The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 8 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Here’s a fun note to stick in your pocket for the week — Mayfield has more top-two finishes at the position this season (four) than Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen combined (three).
As much as I like what Mayfield has done with Tampa Bay’s offense this season, dialing back his average depth per throw by 27.9% in the name of efficiency and trusting his supporting cast to make plays simply isn’t the offense that will take the field this week against the eighth-best per-pass defense in the NFL.
These two teams played in an instant classic in Week 5, a 36-30 comeback win for the Falcons in overtime. In that game, Kirk Cousins’ 509 passing yards was the standout stat line, but Mayfield completed 19 of 24 passes with three scores and no interceptions.
I expect this game to look nothing like that, given that the Bucs will be without both of their star receivers. If Tampa Bay is going to remain competitive in this one, they’ll have to play a very Chargers brand of football. And if you keep reading or have common sense, you’ll realize that can work for NFL teams but not fantasy investors in the passing game.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have accounted for 45.9% of the Buccaneers’ targets, 49% of their receiving yards, and 61.1% of their receiving scores. Mayfield and this coaching staff will have a game plan to play to the strengths of their healthy options, but the fantasy risk far outweighs the reward in a short week as this team tries to build this plane while they fly it.
Bucky Irving, RB
In Week 5, the Bucs ran for 160 yards on the Falcons with Rachaad White, Irving, and Baker Mayfield all having a run that picked up at least 15 yards. We didn’t learn much from the Week 7 blowout, but it would appear that Tampa Bay is looking to deploy a committee, something that could render all involved useless.
To my eye (and spreadsheet), Irving has the most juice in this backfield, but it doesn’t matter what I think. I’m not comfortable in projecting any of these backs for RB2 production in this matchup against the third-best defense in terms of running back touchdown rate.
Rachaad White, RB
It was White who led this backfield in snap share last week in the one-sided loss to the Ravens, though we did trend toward the three-headed monster that was mentioned following the big Week 6 win against the Saints.
Week 7 snap shares:
- Rachaad White: 47.4%
- Bucky Irving: 35.9%
- Sean Tucker: 19.2%
Irving held the slight edge in the first quarter, and the first half — before Tampa Bay was scripted out of balance — was about as even as you’ll see in a three-way split (White: 44.1%, Irving: 32.4%, and Tucker: 26.5%).
I still think Irving is the most valuable back in town for the remainder of the season, but with the snaps being divided like this in an offense that projects to have far less success this week than the first seven due to their injuries at receiver, I don’t know how you can feel great about playing any of them.
White sits outside of my top 30 this week in the same tier as Tyler Allgeier and Nick Chubb.
Chris Godwin, WR
- Through seven weeks, Godwin has five top-24 finishes — more than Ja’Marr Chase.
- Through seven weeks, Godwin has three top-10 finishes — more than Justin Jefferson.
- Through seven weeks, Godwin has produced 28.1% above expectation — higher than Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Simply put, Godwin was pacing for a career year in his eighth NFL season and carrying fantasy teams along for the ride. Those dreams are now a thing of the past, and managers will need to pivot until next year when we all hope that Godwin returns to this elite form and we can again enjoy watching him put defenders on skates.
Godwin led the Buccaneers in receiving yards in the Week 5 loss against these Falcons, thanks to his success out of the slot, a role that will be filled by a few players (Sterling Shepard being my favorite in terms of fantasy value).
The injury bug has been out in full force of late, but you can’t mourn what your team could have been. You have to adjust on the fly and do your best to cover up the gaping hole left on your roster.
Yes, a waiver wire move will help, but this isn’t about finding a 1-for-1 replacement; that isn’t going to happen. You have to reevaluate your team and adjust your lineup-setting mindset accordingly.
- Is your team deep enough to absorb this injury?
- Do you need to make a trade?
- Do you need to take more weekly risks to keep up in matchups?
I can’t answer those questions for you, but this is the reason we have bench spots and why we encourage you to constantly look for ways to improve your roster. Godwin’s injury is an impactful one, but it doesn’t have to tank your season.
Jalen McMillan, WR
Few things prevent Mike Evans from catching touchdown passes, but it would appear that the current state of his right hamstring is one of them. On Monday night, he dropped a 24-yard touchdown pass. While drops happen to everyone, he appeared to grab for his hamstring before the ball even hit the ground.
