The Kansas City Chiefs are set to make a move that was widely predicted — they will add a veteran wide receiver option, with DeAndre Hopkins on his way via trade. The Chiefs have dealt with a couple of major wide receiver injuries, with both Hollywood Brown and Rashee Rice missing for the 2024 season. Therefore, they were always likely to be in the market for a receiver at some point.
The big question was how bold they could be. Rumors were swirling that a reunion with Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill could be on the table, while a number of other receivers had been linked. Hopkins is an interesting choice because, at this stage of his career, he is not the number one option we thought they may go after.
Let’s look at what Hopkins adds to the Chiefs and what it means for the Chiefs’ playoff and Super Bowl chances.
Why Did the Chiefs Trade for DeAndre Hopkins?
What Hopkins adds to this offense is somewhat hard to decipher. He is clearly not the same receiver he was in his prime, but that was almost 10 years ago, so that is hardly a surprise. However, Hopkins was still a 1,000-yard receiver in 2023, even if some of the skills have dropped off a bit.
Last year proved that Hopkins can still handle a full season’s workload. After playing just 19 games in the previous two seasons in Arizona, he played all 17 games in 2023, even playing through some injury concerns. He was still able to average 14.1 yards per reception and make plays after the catch, averaging 3.0 yards after the catch per reception.
The concern around Hopkins last year was that his catch rate dropped from 69.1%, where it was during his time in Arizona, to 54.7%. However, not all of that was on him, with some erratic quarterback play from the combination of Will Levis and Ryan Tannehill. Most importantly, his drop rate was under 3%, having been above that the season before.
Highlights from @DeAndreHopkins first season as a Titan 🔥 pic.twitter.com/oTuznKGNjR
— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) February 19, 2024
It is hard to read too much into his performances this year because Hopkins has only been targeted 21 times at an average of 3.5 per game in the Titans’ offense. That means his 71.4% catch rate and 4.8% drop rate are based on small sample sizes of 15 receptions and one drop.
Hopkins’ catch rate over expectation has been down over the 2022 to 2024 season compared to the three years prior, which is a concern, but the numbers have not dropped off to a point where he risks being a disaster when targeted.
Hopkins is getting a massive upgrade in quarterback with this move. Kyler Murray and Deshaun Watson were both good quarterbacks when he played with them, but Patrick Mahomes is a class above. That should offer Hopkins more consistency in terms of the quality of passes.
What Hopkins does with those targets is the tough part to decipher. He should be viewed as a reliable veteran addition that will stabilize the offense as opposed to taking it to another level.
How Much Does the Trade for Hopkins Impact the Super Bowl Race?
Relatively, the trade for Hopkins does little to impact the Chiefs’ overall playoff and Super Bowl odds. After starting 6-0, the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor already gave the Chiefs a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 93.4% chance of winning the division.
Those percentages ticked up a tiny bit, but not significantly enough to make any real difference, given how high they already were (99.9% and 93.6%).
The Chiefs have bolstered their offense by trading for WR DeAndre Hopkins, but the Super Bowl race remains tight.
Per the PFN Playoff Predictor, Kansas City has a 13.9% chance to win it all — the fourth-highest in the league, trailing the Lions, Vikings, and Ravens. pic.twitter.com/zqqldsNFL6
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 23, 2024
Per the playoff predictor, the Chiefs have a 22.5% chance of making the Super Bowl (up from 21.2%) and a 13.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl (up from 13.8%). They currently sit fourth in our projections of who will win the Super Bowl, behind the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, and Baltimore Ravens, who all sit higher this season in our Power Rankings+ standings.
This trade is less about boosting an offense that was already sixth in our Offense+ standings and more about sustaining it. As injuries mounted, the Chiefs’ offense had to get more creative and rely on lesser-talented players at the position. Despite his age, Hopkins remains a very talented receiver and gives this offense another consistent outlet to target.
DeAndre Hopkins Trade Details and Compensation
The Chiefs have given up relatively little for Hopkins. The deal starts as a fifth-round pick but will elevate to a fourth-round pick if the Chiefs make the Super Bowl and Hopkins plays 60% of the snaps.
Giving up a Day 3 pick for a veteran receiver who remains a reliable, if no longer explosive, option is solid business from the Chiefs. Sure, Day 3 picks are valuable, but the impact of a Round 4 or Round 5 pick is relatively negligible and certainly will not help them in the 2024 season. Hopkins helps them right now as they seek a third-straight Super Bowl.
Chiefs WR Depth Chart
The Chiefs’ depth chart at WR was looking incredibly thin. Before this trade, the projected starters were JuJu Smith-Schuster, Xavier Worthy, and Justin Watson. They also have Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore on the roster. However, Smith-Schuster injured his hamstring at the weekend and was set to miss Week 8.
That could have left the Chiefs relying on practice squad options of either Cornell Powell, Nikko Remigio, Justyn Ross, or Montrell Washington to provide them with depth this week. They may still elevate one of those if Hopkins is not fully up to speed with the playbook by Sunday’s game.
Fantasy Impact of Hopkins Moving to Kansas City
Since joining the Titans, Hopkins ranks 43rd of 55 qualifiers in terms of fantasy efficiency on deep passes. You could write that off to a receiver being on the wrong side of 30 years old, but with Calvin Ridley ranking 46th on that list, it’s more likely that the struggles down the field are the result of the offensive environment in Tennessee than anything. For reference, Hopkins ranked 25th of 89 qualifiers during his three seasons with the Cardinals despite battling various injuries.
Mahomes is completing a career-high 53.6% of his deep passes, making this an advantageous spot for a receiver who might have more gas left in the tank than his current stat line suggests. However, there’s some concern with Mahomes averaging just 4.7 deep pass attempts per game (pacing for a career-low with ease, career average: 7.3 such attempts).
This trade could end our efforts to start Xavier Worthy. The rookie burner has seen 31% of his targets (and 65.7% of his production as a pass catcher) this season come deep downfield. The Chiefs still have five games remaining against top-10 defenses in terms of passer rating allowed deep downfield, making supporting two splash play threats a tall ask for a team that isn’t as open as it has been in years past.
Hopkins could get rolling over the next two months, but managers need to be aware that two of those tough matchups downfield come in Weeks 16-17 (the Texans and Steelers rank third and sixth, respectively, against long passes through seven weeks).
Hopkins’ Contract Details
Hopkins’ contract has one year remaining, and the overall value for 2024 was $18.31 million against the cap. That was made up of $1.96 million in prorated signing bonus, $8.27 million of salary, a $4.46 million roster bonus, and $1.02 million in per-game bonuses. There is also a further $2.35 million that is incentive-based.
The Titans have already handled a lot of the $18.31 million in cap, leaving just over $5.5 million to pay for Hopkins this year. There is just over $5 million in salary remaining, $660,000 in per-game bonuses and $2.35 million in incentives. Rapaport reported that the Titans would absorb roughly half of the remaining salary, and a new contract needed to be signed to execute this deal.
The Titans will have a cap obligation of at least $10.25 million in 2024 and then a dead cap hit in 2025, as they will have the remaining $5.889 million that would have hit their cap if Hopkins’ deal had been voided after the 2024 season as planned.
Tennessee’s financial obligations in 2025 will be impacted by the precise dollar amount of his deal that they are picking up, a figure that will likely paid as a signing bonus that will hit the cap in 2025.