving: 35.9%
- Sean Tucker: 19.2%
Irving held the slight edge in the first quarter, and the first half — before Tampa Bay was scripted out of balance — was about as even as you’ll see in a three-way split (White: 44.1%, Irving: 32.4%, and Tucker: 26.5%).
I still think Irving is the most valuable back in town for the remainder of the season, but with the snaps being divided like this in an offense that projects to have far less success this week than the first seven due to their injuries at receiver, I don’t know how you can feel great about playing any of them.
White sits outside of my top 30 this week in the same tier as Tyler Allgeier and Nick Chubb.
Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (vs. ARI)
The veteran running back is the definition of a stash. Mostert has looked fine after missing a month (30 carries for 130 yards across two games), and with Tua Tagovailoa due back, his touchdown-scoring prowess could work him into Flex conversations as the season wears on.
At the moment, however, I’m sitting tight. He lost a fumble last week, and there is some rust to be expected under center. That combination makes returning value a long shot. But is there a world in which, after this week, he is bordering on the top 30 at the position? I think it’s possible, if not likely, and with the Bills, Rams, and Raiders on the docket for Weeks 9-11, you could be rewarded for holding onto him sooner rather than later.
Ray Davis, RB | BUF (at SEA)
Davis slid back into his RB2 role with James Cook active, and that meant zero value. The box score will reflect a touchdown, and it was an impressive one from 16 yards out, but it came with less than two minutes remaining in a blowout victory.
Cook is the lead back in this offense without much question and the only one that can be played with any level of confidence. Davis’ Week 6 explosion earned him the handcuff honors; while that holds value, you’re overthinking things if you’re trying to wedge him into your lineup this week.
Rhamondre Stevensson, RB | NE (vs. NYJ)
Numbers are what you make of them.
Stevenson accounted for 90% of New England’s running back rushing yards last week, averaging 31.9% more yards per carry before contact than he has this season. His target count tripled Antonio Gibson’s, and the Patriots finally scored on their first possession.
Stevenson posted his lowest elusive rating of the season and picked up a total of seven yards after contact on Sunday. He didn’t get a single red-zone touch and finished behind Gibson in receiving yards in a game in which the Patriots were scripted out of the run due to being outscored by 19 points in the second quarter.
See what I mean? Both of those paragraphs are 100% true, and they left you feeling very differently about Stevenson’s outlook. I lean more toward the latter recap as New England seems to be actively trying to avoid featuring him.
Gibson got banged up early (he eventually returned), so it was JaMycal Hasty finishing that first drive with a 16-yard touchdown catch. The third-string running back had more catches in Week 7 than Stevenson had targets, further evidence that the versatile profile we fell in love with is a thing of the past.
This matchup doesn’t scare me as much as it has in the past, but this is a team motivated to see what they have in Drake Maye, not Stevenson. If you’re pressed for a Flex option, these 8-12 touches hold some value, but expecting some sort of resurgence isn’t something I’d bank on.
Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (at SF)
Don’t look now, but the Cowboys have a lead back who you can trust. Yes, I’m well aware that Dowdle doesn’t have a 15-yard carry or a rushing touchdown this season — numbers that I don’t exactly make a habit of targeting.
Thanks to his versatility, however, Dowdle has produced 27.1% more fantasy points over his past three games than expected (eight catches on nine targets for 72 yards and a pair of touchdowns helps).
Defenses are daring the Cowboys to run with one of the lowest loaded box rates against in the league, opting to send as much coverage in CeeDee Lamb’s direction as humanly possible, and who can blame them?
Dallas continues to operate as a top-10 offense in terms of pass rate over expectation, which helps give Dowdle weekly RB2 potential (80% catch rate this season, and his pace from the past month is that of a 51-catch season). With him seemingly having iced Ezekiel Elliott in this RB competition (Elliott had 10 carries in Week 1 and hasn’t cleared eight since), Dowdle doesn’t have a direct line to failure.
This isn’t a great matchup by any means, and that has Dowdle down in my rankings from where he will land most weeks. Nevertheless, his role should have him locked into lineups across the board.
Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (at CIN)
My pick to lead the position in scoring the rest of the way had his way against his former employer last week (187 scrimmage yards and a touchdown), a day that could have been much bigger if not for a pair of Tush Pushes.
When things are going right for Barkley, it’s an amazing watch. He has a run of 55+ yards in three of his past five games, a home run-hitting ability that has guided him to not one, not two, not three, but four top-10 finishes at the position this season.
His featured role should allow him to dominate this week against a defense that, in seven weeks, has allowed eight running backs to score in double figures. Barkley has at least three red-zone touches in five of six games this season, putting him in a position to again be one of the most valuable assets in our game against the seventh-worst red-zone defense in the league.
