There’s only one undefeated team left, and that’s the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Company take to the road in Sin City to face the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders. Here are the picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Chiefs (-10.5, 41) at Raiders Odds and Betting Lines, 4:25 p.m. ET
Katz: I was hoping to play Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards under, but he has a stranglehold on the RB1 job and the line was just too little at 40.5. My concern was he could get there on raw volume, despite being inefficient against a great run defense. That brings us to Zamir White.
The Raiders’ former lead back did not lose his job due to injury. Mattison played better. After returning last week, White earned himself all of three carries in a game that was competitive throughout.
This week, the Raiders project to face negative game script against a Chiefs run defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry.
White played 11 total snaps last week. He was not only behind Mattison, but behind Ameer Abdullah as well. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if he didn’t touch the ball this week.
Pick: Zamir White under 11.5 rushing yards
Soppe: One team brings in a star receiver while the other lets one walk. The Chiefs continue to win by the slimmest of margins, and that makes laying a big number difficult, but we do have a nice trend when it comes to the total.
Overs are 8-3 (72.7%) over Mahomes’ past 11 road divisional starts, and we have a few avenues to cashing this ticket. If this game is tight, that means that the Raiders put some points on the board, and we know the Chiefs can score late (27% more points per drive in the final 15 minutes than the first 45 this season).
Gardner Minshew II is back under center for the Raiders, and his style of play is more favorable for betting an over given his wider range of outcomes. He’s an aggressive QB who will push the envelope, and that’s all we can ask for — whether it works or not, it helps the scoring environment.
Pick: Over 41
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs haven’t lost consecutive games to the Raiders since 2011-12 (three straight). Kansas City’s last loss before its current 12-game win streak (including playoffs) was at home to the Raiders on Christmas Day, 2023.
QB: Twenty-three quarterbacks have started all their team’s games this season. Mahomes’ TD-INT ratio (6-8) is tied for the worst out of that whole group (Matthew Stafford has thrown three TDs to four INTs for the Los Angeles Rams).
Offense: Are the Chiefs a smash-mouth offense now? Kansas City has run by design on 48.8% of its plays, far and away its highest in any season since Mahomes became the starting QB (the previous high was 38.9% in 2018). That includes a 57.9% run rate on first downs, and the first season with Mahomes they’ve been above 50% on first downs.
Defense: The Chiefs have allowed a touchdown on just 47.4% of red-zone trips, pacing them for their best rate since the 2014 team (38.9%).
Fantasy: This is a conservative offense, but as Xavier Worthy’s role increases, there is hope — Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his passes thrown 15+ yards down the field.
Betting: Seven of Kansas City’s past eight road divisional games have come in under the projected point total, though the one exception was Week 12, 2023 … at Vegas (31-17 win with a total of 42.5 points).
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders own the worst per-game turnover differential in the league this season (-1.9).
QB: Minshew has two more games with multiple interceptions than multiple touchdown passes this season and misfired on 19 of 34 passes last week against a vulnerable Rams defense.
Offense: Brock Bowers has received 25.1% of the Raiders’ targets this season. That’s on track to be the highest target share by any rookie tight end since at least 2000 and the highest by a TE period since Mark Andrews for the 2021 Baltimore Ravens (25.9%).
Defense: The Raiders own the fifth-highest sack rate on play-action attempts this season (8.9%).
Fantasy: Bowers has five top-five finishes at the position this season, and after not seeing a red-zone target in any of his first three games, he’s had a target in scoring position in every game since.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in four of Vegas’ past five home games (2-1 through seven weeks this season).
Minshew to Bowers!
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