Whether or not he misses time will impact McMillan’s target profile, but with Chris Godwin on the shelf, the playing time appears to be locked in for the third-round rookie.
McMillan was drafted by the Bucs with the idea of him playing Robin to Evans’ Batman on the perimeter with Godwin soaking up the slot usage. That’s how he’s been used this season, albeit on very limited reps.
Percentage of targets coming on the perimeter:
- Evans: 64.4%
- McMillan: 60%
- Godwin: 30.6%
- Otton: 2.4%
This role has increased in value given the rash of injuries in Tampa Bay. He has a decent runway in Week 8 against a Falcons defense that ranks bottom five in the league in terms of defending the perimeter in passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown rate.
The Bucs will look different this week than they have through the first seven, and that likely comes with it a new playbook. But McMillan is my favorite of the secondary options in this offense, and he’s a viable Flex play in most leagues, though it could be tough sledding after this week with the Chiefs and the 49ers up next before a Week 11 bye.
Mike Evans, WR | TB
Mike Evans caught his 100th career touchdown pass on Tampa Bay’s first drive last week and had a chance at No. 101. Yet, his bulky hamstring was grabbing at him as he went to make the catch, resulting in his night ending early.
I’m no injury expert, but NFL players are some of the toughest our species has to offer, so the fact that he was in agony and it prevented him from scoring, I’m not counting on having Evans in the short term at the very least (Week 11 bye).
We can circle back to this situation should he recover at hyper-speed, but Jalen McMillan profiles as the role replacement, though you’re asking a lot for the rookie to step in and mirror what the future Hall of Famer does.
Sterling Shepard, WR
The game script got away from Tampa Bay a bit on Monday night. That impacted a snap count for Shepard that, before Week 7, was on the up-and-up.
Shepard’s snap share:
- Week 4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: 63.5%
- Week 5 at Atlanta Falcons: 66.7%
- Week 6 at New Orleans Saints: 75%
This season, Chris Godwin has been among the most effective slot options in the sport (34 catches on 41 targets for 450 yards and four scores, producing 43.2% over fantasy expectation), a role that Shepard will now be asked to fill.
Fortunately, the ramp-up period for the former Giant has been taking place over the past month, and he should be ready to replace Godwin’s snap share. But asking him to fill those production shoes is a bit much.
That said, the Falcons allow the highest slot completion percentage in the league, giving Shepard some projectable volume that could turn into PPR Flex value in a pinch. He deserves to be rostered across all formats given how this Buccaneers offense functions (third in pass rate over expectation).
Still, expectations need to be measured as we are talking about a 31-year-old receiver who has had his own troubles staying on the field (67 catches in 30 appearances since the start of 2021.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Game Insights
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons have the league’s worst average starting field position (their own 26.8-yard line).
QB: Is Kirk Cousins getting a hang of this system? Over the past three weeks, he’s completed 70.4% of passes when blitzed (Weeks 1-4: 46.7%).
Offense: Despite the one-sided loss to the Seahawks last week, the Falcons have improved their third down conversion rate in four straight games. In Weeks 1-3, they converted 22.2% of third downs, a rate that has improved to 46.2% since.
Defense: The Falcons (50.7%) and Panthers (55.8%) are the only teams in the league allowing points on most drives this season.
Fantasy: Drake London is starting to live up to the promise when he entered the NFL – he’s been a top 20 fantasy receiver in five of the past six weeks.
Betting: Kirk Cousins has covered five straight road games (his last three with Minnesota and his first two with Atlanta).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: This is Tampa Bay’s fourth home game in a six-week stretch – they go on the road for five of seven contests from Week 9-Week 16.
QB: Baker Mayfield’s fourth red zone pass of Week 7 was intercepted by Marlon Humphrey. In Weeks 1-6, he was nearly perfect inside the 20-yard line: 20-of-25 with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Offense: The Buccaneers have scored on their opening drive in four straight games, allowing this team to play with a lead more often than not.
Defense: Tampa Bay has been outscored 44-7 in second quarters over the past two games (in the other three quarters of those games, they’ve outscored the opposition 75-24).
Fantasy: Mike Evans left Week 7 with a hamstring injury that had his status in question mid-week – he turned seven targets into 23.2 PPR fantasy points against the Falcons in their Week 5 meeting.
Betting: On short rest, Baker Mayfield is 2-3 ATS when playing on the road (5-1 ATS in such spots at home).