Derrick Henry or Barkley for the rest of the season: Who ya got?
Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. GB)
Mr. Cartavious Bigsby has been nothing short of phenomenal this season. He’s scored multiple touchdowns in two of his past three games and has at least 90 rushing yards in three of his past four, a stretch that includes a pair of top-10 finishes at the position.
With Travis Etienne Jr. battling a hamstring injury, Bigsby projects as the leading ball carrier against a run defense that allows the third most yards per carry after contact to running backs this season. Joe Mixon hung 26.4 fantasy points on these Packers a week ago, the fifth time in seven weeks an RB has cleared 15 PPR points.
Jacksonville has one path to keep this game close. I’d have Bigsby ranked as a top-15 play if the game flow wasn’t a concern. However, even as a 4.5-point home underdog, he settles comfortably inside of my top 20.
Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at DET)
Pollard has been a top 20 running back in the majority of Tennessee’s games this season, though I can’t help but feel he is on borrowed time. Due to a lack of respect for this passing game, 40.4% of his carries this season have come against loaded boxes, resulting in less than a foot gained per carry before contact.
That’s a dangerous line to walk, especially for a team that is a serious risk to be scripted out of their ground attack this week. That said, an Aidan Hutchinson-less version of this defense proved to have some holes in it last week (their second play was a 34-yard cutback touchdown by Aaron Jones), and that could be the case moving forward.
The Lions allow rushing scores to opposing running backs at the fourth-highest rate this season, a metric that keeps Pollard inside my top 20, even if I have lasting concerns. Tyjae Spears (hamstring) could return to action this week, but with just one game of more than eight touches, I’m not overreacting to the status of Tennessee’s RB2.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (vs. GB)
It hasn’t been a fun first seven weeks if you ponied up for Etienne during the summer. Across most sites, his ADP landed in the top 10 at the position. Hopefully, the rest of your team has picked up the slack.
After flirting with 1,500 scrimmage yards last season and scoring 12 times, Etienne doesn’t have a finish better than RB20 this season, has seen his second-year backup thrive, and is now dealing with a soft tissue injury.
Awesome.
I’d love to tell you it gets better moving forward, but I’m not sure I believe it. Even if he proves healthy and wins his lead role back (two very big “ifs” at this point), are we sure that the RB1 in Jacksonville is going to matter by the time that happens?
- Week 12: BYE
- Week 13: vs. Houston Texans
- Week 14: at Tennessee Titans
- Week 15: vs. New York Jets
- Week 16: at Las Vegas Raiders
- Week 17: vs. Tennessee Titans
There are three touch matchups in there, and the one advantageous spot (Week 16) could come with your season on the line, asking you to trust a player you theoretically haven’t played for weeks. Heck, you can’t even catch the second Colts matchup, an obviously a good spot, until Week 18 when most leagues are done.
You’ll have to track Etienne’s hamstring throughout this week, but more for the value of Tank Bigbsy than anything. Etienne is firmly in the need-to-see-it-before-believing-it tier, along with about a dozen running backs that are putting our collective minds in a pretzel.
Trey Benson, RB | ARI (at MIA)
For a moment there, Benson looked like patient fantasy managers were going to be onto something. Across two games, he ran 14 times for 76 yards and showed some level of juice that we projected upon him when the Cardinals took him 66th overall in April.
Week 7, however, dashed any of those dreams. He ranked third in this backfield in snaps, and James Conner looked as fresh as he has all season. If you play in a league with deep benches, Benson remains a stash due to the checkered health history of Conner. But he’s more of a luxury than a mandatory roster filler right now as you try to position yourself for a playoff berth.
Trey Sermon, RB | IND (at HOU)
Sermon entered the season labeled as the proper Jonathan Taylor handcuff, and when the starter suffered a high ankle sprain, the fantasy community flocked to add the former Buckeye.
Three weeks into this experiment, it’s clear that the Colts and fantasy managers alike are moving on. Sermon is seeing his snap edge over Tyler Goodson evaporate (52.5% snap share last week), and for good reason:
Sermon’s production, Weeks 5-7:
- -33% production below expectation
- 0.3 yards per carry before contact
- 0.6 points per touch
Goodson’s production, Weeks 5-7:
- 5% production over expectation
- 2.2 yards per carry before contact
- 0.9 points per touch
Sermon has earned more than a single target just once this season, lacking the versatility it takes to return any sort of value in a committee situation.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
A healthy version of Spears would be interesting in a spot like this, as Tennessee is an 11.5-point underdog in Detroit, but we just can’t be confident in that. The second-round pick missed last week with a hamstring injury, which had some reporters close to the team wondering if the Tulane product would be placed on injured reserve.
He’s avoided that designation, but what motivation do the Titans have to extend his role? Tony Pollard averages three catches per game and has been used as a bellcow all season (over 15 carries in five of six games).
Spears is a talented player, but talent alone doesn’t pay the fantasy bills. He doesn’t have a consistent role, and this offense struggles to get into scoring position. The math simply doesn’t work out enough to put him on Flex radars.
Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (at TB)
Week 7 was the Bijan Robinson show (21-5 carry edge; 5-1 target edge), and I don’t see a reason for this offense to pivot off of that game plan.
That’s not to say that Allgeier hasn’t been impressive this season — he has. Despite just one game with double-digit carries, he has a rush of 15+ yards in four of seven games. The talent is there, and my trust in the offense is real, but there aren’t enough touches in this offense for him to hold stand-alone value with a healthy Robinson.
You’re keeping him rostered in all formats. Allgeier would be a strong RB2 if Robinson were to go down, and that’s the type of player you want to have access to as we turn the corner on the first half of the fantasy season with an eye on the playoffs.
Tyler Goodson, RB | IND (at HOU)
As previously mentioned, Goodson has earned the right to be the featured back in this offense when Jonathan Taylor is out. He scored his first career touchdown last week (seven-yard run) and, despite limited usage, has a run of 17+ yards in each of his past three games.
All signs are pointing in the right direction, but there are still plenty of risks we need to consider. Goodson didn’t see a target last week, and there isn’t much hope in that regard given Anthony Richardson’s limitations. In a perfect matchup, a Flex ranking would be possible, but with running backs as a whole producing 7.3% under fantasy expectations against the Texans this season, not to mention a negative game script, I’m not touching this backfield.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (at PIT)
The rookie got New York’s first carry last week, but little can be gleaned from the blowout loss at the hands of the Eagles.
Breece Hall scored 26.1 PPR points on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, the first running back to reach 20 points against the Steelers this season. That said, they’ve allowed at least 17.5 PPR points to a running back in each of the past four weeks (in addition to Hall, Alexander Mattison, Rico Dowdle, and Jonathan Taylor all got there). The run defense might be a touch overrated, though that’s more noteworthy in future weeks than this one.
I like the idea of holding Tracy as I still think he leads this backfield down the stretch, but in a committee in an offense with an implied total of 15 points, there’s no way to feel good about plugging in Tracy this week.
Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (vs. BUF)
With Walker playing at an elite level, Zach Charbonnet’s role is trending in the wrong direction and has him labeled as nothing more than a handcuff. Don’t get me wrong, Charbonnet holds value in that regard, but there’s no more hope that he can hold value on his own.
Skeptics will question his upside even when extended (57 carries this season, and none have gained more than 13 yards), but the volume Charbonnet was given in those instances was enough to project him as a top-20 producer at the position.
As long as Walker is on the field, Charbonnet is on your bench. Easy.
Zack Moss, RB | CIN (vs. PHI)
This backfield is moving away from Moss. While he still needs to be rostered, that might not be the case for much longer. He hasn’t reached double-digit carries in three straight games (12+ in each of the previous three), and none of his 69 carries this season have gained more than 16 yards.
Moss’ snap shares vs. Chase Brown:
- Week 5 vs. Ravens: Moss holds a 67.7%-32.3% advantage
- Week 6 at Giants: Moss holds a 46.2%-61.5% disadvantage
- Week 7 at Browns: Moss holds a 49.1%-58.5% disadvantage
The Eagles have allowed just one RB rushing touchdown this season, taking away from Moss’ profile, which was thin to begin with.
Zamir White, RB | LV (vs. KC)
It was only last winter when White got a trial run as Vegas’ lead back and had us all buying in. None of us thought he was a league winner, but we saw the Raiders give White plenty of work, and their offseason moves suggested that they were plenty comfortable with him as “the guy” in 2024.
He didn’t last until Halloween.
White played just 13.3% of the snaps last week against the Rams, ranking behind both Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. White averages under four yards per carry during his 2.5 seasons in the NFL and has yet to showcase a versatile skill set. That means that opportunity count is his only path to matter for us and something that he is no longer earning.
Fantasy football is a never-ending game of chasing volume, so if you want to keep an eye on this backfield (or you’d like to check out this section weekly as I keep an eye on it for you), that’s fine. Neither Mattison nor Abdullah have impressive track records, so it wouldn’t surprise me if this situation was influx on a weekly basis. In above-average offenses, I’m willing to stash players in such a spot and hope.
This is not an above-average offense.